Threats from Climate Change to Terrestrial Vertebrate Hotspots in Europe

PLoS ONE

Volumn 8, Issue 9, 2013, Pages

  Maiorano, Luigi ^a,b   Amori, Giovanni ^c   Capula, Massimo ^d   Falcucci, Alessandra ^b   Masi, Monica ^b   Montemaggiori, Alessandro ^b   Pottier, Julien ^a   Psomas, Achilleas ^e   Rondinini, Carlo ^b   Russo, Danilo ^f   Zimmermann, Niklaus E ^e   Boitani, Luigi ^b   Guisan, Antoine ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE   (Switzerland)

^b SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

^c CNR   (Italy)

^d Museo Civico di Zoologia   (Italy)

^e SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

^f UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES FEDERICO II   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AMPHIBIA; ARTICLE; BIODIVERSITY; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; EUROPE; EXPOSURE; MAMMAL; NONHUMAN; REPTILE; SPECIES RICHNESS; TERRESTRIAL SPECIES; THREAT; TURKEY (REPUBLIC); VERTEBRATE;

ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; MODELS, THEORETICAL; VERTEBRATES;

EID: 84884177769     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0074989     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Brook BW, Sodhi NS, Bradshaw CJA, (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends Ecol Evol 23: 453-460. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.011. PubMed: 18582986.
2. Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley PW, Thuiller W, Courchamp F, (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol Lett 15: 365-377. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x. PubMed: 22257223.
3. Réale D, McAdam AG, Boutin S, Berteaux D, (2003) Genetic and plastic responses of a northern mammal to climate change. Proc Biol Sci 270: 591-596. doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2224. PubMed: 12769458.
4. Maiorano L, Falcucci A, Zimmermann NE, Psomas A, Pottier J, et al. (2011) The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 366: 2681-2692. doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0121. PubMed: 21844047.
5. Maiorano L, Cheddadi R, Zimmermann NE, Pellissier L, Petitpierre B, et al. (2013) Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 22: 302-317. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00767.x.
6. Charmantier A, McCleery H, Cole LR, Perrins C, Kruuk LEB, et al. (2008) Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320: 800-803. doi:10.1126/science.1157174. PubMed: 18467590.
7. Lavergne S, Mouquet N, Thuiller W, Ronce O, (2010) Biodiversity and climate change: integrating evolutionary and ecological responses of species and communities. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 41: 321-350. doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144628.
8. Beaumont LJ, Pitman A, Perkins S, Zimmermann NE, Yoccoz NG, et al. (2011) Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108: 2306-2311. doi:10.1073/pnas.1007217108. PubMed: 21262825.
9. Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Kent J, (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403: 853-858. doi:10.1038/35002501. PubMed: 10706275.
10. Catullo G, Masi M, Falcucci A, Maiorano L, Rondinini C, et al. (2008) A gap analysis of Southeast Asian mammals based on habitat suitability models. Biol Conserv 141: 2730-2744. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.08.019.
11. Pullin AS, Báldi A, Can OE, Emre Can O, Dieterich M, et al. (2009) Conservation focus on Europe: major conservation policy issues that need to be informed by conservation science. Conserv Biol 23: 818-824. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01283.x. PubMed: 19627313.
12. Maiorano L, Falcucci A, Boitani L, (2008) Size-dependent resistance of protected areas to land use change. Proc Biol Sci 275: 1297-1304. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1756. PubMed: 18319213.
13. Williams JW, Jackson ST, (2007) Novel climates, no-analog plant communities, and ecological surprises: past and future. Front Ecol Environ 5: 475-482. doi:10.1890/070037.
14. Ohlemüller R, Anderson SJ, Araújo MB, Butchart SHM, Kudrna O, et al. (2008) The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change. Biol Lett 4: 568-572. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0097. PubMed: 18664421.
15. Thuiller W, Lavergne S, Roquet C, Boulangeat I, Lafourcade B, et al. (2011) Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe. Nature 470: 531-534. doi:10.1038/nature09705. PubMed: 21326204.
16. Huntley B, Collingham YC, Willis SG, Green RE, (2008) Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds. PLOS ONE 3: e1439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001439. PubMed: 18197250.
17. Devictor V, van Swaay C, Brereton T, Brotons L, Chamberlain D, et al. (2012) Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nat Clim Chang 2: 121-124. doi:10.1038/nclimate1347.
18. Mackey B, Lindenmayer D, (2001) Towards a hierarchical framework for modelling the spatial distribution of animals. J Biogeogr 28: 1147-1166. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.2001.00626.x.
19. Maiorano L, Falcucci A, Garton EO, Boitani L, (2007) Contribution of the Natura2000 network to biodiversity conservation in Italy. Conserv Biol 21: 1433-1444. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00831.x. PubMed: 18173467.
20. Araújo MB, Alagador D, Cabeza M, Nogués-Bravo D, Thuiller W, (2011) Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecol Lett 14: 484-492. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x. PubMed: 21447141.
21. Olson DM, Dinerstein E, (1998) The global 200: a representation approach to conserving the Earth's most biologically valuable ecoregions. Conserv Biol 12: 502-515. doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1998.012003502.x.
22. Davis SD, Heywood VH, Hamilton CA, (1994) Centres of plant diversity: a guide and strategy for their conservation. Vol. 1, Europe, Africa, South West Asia and the Middle East. Cambridge: WWF and IUCN. 354pp.
23. Hagemeijer EJM, Blair MJ, (1997) The EBCC atlas of European breeding birds: their distribution and abundance. London: T & A D Poyser. 903pp.
24. Sindaco R, Jeremcenko VK, (2008) The reptiles of western Palearctic 1: annotated checklist and distributional atlas of the turtles, crocodiles, amphisbaenians and lizards of Europe, North Africa, Middle East and Central Asia. Latina: Edizioni Belvedere. 508 p.
25. Cox N, Chanson J, Stuart S, (2006) The status and distribution of reptiles and amphibians of the Mediterranean basin. Gland and Cambridge: IUCN. 42pp.
26. López-López P, Maiorano L, Falcucci A, Boitani L, Barba E, (2011) Hotspots of species richness, threat and endemism for terrestrial vertebrates in SW Europe. Acta Oecol 37: 399-412. doi:10.1016/j.actao.2011.05.004.
27. Falcucci A, Maiorano L, Ciucci P, Garton EO, Boitani L, (2008) Land-cover change and the future of the Apennine brown bear: a perspective from the past. J Mammal 89: 1502-1511. doi:10.1644/07-MAMM-A-229.1.
28. Rondinini C, Di Marco M, Chiozza F, Santulli G, Baisero D, et al. (2011) Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 366: 2633-2641. doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0113. PubMed: 21844042.
29. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A, (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25: 1965-1978. doi:10.1002/joc.1276.
30. Araújo MB, New M, (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22: 42-47. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010. PubMed: 17011070.
31. Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araujo MB, (2009) BIOMOD: a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography 32: 369-373. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x.
32. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contrib of Working Groups I, IIand III to the Fourth Assessment Report of Geneva: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC. 104 p.
33. Diaz-Nieto J, Wilby RL, (2005) A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the river Thanes, United Kingdom. Clim Change 69: 245-268. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-1157-6.
34. Tabor K, Williams JW, (2010) Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change. Ecol Appl 20: 554-565. doi:10.1890/09-0173.1. PubMed: 20405806.
35. Anandhi A, Frei A, Pierson DC, Schneiderman EM, Zion MS, et al. (2011) Examination of change factor methodologies for climate impact assessment. Water Resour Res 47: W03501.
36. Chen J, Brissette FP, Leconte R, (2011) Uncertainty of downscaling method in quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrology. J Hydrol 401: 190-202. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.020.
37. Williams JW, Jackson ST, Kutzbach JE, (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104: 5738-5742. doi:10.1073/pnas.0606292104. PubMed: 17389402.
38. Mitchell TD, Jones PD, (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25: 693-712. doi:10.1002/joc.1181.
39. Anselin L, (1995) Local indicators of spatial association: LISA. Geogr Anal 27: 93-115.
40. Bartolino V, Maiorano L, Colloca F, (2011) A frequency distribution approach to hotspots identification. Popul Ecol 53: 351-359. doi:10.1007/s10144-010-0229-2.
41. Dormann CF, Schweiger O, Arens P, Augenstein I, Aviron S, et al. (2008) Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity. Ecol Lett 11: 235-244. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01142.x. PubMed: 18070098.
42. Fløjgaard C, Normand S, Skov F, Svenning JC, (2011) Deconstructing the mammal species richness pattern in Europe: towards an understanding of the relative importance of climate, biogeographic history, habitat heterogeneity and humans. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 20: 218-230. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00604.x.
43. Civantos E, Thuiller W, Maiorano L, Guisan A, Araujo MB, (2012) Potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in Europe: the case of pest control by vertebrates. BioScience 62: 658-666.
44. Zimmermann NE, Yoccoz NE, Edwards TC, Meier ES, Thuiller W, et al. (2009) Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106: 19723-19728. doi:10.1073/pnas.0901643106. PubMed: 19897732.
45. Brook BW, Akçakaya HR, Keith DA, Mace GM, Pearson RG, et al. (2009) Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change. Biol Lett 5: 723-725. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2009.0480. PubMed: 19625300.
46. Gallien L, Munkemuller T, Albert CH, Boulangeat I, Thuiller W, (2010) Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: where to go from here? Divers Distrib 16: 331-342. doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00652.x.
47. Wisz MS, Pottier J, Kissling WD, Pellissier L, Lenoir J, et al. (2013) The role of biotic interactions in shaping spatial distributions and realized assemblages of species: implications for species distribution models. Biol Rev 88: 15-30. doi:10.1111/j.1469-185X.2012.00235.x. PubMed: 22686347.
48. Whittaker RJ, Araujo MB, Jepson P, Ladle RJ, Watson JEM, et al. (2005) Conservation biogeography: assessment and prospect. Divers Distrib 11: 3-23. doi:10.1111/j.1366-9516.2005.00143.x.
49. Jenkins CN, Pimm SL, Joppa Lucas N (2013) Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110: E2602-E2610. doi:10.1073/pnas.1302251110. PubMed: 23803854.
50. Roberts CM, McClean CJ, Veron JEN, Hawkins JP, Allen GR, et al. (2002) Marine biodiversity hotspots and conservation priorities for tropical reefs. Science 295: 1280-1284. doi:10.1126/science.1067728. PubMed: 11847338.
51. Gaston KJ, David R, (1994) Hotspots across Europe. Biodivers Lett 2: 108-116. doi:10.2307/2999714.
52. Médail F, Diadema K, (2006) Biodiversité végétale méditerranéenné et anthropisation: approches macro et micro-régionales. Ann Géogr 651: 169-192.
53. Dobson AP, Rodriguez JP, Roberts MW, Wilcove DS, (1993) Geographic distribution of endangered species in the United States. Science 275: 550-553. PubMed: 8999803.
54. Prendergast JR, Quinn RM, Lawton JH, Eversham BC, Gibbons DW, (1993) Rare species, the coincidence of diversity hotspots and conservation strategies. Nature 365: 335-337. doi:10.1038/365335a0.
55. Ohlemüller R, Gritti ES, Sykes MT, Thomas CD, (2006) Towards European climate risk surfaces: the extent and distribution of analogous and non-analogous climates 1931-2100. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 15: 395-405. doi:10.1111/j.1466-822X.2006.00245.x.
56. Fronzek S, Carter TR, Jylhä K, (2012) Representing two centuries of past and future climate for assessing risks to biodiversity in Europe. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 21: 19-35. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00695.x.
57. Haberl H, Erb KH, Krausmann F, Gaube V, Bondeau A, et al. (2007) Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104: 12942-12947. doi:10.1073/pnas.0704243104. PubMed: 17616580.
58. Kark S, Levin N, Grantham HS, Possingham HP, (2009) Between-country collaboration and consideration of costs increase conservation planning efficiency in the Mediterranean basin. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106: 15368-15373. doi:10.1073/pnas.0901001106. PubMed: 19717457.
59. D'Amen M, Bombi P, Pearman PB, Schmatz DR, Zimmermann NE, et al. (2011) Will climate change reduce the efficacy of protected areas for amphibian conservation in Italy? Biol Conserv 144: 989-997. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.11.004.
60. Wintle BA, Bekessy SA, Keith DA, van Wilgen BW, Cabeza M, et al. (2011) Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 1: 355-359. doi:10.1038/nclimate1227.