Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 106, Issue SUPPL. 2, 2009, Pages 19723-19728

  Zimmermann, Niklaus E ^a   Yoccoz, Nigel G ^b   Edwards Jr , Thomas C ^c   Meier, Eliane S ^a   Thuiller, Wilfried ^d   Guisan, Antoine ^e   Schmatz, Dirk R ^a   Pearman, Peter B ^a  

^a SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TROMSØ   (Norway)

^c UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITÉ JOSEPH FOURIER   (France)

^e UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Climate change; Ecological niche; Generalized additive model; Geographic range; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COLD CLIMATE; CONFERENCE PAPER; CONTROLLED STUDY; ECOLOGICAL NICHE; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; TREE; ARTICLE; BIODIVERSITY; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; PHYSIOLOGY; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; SWITZERLAND;

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; SWITZERLAND; TREES;

EID: 73949090388     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0901643106     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Grinnell J (1917) The niche relationships of the California Thrasher. Auk 34:427-433.
2. Chase JM, Leibold MA (2003) Ecological Niches: Linking Classical and Contemporary Approaches (Chicago Univ Press, Chicago), 1st Ed.
3. Pulliam HR (2000) On the relationship between niche and distribution. Ecol Lett 3:349-361.
4. SoberónJ,NakamuraM(2009) Niches and distributional areas: Concepts, methods, and assumptions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19644-19650.
5. Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Model 135:147-186.
6. Austin MP (1987) Models for the analysis of species' response to environmental gradients. Vegetation 69:35-45.
7. Elith J, et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129-151.
8. Thuiller W (2003) BIOMOD: Optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob Change Biol 9:1353-1362.
9. Hannah L, et al. (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ 5:131-138.
10. Peralvo M, Sierra R, Young KR, Ulloa-Ulloa C (2007) Identification of biodiversity conservation priorities using predictive modeling: An application for the equatorial pacific region of South America. Biodivers Conserv 16:2649-2675.
11. Ramirez-Bastida P, Navarro-Siguenza AG, PetersonAT(2008) Aquatic bird distributions in Mexico: Designing conservation approaches quantitatively. Biodivers Conserv 17:2525-2558.
12. Seo C, Thorne JH, Hannah L, ThuillerW(2009) Scale effects in species distribution models: Implications for conservation planning under climate change. Biol Lett 5:39-43.
13. Thomas CD, et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145-147.
14. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:8245-8250.
15. Iverson LR, Prasad AM,Matthews SN, PetersM(2008) Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern U.S. tree species under six climate scenarios. For EcolManage254:390-406.
16. Lawler JJ, et al. (2009) Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology 90:588-597.
17. Ackerly DD, Schwilk DW, Webb CO (2006) Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence. Ecology 87:S50-S61.
18. Evans MEK, Smith SA, Flynn RS, Donoghue MJ (2009) Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the "bird-cage" evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia). Am Nat 173:225-240.
19. Graham CH, Ron SR, Santos JC, Schneider CJ, Moritz C (2004) Integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models to explore speciation mechanisms in dendrobatid frogs. Evolution (Lawrence, Kans) 58:1781-1793.
20. Knouft JH, Losos JB, Glor RE, Kolbe JJ (2006) Phylogenetic analysis of the evolution of the niche in lizards of the anolis sagrei group. Ecology 87:29-38.
21. Frei C, Schöll R, Fukutome S, Schmidli J, Vidale PL (2006) Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J Geophys Res 111:D06105.
22. Gavrilets S, Losos JB (2009) Adaptive radiation: Contrasting theory with data. Science 323:732-737.
23. Parmesan C, Root TL, Willig MR (2000) Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:443-450.
24. Holt RD (2003)Onthe evolutionary ecology of species' ranges. Evol Ecol Res 5:159-178.
25. Holt RD (2009) Bringing the Hutchinsonian niche into the 21st century: Ecological and evolutionary perspectives. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19659-19665.
26. Pulliam HR (1988) Sources, sinks, and population regulation. Am Nat 132:652-661.
27. Honnay O, et al. (2002) Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species. Ecol Lett 5:525-530.
28. van Mantgem PJ, et al. (2009) Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the Western United States. Science 323:521-524.
29. Menzel A, Fabian P (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397:659.
30. Jolly WM, Dobbertin M, Zimmermann NE, Reichstein M (2005) Divergent vegetation growth responses to the 2003 heat wave in the Swiss Alps. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18409.
31. Nemani RR, et al. (2003) Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300:1560-1563.
32. Ciais P, et al. (2005) Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437:529-533.
33. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.
34. Root TL, MacMynowski DP, Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2005) Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102:7465-7469.
35. Walther GR, et al. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-395.
36. Walther G-R, et al. (2009) Alien species in a warmer world: Risks and opportunities. Trends Ecol Evol, in press.
37. Lenoir J, Gegout JC, Marquet PA, de Ruffray P, BrisseH(2008)Asignificant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science 320:1768-1771.
38. Bigler C, Braeker OU, Bugmann H, Dobbertin M, RiglingA(2006) Drought as an inciting mortality factor in Scots pine stands of the Valais, Switzerland. Ecosystems 9:330-343.
39. Brown JH, Stevens GC, KaufmanDM(1996) The geographic range: Size, shape, boundaries, and internal structure. Annu Rev Ecol System 27:597-623.
40. McArthur RH (1972) Geographical Ecology: Patterns in the Distribution of Species (Harper & Row, New York).
41. Whittaker RH, Niering WA (1965) Vegetation of the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona: A gradient analysis of the South Slope. Ecology 46:429-452.
42. Katz RW, Brush GS, Parlange MB (2005) Statistics of extremes: Modeling ecological disturbances. Ecology 86:1124-1134.
43. Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Clim Change 21:289-302.
44. Mearns LO, Katz RW, Schneider SH (1984) Extreme high-temperature events: Changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 23:1601-1613.
45. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high-resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965-1978.
46. Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: Prevalence, kappa, and the true skill statistic (TSS). J Appl Ecol 43:1223-1232.
47. Larcher W, Mair B (1969) The temperature resistance as ecophysiological trait: 1. Quercus ilex and other Mediterranean oak species (Translated from German) Oecol Plant 4:347-376.
48. Körner C (1998) A reassessment of high-elevation treeline positions and their explanation. Oecologia 115:445-459.
49. Gehrig-Fasel J, Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2008) Evaluating thermal treeline indicators based on air and soil temperature using an air-to-soil temperature transfer model. Ecol Model 213:345-355.
50. Körner C, Paulsen J (2004) A worldwide study of high altitude treeline temperatures. J Biogeogr 31:713-732.
51. Ibanez I, Clark JS, LaDeau S, HilleRisLambers J (2007) Exploiting temporal variability to understand tree recruitment response to climate change. Ecol Monogr 77:163-177.
52. van Mantgem PJ, Stephenson NL (2007) Apparent climatically induced increase of tree mortality rates in a temperate forest. Ecol Lett 10:909-916.
53. Villalba R, Veblen TT (1998) Influences of large-scale climatic variability on episodic tree mortality in northern Patagonia. Ecology 79:2624-2640.
54. Holt RD, Keitt TH, LewisMA,Maurer BA, TaperML(2005) Theoretical models of species' borders: Single species approaches. Oikos 108:18-27.
55. Payette S (2007) Contrasted dynamics of northern Labrador tree lines caused by climate change and migrational lag. Ecology 88:770-780.
56. Devi N, et al. (2008) Expanding forests and changing growth forms of Siberian larch at the Polar Urals treeline during the 20th century. Glob Change Biol 14:1581-1591.
57. Heino R, et al. (1999) Progress in the study of climatic extremes in northern and central Europe. Clim Change 42:151-181.
58. Kurz WA, et al. (2008) Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452:987-990.
59. Thuiller W, et al. (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges. Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Syst 9:137-152.
60. Barber VA, Juday GP, Finney BP (2000) Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the 20th century from temperature-induced drought stress. Nature 405:668-673.
61. Briffa KR, et al. (1998) Reduced sensitivity of recent tree growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Nature 391:678-682.
62. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Liepert B, Cherubini P (2008) On the divergence problem in Northern forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes. Glob Planet Change 60:289-305.
63. Svenning JC, Normand S, Skov F (2008) Postglacial dispersal limitation of widespread forest plant species in nemoral Europe. Ecography 31:316-326.
64. Thornton PE, Running SW, White MA (1997) Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain. J Hydrol 190:214-251.
65. Zimmermann NE, Kienast F (1999) Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: Species versus community approach. J Vegetat Sci 10:469-482.
66. Zimmermann NE, Edwards TC, Moisen GG, Frescino TS, Blackard JA (2007) Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional, and broadleaf tree species in Utah. J Appl Ecol 44:1057-1067.
67. Wood SN (2008) Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models. J R Stat Soc B 70:495-518.
68. Wood SN (2006) Low rank scale invariant tensor product smooths for generalized additive mixed models. Biometrics 62:1025-1036.
69. Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38-49.
70. R Development Core Team (2009) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Reference Index Version 2.9.2. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna).