Uncertainty of downscaling method in quantifying the impact of climate change on hydrology

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 401, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 190-202

  Chen, Jie ^a   Brissette, François P ^a   Leconte, Robert ^a  

^a ÉCOLE DE TECHNOLOGIE SUPÉRIEURE   (Canada)

Author keywords

Climate change; Downscaling; Hydrology; Precipitation; Temperature; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MEAN; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS; DOWN-SCALING; DOWNSCALING METHODS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS; HYDROGRAPHS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; PEAK DISCHARGE; PRECIPITATION; RIVER BASINS; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY; STATISTICAL APPROACH; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING; TEMPERATURE INCREASE; TIME TO PEAK; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION; WEATHER GENERATOR;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; WATER;

HYDROLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DISCHARGE; DOWNSCALING; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GREENHOUSE GAS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RIVER BASIN; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CANADA; QUEBEC [CANADA];

EID: 79953784976     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.020     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Bardossy A., Plate E.J. Space time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns. Water Resources Research 1992, 28:1247-1259.
2. Caya D., Laprise R. A semi-implicit semi-lagrangian regional climate model: the Canadian RCM. Monthly Weather Review 1999, 127:341-362.
3. Chen J., Zhang X.C., Liu W.Z., Li Z. Assessment and improvement of CLIGEN non-precipitation parameters for the Loess Plateau of China. Transactions of the ASABE 2008, 51(3):901-913.
4. Christensen N.S., Lettenmaier D.P. A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(4):1417-1434.
5. DAI CGCM3 Predictors, 2008. Sets of Predictor Variables Derived From CGCM3 T47 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, Version 1.1, April 2008, Montreal, QC, Canada, 15 pp.
6. Diaz-Nieto J., Wilby R.L. A comparison statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impacts on low flows in the river Thanes, United Kingdom. Climatic Change 2005, 69:245-268.
7. Duan, Q., 2003. Calibration of watershed models. In: Duan, Q., Gupta, H., Sorooshian, A.N. (Eds.), Water Science and Application, vol. 6. Washington, DC, pp. 89-104.
8. Fortin, V., 2000. Le modèle météo-apport HSAMI: historique, théorie et application. Institut de Recherche d'Hydro-Québec, Varennes, p. 68.
9. Graham L.P., Andreasson J., Carlsson B. Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods - a case study on the Lule River basin. Climatic Change 2007, 81:293-307.
10. Graham L.P., Hageman S., Jaun S., Beniston M. On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Climatic Change 2007, 81:97-122.
11. Hamlet A.F., Lettenmaier D.P. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 1999, 35(6):1597-1623.
12. Hay L.E., Wilby R.L., Leavesly H.H. Comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2000, 36(2):387-397.
13. Hostetler S.W. Hydrologic and atmospheric models. The (continuing) problem of discordant scales. An editorial comment. Climatic Change 1994, 27(4):345-350.
14. Hutchinson M.F., McKenney D.W., Lawrence K., Pedlar J.H., Hopkinson R.F., Milewska E., Papadopol P. Development and testing of Canada-wide interpolated spatial models of daily minimum-maximum temperature and precipitation for 1961-2003. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2009, 48:725-741.
15. IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change.
16. Kalnay E., Kanamitsu M., Kistler R., Collins W., Deaven D., Gandin L., Iredell M., Saha S., White G., Woollen J., Zhu Y., Chelliah M., Ebisuzaki W., Higgins W., Janowiak J., Mo K.C., Ropelewski C., Wang J., Leetmaa A., Reynolds R., Jenne R., Joseph D. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1996, 77:437-471.
17. Kay A.L., Davies H.N., Bell V.A., Jones R.G. Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England. Climatic Change 2009, 92:41-63.
18. Kilsby C.G., Jones P.D., Burton A., Ford A.C., Fowler H.J., Harpham C., James P., Smith A., Wilby R.L. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software 2007, 22(12):1705-1719.
19. Leavesley G.H. Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources - a review. Climatic Change 1994, 28(1-2):159-177.
20. Maurer E.P., Hidalgo H.G. Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2008, 12(2):551-563.
21. Minville M., Brissette F., Leconte R. Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed. Journal of Hydrology 2008, 358:70-83.
22. Minville M., Brissette F., Krau S., Leconte R. Adaptation to climate change in the management of a Canadian water-resources system exploited for hydropower. Water Resources Management 2009, 23:2965-2986.
23. Nicks, A.D., Lane, L.J., 1989. Weather Generator. In: Lane, L.J., Nearing, M.A., (Eds.), USDA-Water Erosion Prediction Project: Hillslope Profile Version. NSERL Report No. 2. USDA-ARS National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory, West Lafayette, Indiana, pp. 2.1-2.22 (Chapter 2).
24. Poulin, A., Brissette, F., Leconte, R., Arsenault, R., Malo, J.S., accepted for publication. Uncertainty of hydrological modeling in climate change impact studies. Journal of Hydrology.
25. Prudhomme C., Davies H. Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate. Climatic Change 2009, 93:197-222.
26. Qian B., Hayhoe H., Gameda S. Evaluation of the stochastic weather generators LARS-WG and AAFC-WG for climate change impact studies. Climate Research 2005, 29:3-21.
27. Qian B., Gameda S., Jong R., Fallon P., Gornall J. Comparing scenarios of Canadian daily climate extremes derived using a weather generator. Climate Research 2010, 41(2):131-149.
28. Quintana Segui P., Ribes A., Martin E., Habets F., Boé J. Comparison of three downscaling methods in simulating the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 383:111-124.
29. Rowell D.P. A demonstration of the uncertainty in projections of UK climate change resulting from regional model formulation. Climatic Change 2006, 79:243-257.
30. Salathe E.P. Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a Rainshadow River Basin. International Journal of Climatology 2003, 23:887-901.
31. Schmidli J., Frei C., Vidale P.L. Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. International Journal of Climatology 2006, 26:679-689.
32. Schoof J.T., Pryor S.C. Downscaling temperature and precipitation: a comparison of regression-based methods and artificial neural networks. International Journal of Climatology 2001, 21:773-790.
33. Solman S., Nunez M. Local estimates of global climate change: a statistical downscaling approach. International Journal of Climatology 1999, 19:835-861.
34. Srikanthan R., McMahon T.A. Stochastic generation of annual, monthly and daily climate data: a review. Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences 2001, 5(4):653-670.
35. von Stoch H., Zorita E., Cubasch U. Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. Journal of Climate 1993, 6:1161-1171.
36. Wilby, R.L., Dawson, C.W., 2007. SDSM4.2 - A Decision Support Tool for the Assessment of Regional Climate Impacts. User Manual 1-94.
37. Wilby R.L., Harris I. A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research 2006, 42:W02419. 10.1029/2005WR004065.
38. Wilby R.L., Wigley T.M.L. Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography 1997, 214:530-548.
39. Wilby R.L., Hay L.E., Leavesley G.H. A comparison of downscaled and raw GCM output: implications for climate change scenarios in the San Juan River Basin, Colorado. Journal of Hydrology 1999, 225:67-91.
40. Wilby R.L., Dawson C.W., Barrow E.M. SDSM-A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environmental Modelling & Software 2002, 17:145-157.
41. Wilby R.L., Wigley T.M.L., Conway D., Jones P.D., Hewitson B.C., Main J., Wilks D.S. Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods. Water Resources Research 1998, 34(11):2995-3008.
42. Wilks D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences 1995, Academic Press, New York, pp. 467.
43. Wilks D.S. Multisite downscaling of daily precipitation with a stochastic weather generator. Climate Research 1999, 11:125-136.
44. Wilks D.S. Use of stochastic weather generator for precipitation downscaling. Climate Change 2010, 1:898-907.
45. Xu C.Y. From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modeling approaches. Progress in Physical Geography 1999, 23(2):229-249.
46. Xu C.Y., Singh V.P. Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate. Water Resources Management 2004, 18:591-612.
47. Zhang X.C. Spatial downscaling of global climate model output for site-specific assessment of crop production and soil erosion. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2005, 135:215-229.