A quantitative causal model theory of conditional reasoning

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory and Cognition

Volumn 39, Issue 5, 2013, Pages 1327-1343

  Fernbach, Philip M ^a   Erb, Christopher D ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b BROWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Alternative causes; Bayesian networks; Causal models; Conditional reasoning; Disabling conditions

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; LOGIC; PHYSIOLOGY; PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL; PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY; REPRODUCIBILITY;

BAYES THEOREM; HUMANS; JUDGMENT; LOGIC; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS;

EID: 84883804955     PISSN: 02787393     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0031851     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Ali, N., Chater, N., & Oaksford, M. (2011). The mental representation of causal conditional reasoning: Mental models or causal models. Cognition, 119, 403-418. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2011.02.005
2. Chandon, E., & Janiszewski, C. (2009). The influence of causal conditional reasoning on the acceptance of product claims. Journal of Consumer Research, 35, 1003-1011. doi:10.1086/593292
3. Cheng, P. W. (1997). From covariation to causation: A causal power theory. Psychological Review, 104, 367-405. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.104.2.367
4. Cheng, P. W., & Novick, L. R. (2005). Constraints and nonconstraints in causal learning: Reply to White (2005) and to Luhmann and Ahn (2005) Psychological Review, 112, 694-707. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.112.3.694
5. Cummins, D. D. (1995). Naïve theories and causal deduction. Memory & Cognition, 23, 646-658. doi:10.3758/BF03197265
6. Cummins, D. D. (2010). How semantic memory processes temper causal inferences. In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (Eds.), Cognition and conditionals: Probability and logic in human thinking (pp. 207-217). New York, NY: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199233298.003.0012
7. Cummins, D. D., Lubart, T., Alksnis, O., & Rist, R. (1991). Conditional reasoning and causation. Memory & Cognition, 19, 274-282. doi: 10.3758/BF03211151
8. De Neys, W., Schaeken, W., & d'Ydewalle, G. (2002). Causal conditional reasoning and semantic memory retrieval: A test of the semantic memory framework. Memory & Cognition, 30, 908-920. doi:10.3758/BF03195776
9. De Neys, W., Schaeken, W., & d'Ydewalle, G. (2003). Inference suppression and semantic memory retrieval: Every counterexample counts. Memory & Cognition, 31, 581-595. doi:10.3758/BF03196099
10. Evans, J. St. B. T. (1993). The mental model theory of conditional reasoning: Critical appraisal and revision. Cognition, 48, 1-20. doi: 10.1016/0010-0277(93)90056-2
11. Evans, J. St. B. T. (2007). Hypothetical thinking: Dual processes in reasoning and judgment. London, England: Taylor & Francis
12. Fernbach, P. M., & Darlow, A. (2010). Causal conditional reasoning and conditional likelihood. In S. Ohlsson & R. Catrambone (Eds.), Proceedings of the Thirty-Second Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society
13. Fernbach, P. M., Darlow, A., & Sloman, S. A. (2010). Neglect of alternative causes in predictive but not diagnostic reasoning, Psychological Science, 21, 329-336. doi:10.1177/0956797610361430
14. Fernbach, P. M., Darlow, A., & Sloman, S. A. (2011a). Asymmetries in predictive and diagnostic reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 140, 168-185. doi:10.1037/a0022100
15. Fernbach, P. M., Darlow, A., & Sloman, S. A. (2011b). When good evidence goes bad: The weak evidence effect in judgment and decisionmaking. Cognition, 119, 459-467. doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2011.01.013
16. Fernbach, P. M., & Rehder, B. (2012). Cognitive shortcuts in causal inference. Argument & Computation. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/19462166.2012.682655
17. Geiger, S. M., & Oberauer, K. (2007). Reasoning with conditionals: Does every counterexample count? It's frequency that counts. Memory & Cognition, 35, 2060-2074. doi:10.3758/BF03192938
18. Griffiths, T. L., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2009). Theory-based causal induction. Psychological Review, 116, 661-716. doi:10.1037/a0017201
19. Holyoak, K. J., & Cheng, P. W. (2011). Causal learning and inference as a rational process. Annual Review of Psychology, 62, 135-163. doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.121208.131634
20. Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1983). Mental models: Towards a cognitive science of language, inference, and consciousness. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press
21. Johnson-Laird, P. N. (1994). Mental models and probabilistic thinking. Cognition, 50, 189-209. doi:10.1016/0010-0277(94)90028-0
22. Johnson-Laird, P. N., & Byrne, R. M. J. (2002). Conditionals: A theory of meaning, pragmatics, and inference. Psychological Review, 109, 646-678. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.109.4.646
23. Johnson-Laird, P. N., Byrne, R. M. J., & Schaeken, W. (1992). Propositional reasoning by model. Psychological Review, 99, 418-439. doi: 10.1037/0033-295X.99.3.418
24. Johnson-Laird, P. N., Legrenzi, P., Girotto, V., Legrenzi, M., & Caverni, J.-P. (1999). Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning. Psychological Review, 106, 62-88. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.106.1.62
25. Kelley, H. H. (1971). Attribution in social interaction. New York, NY: General Learning Press
26. Krynski, T. R., & Tenenbaum, J. B. (2007). The role of causality in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.136.3.430
27. Liu, I., Lo, K., & Wu, J. (1996). A probabilistic interpretation of "if-then". Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology A: Human Experimental Psychology, 49, 828-844
28. Luhmann, C. C., & Ahn, W. (2005). The meaning and computation of causal power: A critique of Cheng (1997) and Novick and Cheng (2004). Psychological Review, 112, 685-692. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.112.3.685
29. Markovits, H., & Barouillet, P. (2002). The development of conditional reasoning: A mental model account. Developmental Review, 22, 5-36. doi:10.1006/drev.2000.0533
30. Markovits, H., & Potvin, F. (2001). Suppression of valid inferences and knowledge structures: The curious effect of producing alternative antecedents on reasoning with causal conditionals. Memory & Cognition, 29, 736-744. doi:10.3758/BF03200476
31. Morris, M. W., & Larrick, R. P. (1995). When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution. Psychological Review, 102, 331-355. doi:10.1037/0033-295X.102.2.331
32. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2001). The probabilistic approach to human reasoning. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 5, 349-357. doi:10.1016/S1364-6613(00)01699-5
33. Oaksford, M., & Chater, N. (2009). Précis of "Bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning." Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32, 69-84. doi:10.1017/S0140525X09000284
34. Oaksford, M., Chater, N., & Larkin, J. (2000). Probabilities and polarity biases in conditional inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 883-899. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.26.4.883
35. Over, D. E., Hadjichristidis, C., Evans, J. St. B. T., Handley, S. J., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). The probability of causal conditionals. Cognitive Psychology, 54, 62-97. doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2006.05.002
36. Pearl, J. (2000). Causality. New York, NY: Oxford University Press
37. Rehder, B., & Burnett, R. C. (2005). Feature inference and the causal structure of object categories. Cognitive Psychology, 50, 264-314. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2004.09.002
38. Reverberi, C., Pischedda, D., Burigo, M., & Cherubini, P. (2012). Deduction without awareness. Acta Psychologica, 139, 244-253. doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2011.09.011
39. Skov, R. B., & Sherman, S. J. (1986). Information-gathering processes: Diagnosticity, hypothesis-confirmatory strategies, and perceived hypothesis confirmation. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 22, 93-121. doi:10.1016/0022-1031(86)90031-4
40. Sloman, S. A. (2005). Causal models: How people think about the world and its alternatives. New York, NY: Oxford University Press
41. Sloman, S. A., Fernbach, P. M., & Ewing, S. (2012). A causal model of intentionality judgment. Mind & Language, 27, 154-180. doi:10.1111/j.1468-0017.2012.01439.x
42. Sloman, S. A., & Lagnado, D. (2005). Do we "do"? Cognitive Science, 29, 5-39. doi:10.1207/s15516709cog2901_2
43. Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., & Scheines, R. (1993). Causation, prediction, and search. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-2748-9
44. Thompson, V. (1995). Conditional reasoning: The necessary and sufficient conditions. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 49, 1-60 doi:10.1037/1196-1961.49.1.1
45. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5, 207-232. doi: 10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
46. Verschueren, N., De Neys, W., Schaeken, W.,&d'Ydewalle, G. (2002). Working memory capacity and the nature of generated counterexamples. InW. Gray & C. Schunn (Eds.), Proceedings of the 24th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Fairfax, VA: Cognitive Science Society
47. Verschueren, N., Schaeken, W., De Neys, W., & d'Ydewalle, G. (2004) The difference between generating counterexamples and using them during reasoning. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology A: Human Experimental Psychology, 57, 1285-1308. doi:10.1080/02724980343000774
48. Verschueren, N., Schaeken, W., & d'Ydewalle, G. (2005). A dual process specification of causal conditional reasoning. Thinking & Reasoning, 11, 239-278. doi:10.1080/13546780442000178
49. Waldmann, M. R. (2000). Competition among causes but not effects in predictive and diagnostic learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 53-76. doi:10.1037/0278-7393.26.1.53
50. Waldmann, M. R., Cheng, P. W., Hagmayer, Y., & Blaisdell, A. P. (2008). Causal learning in rats and humans: A minimal rational model. In N Chater & M. Oaksford (Eds.), The probabilistic mind. Prospects for Bayesian cognitive science (pp. 453-484). Oxford, England: Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199216093.003.0020
51. Waldmann, M. R., & Holyoak, K. J. (1992). Predictive and diagnostic learning within causal models: Asymmetries in cue competition. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 121, 222-236. doi:10.1037/0096-3445.121.2.222
52. Weidenfeld, A., Oberauer, K., & Hornig, R. (2005). Causal and noncausal conditionals: An integrated model of interpretation and reasoning. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology A: Human Experimental Psychology, 58, 1479-1513