Interannual variability of monsoon precipitation and local subcloud equivalent potential temperature

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 23, 2013, Pages 9507-9527

  Hurley, John V ^a   Boos, William R ^a  

^a YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Hydrologic cycle; Interannual variability; Large scale motions; Monsoons; Precipitation

Indexed keywords

HYDROLOGIC CYCLES; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; LARGE-SCALE MOTIONS; MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION; MONSOON PRECIPITATION; MONSOONS; OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE; POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE;

ARID REGIONS; ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATOLOGY; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; MONSOON; POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY);

EID: 84880283041     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00229.1     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147-1167.
2. Arakawa, A., 2004: The cumulus parameterization problem: Past, present, and future. J. Climate, 17, 2493-2525.
3. Arakawa, A., and W. H. Schubert, 1974: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with large-scale environment, Part I. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674-701.
4. Biasutti, M., I. M. Held, A. H. Sobel, and A. Giannini, 2008: SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J. Climate, 21, 3471-3486.
5. Biasutti, M., A. H. Sobel, and S. J. Camargo, 2009: The role of the Sahara low in summertime Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models. J. Climate, 22, 5755-5771.
6. Blanford, H., 1884: On the connexion of the Himalaya snowfall with dry winds and seasons of drought in India. Proc. Roy. Soc. London, 37, 3-22.
7. Bollasina, M., and S. Nigam, 2011: The summertime "heat" low over Pakistan/northwestern India: Evolution and origin. Climate Dyn., 37, 957-970.
8. Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2008a: Wind-evaporation feedback and abrupt seasonal transitions of weak, axisymmetric Hadley circulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 2194-2214.
9. Boos, W. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2008b: Wind-evaporation feedback and the axisymmetric transition to angular momentum-conserving Hadley flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 3758-3778.
10. Boos, W. R., and Z. M. Kuang, 2010: Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating. Nature, 463, 218-222.
11. Boos, W. R., and J. V. Hurley, 2013: Thermodynamic bias in the multimodel mean boreal summer monsoon. J. Climate, 26, 2279-2287.
12. Box, G. E. P., J. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel, 1994: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Prentice-Hall, 592 pp.
13. Bretherton, C. S., M. E. Peters, and L. E. Back, 2004: Relationships between water vapor path and precipitation over the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 17, 1517-1528.
14. Brown, R. G., and C. S. Bretherton, 1997: A test of the strict quasi-equilibrium theory on long time and space scales. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 624-638.
15. Caminade, C., and L. Terray, 2010: Twentieth century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes. Climate Dyn., 35, 75-94.
16. Chakraborty, A., R. S. Nanjundiah, and J. Srinivasan, 2006: Theoretical aspects of the onset of Indian summer monsoon from perturbed orography simulations in a GCM. Ann. Geophys., 24, 2075-2089.
17. Charney, J. G., 1975: Dynamics of deserts and drought in Sahel. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 193-202.
18. Chou, C., and J. D. Neelin, 2003: Mechanisms limiting the northward extent of the northern summer monsoons over North America, Asia, and Africa. J. Climate, 16, 406-425.
19. Chou, C., J. D. Neelin, and H. Su, 2001: Ocean-atmosphere-land feedbacks in an idealized monsoon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1869-1891.
20. Climate Prediction Center, cited 2011: Monthly Niño 3.4 SST anomalies. [Available online at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/list/.]
21. Colman, R. A., A. F. Moise, and L. I. Hanson, 2011: Tropical Australian climate and the Australian monsoon as simulated by 23 CMIP3 models. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10116, doi:10.1029/2010JD015149.
22. Compo, G. P., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2010: Removing ENSO-related variations from the climate record. J. Climate, 23, 1957-1978.
23. Derbyshire, S. H., I. Beau, P. Bechtold, J. Y. Grandpeix, J. M. Piriou, J. L. Redelsperger, and P. M. M. Soares, 2004: Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 3055-3079.
24. Douglas, M. W., R. A. Maddox, K. Howard, and S. Reyes, 1993: The Mexican monsoon. J. Climate, 6, 1665-1677.
25. Douville, H., F. Chauvin, and H. Broqua, 2001: Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part I: Mean monsoon and daily precipitation. J. Climate, 14, 2381-2403.
26. Eltahir, E. A. B., 1998: A soil moisture rainfall feedback mechanism. 1. Theory and observations. Water Resour. Res., 34, 765-776.
27. Eltahir, E. A. B., and C. L. Gong, 1996: Dynamics of wet and dry years in West Africa. J. Climate, 9, 1030-1042.
28. Emanuel, K. A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, 580 pp.
29. Emanuel, K. A., 1995: On thermally direct circulations in moist atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1529-1534.
30. Emanuel, K. A., J. D. Neelin, and C. S. Bretherton, 1994: On large-scale circulation in convecting atmospheres. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 1111-1143.
31. Fasullo, J., and P. J. Webster, 2003: A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal. J. Climate, 16, 3200-3211.
32. Gan, M. A., V. E. Kousky, and C. F. Ropelewski, 2004: The South America monsoon circulation and its relationship to rainfall over west-central Brazil. J. Climate, 17, 47-66.
33. Garreaud, R. D., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: Summertime incursions of midlatitude air into subtropical and tropical South America. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2713-2733.
34. Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science, 302, 1027-1030.
35. Gill, A. E., 1980: Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106, 447-462.
36. Godfred-Spenning, C. R., and C. J. C. Reason, 2002: Interannual variability of lower-tropospheric moisture transport during the Australian monsoon. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 509-532.
37. Gutzler, D. S., 2004: An index of interannual precipitation variability in the core of the North American monsoon region. J. Climate, 17, 4473-4480.
38. Haarsma, R. J., F. M. Selten, S. L. Weber, and M. Kliphuis, 2005: Sahel rainfall variability and response to greenhouse warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17702, doi:10.1029/2005GL023232.
39. Hoerling, M., J. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and A. Phillips, 2006: Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change. J. Climate, 19, 3989-4008.
40. Janowiak, J. E., 1988: An investigation of interannual rainfall variability in Africa. J. Climate, 1, 240-255.
41. JISAO, cited 2011: University of Delaware global surface air temperature and precipitation climatology and monthly grids, 1900-2008. [Available online at http://jisao.washington.edu/datasets/ud/.]
42. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
43. Li, Y., R. Y. Lu, and B. W. Dong, 2007: The ENSO-Asian monsoon interaction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Climate, 20, 5164-5177.
44. Lindzen, R. S., and A. Y. Hou, 1988: Hadley circulations for zonally averaged heating centered off the equator. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2416-2427.
45. Lu, J., 2009: The dynamics of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature forcing of Sahel drought. Climate Dyn., 33, 445-460.
46. Matsuno, T., 1966: Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 44, 25-42.
47. Matsuura, K., and C. J. Willmott, cited 2011: Terrestrial precipitation: 1900-2008 gridded monthly time series. Center for Climatic Research Rep. [Available online at http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/Global2_Ts_2009/README.global_p_ts_2009.html.]
48. McHugh, M. J., 2004: Near-surface zonal flow and East African precipitation receipt during austral summer. J. Climate, 17, 4070-4079.
49. Neelin, J. D., 2007: Moist dynamics of tropical convection zones in monsoons, teleconnections and global warming. The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, T. Schneider and A. H. Sobel, Eds., Princeton University Press, 267-301.
50. Neelin, J. D., and N. Zeng, 2000: A quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model-Formulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 1741-1766.
51. Neelin, J. D., O. Peters, J. W. B. Lin, K. Hales, and C. E. Holloway, 2008: Rethinking convective quasi-equilibrium: Observational constraints for stochastic convective schemes in climate models. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc.,366A, 2581-2604.
52. Nie, J., W. R. Boos, and Z. M. Kuang, 2010: Observational evaluation of a convective quasi-equilibrium view of monsoons. J. Climate, 23, 4416-4428.
53. Peterson, T. C., and R. S. Vose, 1997: An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.
54. Peyrillé, P., and J. P. Lafore, 2007: An idealized two-dimensional framework to study the West African monsoon. Part II: Large-scale advection and the diurnal cycle. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2783-2803.
55. Prive, N. C., and R. A. Plumb, 2007a: Monsoon dynamics with interactive forcing. Part I: Axisymmetric studies. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1417-1430.
56. Prive, N. C., and R. A. Plumb, 2007b: Monsoon dynamics with interactive forcing. Part II: Impact of eddies and asymmetric geometries. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 1431-1442.
57. Ramage, C. S., 1966: The summer atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Sea. J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 144-150.
58. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1983: The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 517-528.
59. Raymond, D. J., and X. Zeng, 2000: Instability and large-scale circulations in a two-column model of the tropical troposphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 3117-3135.
60. Robock, A., M. Q. Mu, K. Vinnikov, and D. Robinson, 2003: Land surface conditions over Eurasia and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4131, doi:10.1029/2002JD002286.
61. Rodwell, M. J., and B. J. Hoskins, 1996: Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1385-1404.
62. Rowell, D. P., 2003: The impact of Mediterranean SSTs on the Sahelian rainfall season. J. Climate, 16, 849-862.
63. Saji, N. H., B. N. Goswami, P. N. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata, 1999: A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401, 360-363.
64. Shukla, J., and D. A. Paolino, 1983: The southern oscillation and long-range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1830-1837.
65. Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2004: Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). J. Climate, 17, 2466-2477.
66. Taschetto, A. S., C. C. Ummenhofer, A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England, 2009: Effect of anomalous warming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12704, doi:10.1029/2009GL038416.
67. Taschetto, A. S., R. J. Haarsma, A. Sen Gupta, C. C. Ummenhofer, K. J. Hill, and M. H. England, 2010: Australian monsoon variability driven by a Gill-Matsuno-type response to central west Pacific warming. J. Climate, 23, 4717-4736.
68. Thorncroft, C. D., and M. Blackburn, 1999: Maintenance of the African easterly jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 763-786.
69. Thorncroft, C. D., N. Hanh, C. D. Zhang, and P. Peyrille, 2011: Annual cycle of the West African monsoon: Regional circulations and associated water vapour transport. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 129-147.
70. Tompkins, A. M., 2001: Organization of tropical convection in low vertical wind shears: The role of water vapor. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 529-545.
71. Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea, 2005: Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14703, doi:10.1029/2005GL022760.
72. Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, and J. M. Caron, 2000: The global monsoon as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 13, 3969-3993.
73. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
74. Vera, C., and Coauthors, 2006: Toward a unified view of the American monsoon systems. J. Climate, 19, 4977-5000.
75. Vernekar, A. D., J. Zhou, and J. Shukla, 1995: The effect of Eurasian snow cover on the Indian monsoon. J. Climate, 8, 248-266.
76. Wang, B., and Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629-638.
77. Wang, B., and Q. H. Ding, 2008: Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 44, 165-183.
78. Webster, P. J., V. O. Magana, T. N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R. A. Tomas, M. Yanai, and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103 (C7), 14 451-14 510.
79. Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben, 1999: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98. Nature, 401, 356-360.
80. Yang, S., and K. M. Lau, 2004: Interannual variability of the Asian monsoon. Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Springer-Praxis, 259-293.
81. Zhang, C. D., D. S. Nolan, C. D. Thorncroft, and H. Nguyen, 2008: Shallow meridional circulations in the tropical atmosphere. J. Climate, 21, 3453-3470.