Incorporating spatial autocorrelation with neural networks in empirical land-use change models

Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design

Volumn 40, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 384-404

  Chu, Hone Jay ^a   Wu, Chen Fa ^b   Lin, Yu Pin ^c  

^a NATIONAL CHENG KUNG UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^b NATIONAL CHUNG HSING UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

^c NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

ANNS; CLUE s; Land use change; Landscape metrics; Spatial autocorrelation; Three map comparison

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; AUTOCORRELATION; COMPARATIVE STUDY; LAND USE CHANGE; MODEL TEST; MODEL VALIDATION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; PLANNING METHOD; SPATIAL ANALYSIS;

TAIWAN;

EID: 84878466908     PISSN: 02658135     EISSN: 14723417     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1068/b37116     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Agarwal C, Green G M, Grove J M, Evans T P, Schweik C M, 2002 A Review and Assessment of Land-use Change Models: Dynamics of Space, Time, and Human Choice Report NE-297, Northeastern Research Station, Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture, http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/gtr_ne297.pdf
2. Arai T, Akiyama T, 2004, "Empirical analysis for estimating land use transition potential functions- case in the Tokyo metropolitan region" Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 28 65-84
3. Betts M G, Diamond A W, Forbes G J, 2006, "The importance of spatial autocorrelation, extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence" Ecological Modelling 191 197-224
4. Bhat C R, Guo J, 2004, "A mixed spatially correlated logit model: formulation and application to residential choice modeling" Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 38 147-168
5. Castella J C, Verburg P H, 2007, "Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam" Ecological Modelling 202 410-420
6. Chen C H, Liu W L, Liaw S L, 2005, "Development of a dynamic strategy planning theory and system for sustainable river basin land use management" Science of the Total Environment 346 17-37
7. Chen H, Pontius R G Jr, 2010, "Diagnostic tools to evaluate a spatial land change projection along a gradient of an explanatory variable" Landscape Ecology 25 1319-1331
8. Clarke K C, Gaydos L J, 1998, "Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore" International Journal of Geographical Information Science 12 699-714
9. Costanza R, 1989, "Model goodness of fit: a multiple resolution procedure" Ecological Modelling 47 199-215
10. Dai E, Wu S H, Shi W Z, 2005, "Modeling change-pattern-value dynamics on land-use: an integrated GIS and Artificial Neural Networks approach" Environmental Assessment 36 576-591
11. Dendoncker N, Rounsevell M, Bogaert P, 2007, "Spatial analysis and modeling of land-use distributions in Belgium" Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 31 188-205
12. Dennis R, Shreeve T, Sparks T, Lhonore J, 2002, "A comparison of geographical and neighbourhood models for improving atlas databases: the case of the French butterfly atlas" Conservation Biology 108 143-159
13. Deutsch C V, Journel A G, 1992 GSLIB: Geostatistical Software Library and User's Guide (Oxford University Press, New York)
14. Elkie P C, Rempel R S, Carr A P, 1999 Patch Analyst User Manual: A Tool for Quantifying Landscape Structure Technical Manual TM-002, Northwest Science and Technology, Ministry of National Resources, Thunder Bay, Ontario
15. Fawcett T, 2006, "An introduction to ROC analysis" Pattern Recognition Letters 27 861-874
16. Gill P E, Murray W, Wright M H, 1981 Practical Optimization (Academic Press, London) GS+, 2004, Geostatistics for the environmental sciences, Version 5.0, Gamma Design Software, Plainwell, MI
17. Huang S L, Wang S H, Budd W W, 2009, "Sprawl in Taipei's peri-urban zone: responses to spatial planning and implications for adapting global environmental change" Landscape and Urban Planning 90 20-32
18. Huang S Y, Cheng S J, Wen J C, 2008, "Identifying peak-imperviousness-recurrence relationships on a growing-impervious watershed, Taiwan" Journal of Hydrology 362 320-336
19. Irwin E G, Geoghegan J, 2001, "Developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change" Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 85 7-23
20. Klug W, Grazian G, Grippa G, Pierce D, Tassone C (Eds), 1992 Evaluation of Long Range Atmospheric Transport Models Using Environmental Radioactivity Data from the Chernobyl Accident: The ATMES Report (Elsevier, Oxford)
21. Koutsias N, 2003, "An autologistic regression model for increasing the accuracy of burned surface mapping using landsat thematic mapper data" International Journal of Remote Sensing 24 2199-2204
22. Leitão A B, Miller J, Ahern J, McGarigal K, 2006 Measuring Landscapes: A Planner's Handbook (Island Press, Washington, DC)
23. LeSage J P, 2000, "Bayesian estimation of limited dependent variable spatial autoregressive models" Geographical Analysis 32 19-35
24. Li X, Yeh A G, 2001, "Calibration of cellular automata by using neural networks for the simulation of complex urban systems" Environment and Planning A 33 1445-1462
25. Li X, Yeh A G, 2002, "Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land-use changes using GIS" International Journal of Geographical Information Systems 16 323-342
26. Lin Y P, Chang T K, Wu C F, Chiang T C, Lin S H, 2006, "Assessing impacts of typhoons and the Chi-Chi earthquake on Chenyulan watershed landscape pattern in Central Taiwan using landscape metrics" Environmental Management 38 108-125
27. Lin Y P, Lin Y B, Wang Y T, Hong N M, 2008, "Monitoring and predicting land-use changes and the hydrology of the urbanized Paochiao watershed in Taiwan using remote sensing data, urban growth models and a hydrological model" Sensors 8 658-680
28. Lin Y P, Verburg P H, Chang C R, Chen H Y, Cheng M H, 2009," Developing and comparing optimal and empirical land-use models for the development of an urbanized watershed forest in Taiwan" Landscape and Urban Planning 92 242-254
29. Lin Y P, Chu H J, Wu C F, Verburg P H, 2011, "Comparing model goodness of fit by logistic regression, auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling" International Journal of Geographical Information Science 25(1) 65-87
30. Luo J, Wei Y H D, 2009, "Modeling spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities: the case of Nanjing" Landscape and Urban Planning 91 51-64
31. McGarigal K, Marks B J, 1994 FRAGSTATS: Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Quantifying Landscape Structure. Reference Manual Forest Science Department, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, http://www.umass.edu/landeco/pubs/mcgarigal.marks:1995.pdf
32. McMillen D P, 1992, "Probit with spatial autocorrelation" Journal of Regional Science 32 335-348
33. McMillen D, 2001, "An empirical model of urban fringe land use" Land Economics 65(2) 138-145
34. Mas J F, Puig H, Palacio J L, Sosa-López A, 2004, "Modelling deforestation using GIS and artificial neural networks" Environmental Modeling and Software 19 461-471
35. Miller J, Franklin J, Aspinall R, 2007, "Incorporating spatial dependence in predictive vegetation models" Ecological Modelling 202 225-242
36. Negnevitsky M, 2002 Artificial Intelligence: A Guide to Intelligent Systems (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA)
37. Overmars K, de Koning G, Veldkamp A, 2003, "Spatial autocorrelation in multi-scale land use models" Ecological Modelling 164 257-270
38. Paez A, 2007, "Spatial perspectives on urban systems: developments and directions" Journal of Geographical Systems 9 1-6
39. Pijanowski B C, Brown D G, Shellito B A, Manik G A, 2002, "Using neural networks and GIS to forecast land-use changes: a land transformation model" Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 26 553-575
40. Pijanowski B C, Pithadia S, Shellito B A, 2005, "Calibrating a neural network-based urban change model for two metropolitan areas of the Upper Midwest of the United States" International Journal of Geographical Information Science 19 197-215
41. Pinkse J, Slade M E, 1998, "Contracting in space: an application of spatial statistics to discretechoice models" Journal of Econometrics 85 125-154
42. Piorecky M D, Prescott D R C, 2006, "Multiple spatial scale logistic and auto-logistic habitat selection models for northern pygmy owls, along the eastern slopes of Alberta's Rocky Mountains" Biological Conservation 129 360-371
43. Pontius R G Jr, Batchu K, 2003, "Using the relative operating characteristic to quantify certainty in prediction of location of land cover change in India" Transactions in GIS 7 467-484
44. Pontius R G Jr, Lippitt C D, 2006, "Can error explain map differences over time?" Cartography and Geographic Information Science 33(2) 159-171
45. Pontius R, Boersma W, Castella J C, Clarke K, de Nijs T, Dietzel C, Duan Z, Fosting E, Goldstein N, Kok K, Kooma E, Lippett C D, McConnell W, Sood A M, Pijanowski B, Pithadia S, Sweeney S, Trung T N, Veldkamp A M, Verburg P H, 2008, "Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change" The Annals of Regional Science 42 11-37
46. Pontius R G Jr, Peethambaram S, Castella J C, 2011, "Comparison of three maps at multiple resolutions: a case study of land change simulation in Cho Don District, Vietnam" Annals of the Association of American Geographers 101 45-62
47. Swets J A, 1988, "Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems" Science 240 1285-1293
48. Tsai B W, Chang K T, Chang C Y, 2006, "Analyzing spatial and temporal changes of aquaculture in Yunlin County, Taiwan" The Professional Geographer 58 161-171
49. Tsuyuki S S, 2008, "GIS-based modeling of Javan Hawk-Eagle distribution using logistic and auto-logistic regression models" Biological Conservation 141 756-769
50. Turner B, Skole D, Sanderson S, Fischer G, Fresco L, Leemans R, 1995 Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC): Science/Research Plan I HDP Report No. 7, IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm
51. Veldkamp A, Fresco L O, 1996, "CLUE: a conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects" Ecological Modelling 85 253-270
52. Verburg P H, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, Limpiada R, Espaldon V, Sharifah Mastura S A, 2002, "Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land-use: the CLUES model" Environmental Management 30 391-405
53. Verburg P H, van Eck J R R, de Nijs T C M, 2004, "Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands" Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 31 125-150
54. Verburg P H, Kok K, Pontius R G Jr, Veldkamp A, 2006, "Modeling land-use and land-cover change", in Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Processes and Global Impacts Eds E F Lambin, H J Geist (Springer-Verlag, Berlin)
55. Wang X, Kockelman K, 2006, "Tracking land cover change in a mixed logit model: recognizing temporal and spatial effects" Transportation Research Record number 1977, 112-120
56. Wang X K, Kockelman K M, 2009, "Application of the dynamic spatial ordered probit model: patterns of land development change in Austin, Texas" Papers in Regional Science 88 345-365
57. Wu D Q, Liu J, Zhang G S, Ding W, Wang W, Wang R, 2009, "Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata model: an application to the dynamics of Chinese tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis Lour.)" Ecological Modelling 220 3490-3498
58. Wu H, Huffer F W, 1997, "Modeling the distribution of plant species using the autologistic regression model" Environmental and Ecological Statistics 4 49-64
59. Zhou B, Kockelman K, 2008, "Neighborhood impacts on land use change: a multinomial logit model of spatial relationships" Annals of Regional Science 42 321-340