메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 80, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 699-710

How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

Author keywords

Complexity; Evolutionary futures; Plausibility; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

COMPLEXITY; COMPLEXITY SCIENCE; CORPORATE STRATEGIES; EVOLUTIONARY FUTURES; HETEROGENEOUS AGENTS; PLAUSIBILITY; SCENARIO BUILDING PRACTICES; SCENARIOS;

EID: 84875375476     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.031     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (91)

References (82)
  • 1
    • 33748761165 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Imagining sustainability: the added value of transition scenarios in transition management
    • Sondeijker S., Guerts J., Rotmans J., Tukker A. Imagining sustainability: the added value of transition scenarios in transition management. Foresight 2006, 8(5):15-30.
    • (2006) Foresight , vol.8 , Issue.5 , pp. 15-30
    • Sondeijker, S.1    Guerts, J.2    Rotmans, J.3    Tukker, A.4
  • 2
    • 79953192470 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Feral futures: Zen and aesthetics
    • Ramírez R., Ravetz J. Feral futures: Zen and aesthetics. Futures 2011, 43:478-487.
    • (2011) Futures , vol.43 , pp. 478-487
    • Ramírez, R.1    Ravetz, J.2
  • 4
    • 9944238860 scopus 로고
    • Dilemmas in a general theory of planning
    • (Reprinted in: N. Cross (ed.), Developments in Design Methodology, J. Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1984, 135 144)
    • Rittel H., Webber M. Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences 1973, 4:155-169. (Reprinted in: N. Cross (ed.), Developments in Design Methodology, J. Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1984, 135 144).
    • (1973) Policy Sciences , vol.4 , pp. 155-169
    • Rittel, H.1    Webber, M.2
  • 6
    • 34248983823 scopus 로고
    • The causal texture of organizational environments
    • Emery F.E., Trist E.L. The causal texture of organizational environments. Human Relations 1965, 18:21-32.
    • (1965) Human Relations , vol.18 , pp. 21-32
    • Emery, F.E.1    Trist, E.L.2
  • 7
    • 0003376794 scopus 로고
    • Scenarios: shooting the rapids
    • Wack P. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review 1985, 63(6):139-150.
    • (1985) Harvard Business Review , vol.63 , Issue.6 , pp. 139-150
    • Wack, P.1
  • 12
    • 62749108441 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology
    • Wilkinson A., Eidinow E. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology. Environmental Research Letters 2008, 3.
    • (2008) Environmental Research Letters , vol.3
    • Wilkinson, A.1    Eidinow, E.2
  • 13
    • 20444437996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
    • Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., van der Heijden K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 2005, 37(8):795.
    • (2005) Futures , vol.37 , Issue.8 , pp. 795
    • Bradfield, R.1    Wright, G.2    Burt, G.3    Cairns, G.4    van der Heijden, K.5
  • 16
    • 19744361858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices
    • Wright A. The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Management Decision 2005, 43:86-101.
    • (2005) Management Decision , vol.43 , pp. 86-101
    • Wright, A.1
  • 17
    • 0036650218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessments using scenarios as 'learning machines'
    • Berkhout F., Hertin J., Jordan A.J. Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessments using scenarios as 'learning machines'. Global Environmental Change 2003, 12:83-95.
    • (2003) Global Environmental Change , vol.12 , pp. 83-95
    • Berkhout, F.1    Hertin, J.2    Jordan, A.J.3
  • 18
    • 77956720194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Canaries in the mind: how the financial crisis impacts 21st century future-mindfulness
    • Wilkinson A.J., Ramirez R. Canaries in the mind: how the financial crisis impacts 21st century future-mindfulness. Journal of Futures Studies 2010, 14(3):45-60.
    • (2010) Journal of Futures Studies , vol.14 , Issue.3 , pp. 45-60
    • Wilkinson, A.J.1    Ramirez, R.2
  • 21
    • 0023401212 scopus 로고
    • Scenario planning - what style should you use
    • Huss W.R., Honton E.J. Scenario planning - what style should you use. Long Range Planning 1987, 4(20):21-29.
    • (1987) Long Range Planning , vol.4 , Issue.20 , pp. 21-29
    • Huss, W.R.1    Honton, E.J.2
  • 23
    • 34147122181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence, understanding and complexity: evaluation in non-linear systems
    • Barnes M., Matka E., Sullivan H. Evidence, understanding and complexity: evaluation in non-linear systems. Evaluation 2003, 9(3):263-282.
    • (2003) Evaluation , vol.9 , Issue.3 , pp. 263-282
    • Barnes, M.1    Matka, E.2    Sullivan, H.3
  • 28
    • 0001462770 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gas-kinetic-based traffic model explaining observed hysteretic phase transition
    • Helbing D., Treiber M. Gas-kinetic-based traffic model explaining observed hysteretic phase transition. Physical Review Letters 1997, 81:3042-3045.
    • (1997) Physical Review Letters , vol.81 , pp. 3042-3045
    • Helbing, D.1    Treiber, M.2
  • 29
    • 45849087227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new tool for epidemiology: the usefulness of dynamic-agent models in understanding place effects on health
    • Auchincloss A.H., Diez Roux A.V. A new tool for epidemiology: the usefulness of dynamic-agent models in understanding place effects on health. American Journal of Epidemiology 2008, 168:1-8.
    • (2008) American Journal of Epidemiology , vol.168 , pp. 1-8
    • Auchincloss, A.H.1    Diez Roux, A.V.2
  • 31
    • 0008671650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In Search of an Evolutionary Paradigm for Futures Research
    • Mannermaa M. In Search of an Evolutionary Paradigm for Futures Research. Futures 2011, 23(4):349-372.
    • (2011) Futures , vol.23 , Issue.4 , pp. 349-372
    • Mannermaa, M.1
  • 32
    • 0042174674 scopus 로고
    • Complexity and systems thinking in futures research
    • Mannermaa M. Complexity and systems thinking in futures research. Systemic Practice and Action Research 1988, 1:279-295.
    • (1988) Systemic Practice and Action Research , vol.1 , pp. 279-295
    • Mannermaa, M.1
  • 34
    • 34249743649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities
    • Burt G. Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2007, 74:731-749.
    • (2007) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.74 , pp. 731-749
    • Burt, G.1
  • 36
    • 68349092010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The SAS approach: combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios 123 150
    • Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, J. Alcamo (Ed.)
    • Alcamo J. The SAS approach: combining qualitative and quantitative knowledge in environmental scenarios 123 150. Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis 2011, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. J. Alcamo (Ed.).
    • (2011) Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenario Analysis
    • Alcamo, J.1
  • 37
    • 73649117138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: the use of fuzzy cognitive maps as a communication and learning tool
    • van Vliet M., Kok K., Veldkamp T. Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: the use of fuzzy cognitive maps as a communication and learning tool. Futures 2010, 42:1-14.
    • (2010) Futures , vol.42 , pp. 1-14
    • van Vliet, M.1    Kok, K.2    Veldkamp, T.3
  • 38
    • 34447338434 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments
    • Zurek M.B., Henrichs T. Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2007, 74:1282-1295.
    • (2007) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.74 , pp. 1282-1295
    • Zurek, M.B.1    Henrichs, T.2
  • 39
    • 42949133393 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies
    • Eriksson E., Weber K. Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2008, 75:462-482.
    • (2008) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.75 , pp. 462-482
    • Eriksson, E.1    Weber, K.2
  • 40
    • 71849102305 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Co-evolutionary scenarios: an application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology
    • Robinson D.K.R. Co-evolutionary scenarios: an application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2009, 76:1222-1239.
    • (2009) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.76 , pp. 1222-1239
    • Robinson, D.K.R.1
  • 43
    • 84875381964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • From causal textures to predetermined elements to new realities in scenario thinking and practice George Burt
    • Earthscan, R. Ramírez, J. Selsky, K. van der Heijden (Eds.)
    • Burt G., Valery P. From causal textures to predetermined elements to new realities in scenario thinking and practice George Burt. Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios 2010, Earthscan. 2nd ed. R. Ramírez, J. Selsky, K. van der Heijden (Eds.).
    • (2010) Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios
    • Burt, G.1    Valery, P.2
  • 46
    • 84875375576 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New forms of coherence for the social engagement of the social scientist: The theory and facilitation of organizational change from the perspective of the Emery-Trist systems paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought
    • Earthscan, R. Ramírez, J. Selsky, K. van der Heijden (Eds.) Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios
    • Bernard M. New forms of coherence for the social engagement of the social scientist: The theory and facilitation of organizational change from the perspective of the Emery-Trist systems paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought. Science, Society Series 2010, Earthscan. 2nd ed. R. Ramírez, J. Selsky, K. van der Heijden (Eds.).
    • (2010) Science, Society Series
    • Bernard, M.1
  • 48
    • 84990317184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scanning beyond the horizon: exploring the ontological and epistemological basis for scenario planning
    • Walton J.S. Scanning beyond the horizon: exploring the ontological and epistemological basis for scenario planning. Advances in Developing Human Resources 2008, 10(2):147-165.
    • (2008) Advances in Developing Human Resources , vol.10 , Issue.2 , pp. 147-165
    • Walton, J.S.1
  • 50
    • 0034165058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes in organizational knowledge production
    • Huff A.S. Changes in organizational knowledge production. Academy of Management Review 2000, 25:288-293.
    • (2000) Academy of Management Review , vol.25 , pp. 288-293
    • Huff, A.S.1
  • 51
    • 33645080932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: lessons from 2025
    • Roubelat F. Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: lessons from 2025. Futures 2006, 38:519-527.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , pp. 519-527
    • Roubelat, F.1
  • 55
  • 56
    • 20444496885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Knowledge, limits and boundaries
    • Cilliers P. Knowledge, limits and boundaries. Futures 2005, 37:605-613.
    • (2005) Futures , vol.37 , pp. 605-613
    • Cilliers, P.1
  • 57
    • 0003376794 scopus 로고
    • Scenarios: shooting the rapids
    • Wack P. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review 1985, 63(6):139-150.
    • (1985) Harvard Business Review , vol.63 , Issue.6 , pp. 139-150
    • Wack, P.1
  • 59
    • 0025922918 scopus 로고
    • Coevolution to the edge of chaos: coupled fitness landscapes, poised states, and coevolutionary avalanches
    • Kauffman S.A., Johnsen S. Coevolution to the edge of chaos: coupled fitness landscapes, poised states, and coevolutionary avalanches. Journal of Theoretical Biology 1991, 149:467-505.
    • (1991) Journal of Theoretical Biology , vol.149 , pp. 467-505
    • Kauffman, S.A.1    Johnsen, S.2
  • 62
    • 78649711093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transitions - taking complexity seriously
    • Vasileiadou E., Safarzyńska K. Transitions - taking complexity seriously. Futures 2010, 42:1176-1186.
    • (2010) Futures , vol.42 , pp. 1176-1186
    • Vasileiadou, E.1    Safarzyńska, K.2
  • 63
    • 84875375499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In memory of Pierre Wack, NETview
    • Collyns N. In memory of Pierre Wack, NETview. Business Network News 1998, 9.
    • (1998) Business Network News , vol.9
    • Collyns, N.1
  • 66
    • 0141975219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world
    • Kurtz C.F., Snowden D.J. The new dynamics of strategy: sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Systems Journal 2003, 42:462-483.
    • (2003) IBM Systems Journal , vol.42 , pp. 462-483
    • Kurtz, C.F.1    Snowden, D.J.2
  • 67
    • 29744456357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Practising the scenarios axes technique
    • van Klooster Susan, van Asselt M. Practising the scenarios axes technique. Futures 2006, 38(1):15-30.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , Issue.1 , pp. 15-30
    • van Klooster, S.1    van Asselt, M.2
  • 68
    • 0037409782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An updated scenarios typology
    • van Notten P., et al. An updated scenarios typology. Futures 2003, 35:423-443.
    • (2003) Futures , vol.35 , pp. 423-443
    • van Notten, P.1
  • 69
    • 33746520092 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide
    • Borjeson L., et al. Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures 2006, 38:723-739.
    • (2006) Futures , vol.38 , pp. 723-739
    • Borjeson, L.1
  • 72
    • 79959780953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How Shell's Domains link Innovation and Strategy
    • R. Ramirez, L. Roodhardt, W. Manders, How Shell's Domains link Innovation and Strategy, Long Range Planning 44 (4) (2011) 250-270.
    • (2011) Long Range Planning , vol.44 , Issue.4 , pp. 250-270
    • Ramirez, R.1    Roodhardt, L.2    Manders, W.3
  • 76
    • 76749096338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The next generation of climate change scenarios
    • Moss R., et al. The next generation of climate change scenarios. Nature 2010, 463:747-756.
    • (2010) Nature , vol.463 , pp. 747-756
    • Moss, R.1
  • 79
    • 84858296654 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning with futures to realise progress towards sustainability: the WBCSD Vision 2040 Initiative
    • Wilkinson A.J., Mangalagiu D. Learning with futures to realise progress towards sustainability: the WBCSD Vision 2040 Initiative. Futures 2012, 44(4):372-384.
    • (2012) Futures , vol.44 , Issue.4 , pp. 372-384
    • Wilkinson, A.J.1    Mangalagiu, D.2
  • 82
    • 73649103558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Re-focusing research and researchers in public participation
    • von Korff Y. Re-focusing research and researchers in public participation. Proceedings of CAIWA, Basel 2007.
    • (2007) Proceedings of CAIWA, Basel
    • von Korff, Y.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.