(Wisdom of the Crowds)2: 2010 UK Election Prediction with Social Media

Journal of Information Technology and Politics

Volumn 10, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 57-71

  Franch, Fabio ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

2010 British election; ARIMA model; election prediction; social media; vote function; wisdom of the crowds

Indexed keywords

EID: 84874523439     PISSN: 19331681     EISSN: 1933169X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/19331681.2012.705080     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Abramowitz, A. 1988. An improved model for predicting presidential election outcomes. PS: Political Science and Politics, 21(4): 843-847.
2. Anvik, C. and Gjelstad, K. 2010. Just Google it! Forecasting Norwegian unemployment figures with web queries, Oslo: BI Norwegian School of Management. Master's thesis of science in business and economics
3. Bakker, T. P. and de Vreese, C. H. 2011. Good news for the future? Young people, Internet use, and political participation. Communication Research, 38(4): 451-470.
4. Berg, J., Forsythe, R., Nelson, F. and Rietz, T. 2008. "Results from a dozen years of election futures markets research". In Handbook of experimental economics results, Edited by: Plott, C. R. and Smith, V. L. 742-751. Maryland Heights, MO: Elsevier.
5. Campbell, J. E. and Garand, J. C. (Eds.). 2000. Before the vote: Forecasting American national elections, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
6. Cryer, J. D. and Chan, K.-S. 2008. Time series analysis with applications in R, New York: Springer.
7. Erikson, R. S. and Wlezien, C. 2008. Are political markets really superior to polls as election predictors?. Public Opinion Quarterly, 72(2): 190-215.
8. Fishbein, M., Azjen, I. and Hinkle, R. 1980. "Predicting and understanding voting in American elections: Effects of external variables". In Understanding and predicting behaviour, Edited by: Azjen, I. and Fishbein, M. 176-195. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
9. Gaissmaier, W. and Marewski, J. N. 2011. Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples: A comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(1): 73-88.
10. Galton, F. 1907. Vox populi. Nature, 75: 7
11. Gibson, R. and Lewis-Beck, M. S. 2011. Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK hung parliament. Electoral Studies 30(2), 247-249.,
12. Gloor, P. A., Krauss, J., Nann, S., Fischbach, K. and Schoder, D. 2009. Presented at IEEE Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom-09), Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Web science 2.0: Identifying trends through semantic social network analysis, August
13. Kendall, M. G. and Stuart, A. 1950. The law of cubic proportions in election results. British Journal of Sociology, 1(3): 183-197.
14. Laakso, M. 1979. Should a two-and-a-half law replace the cube law in British elections?. British Journal of Political Science, 9(3): 355-384.
15. Lebo, M. and Norpoth, H. 2010. Yes, Prime Minister: The key to forecasting British elections. Electoral Studies 30(2), 258-263.,
16. Lebo, M. J. and Norpoth, H. 2006. The PM and the pendulum: dynamic forecasting of British elections. British Journal of Political Science, 37: 71-87.
17. Leigh, A. and Wolfers, J. 2006. Competing approaches to forecasting elections: Economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets. Economic Record, 82: 325-337.
18. Lewis-Beck, M. S., Nadeau, R. and Bélanger, E. 2004. General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: A political economy model. Electoral Studies, 23: 279-290.
19. Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Rice, T. W. 1984. Forecasting U.S. House elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9(3): 475-486.
20. Madge, C., Meek, J., Wellens, J. and Hooley, T. 2009. Facebook, social integration and informal learning at university: It is more for socialising and talking to friends about work than for actually doing work. Learning, Media and Technology, 34(2): 141-155.
21. McDonald, M. P. 2010. Voter turnout in the 2010 midterm election. The Forum, 8(4): 1-8.
22. McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E. and Hay, R. A. Jr. 1980. Interrupted time series analysis, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
23. Mughan, A. 1987. General election forecasting in Britain: a comparison of three simple models. Electoral Studies, 6: 195-207.
24. Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M. S. and Bélanger, E. 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: A two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 19(3): 333-358.
25. Norpoth, H. 2004. Forecasting British elections: A dynamic perspective. Electoral Studies, 23: 297-305.
26. Payne, C. and Brown, P. 1981. Forecasting the British election to the European Parliament. British Journal of Political Science, 11(2): 235-244.
27. Qualter, T. H. 1968. Seats and votes: An application of the cube law to the Canadian electoral system. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 1(3): 336-344.
28. Sanders, D. 2005a. Popularity function forecasts for the 2005 UK general election. British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 7: 174-190.
29. Sanders, D. 2005b. The political economy of UK party support, 1974-2004: Forecasts for the 2005 general election. Public Opinion and Parties, 15: 47-71.
30. Shah, C. 2010. Supporting research data collection from YouTube with TubeKit. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 7,: 226-240.
31. Sjöberg, L. 2009. Are all crowds equally wise? A comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public. Journal of Forecasting, 28: 1-18.
32. Surowiecki, J. 2004. The wisdom of crowds, New York: Doubleday.
33. Timmermann, A. 2006. "Forecast combinations". In Handbook of economic forecasting, Edited by: Elliot, G., Granger, C. W. J. and Timmermann, A. (pp. 135-196). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
34. Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T. O., Sandner, P. G. and Welpe, I. M. 2010. Predicting elections with Twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment. Proceedings of the Fourth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (pp. 178-185).,
35. Upton, G., Jr, (2010). Does attractiveness of candidates affect election outcomes? http://gregoryuptonjr.com/lib/files/AttractivePoliticians.pdf (http://gregoryuptonjr.com/lib/files/AttractivePoliticians.pdf)
36. Wei, L. and Hindman, D. B. 2011. Does the digital divide matter more? Comparing the effects of new media and old media use on the education-based knowledge gap. Mass Communication and Society, 14(2): 216-235.
37. Whiteley, P. 1986. Political control of the macroeconomy: The political economy of public policy making, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
38. Whiteley, P., Sanders, D., Stewart, M. and Clarke, H. 2011. Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model. Electoral Studies, 30(2): 278-283.
39. Whiteley, P. F. 2005. Forecasting seats from votes in British general elections. The British Journal of Politics & International Relations, 7(2): 165-173.
40. Williams, C. B., Girish, J. and Gulati, J. August 2008. What is a social network worth? Facebook and vote share in the 2008 presidential primaries, August, Boston, Massachusetts: Presented at the 2008 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association.
41. Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction markets. Stanford GSB Research Paper No. 1854. http://ssrn.com/abstract=560070 (http://ssrn.com/abstract=560070)
42. Woodly, D. 2007. New competencies in democratic communication? Blogs, agenda setting and political participation. Public Choice, 134(1-2): 109-123.
43. Xin, J., Gallagher, A. and Cao, L. October 2010. The wisdom of social multimedia: Using Flickr for prediction and forecast, October, Firenze, Italy: Presented at the ACM Multimedia 2010 International Conference.