Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

Ecological Economics

Volumn 88, Issue , 2013, Pages 108-118

  Safarzyńska, Karolina ^a   Brouwer, Roy ^b   Hofkes, Marjan ^b,c  

^a VIENNA UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS   (Austria)

^b VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^c VU University   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Agent based modelling; Evolutionary economics; Flooding; Macro economic models

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CATASTROPHIC EVENT; ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS; ECONOMIC IMPACT; FLOOD; HETEROGENEITY; MACROECONOMICS; POLICY MAKING; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84874410840     PISSN: 09218009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.01.016     Document Type: Article

References (131)

1. Arthur W.B., Holland J.H., LeBaron B., Palmer R., Tayler P. Asset pricing under endogenous expectations in an artificial stock market Available via. http://www.santafe.edu.
2. Axelrod R. The evolution of strategies in the iterated prisoners dilemma. Genetic algorithms and simulated annealing 1987, 32-41. Pitman, Boston, MA. L. David (Ed.).
3. Back T. Evolutionary Algorithms in Theory and Practice 1996, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
4. Banzhalf W., Nordin P., Keller R.E., Francone F.D. Genetic Programming: An Introduction 1989, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco.
5. Barreteau O., Bousquet F., Miller C., Weber J. Suitability of multi-agent simulations to study irrigated viability: application to case studies in the Senegal River Vallet. Agricultural Systems 2004, 80:255-275.
6. Beck U. Risk Society, Towards a New Modernity 1992, Sage Publications, London, UK.
7. Beyer H.-G. The Evolution of Strategies 1998, Spinger-Verlag, Leiden.
8. Bosello F., Roson R., Tol R.S.J. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: sea level rise. Environmental and Resource Economics 2007, 37:549-571.
9. Botzen W.J.W., Aerts J.C.J.H., Bergh, van den J.C.J.M. Factors shaping individual perceptions of climate change flood risk 2009, Water Resources Research, 45: W10440.
10. Boustan L.P., Kahn M.E., Rhode P.W. Moving to higher ground: migration response to natural disasters in the early twentieth century. American Economic Journal 2012, 102.
11. Boyd R., Richardson P. Culture and the evolutionary process 1985, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
12. Brouwer R., Akter S. Informing micro insurance contract design to mitigate climate change catastrophe risks using choice experiments. Environmental Hazards 2010, 9:74-88.
13. Brouwer R., Hofkes M.W. Integrated hydro-economic modelling: approaches, key issues and future research directions. Ecological Economics 2008, 66:16-22.
14. Brouwer R., van Ek R. Integrated ecological, economic and social impact assessment of alternative flood protection measures in the Netherlands. Ecological Economics 2004, 50(1-2):1-21.
15. Brouwer R., Akter S., Brander L., Haque E. Socio-economic vulnerability and adaptation to environmental risk: a case study of climate change and flooding in Bangladesh. Risk Analysis 2007, 27(2):313-326.
16. Brouwers L., Verhagen H. Agent models of catastrophic events. Paper presented at CEEMAS01, 2nd International Workshop of Central and Eastern Europe on Multi-Agent Systems, Krakow, Poland 2001.
17. Applications of Learning Classifier Systems 2004, Springer, Berlin. L. Bull (Ed.).
18. Bunn D.W., Oliveira F.S. Agent-based simulation: an application to the new electricity trading arrangements of England and Wales. IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, Special Issue: Agent Based Computational Economics 2001, 5:493-503.
19. Cagno E., Grande O., De Ambroggi M., Trucco P. Risk analysis of underground infrastructure in urban Areas: time-dependent interoperability analysis. Reliability, Risk, and Safety. Theory and Application 2009, CRC Press, (chapter 262). C.G. Soares, R. Bri, S. Martorell (Eds.).
20. Caldarelli S.B., Marsili M., Zhang Y.C. A prototype model of stock exchange. Europhysics Letters 1998, 40:479-484.
21. Cavallo E., Noy I. The economics of natural disasters: a survey. RES Working Paper 4649 2009, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
22. Changnon S.A., Pielke R.A., Changnon D., Sylves R.T., Pulwarty R. Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2000, 81:437-482.
23. Chiaromonte F., Dosi G. Heterogeneity competition and macroeconomic dynamics. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 1993, 4:36-63.
24. Conrad K. Computable genera equilibrium models in environmental and resource economics. IVS workshop 2001, Mannheim University.
25. Czaika M. Migration in times of uncertainty. On the role of economic prospects 2012, DEMIG paper no. 11.
26. Darwin R.F., Tol R.S.J. Estimates of the economic effects of sea level rise. Environmental and Resource Economics 2001, 19:113-129.
27. Dash J.W. Quantitative finance and risk management. A physicist's approach 2004, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., London, UK.
28. Dawson R., Peppe R., Wang M. An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management. Natural Hazards 2011, 59:167-189.
29. Deissenberg C., van der Hoog S., Dawid H. EURACE: a massively parallel agent-based model of the European economy. Applied Mathematics and Computation 2008, 204:541-552.
30. Dosi G., Marengo L., Fagiolo G. Learning in evolutionary environments. LEM Paper Series 2003/20 2003.
31. Dosi G., Fagiolo G., Roventini A. An evolutionary model of endogenous business cycles. Computational Economics 2006, 27:3-35.
32. Douglas M. Risk and Blame: Essays in Cultural Theory 1992, Routledge, London, New York.
33. Egidi D., Foraboschi F.P., Spadoni G., Amendola A. The ARIPAR project: analysis of the major accident risk connected with industrial and transportation activities in the Ravenna area. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 1995, 49:75-89.
34. Fagiolo G., Dosi G. Exploitation exploration and innovation in a model of endogenous growth with locally interacting agents. Structutal Change and Economic Dynamics 2003, 14:237-273.
35. Farmer D., Foley D. The economy needs agent-based modelling. Nature 2009, 460:6-7.
36. Fisher R.A. The Genetic Theory of Natural Selection 1930, Dover Brooks, New York.
37. Frenken K. Technological innovation and complexity theory. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 2006, 15:137-155.
38. Galan J.M., del Olmo R., Lopez-Paredes A. Diffusion of domestic water conservation technologies in an AMB-GIS integrated model. Lecture Notes In Artificial Intelligence 2008, vol. 5271:567-574.
39. Goldberg D.E. Genetic Algorithms in Search Optimization and Machine Learning 1989, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
40. 2 abatement polices. Resources and Energy Economics 1999, 21:211-253.
41. Gray D., Malone S. Macrofinancial Risk Analysis 2008, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., UK.
42. Haimes Y.Y., Jiang P. Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected Infrastructures. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 2001, 7:1-12.
43. Hallegatte S., Dumass P. Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change. Ecological Economics 2009, 68:777-786.
44. Hallegatte S., Ghil M. Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics. Ecological Economics 2008, 68:582-592.
45. Hallegatte S., Przyluski V. The Economics of Natural Disasters. Concepts and Methods. The World Bank Working Paper5507 2010.
46. Harou J.J., Pulido-Velazquez M.-P., Rosenberg D.E., Madellin-Azuara J., Lund J.R., Howitt R.E. Hydro-economic models: concepts, design, applications, and future prospects. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 375:627-643.
47. Henrich J. Cultural group selection. Co-evolutionary process and large-scale cooperation. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization 2004, 53:85-88.
48. Henrich J., Boyd R., Young P., McCabe K., Alberts W., Ockenfelds A., Gigerenzer G. What is the role of culture in bounded rationality? Available via. http://www.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich.
49. Henriet F., Hallegatte S., Tabourier L. Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2011, 36:150-167.
50. Hewitt K. Regions of Risk: A Geographical Introduction to Disasters 1997, Longman, Singapore.
51. Hodgson G.M., Huang K. Evolutionary game theory and evolutionary economics: are they different species?. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2012, 22:345-366.
52. Hofbauer J., Sigmund K. Evolution Games and Population Dynamics 1998, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
53. IHS Global Insight Japan's Earthquake: A Macroeconomic Damage Assessment 2011, Country Intelligence Analysis, Lexington, Massachusetts, United States.
54. Iwai K. Schumpeterian dynamics part I: evolutionary model of innovation and imitation. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization 1984, 5:159-190.
55. Iwai K. Schumpeterian dynamics part II: Technological progress firm growth and economic selection. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization 1984, 5:321-351.
56. Janssen M.A., Jager W. Simulating diffusion of green products. Co-evolution of firms and consumers. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2002, 12:283-306.
57. Jonkman S.N., Bockarjova M., Kok M., Bernardini P. Integrated hydrodynamics and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands. Ecological Economics 2008, 66:77-90.
58. Kahnemann D., Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 1979, 47:263-291.
59. Kirman A. Whom or what the representative agent represents?. Journal of Economic Perspectives 1992, 6:117-136.
60. Kniveton D., Smith C., Wood S. Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso. Global Environmental Change 2011, 21:S34-S40.
61. Krykow J., Valkering P., Rotmans J., van der Veen A. Agent-based and integrated assessment modelling for incorporating social dynamics in the Management of the Meuse in the Dutch Province of Limburg. Paper presented at the First biennial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Lugano, Switzerland 2002.
62. Kwasnicki W. Schumpeterian modelling. The Elgar companion to Neo-Schumpeterian economics 2007, 389-405. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. H. Hanusch, A. Pyka (Eds.).
63. Learning Classifier Systems from Foundations to Applications 1998, Springer, Berlin. P.L. Lazi, W. Stolzmann, S.W. Wilson (Eds.).
64. LeBaron B. Empirical regularities from interacting long and short horizon investors in an agent based stock market. IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 2001, 5.
65. Levy M., Levy H., Solomon S. Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets 2000, Academic Press.
66. Makowsky M., Taveres J., Mankany T., Meier P. An Agent-based Model of Crisis-driven Migration Proceedings of the Complex Systems Summer. School, 2006 2006, Santa Fe Institute.
67. Malerba F. Innovation and the evolution of industries. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2006, 16:3-23.
68. Milgrom P., Roberts J. Adaptive and sophisticated learning in normal from games. Games and Economic Behaviour 1991, 3:82-100.
69. Mitchell M. An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms 1996, MIT Press, Cambridge MA.
70. Munich Re Topics Geo. Annual review: Natural catastrophes 2008 2009, Munich Re, Munich.
71. Nanto D.K., Cooper W.H., Donnelly J.M. Japan's 2011 earthquake and tsunami: Economic effects and implications for the United States. Congressional Research Service Report for Congress 2011, (Washington D.C.).
72. Narayan P.K. Macroeconomic impact of natural disasters on a small island economy: evidence from a CGE model. Applied Economics Letters 2003, 10(11):721-723.
73. Nelson R. Evolutionary theories of economic change. The Evolution of Economic Diversity 2001, 199-215. Routledge, London. A. Nicita, U. Pagano (Eds.).
74. Nelson R., Winter S. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change 1982, Harvard University Press, Cambridge MA.
75. Nordhaus W.D. An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science 1992, 258(5086):1315-1319.
76. Nordhaus W.D. A question of balance: Weighing the options on global warming policies 2008, Yale University, New Haven.
77. Nordhaus W.D., Boyer J. Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming 2000, MIT Press, Cambridge.
78. Okutama Y. Critical review of methodologies for disasters impact estimation 2004.
79. Okuyama Y., Change S. Modelling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters 2004, Springer, New York.
80. Okuyama Y., Hewings G.J.D., Sonis M. Measuring economic impacts of disasters: interregional input-output analysis using sequential interindustry model. Modelling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters 2004, 77-102. Springer, New York. Y. Okuyama, S. Change (Eds.).
81. Olsson O., Frey B.S. Entrepreneurship as recombinant growth. Small Business Economics 2002, 19:69-80.
82. Pan H. Dynamic and endogenous change of input-output structure under specific layers of technology. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 2006, 17:200-223.
83. Patt A.G., van Vuuren D.P., Berkhout F., Aaheim A., Hof A.F., Isaac M., Mechler R. Adaptation in integrated assessment modelling: where do we stand?. Climatic Change 2010, 99(3):383-402.
84. Potts J. The new evolutionary microeconomics: complexity competence and adaptive behaviour 2000, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
85. Pyka A., Fagiolo G. Agent-based modelling: a methodology for Neo-Schumpeterian economics 2005, Universiteit Augsburg, Germany.
86. Raid J.K., Norris F.H., Ruback P.B. Predicting evacuation in two major disasters: risk perception, social influence and access to resources. Journal of Applied Social Psychology 1999, 29:918-934.
87. Rose A.Z. Economic principles, issues, and research priorities in hazard loss estimation. Modelling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters 2004, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York. Y. Okuyama, S.E. Chang (Eds.).
88. Rose A.Z., Liao S.-Y. Modelling regional economic resilience to disasters: a computable general equilibrium analysis of water service disruptions. Journal of Regional Science 2005, 45:75-112.
89. Safarzyńska K., van den Bergh J.C.J.M. Evolutionary modelling in economics: a survey of methods and building blocks. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2010, 20:329-372.
90. Safarzyńska K., van den Bergh J.C.J.M. Demand-supply coevolution with multiple increasing returns: policy for system transitions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:287-317.
91. Safarzynska K., van den Bergh J. Industry evolution, rationality, and electricity transitions. Energy Policy 2011, 39:6440-6452.
92. Samuelson L. Evolutionary Games and Equilibrium Selection 1997, MIT Press, Cambridge MA.
93. Sandholm W.H. Evolution and Learning in Games: Overview. Working Paper University of Wisconsin 2007, (Available via http://www.sscwisc.edu/~whs. Accessed 14 Jan 2009).
94. Schmidt-Thome P., Kallio H. Natural technological hazards maps of Europe. Geological Survey of Finland 2006, 42:17-63.
95. Shaw D., Hsing-Hsiang H., Ho M.-C., Lin S. Modelling flood loss and risk perception. IIASA Working paper 2005.
96. Shogren J., Crocker T. Risk, self-protection, and ex ante valuation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 1991, 20:1-15.
97. Siergrist M., Gutscher H. Natural hazards and motivation for mitigation behaviour: people cannot predict the affect evoked by a severe flood. Risk Analysis 2008, 28:771-778.
98. Silverberg G., Lehnert D. Long waves and evolutionary chaos in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 1993, 4:9-37.
99. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. Learning innovation and economic growth: a long-run model of industrial dynamic. Industrial and Corporate Change 1994, 3:199-223.
100. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. Collective learning innovation and growth in a boundedly rational evolutionary world. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 1994, 4:207-226.
101. Silverberg G., Verspagen B. An evolutionary model of long-term cyclical variations of catching up and falling behind. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 1995, 5:209-227.
102. Slovic P. Perception of risk. Science 1987, 236:280-285.
103. Smith C., Wood S., Kniveton D. Agent based modelling of migration decision-making. Unto Others: The Evolution and Psychology of Unselfish Behaviour 1998, Harvard University Press, Cambridge. E. Sober, D.S. Wilson (Eds.).
104. Steenge A.E., Bokarjova M. Thinking about imbalances in post-catastrophe economies: an input-output based proposition. Economic Systems Research 2007, 19:205-223.
105. Tabara J.D., Wallman P., Elmqvist B., Iihan A., Madrid C., Olson L., Schilperoord M., Valkering P., Weaver P. Participatory modelling for the Integrated Sustainability Assessment of Water: the World Cellular Model and the Matisse Project. MATISSE Working Paper 9 2007.
106. Terpstra T., Lindell M.K., Gutteling J.M. Does communicating (flood) risk affect (flood) risk perceptions? Results of a quasi-experimental study. Risk Analysis 2009, 29:1141-1155.
107. Tol R.S.J. Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part I: Benchmark estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics 2002, 21(1):47-73.
108. Tol R.S.J. Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part II: Dynamic estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics 2002, 21(1):135-160.
109. Tol R.S.J. The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND. Mitigation Adaptation Strategy Global Change 2007, 12:741-753.
110. Tsur Y., Zemel A. Towards endogenous recombinant growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2007, 31:3459-3477.
111. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1992, 5:297-323.
112. van den Bergh J.C.J.M. Optimal diversity: increasing returns versus recombinant innovation. Journal of Economic Organization and Behaviour 2008, 68:565-580.
113. van den Bergh J.C.J.M., Gowdy J.M. A group selection perspective on economic behaviour, institutions and organizations. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization 2010, 72:1-20.
114. van den Bergh J.C.J.M., Stagl S. Coevolution of economic behaviour and institutions: towards a positive theory of institutional change. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2004, 13:289-317.
115. Vigdor J. The economic aftermath of hurricane Katrina. Journal of Economic Perspectives 2008, 22:135-154.
116. Weibull J.W. What have we learned from evolutionary game theory so far. Working Paper Research Institute of Industrial Economics Sweden 1998, (Available via http://swopechhsse/iuiwop).
117. Weisbush G., Battiston S. From production networks to geographical economics. Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organization 2007, 64:3-4.
118. Weitzman M.L. Recombinant growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998, 113:331-360.
119. West C.T., Lenze D.G. Modelling the regional impact of natural disaster and recovery: a general framework and an application to Hurricane Andrew. International Regional Science Review 1994, 17:121-150.
120. Wilson D.S. Darwin's Cathedral: Evolution Religion and the Nature of Society 2002, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
121. Wilson D.S. Human groups as adaptive units: toward a permanent consensus. The Innate Mind: Culture and Cognition 2006, 78-90. Oxford University Press, Oxford. P. Carruther, P. Laurence, S. Stich (Eds.).
122. Wilson D.S., Sober E. Reintroducing group selection to the human behavioural sciences. Behavioural and Brain Sciences 1994, 17:585-654.
123. Winder N., McIntosh B.S., Jeffrey P. The origin diagnostic and practical application of co-evolutionary theory. Ecological Economics 2005, 54:347-361.
124. Windrum P., Birchenhall C.T. Is life cycle theory a special case?: dominant designs and emergence of market niches through co-evolutionary learning. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 1998, 9:109-134.
125. Windrum P., Birchenhall C.T. Structural change in the presence of network externalities: a co-evolutionary model of technological successions. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2005, 15:123-148.
126. Windrum P., Carli T., Birchenhal C. Environmental impact, quality, and price: consumer trade-offs and the development of environmentally friendly technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2009, 76:533-551.
127. Windrum P., Carli T., Birchenhal C. Consumer trade-offs and the development of environmentally friendly technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2009, 76:552-566.
128. Witt U. What is specific about evolutionary economics?. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 2008, 15:547-575.
129. Wooldridge M. Intelligent agents. Multi-Agent Systems: A Modern Approach to Distributed Artificial Intelligence 1999, 27-78. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. E. Weiss (Ed.).
130. Zenklusen, O., 2007. Natural Disasters and Economic Development: a Neoclassical Review of Theoretical Perspectives and Empirical Evidence. PhD thesis, University of St. Gallen.
131. Zhu T.J., Lund J.R., Jenkins M.W., Marques G.F., Ritzema R.S. Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection. Water Resources Research 2007, 43.