Natural disasters impacting a macroeconomic model with endogenous dynamics

Ecological Economics

Volumn 68, Issue 1-2, 2008, Pages 582-592

  Hallegatte, Stéphane ^a,b   Ghil, Michael ^c,d  

^a Centre International de Recherche sur lEnvironnement et le Developpement   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSE   (France)

^c ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Business cycles; Investment flexibility; Macroeconomic dynamics; Natural hazards; Non equilibrium modeling

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECONOMIC IMPACT; MACROECONOMICS; MODELING; NATURAL DISASTER; NATURAL HAZARD;

EID: 53849103919     PISSN: 09218009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.05.022     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Albala-Bertrand J. The Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters with Special Reference to Developing Countries (1993), Clarendon Press, Oxford
2. Benson C., and Clay E. Understanding the economic and financial impact of natural disasters. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2004), The World Bank, Washington D.C
3. Benhabib J., and Nishimura K. The Hopf-bifurcation and the existence of closed orbits in multi-sectoral models of optimal economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory 21 (1979) 421-444
4. Bockarjova M., Steenge A., and Van Der Veen A. On direct estimation of initial damage in te case of major catastrophe; derivation of the basic equation. Disaster Prevention and Management 13 4 (2004) 330-336
5. Chiarella C., and Flaschel P. The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth (2000), Cambridge University Press 434 pp.
6. Chiarella C., Flaschel P., and Franke R. Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle (2005), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 523 pp.
7. Chiarella C., Franke R., Flaschel P., and Semmler W. Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Dynamic Macromodels (2006), Elsevier 277 pp.
8. Cochrane H. Economic loss: myth and measurement. Disaster Prevention and Management 13 (2004) 290-296
9. Copeland T., and Weston J. Financial Theory and Corporate Policy. Third Edition (2003), Pearson Education International, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, USA
10. Day R. Irregular growth cycles. American Economic Review 72 (1982) 406-414
11. Flaschel P., Franke R., and Semmler W. Dynamic Macroeconomics: Instability, Fluctuations and Growth in Monetary Economies (1997), MIT Press
12. Frisch R. Propagation problems and impulse problems in dynamic economics. Economic Essay in honor of Gustav Cassel (1933), George Allen and Unwin, London
13. Gale D. Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models. Journal of Economic Theory 6 (1973) 12-36
14. Gali J. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations?. American Economic Review 89 (1999) 249-271
15. Gassebner, M., Keck, A., Teh, R., 2006. Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade, Working paper 06-139, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
16. Gertler M., and Hubbard G. Financial Factors in Business Fluctuations, NBER Working Paper 2758 (1988)
17. Ghil M. Cryothermodynamics: the chaotic dynamics of paleoclimate. Physica D 77 (1994) 130-159
18. Ghil M. Natural climate variability. In: MacCracken M., and Perry J. (Eds). Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change vol. 1 (2002), Wiley & Sons, Chichester 544-549
19. Ghil M., Benzi R., and Parisi G. Turbulence and Predictability in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Climate Dynamics (1985), North-Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam 449 pp.
20. Goodwin R. The non-linear accelerator and the persistence of business cycles. Econometrica 19 (1951) 1-17
21. Goodwin R. A growth cycle. In: Feinstein C. (Ed). Socialism, Capitalism and Economic Growth (1967), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
22. Grandmont J.M. On endogenous competitive business cycles. Econometrica 5 (1985) 995-1045
23. Guckenheimer J., and Holmes P. Nonlinear Oscillations, Dynamical Systems, and Bifurcations of Vector Fields. 2nd edn. (1987), Springer-Verlag, New York
24. Hahn F., and Solow R. A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory (1995), The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts
25. Hallegatte S. An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina. Risk Analysis 28 3 (2008) 779-799
26. Hallegatte S., Hourcade J.C., and Dumas P. Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: illustration on extreme events. Ecological Economics 62 2 (2007) 330-340
27. Hallegatte G., Ghil M., Dumas P., and Hourcade J.C. Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neoclassical model with investment dynamics. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 67 (2008) 57-77
28. Hallegatte, S., Boissonnade, A., Schlumberger, M.E., Muir-Wood, R., submitted for publication. Demand surge and worker migrations in disaster aftermaths: application to Florida in 2004 and 2005. Journal of Regional Science.
29. Harrod R. An essay on dynamic economic theory. Economic Journal 49 (1939) 14-33
30. Hicks J. The cycle in outline, Ch. 8. A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle (1950), Oxford University Press, Oxford 95-107
31. Hillinger C. Cyclical Growth in Market and Planned Economies (1992), Oxford University Press
32. Hu X., and Schiantarelli F. Investment and capital market imperfections: a switching regression approach using U.S. firm panel data. The Review of Economics and Statistics 80 (1998) 466-479
33. Ireland P.N. Endogenous money or sticky prices?. Journal of Monetary Economics 50 (2003) 1623-1648
34. Jarsulic M. A nonlinear model of the pure growth cycle. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 22 2 (1993) 133-151
35. Jensen M. Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance and takeovers. American Economic Review 76 (1986) 323-329
36. Juglar, C., 1862. Des Crises Commerciales et leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre, et aux Etats-Unis, Paris, Guillaumin et Cie, Librairies-Editeurs.
37. Kaldor N. A model of the trade cycle. Economic Journal 50 (1940) 78-92
38. Kalecki M. A theory of the business cycle. Review of Economic Studies 4 (1937) 77-97
39. Keynes J.M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936), Macmillan, London 1967
40. Kimball M.S. The quantitative analytics of the basic neomonetarist model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27 (1995) 1241-1277
41. King R., and Rebelo S. Resuscitating real business cycles. In: Taylor J., and Woodford M. (Eds). Handbook of Macroeconomics (2000), North-Holland, Amsterdam 927-1007
42. Kydland F.E., and Prescott E.C. Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica 50 (1982) 1345-1370
43. Lanzi D. Capabilities, human capital and education. Journal of Socio-Economics 36 (2007) 424-435
44. Loeuille N., and Ghil M. Intrinsic and climatic factors in North-American animal population dynamics. BMC Ecology 4 (2004) 6 10.1186/1472-6785-4-6 2004
45. Maynard Smith J., and Slatkin M. The stability of predator-prey systems. Ecology 54 (1973) 384-391
46. Munich-Re, 2004. Topics. Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2003. Munich Reinsurance Group, Geoscience Research Group, Munich, Germany.
47. Nikaido H. Prices, Cycles, and Growth (1996), MIT Press, Cambridge, MA 285 pp.
48. Nordhaus W.D. Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103 10 (2006) 3510-3517
49. Okuyama Y. Modeling spatial economic impacts of an earthquake: input-output approaches. Disaster Prevention and Management 13 4 (2004) 297-306
50. Ricardo D. The High Price of Bullion, a Proof of the Depreciation of Bank Notes (1810), John Murray, London
51. Rose A., Benavides J., Chang S.E., Szczesniak P., and Lim D. The regional economic impact of an earthquake: direct and indirect effects of electricity life-line disruptions. Journal of Regional Science 37 (1997) 437-458
52. Samuelson P. A synthesis of the principle of acceleration and the multiplier. Journal of Political Economy 47 (1939) 786-797
53. Samuelson P. A biological least-action principle for the ecological model of Volterra-Lotka. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences United States of America 71 (1974) 3041-3044
54. Smith, A., 1776. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Reprinted London: Methuen, 5th edn., Ed., E. Cannan, 1904.
55. Slutsky, E., 1927. The summation of random causes as a source of cyclic processes, III(1), Conjuncture Institute, Moscow, Reprinted in Econometrica 5, 105-146.
56. Solow R. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 1 (1956) 65-94
57. Tavares J. The open society assesses its enemies: shocks, disasters and terrorist attacks. Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier 51 5 (2004) 1039-1070
58. Tol R. New estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part I: benchmark estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics 21 1 (2002) 47-73
59. Tol R. New estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part II: dynamic estimates. Environmental and Resource Economics 21 2 (2002) 135-160
60. Tobin J. A general equilibrium approach to monetary policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1 (1969) 15-29
61. West C., and Lenze D. Modeling the regional impact of natural disasters and recovery: a general framework and an application to hurricane Andrew. International Regional Science Review 17 2 (1994) 121-150
62. World Bank. Turkey: Marmara earthquake assessment. World Bank Working Paper (1999)