Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam

Natural Hazards

Volumn 66, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 707-730

  Tien Bui, Dieu ^a,b   Pradhan, Biswajeet ^c   Lofman, Owe ^a   Revhaug, Inge ^a   Dick, Øystein B ^a  

^a NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES   (Norway)

^b HANOI UNIVERSITY OF MINING AND GEOLOGY   (Viet Nam)

^c UNIVERSITY PUTRA MALAYSIA   (Malaysia)

Author keywords

GIS; Hoa Binh; Landslide hazard; Rainfall threshold; Vietnam

Indexed keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; FAILURE MECHANISM; FUZZY MATHEMATICS; GIS; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; INVENTORY; LANDSLIDE; LOGISTICS; MAPPING; POISSON RATIO; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROBABILITY; RAINFALL; TRIGGER MECHANISM;

HOA BINH; VIET NAM;

EID: 84874196547     PISSN: 0921030X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0510-0     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Aleotti P (2004) A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng Geol 73(3-4): 247-265. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2004. 01. 007.
2. Althuwaynee OF, Pradhan B, Lee S (2012) Application of an evidential belief function model in landslide susceptibility mapping. Comput Geosci (0). doi: 10. 1016/j. cageo. 2012. 03. 003.
3. Ballabio C, Sterlacchini S (2012) Support vector machines for landslide susceptibility mapping: the Staffora River Basin case study, Italy. Mathem Geosci 44(1): 47-70. doi: 10. 1007/s11004-011-9379-9.
4. Brabb E (1984) Innovative approaches to landslide hazard mapping. In: Proceedings of 4th international symposium on landslides, 1984. Canadian Geotechnical Society. Toronto, Canada, pp 307-323.
5. Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geografiska Annaler Ser a Phys Geogr 62(1-2): 23-27. doi: 10. 2307/520449.
6. Carrara A, Pike RJ (2008) GIS technology and models for assessing landslide hazard and risk. Geomorphology 94(3-4): 257-260. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2006. 07. 042.
7. Chacon J, Irigaray C, Fernandez T, El Hamdouni R (2006) Engineering geology maps: landslides and geographical information systems. Bull Eng Geol Environ 65(4): 341-411. doi: 10. 1007/s10064-006-0064-z.
8. Chleborad AF (2000) preliminary method for anticipating the occurrence of precipitation-induced landslides in Seattle, Washington. US geological survey open-file report 00-0469.
9. Chleborad AF, Baum RL, Godt JW (2006) Rainfall thresholds for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, area-exceedance and probability. USGS open-file report 2006-1064.
10. Chleborad AF, Baum RL, Godt JW, Powers PS (2008) A prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, area. Rev Eng Geol 20: 103-120. doi: 10. 1130/2008. 4020(06.
11. Chung CJF, Fabbri AG (2003) Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Nat Hazards 30(3): 451-472.
12. Coe JA, Michael JA, Crovelli RA, Savage WZ, Laprade WT, Nashem WD (2004) Probabilistic assessment of precipitation-triggered landslides using historical records of landslide occurrence, Seattle, Washington. Environ Eng Geosci 10(2): 103. doi: 10. 2113/10. 2. 103.
13. Corominas J, Moya J (1999) Reconstructing recent landslide activity in relation to rainfall in the Llobregat River basin, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain. Geomorphology 30(1-2): 79-93. doi: 10. 1016/s0169-555x(99)00046-x.
14. Corominas J, Moya J (2008) A review of assessing landslide frequency for hazard zoning purposes. Eng Geol 102(3-4): 193-213. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2008. 03. 018.
15. Crosta G (1998) Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environ Geol 35(2): 131-145. doi: 10. 1007/s002540050300.
16. Crosta GB, Frattini P (2003) Distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by intense rainfall. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3: 81-93.
17. Crovelli RA (2000) Probability models for estimation of number and costs of landslides. United States geological survey open file report 00-249. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2000/ofr-00-0249/ProbModels.html.
18. Dahal RK, Hasegawa S (2008) Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology 100(3-4): 429-443. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2008. 01. 014.
19. Dahal R, Hasegawa S, Nonomura A, Yamanaka M, Masuda T, Nishino K (2009) Failure characteristics of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in granitic terrains of Shikoku Island of Japan. Environ Geol 56(7): 1295-1310. doi: 10. 1007/s00254-008-1228-x.
20. Das I, Stein A, Kerle N, Dadhwal V (2011) Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment using homogeneous susceptible units (HSU) along a national highway corridor in the northern Himalayas, India. Landslides 8(3): 293-308. doi: 10. 1007/s10346-011-0257-9.
21. Devkota K, Regmi A, Pourghasemi H, Yoshida K, Pradhan B, Ryu I, Dhital M, Althuwaynee O (2012) Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling-Narayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya. Nat Hazards: 1-31. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-012-0347-6.
22. D'Odorico P, Fagherazzi S (2003) A probabilistic model of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in hollows: a long-term analysis. Water Resour Res 39(9). doi: 10. 1029/2002wr001595.
23. Frattini P, Crosta G, Sosio R (2009) Approaches for defining thresholds and return periods for rainfall-triggered shallow landslides. Hydrol Process 23(10): 1444-1460. doi: 10. 1002/hyp. 7269.
24. Giannecchini R, Galanti Y, Avanzi GD (2012) Critical rainfall thresholds for triggering shallow landslides in the Serchio River Valley (Tuscany, Italy). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12(3): 829-842. doi: 10. 5194/nhess-12-829-2012.
25. Glade T (2000) Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical "antecedent daily rainfall model". Pure Appl Geophys 157(6): 1059-1079. doi: 10. 1007/s000240050017.
26. Godt JW, Baum RL, Chleborad AF (2006) Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA. Earth Surf Proc Land 31(1): 97-110. doi: 10. 1002/esp. 1237.
27. Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, Galli M, Ardizzone F (2005) Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale. Geomorphology 72(1-4): 272-299. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2005. 06. 002.
28. Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Ardizzone F, Cardinali M, Galli M (2006) Estimating the quality of landslide susceptibility models. Geomorphology 81(1-2): 166-184. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2006. 04. 007.
29. Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe. Meteorol Atmos Phys 98(3): 239-267. doi: 10. 1007/s00703-007-0262-7.
30. Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark C (2008) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update. Landslides 5(1): 3-17. doi: 10. 1007/s10346-007-0112-1.
31. Harp EL, Reid ME, McKenna JP, Michael JA (2009) Mapping of hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides in developing countries: examples from Honduras and Micronesia. Eng Geol 104(3-4): 295-311. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2008. 11. 010.
32. Heyerdahl H, Harbitz CB, Domaas U, Sandersen F, Tronstad K, Nowacki F, Engen A, Kjekstad O, Devoli G, Buezo SG, Diaz MR, Hernandez W (2003) Rainfall induced lahars in volcanic debris in Nicaragua and El Salvador: practical mitigation. In: Proceedings of international conference on fast slope movements-prediction and prevention for risk mitigation, IC-FSM2003, Naples. Patron Pub, pp 275-282.
33. Hue TT, Duong TV, Toan DV, Nghinh LT, Minh VC, Pho NV, Xuan PT, Hoan LT, Huyen NX, Pha PD, Chinh VV, Thom BV (2004) Investigation and Assessment of the Types of Geological Hazard in the Territory of Vietnam and Recommendation of Remedial Measures. Phase II: a study of the Northern Mountainous Province of Vietnam. Institute of Geological Sciences, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi.
34. Jaiswal P, van Westen CJ (2009) Estimating temporal probability for landslide initiation along transportation routes based on rainfall thresholds. Geomorphology 112(1-2): 96-105. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2009. 05. 008.
35. Jaiswal P, van Westen CJ, Jetten V (2010) Quantitative landslide hazard assessment along a transportation corridor in southern India. Eng Geol 116(3-4): 236-250. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2010. 09. 005.
36. Jakob M, Weatherly H (2003) A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Geomorphology 54(3-4): 137-156. doi: 10. 1016/s0169-555x(02)00339-2.
37. Jakob M, Holm K, Lange O, Schwab JW (2006) Hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide initiation and forest operation shutdowns on the north coast of British Columbia. Landslides 3(3): 228-238. doi: 10. 1007/s10346-006-0044-1.
38. Jemec M, Komac M (2012) Rainfall patterns for shallow landsliding in perialpine Slovenia. Nat Hazards: 1-13. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-011-9882-9.
39. Kim SK, Hong WP, Kim YM (1992) Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides in Korea. Landslides, vols 1 and 2.
40. Lee M-J, Choi J-W, Oh H-J, Won J-S, Park I, Lee S (2012) Ensemble-based landslide susceptibility maps in Jinbu area, Korea. Environ Earth Sci: 1-15. doi: 10. 1007/s12665-011-1477-y.
41. Lopez Saez J, Corona C, Stoffel M, Schoeneich P, Berger F (2012) Probability maps of landslide reactivation derived from tree-ring records: Pra Bellon landslide, southern French Alps. Geomorphology 138(1): 189-202. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2011. 08. 034.
42. Marjanovic M, Kovacevic M, Bajat B, Vozenílek V (2011) Landslide susceptibility assessment using SVM machine learning algorithm. Eng Geol 123(3): 225-234. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2011. 09. 006.
43. Marques R, Zêzere J, Trigo R, Gaspar J, Trigo I (2008) Rainfall patterns and critical values associated with landslides in Povoação County (São Miguel Island, Azores): relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Hydrol Process 22(4): 478-494. doi: 10. 1002/hyp. 6879.
44. Martelloni G, Segoni S, Fanti R, Catani F (2011) Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale. Landslides: 1-11. doi: 10. 1007/s10346-011-0308-2.
45. Matsushi Y, Matsukura Y (2007) Rainfall thresholds for shallow landsliding derived from pressure-head monitoring: cases with permeable and impermeable bedrocks in Boso Peninsula, Japan. Earth Surf Proc Land 32(9): 1308-1322. doi: 10. 1002/esp. 1491.
46. Melchiorre C, Frattini P (2012) Modelling probability of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a changing climate, Otta, Central Norway. Clim Change 113(2): 413-436. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-011-0325-0.
47. Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically-based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour Res 30(4): 1153-1171. doi: 10. 1029/93wr02979.
48. My NQ (2007) Construction of the environmental hazard zonation map for northwest territory of Vietnam. Vietnam Geography Association, Hanoi.
49. Oh H-J, Pradhan B (2011) Application of a neuro-fuzzy model to landslide-susceptibility mapping for shallow landslides in a tropical hilly area. Comput Geosci 37(9): 1264-1276. doi: 10. 1016/j. cageo. 2010. 10. 012.
50. Osanai N, Shimizu T, Kuramoto K, Kojima S, Noro T (2010) Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network. Landslides 7(3): 325-338. doi: 10. 1007/s10346-010-0229-5.
51. Pasuto A, Silvano S (1998) Rainfall as a triggering factor of shallow mass movements. A case study in the Dolomites, Italy. Environ Geol 35: 184-189.
52. Petrucci O, Polemio M (2009) The role of meteorological and climatic conditions in the occurrence of damaging hydro-geologic events in Southern Italy. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9(1): 105-118.
53. Petrucci O, Polemio M, Pasqua A (2009) Analysis of damaging hydrogeological events: the case of the Calabria Region (Southern Italy). Environ Manage 43(3): 483-495. doi: 10. 1007/s00267-008-9234-z.
54. Polemio M, Sdao F (1999) The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy). Eng Geol 53(3-4): 297-309. doi: 10. 1016/s0013-7952(98)00083-0.
55. Pourghasemi H, Pradhan B, Gokceoglu C (2012a) Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran. Nat Hazards 63(2): 965-996. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-012-0217-2.
56. Pourghasemi HR, Mohammady M, Pradhan B (2012b) Landslide susceptibility mapping using index of entropy and conditional probability models in GIS: Safarood Basin, Iran. Catena 97: 71-84. doi: 10. 1016/j. catena. 2012. 05. 005.
57. Pradhan B (2010a) Application of an advanced fuzzy logic model for landslide susceptibility analysis. Int J Computat Intell Syst 3(3): 370-381.
58. Pradhan B (2010b) Landslide susceptibility mapping of a catchment area using frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and multivariate logistic regression approaches. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 38(2): 301-320. doi: 10. 1007/s12524-010-0020-z.
59. Pradhan B (2011a) Manifestation of an advanced fuzzy logic model coupled with geo-information techniques to landslide susceptibility mapping and their comparison with logistic regression modelling. Environ Ecol Stat 18(3): 471-493. doi: 10. 1007/s10651-010-0147-7.
60. Pradhan B (2011b) Use of GIS-based fuzzy logic relations and its cross application to produce landslide susceptibility maps in three test areas in Malaysia. Environ Earth Sci 63(2): 329-349. doi: 10. 1007/s12665-010-0705-1.
61. Pradhan B (2012) A comparative study on the predictive ability of the decision tree, support vector machine and neuro-fuzzy models in landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS. Comput Geosci. doi: 10. 1016/j. cageo. 2012. 08. 023.
62. Pradhan B, Lee S (2010) Landslide susceptibility assessment and factor effect analysis: backpropagation artificial neural networks and their comparison with frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regression modelling. Environ Modell Softw 25(6): 747-759. doi: 10. 1016/j. envsoft. 2009. 10. 016.
63. Pradhan B, Lee S, Buchroithner MF (2010) A GIS-based back-propagation neural network model and its cross-application and validation for landslide susceptibility analyses. Comput Environ Urban Syst 34(3): 216-235. doi: 10. 1016/j. compenvurbsys. 2009. 12. 004.
64. Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, De Vita P, Guzzetti F (1998) Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy). Environ Geol 35(2): 146-159. doi: 10. 1007/s002540050301.
65. Saito H, Nakayama D, Matsuyama H (2010) Relationship between the initiation of a shallow landslide and rainfall intensity-duration thresholds in Japan. Geomorphology 118(1-2): 167-175. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2009. 12. 016.
66. Salciarini D, Godt JW, Savage WZ, Baum RL, Conversini P (2008) Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA. Eng Geol 102(3-4): 227-237. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2008. 03. 013.
67. Salciarini D, Tamagnini C, Conversini P, Rapinesi S (2012) Spatially distributed rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides. Nat Hazards 61(1): 229-245. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-011-9739-2.
68. Schmidt M, Glade T (2003) Linking global circulation model outputs to regional geomorphic models: a case study of landslide activity in New Zealand. Climate Res 25(2): 135-150. doi: 10. 3354/cr025135.
69. Sengupta A, Gupta S, Anbarasu K (2010) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslide at Lanta Khola in north Sikkim, India. Nat Hazards 52(1): 31-42. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-009-9352-9.
70. Sezer EA, Pradhan B, Gokceoglu C (2011) Manifestation of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy model on landslide susceptibility mapping: Klang valley, Malaysia. Expert Syst Applicat 38(7): 8208-8219. doi: 10. 1016/j. eswa. 2010. 12. 167.
71. Terlien MTJ (1998) The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds. Environ Geol 35(2-3): 124-130.
72. Thach NN, Xuan NT, My NQ, Quynh PV, Minh ND, Hoa DB, Bao DV, Dan NV, Thuy TV, Hien NT (2002) Application of remote sensing and geographical information system for research and forecast of natural hazards in Hoa Binh Province. National University Hanoi, Hanoi.
73. Thinh DV, Dong NP, Hong PM, Hung PV, Khoi TN, Ke TD, Phu DV, Thang PX, Thanh PV, Thang PH, Thay BV, Thinh NT, Thien TV, Tu MT, Vinh BX (2005) the investigated report of natural hazards in the Northwest of Vietnam. Northern Geological Mapping Division, Hanoi.
74. Tien Bui D, Lofman O, Revhaug I, Dick O (2011a) Landslide susceptibility analysis in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam using statistical index and logistic regression. Nat Hazards 59: 1413-1444. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-011-9844-2.
75. Tien Bui D, Pradhan B, Lofman O, Revhaug I, Dick OB (2011b) Landslide susceptibility mapping at Hoa Binh province (Vietnam) using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and GIS. Comput Geosci 45: 199-211. doi: 10. 1016/j. cageo. 2011. 10. 031.
76. Tien Bui D, Pradhan B, Lofman O, Revhaug I (2012a) Landslide susceptibility assessment in Vietnam using Support vector machines, Decision tree and Naïve Bayes models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. doi: 10. 1155/2012/9746382012: 26.
77. Tien Bui D, Pradhan B, Lofman O, Revhaug I, Dick OB (2012b) Landslide susceptibility assessment in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam: a comparison of the Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian regularized neural networks. Geomorphology 171-172: 12-29.
78. Tien Bui D, Pradhan B, Lofman O, Revhaug I, Dick OB (2012c) Landslide susceptibility mapping at Hoa Binh province (Vietnam) using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and GIS. Comput Geosci 45: 199-211. doi: 10. 1016/j. cageo. 2011. 10. 031.
79. Tien Bui D, Pradhan B, Lofman O, Revhaug I, Dick OB (2012d) Spatial prediction of landslide hazards in Hoa Binh province (Vietnam): a comparative assessment of the efficacy of evidential belief functions and fuzzy logic models. Catena 96: 28-40. doi: 10. 1016/j. catena. 2012. 04. 001.
80. van Westen CJ, van Asch TWJ, Soeters R (2006) Landslide hazard and risk zonation-why is it still so difficult? Bull Eng Geol Env 65: 167-184. doi: 10. 1007/s10064-005-0023-0.
81. Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and practice. UNESCO, Paris.
82. Wilson RC, Wieczorek GF (1995) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California. Environ Eng Geosci 1(1): 11-27.
83. Xu C, Xu XW, Dai FC, Saraf AK (2012) Comparison of different models for susceptibility mapping of earthquake triggered landslides related with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. Comput Geosci 46: 317-329. doi: 10. 1016/j. cageo. 2012. 01. 002.
84. Yao X, Tham LG, Dai FC (2008) Landslide susceptibility mapping based on support vector machine: a case study on natural slopes of Hong Kong, China. Geomorphology 101(4): 572-582. doi: 10. 1016/j. geomorph. 2008. 02. 011.
85. Yeon YK, Han JG, Ryu KH (2010) Landslide susceptibility mapping in Injae, Korea, using a decision tree. Eng Geol 116(3-4): 274-283. doi: 10. 1016/j. enggeo. 2010. 09. 009.
86. Yilmaz I (2010) Comparison of landslide susceptibility mapping methodologies for Koyulhisar, Turkey: conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machine. Environ Earth Sci 61(4): 821-836. doi: 10. 1007/s12665-009-0394-9.
87. Zare M, Pourghasemi H, Vafakhah M, Pradhan B (2012) Landslide susceptibility mapping at Vaz Watershed (Iran) using an artificial neural network model: a comparison between multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) algorithms. Arabian J Geosci: 1-16. doi: 10. 1007/s12517-012-0610-x.
88. Zezere JL, Trigo RM, Trigo IF (2005) Shallow and deep landslides induced by rainfall in the Lisbon region (Portugal): assessment of relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 5(3): 331-344.