Future scenarios to inspire innovation

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 80, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 432-443

  De Smedt, Peter ^a   Borch, Kristian ^b   Fuller, Ted ^c  

^a Research Centre of the Flemish Government   (Belgium)

^b TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK   (Denmark)

^c UNIVERSITY OF LINCOLN   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Grand challenges; Innovation; Reflexive inquiry; Scenario practice

Indexed keywords

FINANCIAL CRISIS; GLOBAL ISSUES; GOOD PRACTICES; GRAND CHALLENGE; INNOVATION SYSTEM; POLICY MAKERS; POLICY MAKING; REFLEXIVE INQUIRY; SCENARIO PRACTICE; SOCIAL DYNAMICS; SOCIOTECHNICAL; SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMS; SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION;

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

INNOVATION;

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS; EXPLOITATION; FINANCIAL CRISIS; INNOVATION; POLICY MAKING;

EID: 84873995620     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.006     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. Harries C. Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision-making?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2003, 70:797-817.
2. Greeuw S.C.H., van Asselt M.B.A., Grosskurth J., Storms C.A.M.H., Rijkens-Klomp N., Rothman D.S., Rotmans J. Cloudy Crystal Balls, An Assessment of Recent European and Global Scenario Studies And Models, Experts' Corner Report: Prospects and Scenarios 4, European Environment Agency (EEA) 2000, Copenhagen, Denmark.
3. Fuller T., De Smedt P., Rothman D. Advancing foresight methodology through networked conversation. Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making - Seville 28-29 September, 2006 2006.
4. Becker H.S. Scenarios: a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1983, 23:95-120.
5. Da Costa O., Warnke P., Cagnin C., Scapolo F. The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 2008, 20:369-387.
6. Andersen P.D., Borup M., Borch K., Kaivo-oja J., Eerola A., Finnfjörnsson T., Øverland E., Eriksson E.A., Malmér T., Mölleryd B.A. Foresight in Nordic innovation systems 2007, Nordic Innovation Centre, Oslo.
7. Chermack T.J. Studying scenario planning: theory research suggestions and hypotheses. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2005, 72:59-73.
8. Wilkinson A., Eidinow E. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology. Environ. Res. Lett. 2008, 3.
9. Boden M., Cagnin C., Carabias V., Haegeman K., Konnola T. Facing the Future: Time for the EU to Meet Global Challenges, EUR 24364 EN 2010, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, (http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC55981.pdf).
10. Cagnin C., Amanatidou E., Keenan M. Orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Proceedings of the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), FTA for Structural and Systemic Transformations in Response to Grand Societal Challenges: Integrating Insights, Transforming Institutions and Shaping Innovation Systems, Seville, 12-13 May, 2011 2011.
11. Webster A. Technologies in transition, policies in transition: foresight in the risk society. Technovation 1999, 19:413-421.
12. Linstone H. On discounting the future. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1973, 4:335-338.
13. Adam B. Futures transformed Last accessed on 31/01/12 and available at. http://www.cardiff.ac.uk./socsi/futures/wp_ba_futurestransformed231006.pdf.
14. Timmermans A. Arenas as institutional sites for policy-making: patterns and effects in comparative perspective. J. Comp. Policy Anal. Res. Pract. 2001, 3:311-337.
15. OECD Fostering innovation to address social challenges. Workshop Proceedings 2011, OECD, Paris.
16. EC Innovation Union Competitiveness Report 2011 2011, (Executive Summary), European Commission, DG Research and Innovation, Brussels.
17. Hamel G., Prahalad C.K. Competing for the Future 1994, Harvard Business School Press, Boston.
18. Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., Van Der Heijden K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 2005, 37:795-812.
19. Godet M. Integration of scenarios and strategic management: using relevant, consistent, and likely scenario. Futures 1990, 22:730-739.
20. Lindgren M., Bandhold H. Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy 2003, Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
21. Porter M.E. Competitive Advantage 1985, Free Press, New York.
22. Ringland G. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1493-1498.
23. Wilson I. From scenario thinking to strategic action. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2000, 65:23-29.
24. Carlsson B., Jacobsson S., Holmén M., Rickne A. Innovation systems: analytical and methodological issues. Res. Policy 2002, 31:233-245.
25. Rickards T. The future of innovation research. The International Handbook on Innovation 2003, Pergamon, London, UK. L.V. Shavinina (Ed.).
26. Gunderson L., Folke C., Janssen M.A. Reflective practice. Ecol. Soc. 2007, 12:40. ([online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss2/art40/).
27. Cunliffe A.L. Reflexive inquiry in organizational research: questions and possibilities. Hum. Relat. 2003, 56:983-1003.
28. Alvesson M., Sköldberg K. Reflexive Methodology: New Vistas for Qualitative Research Towards a Reflexive Methodology 2000, Sage, London.
29. De Smedt P. Interactions between foresight and decision-making. Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision-Making, Seville, 28-29 September, 2006 2006.
30. Lawson H. Reflexivity. The Post-modern Predicament 1985, Open Court, La Salle, IL.
31. Coates J.F. Future innovations in science and technology. The International Handbook on Innovation 2003, Pergamon, London. L.V. Shavinina (Ed.).
32. Leadbeater C. We-Think: The Power of Mass Creativity 2008, Profile Books, London.
33. Freeman C. The national system of innovation in historical perspective. Camb. J. Econ. 1995, 19:5-24.
34. National Systems of Innovation: Towards a Theory of Innovation and Interactive Learning 1992, Pinter, London. B.A. Lundvall (Ed.).
35. Nelson R., Winter S. In search of a useful theory of Innovation. Res. Policy 1977, 6:36-76.
36. Mytelka L.K., Smith K. Policy learning and innovation theory: an interactive and co-evolving process. Res. Policy 2002, 14:1-13.
37. Sternberg R., Pretz J., Kaufman J. Types of innovation. The International Handbook on Innovation 2003, Pergamon, London, UK. L.V. Shavinina (Ed.).
38. System of Innovation: Technologies, Institutions and Organizations 1997, Pinter publishers, London. C. Edguist (Ed.).
39. Carlsson B., Stankiewicz R. On the nature, function, and composition of technological systems. J. Evol. Econ. 1991, 1:93-118.
40. Hekkert M.P., Suurs R.A.A., Negro S.O., Kuhlmann S., Smits R.E.H.M. Functions of innovation systems: a new approach for analyzing technological change. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2007, 74:413-432.
41. M.S. Jørgensen, Visions and visioning in foresight activities, in: K. Borch, S.M. Dingli, M.S. Jorgensen (Eds.), Exploring the future. The role of interaction in foresight. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press.
42. [42]K.H. Dreborg, Scenarios and structural uncertainty, explorations in the field of sustainable transport, Doctoral thesis, KTH Infrastructure, Stockholm, 2004.
43. Beers P.J., Veldkamp A., Hermans F., van Apeldoorn D., Vervoort J.M., Kok K. Future sustainability and images. Futures 2010, 42:723-732.
44. Selin C. Time matters: temporal harmony and dissonance in nanotechnology networks. Time Soc. 2006, 15:121-139.
45. Aaltonen M. Multi-ontology, sense-making and the emergence of the future. Futures 2009, 41:279-283.
46. Marchais-Roubelat A., Roubelat F. Futures beyond disruptions. Futures 2011, 43:130-133.
47. van' t Klooster S.A., van Asselt M.B.A. Accommodating or compromising change? A story about ambitions and historic deterministic scenarios. Futures 2011, 43:86-98.
48. van Notten P.W.F., Rotmans J., van Assel M.B.A., Rothman D.S. An updated scenario typology. Futures 2003, 35:423-443.
49. Rayner S. Uncomfortable knowledge: the social construction of ignorance in science and environmental policy discourses. Econ. Soc. 2012, 41:107-125.
50. Borjesön L., Hojer M., Dreborg K.-H., Ekvall T., Finnveden G. Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures 2006, 38:723-739.
51. Wollenberg E., Edmunds D., Buck L. Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landsc. Urban Plan. 2000, 47:65-77.
52. Schoemaker P.J.H. Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Manag. Rev. 1995, 25:40.
53. Lovins A. Soft Energy Paths: Towards a Durable Peace 1977, Friends of the Earth International, San Francisco, (231pp.).
54. Rotmans J., van Asselt M.B.A., Anastasi C., Greeuw S., Mellors J., Peters S., Rothman D., Rijkens N. Visions for a sustainable Europe. Futures 2000, 32:809-831.
55. Phaal R., Farrukh C., Probert D. T-plan. The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success 2001, Centre for Technology Management, IfM University of Cambridge.
56. Gordon T.J. S&T roadmapping. Futures Research Methodology, Version 2.0 AC/UNU Millennium Project 2003, American Council for the United Nations University, Washington D.C., US. J.C. Glenn, T.J. Gordon (Eds.).
57. The Delphi Method 2002, (Last accessed 31/01/12 and available at http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook). H. Linstone, M. Turoff (Eds.).
58. Gavigan J.P., Scapolo F. A comparison of national foresight exercises. Foresight 1999, 1:495-517.
59. Georghiou L., Keenan M., Cassingena J., Miles I., Popper R. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice 2008, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK.
60. Webler T., Levine D., Rakel H., Renn D. A novel approach to reducing uncertainty the group Delphi. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 1991, 39:253-263.
61. Fuller T., De Smedt P. From oracles to dialogue. Proceedings of the Third International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impacts and Implications for Policy and Decision-making - Seville 16-17 October, 2008 2008.
62. K. Borch, F. Mérida, Dialogue in foresight: consensus and negotiation, in: K. Borch, S.M. Dingli, M.S. Jorgensen (Eds.), Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press.
63. E. Göll, Futur - the research dialogue in Germany, in: K. Borch, S.M. Dingli, M.S. Jorgensen (Eds.), Exploring the future, The role of interaction in foresight. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, in press.
64. Geyer A., Scapolo F. European manufacturing in transition - the challenge of sustainable development: four scenarios 2015-2020. Innov. Manag. Policy Pract. 2004, 6:331-343.
65. van der Heijden K. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation 1996, Wiley, Chichester.
66. Weick K. Sense-Making in Organizations 1995, Sage, London.
67. Inayatullah S. Deconstructing and reconstructing the future: predictive, cultural and critical epistemologies. Futures 1990, 22:115-141.
68. Weiner E., Brown A. Future Think: How to Think Clearly in a Time of Change, Pearson 2006, Prentice Hall, New York.
69. Beck U. Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk 1995, Polity Press, Cambridge.
70. Ricard L.M., Borch K. From Future Scenarios to Roadmapping: Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): 12 & 13 May, 2011 May 13 2011.
71. Saritas O., Aylen J. Using scenarios for roadmapping: the case of clean production. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:1061-1075.
72. Ilmola L., Kuusi O. Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making. Futures 2006, 38:908-924.
73. Prell C., Hubacek K., Reed M.S., Quinn C., Jin N., Holden J., Burt T.P., Kirby M., Sendzimir J. If you have a hammer everything looks like a nail: traditional versus participatory model building. Interdiscip. Sci. Rev. 2007, 32:1-20.
74. Funtowicz S., Ravetz J. Science for the post-normal age. Futures 1993, 25:735-755.
75. Jetter A., Schweinfort W. Building scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps: an exploratory study of solar energy. Futures 2011, 43:52-66.
76. Höijer B., Lidskog R., Uggla Y. Facing dilemmas: sense-making and decision-making in late modernity. Futures 2006, 38:350-366.
77. De Smedt P. Can Negotiating the Future Influence Policy and Social change? Paper Presented at the Future seminar of the Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, 7th of June, 2007 June 7th 2007.
78. Stirling A. A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society. J. R. Soc. Interface 2007, 4:707-719.
79. Goodwin P. Spanning boundaries: social innovation in a complex world. Fostering Innovation to Address Social challenges, Workshop Proceedings 2011, 59-64. OECD, Paris. OECD (Ed.).
80. Godet M. The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2000, 65:3-22.
81. Postma T.J.B.M., Liebl F. How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2005, 72:161-173.
82. Hauschildt J. Promoters and champions in innovations: development of a research paradigm. The International Handbook on Innovation 2003, Pergamon, London, UK. L.V. Shavinina (Ed.).