Uncertainty issues of a conceptual water balance model for a semi-arid watershed in north-west of China

Hydrological Processes

Volumn 27, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 304-312

  Li, Zhanling ^a   Shao, Quanxi ^b   Xu, Zongxue ^c   Xu, Chong Yu ^d,e  

^a CHINA UNIVERSITY OF GEOSCIENCES   (China)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c Beijing Normal University   (China)

^d UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^e UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Bootstrap; Heihe River basin; Uncertainty analysis; Yingluoxia watershed

Indexed keywords

BOOTSTRAP; BOOTSTRAP METHOD; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; HEIHE RIVER BASIN; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION; HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS; KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TEST; MARGINAL DISTRIBUTION; MODEL PARAMETERS; MODEL SIMULATION; MODELING SYSTEMS; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY; SEMI-ARID WATERSHED; SIMULATED DISCHARGES; SIMULATION UNCERTAINTY; STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS; STUDY AREAS; TWO PARAMETER; WATER BALANCE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; NORMAL DISTRIBUTION; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; STATISTICAL METHODS; WATERSHEDS;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BOOTSTRAPPING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER BUDGET; WATERSHED;

CHINA; GANSU; HEIHE BASIN;

EID: 84872202584     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: 10991085     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9258     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Abbaspour KC, Johnson CA, van Genuchten MT. 2004. Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure. Vadose Zone J. 3: 1340-1352.
2. Abbaspour KC, Sonnleitner M, Schulin R. 1999. Uncertainty in estimation of soil hydraulic parameters by inverse modelling: example lysimeter experiments. Soil Science Society of America Journal 63: 501-509.
3. Abrahart RJ. 2001. Single-Model-Bootstrap applied to neural network rainfall-runoff forecasting. Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on GeoComputation University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 24-26 September, available at http://www.geocomputation.org/2001/papers/abrahart2.pdf.
4. Bates BC, Campbell EP. 2001. A Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for parameter estimation and inference in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling. Water Resources Research 37: 937-947.
5. Beven KJ. 2000. Rainfall-runoff modelling, the Primer. Wiley: Chichester; 360.
6. Beven K, Binley A. 1992. The future of distributed models-Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes 6: 279-298.
7. Brouwer C, Heibloem M. 1986. Irrigation water management: Irrigation water needs, Part II Determination of irrigation water needs, Chapter 3.1.3 Blaney-Criddle method. available at http://www.fao.org/docrep/S2022E/s2022e07.htm#3.1.3%20blaney%20criddle%20method.
8. Carpenter TM, Georgakakos KP. 2006. Intercomparison of lumped versus distributed hydrologic model ensemble simulations on operational forecast scales. Journal of Hydrology 329: 174-185.
9. Clarke RT. 1973. A review of some mathematical models used in hydrology, with observations on their calibration and use. Journal of Hydrology 19(1): 1-20.
10. Cunderlik JM, Simonovic SP. 2007. Hydrologic models for inverse climate change impact modeling. Proceedings of the 18th Canadian Hydrotechnical Conference, Challenges for Water Resources Engineering in a Changing World Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, 22-24 August 2007, 9p.
11. Davison AC, Hinkley DV. 1997. Bootstrap methods and their application. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
12. Efron B. 1979. Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. The Annuals of Statistics. 7: 1-26.
13. Engeland K, Xu C-Y, Gottschalk L. 2005. Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal 50: 45-63.
14. Gallagher M, Doherty J. 2007. Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis for a watershed model. Environ. Modell. Softw. 22: 1000-1020.
15. Gong L, Widén-Nilsson E, Halldin S, Xu C-Y. 2009. Large-scale runoff routing with an aggregated network-response function. Journal of Hydrology 368: 237-250.
16. Hall P. 1992. The Bootstrap and Edgeworth Expansion. Springer-Verlag: New York.
17. Jin XL, Xu C-Y, Zhang Q, Singh VP. 2010. Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology 383: 147-155.
18. Kruskal WH, Wallis WA. 1952. Use of ranks in one criterion variance analysis. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. 47: 583-621.
19. Li L, Xia J, Xu C-Y, Singh VP. 2010a. Evaluation of the subjective factors of the GLUE method and comparison with the formal Bayesian method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology 390: 210-221.
20. Li ZL, Shao QX, Xu ZX, Cai XT. 2010b. Analysis of parameter uncertainty in semi-distributed hydrological models using bootstrap method: A case study of SWAT model applied to Yingluoxia watershed in northwest China. Journal of Hydrology 385: 76-83.
21. Michaud J, Sorooshian S. 1993. Comparison of simple versus complex distributed runoff models on a midsized semiarid watershed. Water Resources Research 30: 593-605.
22. Mugunthan P, Shoemaker CA. 2006. Assessing the impacts of parameter uncertainty for computationally expensive groundwater models. Water Resources Research 42: W10428, DOI: 10.1029/2005WR004640.
23. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV. 1970. River flow forecasting through conceptual models: Part 1. A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 10(3): 282-290.
24. Qi SZ, Luo F. 2006. Land-use change and its environmental impact in the Heihe River Basin, arid northwestern China. Environmental Geology 50: 535-540.
25. Refsgaard JC, Knudsen J. 1996. Operational validation and intercomparison of different types of hydrological models. Water Resources Research 32: 2189-2202.
26. Seibert J. 1997. Estimation of Parameter Uncertainty in the HBV Model. Nordic Hydrology 28: 247-262.
27. Selle B, Hannah M. 2010. A bootstrap approach to assess parameter uncertainty in simple catchment models. Environ. Modell. Softw. 25: 919-926.
28. Srinivas VV, Srinivasan K. 2005. Matched block bootstrap for resampling multiseason hydrologic time series. Hydrological Processes 19: 3659-3682.
29. Stine RA. 1985. Bootstrap prediction intervals for regression. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 80(392): 1026-1031.
30. Vrugt JA, Bouten W. 2002. Validity of first-order approximations to describe parameter uncertainty in soil hydrologic models. Soil Science Society of America Journal 66: 1740-1751.
31. Van Griensven A, Meixner T. 2006. Methods to quantify and identify the sources of uncertainty for river basin water quality models. Water Science and Technology 53: 51-59.
32. Widén-Nilsson E, Halldin S, Xu C-Y. 2007. Global water-balance modelling with WASMOD-M: Parameter estimation and regionalisation. Journal of Hydrology 340: 105-118.
33. Widén-Nilsson E, Gong L, Halldin S, Xu C-Y. 2009. Model performance and parameter behavior for varying time aggregations and evaluation criteria in the WASMOD-M global water-balance model. Water Resources Research 45: W05418, DOI: 10.1029/2007WR006695.
34. Xu C-Y. 2001. Statistical analysis of parameters and residuals of a conceptual Water Balance Model - methodology and case study. Water Resour. Manag. 15: 75-92.
35. Xu C-Y. 2002. WASMOD-The Water And Snow balance MODelling system. In Mathematical Models of Small Watershed Hydrology and Applications, (Ch. 17) Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds). Water Resources Publications, LLC: Chelsea, Michigan, USA.
36. Yang J, Reichert P, Abbaspour KC. 2007a. Bayesian uncertainty analysis in distributed hydrological modelling: A case study in the Thur River basin (Switzerland). Water Resources Research 43: W10401, DOI: 10.1029/2006WR005497.
37. Yang J, Reichert P, Abbaspour KC, Yang H. 2007b. Hydrological modelling of the Chaohe Basin in China: Statistical model formulation and Bayesian inference. Journal of Hydrology 340: 67-182.
38. Zhao D, Zhang W. 2005. Rainfall-runoff simulation using the VIC-3L model over the Heihe River mountainous basin. China. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium 6: 4391-4394.