메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 50, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 45-63

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology;Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d'une modé lisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis; Maximum likelihood estimation; Model uncertainty; Water balance models

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHMS; HYDROLOGY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION; MODEL STRUCTURES; RAIN; STATISTICAL METHODS; UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS;

EID: 13244265879     PISSN: 02626667     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1623/hysj.50.1.45.56334     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (109)

References (42)
  • 1
    • 0021640759 scopus 로고
    • On the treatment of evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting and aquifer recharge in monthly water balance models
    • Alley, W. M. (1984) On the treatment of evapotranspiration, soil moisture accounting and aquifer recharge in monthly water balance models. Water Resour. Res. 20(8), 1137-1149.
    • (1984) Water Resour. Res. , vol.20 , Issue.8 , pp. 1137-1149
    • Alley, W.M.1
  • 2
    • 0035452259 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of imperfect rainfall knowledge on the efficiency and the parameters of watershed models
    • Andréassian, V., Perrin, C., Michel, C., Usart-Sanchez, I. & Lavabre, J. (2001) Impact of imperfect rainfall knowledge on the efficiency and the parameters of watershed models, J. Hydrol. 250, 206-223.
    • (2001) J. Hydrol. , vol.250 , pp. 206-223
    • Andréassian, V.1    Perrin, C.2    Michel, C.3    Usart-sanchez, I.4    Lavabre, J.5
  • 3
    • 0036646801 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE
    • Aronica, G., Bates, P. D. & Horritt, M. S. (2002) Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE. Hydrol. Processes 16(10), 2001-2016.
    • (2002) Hydrol. Processes , vol.16 , Issue.10 , pp. 2001-2016
    • Aronica, G.1    Bates, P.D.2    Horritt, M.S.3
  • 4
    • 0036467537 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-criteria validation of a precipitation-runoff model
    • Beldring, S. (2002) Multi-criteria validation of a precipitation-runoff model, J. Hydrol. 257, 189-211.
    • (2002) J. Hydrol. , vol.257 , pp. 189-211
    • Beldring, S.1
  • 5
    • 13244278478 scopus 로고
    • The future of distributed models - Model calibration and ancertainty prediction
    • Beven, K. J. & Binley, A. M. (1992) The future of distributed models - model calibration and ancertainty prediction. Hydrol. Processes 15, 509-711.
    • (1992) Hydrol. Processes , vol.15 , pp. 509-711
    • Beven, K.J.1    Binley, A.M.2
  • 6
    • 0002234050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The use of generalised likelihood measures for uncertainty estimation in high order models of environmental systems
    • (ed. by W.J. Fitzgerald, R.L. Smith, A.T. Walden & P.C. Young). Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Beven, K. J., Freer, J., Hankin, B. & Schulz, K. (2000) The use of generalised likelihood measures for uncertainty estimation in high order models of environmental systems. In: Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing (ed. by W. J. Fitzgerald, R. L. Smith, A. T. Walden & P. C. Young), 115-151. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing , pp. 115-151
    • Beven, K.J.1    Freer, J.2    Hankin, B.3    Schulz, K.4
  • 7
    • 32344446687 scopus 로고
    • Understanding the Metropolis-Hasting Algorithm
    • Chib, S. & Greenberg, E. (1995) Understanding the Metropolis-Hasting Algorithm. The American Statistician 49(4), 327- 335.
    • (1995) The American Statistician , vol.49 , Issue.4 , pp. 327-335
    • Chib, S.1    Greenberg, E.2
  • 8
    • 0033552077 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty in the estimation of mean annual flood due to rating-curve indefinition
    • Clarke, R. T. (1999) Uncertainty in the estimation of mean annual flood due to rating-curve indefinition. J. Hydrol. 222, 185-190.
    • (1999) J. Hydrol. , vol.222 , pp. 185-190
    • Clarke, R.T.1
  • 9
    • 0034064603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainties in mean discharges from two large South American rivers due to rating curve variability
    • Clarke, R. T., Mendiondo, E. M. & Brusa, L. C. (2000). Uncertainties in mean discharges from two large South American rivers due to rating curve variability. Hydrol. Sci. 45(2), 221-236.
    • (2000) Hydrol. Sci. , vol.45 , Issue.2 , pp. 221-236
    • Clarke, R.T.1    Mendiondo, E.M.2    Brusa, L.C.3
  • 10
    • 0026445234 scopus 로고
    • Effective and efficient global optimisation for conceptual rainfall-runoff models
    • Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S. & Gupta, V. (1992). Effective and efficient global optimisation for conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resour. Res. 28(4), 1015-1031.
    • (1992) Water Resour. Res. , vol.28 , Issue.4 , pp. 1015-1031
    • Duan, Q.1    Sorooshian, S.2    Gupta, V.3
  • 11
    • 0036821589 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model
    • Engeland, K. & Gottschalk, L. (2002) Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model. Hydrol. Earth System Sci. 6 5), 883-898.
    • (2002) Hydrol. Earth System Sci. , vol.6 , Issue.5 , pp. 883-898
    • Engeland, K.1    Gottschalk, L.2
  • 14
    • 84972511893 scopus 로고
    • Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo
    • Geyer, C. J. (1992) Practical Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Statist. Sci. 7(4), 473-483.
    • (1992) Statist. Sci. , vol.7 , Issue.4 , pp. 473-483
    • Geyer, C.J.1
  • 16
    • 0035366980 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using CFD in a GLUE framework to model the flow and dispersion characteristics of a natural fluvial dead zone
    • Hankin, B. G., Hardy R., Kettle, H. & Beven, K. J. (2001) Using CFD in a GLUE framework to model the flow and dispersion characteristics of a natural fluvial dead zone. Earth Surf Processes Landf 26(6 , 667-687.
    • (2001) Earth Surf Processes Landf. , vol.26 , Issue.6 , pp. 667-687
    • Hankin, B.G.1    Hardy, R.2    Kettle, H.3    Beven, K.J.4
  • 17
    • 77956890234 scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications
    • Hastings, W. K. (1970) Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrica 57, 97-109.
    • (1970) Biometrica , vol.57 , pp. 97-109
    • Hastings, W.K.1
  • 18
    • 0343081554 scopus 로고
    • Harwell Subroutines Library, HMSO, London, UK
    • Hopper, M. J. (1978) A Catalogue of Subroutines. Harwell Subroutines Library, HMSO, London, UK.
    • (1978) A Catalogue of Subroutines
    • Hopper, M.J.1
  • 19
    • 1242277587 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Methodological and personal uncertainties in the establishment of rating curves
    • (ed. by A. Killingtveit) (Nordic Association for Hydrology, Rø ros, Norway, 4-7 August 2002). NHP Report no. 47
    • Jónsson, P., Petersen-Øverleir, A., Nilsson, E., Edström, M., Iversen, H. L. & Sirvio, H. (2002). Methodological and personal uncertainties in the establishment of rating curves. In: XXII Nordic Hydrological Conference (ed. by A. Killingtveit) (Nordic Association for Hydrology, Røros, Norway, 4-7 August 2002 . NHP Report no. 47, vol. 1, 35-44.
    • (2002) XXII Nordic Hydrological Conference , vol.1 , pp. 35-44
    • Jónsson, P.1    Petersen-øverleir, A.2    Nilsson, E.3    Edström, M.4    Iversen, H.L.5    Sirvio, H.6
  • 20
    • 0032853041 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model
    • Krzysztofowicz, R. (1999) Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model. Water Resour. Res. 35 9), 2739-2750.
    • (1999) Water Resour. Res. , vol.35 , Issue.9 , pp. 2739-2750
    • Krzysztofowicz, R.1
  • 21
    • 0020969493 scopus 로고
    • Improved parameter inference in catchment models 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty
    • Kuczera, G. (1983) Improved parameter inference in catchment models 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty. Water Resour. Res. 19(5), 1151-1162.
    • (1983) Water Resour. Res. , vol.19 , Issue.5 , pp. 1151-1162
    • Kuczera, G.1
  • 22
    • 0029662858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correlated rating curve in flood frequency inference
    • Kuczera, G. (1996) Correlated rating curve in flood frequency inference. Water Resour. Res. 32(7), 2119-2127.
    • (1996) Water Resour. Res. , vol.32 , Issue.7 , pp. 2119-2127
    • Kuczera, G.1
  • 23
    • 0032214428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo assessment of parameter uncertainty in conceptual catchment models: The Metropolis algorithm
    • Kuczera, G. & Parent, E. (1998) Monte Carlo assessment of parameter uncertainty in conceptual catchment models: the Metropolis algorithm. J. Hydrol. 211, 69-85.
    • (1998) J. Hydrol. , vol.211 , pp. 69-85
    • Kuczera, G.1    Parent, E.2
  • 24
    • 0023483811 scopus 로고
    • On the accuracy of areal rainfall estimation: A case study
    • Lebel, T. Bastin, G., Obled, C. & Creutin, D. (1987) On the accuracy of areal rainfall estimation: a case study. Water Resour. Res. 23 11), 2123-2134.
    • (1987) Water Resour. Res. , vol.23 , Issue.11 , pp. 2123-2134
    • Lebel, T.1    Bastin, G.2    Obled, C.3    Creutin, D.4
  • 25
    • 0034739246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives
    • Madsen, H. (2000) Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives, J. Hydrol. 235, 276-288.
    • (2000) J. Hydrol. , vol.235 , pp. 276-288
    • Madsen, H.1
  • 26
    • 0017955229 scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity of optimized parameters in watershed models
    • Mein, R. G. & Brown, B. M. (1978) Sensitivity of optimized parameters in watershed models. Water Resour. Res. 14, 299-303.
    • (1978) Water Resour. Res. , vol.14 , pp. 299-303
    • Mein, R.G.1    Brown, B.M.2
  • 27
    • 0344514751 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of monthly river discharge from Danish catchments
    • Müller-Wohlfeil, D. I., Xu, C.-Y. & Iversen, H. L. (2003). Estimation of monthly river discharge from Danish catchments. Nordic Hydrol. 34(4), 295-320.
    • (2003) Nordic Hydrol. , vol.34 , Issue.4 , pp. 295-320
    • Müller-Wohlfeil, D.I.1    Xu, C.-Y.2    Iversen, H.L.3
  • 28
    • 13244299747 scopus 로고
    • NAG Fortran Subroutine Library E04XAF NAG Fortran Library Routine Document, NP1490/13
    • NAG Fortran Subroutine Library (1981) E04XAF NAG Fortran Library Routine Document, NP1490/13.
    • (1981)
  • 29
    • 0002151230 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Construction, calibration and validation of hydrological models
    • (ed. by M. B. Abbott & J. C. Refsgaard). Water Science and Technology Library, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Refsgaard, J. C. & Storm, B. (1996) Construction, calibration and validation of hydrological models. In: Distributed Hydrological Modelling (ed. by M. B. Abbott & J. C. Refsgaard), 41-54. Water Science and Technology Library, vol. 22, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
    • (1996) Distributed Hydrological Modelling , vol.22 , pp. 41-54
    • Refsgaard, J.C.1    Storm, B.2
  • 30
    • 0012496377 scopus 로고
    • Application of Kalman filter to real-time operation and to uncertainty analyses in hydrological modelling
    • (ed. by E. Plate & N. Buras). IAHS Publ. 147. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK
    • Refsgaard, J. C., Rosbjerg, D. & Markussen, L. M. (1983), Application of Kalman filter to real-time operation and to uncertainty analyses in hydrological modelling. In: Scientific Procedures Applied to the Planning, Design and Management of Water Resource Systems (ed. by E. Plate & N. Buras), 273-282. IAHS Publ. 147. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
    • (1983) Scientific Procedures Applied to the Planning, Design and Management of Water Resource Systems , pp. 273-282
    • Refsgaard, J.C.1    Rosbjerg, D.2    Markussen, L.M.3
  • 31
    • 0019227508 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic parameter estimation procedures for hydrologic rainfall-runoff models: Correlated and heteroscedastic error cases
    • Sorooshian, S. & Dracup, J. A. (1980) Stochastic parameter estimation procedures for hydrologic rainfall-runoff models: correlated and heteroscedastic error cases. Water Resour. Res. 16(2), 430-442.
    • (1980) Water Resour. Res. , vol.16 , Issue.2 , pp. 430-442
    • Sorooshian, S.1    Dracup, J.A.2
  • 32
    • 0028322711 scopus 로고
    • Parameter uncertainty interaction in complex environmental models
    • Spear, R. C., Grieb, T. M. & Shang, N. (1994) Parameter uncertainty interaction in complex environmental models. Water Resour. Res. 30(11), 3159-3169.
    • (1994) Water Resour. Res. , vol.30 , Issue.11 , pp. 3159-3169
    • Spear, R.C.1    Grieb, T.M.2    Shang, N.3
  • 33
    • 0024165318 scopus 로고
    • Estimation of catchment rainfall uncertainty and its influence on runoff predictions
    • Storm, B., Jansen, K. H. & Refsgaard, J. C. (1988) Estimation of catchment rainfall uncertainty and its influence on runoff predictions. Nordic Hydrol. 19, 77-88.
    • (1988) Nordic Hydrol. , vol.19 , pp. 77-88
    • Storm, B.1    Jansen, K.H.2    Refsgaard, J.C.3
  • 34
    • 0035961449 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessment of uncertainty in simulation of nitrate leaching to aquifers at catchment scale
    • Thorsen, M., Refsgaard, J. C., Hansen, S., Pebesma, E., Jensen, J. B. & Kleeschulte, S. (2001) Assessment of uncertainty in simulation of nitrate leaching to aquifers at catchment scale. J. Hydrol. 242 210-227.
    • (2001) J. Hydrol. , vol.242 , pp. 210-227
    • Thorsen, M.1    Refsgaard, J.C.2    Hansen, S.3    Pebesma, E.4    Jensen, J.B.5    Kleeschulte, S.6
  • 35
    • 0026880919 scopus 로고
    • Methodology and comparative study on monthly water balance models in Belgium, China and Burma
    • Vandewiele, G. L., Xu, C.-Y. & Ni-Lar-Win (1992) Methodology and comparative study on monthly water balance models in Belgium, China and Burma. J. Hydrol. 134, 315-347.
    • (1992) J. Hydrol. , vol.134 , pp. 315-347
    • Vandewiele, G.L.1    Xu, C.-Y.2    Ni-lar-win, A.3
  • 36
    • 1542757127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A shuffled complex evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters
    • doi:10.1029/2002WR001642
    • Vrugt, J. A., Gupta, H. V., Bastidas, L. A., Bouten, W. & Sorooshian, S. (2003) A shuffled complex evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters. Water Resour. Res. 39(8), 39, doi:10.1029 /2002WR001642.
    • (2003) Water Resour. Res. , vol.39 , Issue.8 , pp. 39
    • Vrugt, J.A.1    Gupta, H.V.2    Bastidas, L.A.3    Bouten, W.4    Sorooshian, S.5
  • 37
    • 0037442971 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling: Dynamic identifiability analysis
    • Wagener, T., McIntyre, N., Lees, M. J., Wheater, H. S. & Gupta, H. V. (2003) Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling: dynamic identifiability analysis. Hydrol. Processes 17, 455-476.
    • (2003) Hydrol. Processes , vol.17 , pp. 455-476
    • Wagener, T.1    McIntyre, N.2    Lees, M.J.3    Wheater, H.S.4    Gupta, H.V.5
  • 38
    • 0033237190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of parameters of a conceptual water balance model for ungauged catchments
    • Xu, C.-Y. (1999) Estimation of parameters of a conceptual water balance model for ungauged catchments. Water Resour. Manage. 13(5), 353-368.
    • (1999) Water Resour. Manage. , vol.13 , Issue.5 , pp. 353-368
    • Xu, C.-Y.1
  • 39
    • 0035314733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical analysis of parameters and residuals of a conceptual water balance model - Methodology and case study
    • Xu, C.-Y. (2001) Statistical analysis of parameters and residuals of a conceptual water balance model - methodology and case study. Water Resour. Manage. 15, 75-92.
    • (2001) Water Resour. Manage. , vol.15 , pp. 75-92
    • Xu, C.-Y.1
  • 40
    • 13244282025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WASMOD - The Water And Snow balance MODelling system
    • (ed. by V.P. Singh & D.K. Frevert), Ch. 17. Water Resources Publications, LLC, Chelsea, Michigan, USA
    • Xu, C.-Y. (2002) WASMOD - The Water And Snow balance MODelling system. In: Mathematical Models of Small Watershed Hydrology and Applications (ed. by V. P. Singh & D. K. Frevert), Ch. 17. Water Resources Publications, LLC, Chelsea, Michigan, USA.
    • (2002) Mathematical Models of Small Watershed Hydrology and Applications
    • Xu, C.-Y.1
  • 41
    • 0030131273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional water balance modelling in the NOPEX area: Development and application of monthly water balance models
    • Xu, C.-Y., Seibert, J. & Halldin, S. (1996) Regional water balance modelling in the NOPEX area: development and application of monthly water balance models. J. Hydrol. 180, 211-236.
    • (1996) J. Hydrol. , vol.180 , pp. 211-236
    • Xu, C.-Y.1    Seibert, J.2    Halldin, S.3
  • 42
    • 0032579570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-objective global optimisation for hydrologic models
    • Yapo, P. O., Gupta, H. V. & Sorooshian, S. (1998) Multi-objective global optimisation for hydrologic models. J. Hydrol. 204, 83-97.
    • (1998) J. Hydrol. , vol.204 , pp. 83-97
    • Yapo, P.O.1    Gupta, H.V.2    Sorooshian, S.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.