Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem

Ostrich

Volumn 83, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 119-136

  Ogutu, Joseph O ^a,b   Piepho, Hans Peter ^a   Dublin, Holly T ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HOHENHEIM   (Germany)

^b INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Kenya)

^c SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL BIODIVERSITY INSTITUTE   (South Africa)

Author keywords

climate change; group size; rainfall; recruitment dynamics; sex ratio; Struthio camelus massaicus

Indexed keywords

ANIMALIA; STRUTHIO CAMELUS; STRUTHIONIFORMES; UNGULATA;

EID: 84870891266     PISSN: 00306525     EISSN: 1727947X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2989/00306525.2012.735713     Document Type: Article

References (152)

1. Ainley, DG, Spear, LB, Allen, SG and Ribic, CA. 1996. Temporal and spatial patterns in the diet of the Common Murre in California waters. Condor, 98: 691-705.
2. Allan, RP and Soden, B. 2008. Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation patterns. Science, 321: 1481-1484.
3. 2 sensitivity of extreme climate events in the western United States. Earth Interactions, 10: 1-17.
4. Bell, JL, Sloan, LC and Snyder, MA. 2004. Regional changes in extreme climatic events: a future climate scenario. Journal of Climate, 17: 81-87.
5. Beniston, M and Diaz, HF. 2004. The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland. Global and Planetary Change, 44: 73-81.
6. Beniston, M and Stephenson, DB. 2004. Extreme climatic events and their evolution under changing climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change, 44: 1-9.
7. Bertram, BCR. 1979. Ostriches recognise their own eggs and discard others. Nature, 279: 233-234.
8. Bertram, BCR. 1980. Vigilance and group size in ostriches. Animal Behaviour, 28: 278-286.
9. Bertram, BCR. 1981. Are ostrich Struthio camelus eggs the wrong colour?. Ibis, 123: 207-210.
10. Bertram, BCR. 1992. The ostrich communal nesting system, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
11. Bhola, N, Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Said, MY, Reid, RS, Hobbs, NT and Olff, H. 2012. Comparative changes in density and demography of large herbivores in the Masai Mara Reserve and its surrounding human-dominated pastoral ranches in Kenya. Biodiversity Conservation, 21: 1509-1530.
12. Black, E, Slingo, J and Sperber, KR. 2003. An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Monthly Weather Review, 131: 74-94.
13. Boutton, TW, Tieszen, LL and Imbamba, SK. 1988a. Biomass dynamics of grassland vegetation in Kenya. African Journal of Ecology, 26: 89-101.
14. Boutton, TW, Tieszen, LL and Imbamba, SK. 1988b. Seasonal changes in the nutrient of East African grassland vegetation. African Journal of Ecology, 26: 103-115.
15. Bowden, JH and Semazzi, FHM. 2007. Empirical analysis of intraseasonal climate variability over the Greater Horn of Africa. Journal of Climate, 20: 5715-5731.
16. Bronneberg, RGC, Stegeman, JA, Vermooji, JCM, Dieleeman, SJ, Decuypere, E, Bruggeman, V and Taverne, MAM. 2007. Changes in numbers of large ovarian follicles, plasma luteinizing hormone and estradiol-17β concentrations and egg production figures in farmed ostriches throughout the year. Theriogenology, 67: 1492-1502.
17. Brown LH Urban EK Newman K. The birds of Africa vol 1 Academic Press London 1982
18. Burger, J and Gochfeld, M. 1988. Effects of group size and sex on vigilance in ostriches (Struthio camelus): antipredator strategy or mate competition?. Ostrich, 59: 14-20.
19. Burnham, KP and Anderson, DR. 2002. Model selection and multi-model inference, 2nd edn, New York: Springer.
20. Camberlin, P and Philippon, N. 2002. The East African March-May rainy season: associated dynamics and predictability over the 1968-1997 period. Journal of Climate, 15: 1002-1019.
21. Chou C, Tu J-Y, Tan P-H. 2007. Asymmetry of tropical precipitation change under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17708. doi:10.1029/2007GL030327.
22. Clark, CS, Grimm, EC, Donovan, JJ, Fritz, SC, Engstrom, DR and Almendinger, JE. 2003. Drought cycles and landscape responses to past aridity on prairies of the northern Great Plains, USA. Ecology, 83: 595-601.
23. Clements, J. 2007. The Clements checklist of the birds of the world, 6th edn, Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press.
24. Coe, MJ, Cumming, DH and Phillipson, J. 1976. Biomass and production of large African herbivores in relation to rainfall and primary production. Oecologia, 22: 341-354.
25. Cooper, RG, Mahrose, KMA, Horbańczu, JO, Villegas-Vizcaíno, R, Sebel, SK and Mohammed, AEF. 2009. The wild ostrich (Struthio camelus): a review. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 41: 1669-1678.
26. Cooper, SM and Palmer, T. 1994. Observations on the dietary choice of free ranging juvenile ostriches. Ostrich, 65: 251-255.
27. Cramp S, Simons KEL. 1977. The birds of the Western Palearctic, vol. 1. London: Oxford University Press.
28. Davies, SJJF. 2003. "Ostriches". In Grzimek's animal life encyclopedia, Birds I Tinamous and Ratites to Hoatzins, 2nd edn, Edited by: Hutchins, M. Vol. 8, 99-101. Farmington Hills: Gale Group.
29. Davies, SJJF and Bertram, BCR. 2003. "Ostrich". In Firefly encyclopedia of birds, Edited by: Perrins, C. 34-37. Buffalo, New York: Firefly Books.
30. del Hoyo J, Elliot A, Sargatal J (eds). 1992. Handbook of the birds of the world, vol. I: Ostrich to ducks. Barcelona: Lynx Edicions.
31. Deshmukh, IK. 1984. A common relationship between precipitation and grassland peak biomass for east and southern Africa. African Journal of Ecology, 22: 181-186.
32. Diaz-Delgado, R, Lloret, F, Pons, X and Terradas, J. 2003. Satellite evidence of decreasing resilience in Mediterranean plant communities after recurrent wildfires. Ecology, 83: 2293-2303.
33. Donegan K. 2002. Struthio camelus. Animal Diversity Web, University of Michigan Museum of Zoology. Available at http://animaldiversity.ummz.umich.edu/accounts/Struthio_camelus/ [accessed 1 November 2010].
34. Easterling, W, Aggrawal, P, Baston, P, Brander, KM, Erda, L, Howden, SM, Kirilenko, A, Morton, J, Soussana, J-F, Schmidhuber, J and Tubiello, FN. 2007. "Food, fibre and forest products". In Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contributions of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Edited by: Parry, ML, Canziani, OF, Palutikof, JP, van der Linden, PJ and Hanson, CE. 273-313. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
35. Emori S, Brown SJ. 2005. Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L17706. doi:10.1029/2005GL023272.
36. Epp HJ, Agatsiva J. 1980. Habitat types of the Mara-Narok area, western Kenya. Technical Report no. 20. Nairobi: Kenya Rangelands Ecological Monitoring Unit.
37. Folland, CK, Palmer, TN and Parker, DE. 1986. Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures. Nature, 320: 602-606.
38. Freitag, S and Robinson, TJ. 1993. Phylogeographic patterns in mitochondrial DNA of the Ostrich (Struthio camelus). Auk, 110: 614-622.
39. Fritz, H and Duncan, P. 1994. On the carrying capacity for large ungulates of African savanna ecosystems. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, 256: 77-82.
40. Funk, C, Dettinger, MD, Michaelsen, JC, Verdin, JP, Brown, ME, Barlow, M and Hoell, A. 2008. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 105: 11081-11086.
41. Gasparrini, A. 2011. Distributed lag linear and non-linear models in R: the package dlnm. Journal of Statistical Software, 43: 1-20.
42. Gasparrini, A, Armstrong, B and Kenward, MG. 2010. Distributed lag non-linear models. Statistics in Medicine, 29: 2224-2234.
43. Georgiadis, N and McNaughton, SJ. 1990. Elemental and fiber contents of savanna grasses: variation with grazing, soil type, season and species. Journal of Applied Ecology, 27: 623-634.
44. Gienapp, P, Teplitsky, C, Alho, JS, Mills, JA and Merillä, J. 2008. Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Molecular Ecology, 17: 167-178.
45. Grant, PR. 1999. Ecology and evolution of Darwin's Finches, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
46. Handford, P and Mares, MA. 1985. The mating system of ratites and tinamous: an evolutionary perspective. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 25: 77-104.
47. Hansen, J, Sato, M, Ruedy, R, Lo, K, Lea, DW and Medina-Elizade, M. 2006. Global temperature change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 103: 14288-14293.
48. Hare W. 2003. Assessment of knowledge on impacts of climate change. Berlin: German Advisory Council on Global Change. Available at http://www.wbgu.de/fileadmin/templates/dateien/veroeffentlichungen/sondergutachten/sn2003/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf [accessed October 2012].
49. Hassan, SM, Siam, AA, Mady, ME and Catwright, AL. 2004. Incubation temperature for ostrich (Struthio camelus) eggs. Poultry Science, 83: 495-499.
50. Hayward, MW. 2006. Prey preferences of the spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) and degree of dietary overlap with the lion (Panthera leo). Journal of Zoology, 270: 606-614.
51. Hayward, MW, Henschel, P, O'Brien, J, Hofmeyr, M, Balme, G and Kerley, GIH. 2006a. Prey preferences of the leopard (Panthera pardus). Journal of Zoology, 270: 298-313.
52. Hayward, MW, Hofmeyr, M, Henschel, P, O'Brien, J and Kerley, GIH. 2006b. Prey preferences of the cheetah (Acinonyx jabatus) (Felidae: Carnivora): morphological limitations or the need to capture rapidly consumable prey before kleptoparasites arrive?. Journal of Zoology, 270: 615-627.
53. Hayward, MW and Kerley, GIH. 2005. Prey preferences of the lion (Panthera leo). Journal of Zoology, 267: 309-322.
54. Homewood, K, Lambin, EF, Coast, E, Kariuki, A, Kikula, I, Kivelia, J, Said, M, Serneels, S and Thompson, M. 2001. Long-term changes in Mara-Serengeti wildlife and land cover: pastoralists, population or policies?. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 98: 12544-12549.
55. Hopcraft, JGC, Sinclair, ARE and Packer, C. 2005. Planning for success: Serengeti lions seek prey accessibility rather than abundance. Journal of Animal Ecology, 74: 559-566.
56. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
57. Hurxthal LM. 1979. Breeding behaviour of the ostrich Struthio camelus massaicus Neumann in the Nairobi National Park. PhD thesis. University of Nairobi Kenya
58. Jaksic, FM, Silva, SI, Meserve, PL and Gutierrez, JR. 1997. A long-term study of vertebrate predator responses to an El Niño (ENSO) disturbance in western South America. Oikos, 78: 341-354.
59. Jarvis, MJF, Jarvis, C and Keffen, RH. 1985. Breeding seasons and laying patterns of the southern African ostrich Struthio camelus. Ibis, 127: 442-449.
60. Kenward, MG and Roger, JH. 1997. Small sample inference for fixed effects from restricted maximum likelihood. Biometrics, 53: 983-997.
61. Kerr, RA. 1999. Big El Niños ride the back of slower climate change. Science, 283: 1108-1109.
62. Kimele, CN and Graves, JA. 2003. A molecular analysis of the communal nesting of the ostrich (Struthio camelus). Molecular Ecology, 12: 229-236.
63. Lamprey, RH and Reid, RS. 2004. Expansion of human settlement in Kenya's Maasai Mara: what future for pastoralism and wildlife?. Journal of Biogeography, 31: 997-1032.
64. Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. American Naturalist, 142: 911-927.
65. Leuthold, W. 1977. Notes on the breeding biology of the ostrich Struthio camelus in Tsavo East National Park, Kenya. Ibis, 119: 541-544.
66. Lobell, DB, Marshall, BB, Tebaldi, C, Mastrandrea, MD, Falcon, WP and Naylor, RL. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319: 607-610.
67. Lyon, BE, Chaine, AS and Winkler, DW. 2008. A matter of timing. Science, 321: 1051-1052.
68. Maclean, GL. 1996. Ecophysiology of desert birds, Berlin: Springer.
69. Magige FJ. 2007. The ecology and behaviour of the Masai Ostrich, Struthio camelus massaicus in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania. PhD thesis. Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim, Norway
70. Magige, FJ, Stokke, BG, Sortland, R and Røskraft, E. 2009. Breeding biology of ostriches (Struthio camelus) in the Serengeti, Tanzania. African Journal of Ecology, 47: 400-408.
71. Mati, BM, Mutie, S, Gadain, H, Home, P and Mtalo, F. 2008. Impacts of use/cover changes on the hydrology of the transboundary Mara River, Kenya/Tanzania. Lakes and Reservoirs: Research and Management, 13: 169-177.
72. McNaughton, SJ. 1985. Ecology of a grazing ecosystem: Serengeti. Ecological Monographs, 55: 259-294.
73. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Tebaldi C. 2005. Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulation. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L18719. doi:10.1029/2005GL023680.
74. Mills, MGL, Biggs, HC and Whyte, IJ. 1995. The relationship between rainfall, lion predation, and population trends in African herbivores. Wildlife Research, 22: 75-88.
75. Milton, SJ, Dean, WRJ and Siegfried, WR. 1994. Food selection by ostrich in southern Africa. Journal of Wildlife Management, 58: 234-248.
76. Morris, DL, Western, D and Maitumo, D. 2009. Pastoralist's livestock and settlements influence game bird diversity and abundance in a savanna ecosystem of Southern Kenya. African Journal of Ecology, 47: 48-55.
77. Nager, RG. 2006. The challenge of making eggs. Ardea, 94: 323-346.
78. Nicholson, SE. 2000. The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millennia. Global and Planetary Change, 26: 137-158.
79. Norton-Griffiths, M, Herlocker, DJ and Pennycuick, L. 1975. The patterns of rainfall in the Serengeti ecosystem. East African Wildlife Journal, 13: 347-374.
80. Norton-Griffiths, M, Said, MY, Serneels, S, Kaelo, DS, Coughenour, M, Lamprey, RH, Thompson, DM and Reid, RS. 2008. "Land use economics in the Mara area of the Serengeti ecosystem". In Serengeti III: human impacts on ecosystem dynamics, Edited by: Sinclair, ARE, Packer, C, Mduma, SAR and Fryxell, JM. 379-416. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
81. Ogallo, LJ. 1988. Relationships between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, 8: 31-43.
82. Ogutu, JO, Bhola, N, Piepho, H-P and Reid, RS. 2006. Efficiency of strip and line-transect surveys of African savanna mammals. Journal of Zoology, 269: 149-160.
83. Ogutu, JO, Bhola, N and Reid, R. 2005. The effects of pastoralism and protection on the density and distribution of carnivores and their prey in the Mara ecosystem of Kenya. Journal of Zoology, 265: 281-293.
84. Ogutu, JO and Owen-Smith, N. 2003. ENSO, rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates. Ecology Letters, 6: 412-419.
85. Ogutu, JO and Owen-Smith, N. 2005. Oscillations in large mammal populations: are they related to predation or rainfall?. African Journal of Ecology, 43: 332-339.
86. Ogutu, JO, Owen-Smith, N, Piepho, H-P and Said, MY. 2011b. Continuing wildlife population declines and range contraction in the Mara region of Kenya during 1977-2009. Journal of Zoology, 285: 99-109.
87. Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Dublin, HT, Bhola, N and Reid, RS. 2007. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, rainfall, temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index fluctuations in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. African Journal of Ecology, 46: 132-143.
88. Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Dublin, HT, Bhola, N and Reid, RS. 2008. Rainfall influences on ungulate population abundance in the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. Journal of Animal Ecology, 77: 814-829.
89. Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Dublin, HT, Bhola, N and Reid, RS. 2009. Dynamics of Mara-Serengeti ungulates in relation to land use changes. Journal of Zoology, 278: 1-14.
90. Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Dublin, HT, Bhola, N and Reid, RS. 2010. Rainfall extremes explain interannual shifts in timing and synchrony of breeding in topi and warthog. Population Ecology, 52: 89-102.
91. Ogutu, JO, Piepho, H-P, Dublin, HT, Bhola, N and Reid, RS. 2011a. Dynamics of births and recruitment in Mara-Serengeti ungulates in relation to climatic and land use changes. Population Ecology, 53: 195-213.
92. Onyeanusi, AE. 1988. Large herbivore grass offtake in Masai Mara National Reserve: implication for the Serengeti-Mara migrants. Journal of Arid Environments, 16: 203-209.
93. Ostrovski, S, Massalatchi, MS and Mamane, M. 2001. Evidence of a dramatic decline of the red-necked ostrich Struthio camelus camelus in the Aïr and Ténéré national nature reserve, Niger. Oryx, 35: 349-352.
94. Ottichilo, WK, de Leeuw, J and Prins, HHT. 2001. Population trends of resident wildebeest [Connochaetes taurinus hecki (Neumann)] and factors influencing them in the Maasai Mara ecosystem, Kenya. Biological Conservation, 97: 271-282.
95. Ottichilo, WK, de Leeuw, J, Skidmore, AK, Prins, HHT and Said, MY. 2000. Population trends of large non-migratory wild herbivores and livestock in the Maasai Mara ecosystem, Kenya, between 1977 and 1997. African Journal of Ecology, 38: 202-216.
96. Owen-Smith, N, Mason, DR and Ogutu, JO. 2005. Comparative changes in adult vs. juvenile survival affecting population trends of African ungulates. Journal of Animal Ecology, 74: 762-773.
97. Owen-Smith, N and Mills, MGL. 2006. Manifold interactive influences on the population dynamics of a multispecies ungulate assemblage. Ecological Monographs, 76: 73-92.
98. Parmesan, C and Yohe, G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421: 37-42.
99. Piepho, H-P and Ogutu, JO. 2007. Simple state-space models in a mixed model framework. American Statistician, 61: 224-232.
100. Polis, GA, Hurd, SD, Jackson, CT and Piñero, FS. 1997. El Niño effects on the dynamics and control of an island ecosystem in the Gulf of California. Ecology, 78: 1884-1897.
101. Prins, HHT. 1988. Plant phenology patterns in Lake Manyara National Park, Tanzania. Journal of Biogeography, 15: 465-480.
102. Prins, HHT and Beekman, JH. 1989. A balanced diet as a goal for grazing: the food of the Manyara buffalo. African Journal of Ecology, 27: 241-259.
103. Purvis M. 2012. Wildlife harassment taints Maasai Mara National Reserve. Available at: http://makenasafaritales.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Maasai-Mara.pdf [accessed 1 June 2012].
104. Root, TL, Price, JT, Kimberly, RH, Hall, R, Schneider, SH, Rosenz-sweig, C and Pounds, JA. 2003. Fingerprint of global warming on animals and plants. Nature, 421: 57-60.
105. Roots, C. 2006. Flightless birds, Santa Barbara: Greenwood Press.
106. Roques, KG, O'Connor, TG and Watkinson, AR. 2001. Dynamics of shrub encroachment in an African savanna: relative influences of fire, herbivory, rainfall and density dependence. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38: 268-280.
107. Rosensweig, C, Karoly, D, Vicarelli, M, Neofotis, P, Wu, Q, Casassa, G, Menzel, A, Root, TL, Estrella, NSeguin, B. 2008. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature, 453: 353-357.
108. Rowell, DP, Folland, CK, Makell, K, Owen, JA and Ward, MN. 1992. Modelling the influence of global surface temperatures on the variability and predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters, 19: 905-908.
109. Runyoro, VA, Hofer, H, Chausi, EB and Moehlman, P. 1995. "Long-term trends in the herbivore populations of the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania". In Serengeti II: dynamics, management and conservation of an ecosystem, Edited by: Sinclair, ARE and Arcese, P. 146-168. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
110. Ruppert, D, Wand, MP and Carroll, RJ. 2003. Semiparametric regression, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
111. Ruppert, D, Wand, MP and Carroll, RJ. 2009. Semiparametric regression during 2003-2007. Electronic Journal of Statistics, 3: 1193-1256.
112. Saba, ARK. 1979. "Predator prey interactions: a case study in the Masai-Mara Game Reserves, Kenya". In Wildlife management in savanna woodlands, Edited by: Ajayi, SS and Halstead, LB. 41-49. London: Taylor and Francis.
113. Saji, NH, Goswan, BN, Vinayachandran, PN and Yamagata, T. 1999. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401: 360-363.
114. Sales, J. 2009. Current conservation status of ratites. Journal of Threatened Taxa, 1: 9-16.
115. SAS Institute. 2010. SAS System for Windows version 9.2.3. Cary: SAS Institute, Inc.
116. Sauer, EGF. 1972. Aberrant sexual behaviour in the South African ostrich. Auk, 89: 717-737.
117. Sauer, EGF and Sauer, EM. 1966. The behaviour and ecology of the South African ostrich. Living Bird, 5: 45-75.
118. Scheel, D and Packer, C. 1995. "Variation in predation by lions: tracking a moveable feast". In Serengeti II: dynamics, management and conservation of an ecosystem, Edited by: Sinclair, ARE and Arcese, P. 299-314. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
119. Scheffer, M, Carpenter, S, Foley, JA, Folke, C and Walker, B. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413: 591-596.
120. Schmidt-Nielsen, K, Lasiewski, RC, Bretz, WL, Kanwisher, J and Cohn, JE. 1969. Temperature regulation and respiration in the ostrich. Condor, 71: 341-352.
121. Scholes, RJ and Archer, SR. 1997. Tree-grass interactions in savannas. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 28: 517-544.
122. Sebei, SK, Bergaoui, R, Hamouda, MB and Cooper, RG. 2009. Wild ostrich (Struthio camelus australis) reproduction in Orbata, a nature reserve in Tunisia. Tropical Animal Health and Production, 41: 1427-1438.
123. Semazzi, FHM, Burns, B, Lin, NH and Schemm, JK. 1996. A GCM study of the teleconnections between the continental climate of Africa and the global sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, 9: 2480-2497.
124. Serneels, S and Lambin, EF. 2001. Impact of land use changes on the wildebeest migration in the northern part of the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem. Journal of Biogeography, 28: 391-407.
125. Serneels, S, Said, MY and Lambin, EF. 2001. Land cover changes around a major east African wildlife reserve: the Mara ecosystem (Kenya). International Journal of Remote Sensing, 22: 3397-3420.
126. Shabbar, A and Bonsal, B. 2003. An assessment of changes in winter cold and warm spells over Canada. Natural Hazards, 29: 173-188.
127. Sillett, TS, Holmes, RT and Sherry, TW. 2000. Impacts of global climate cycle on population dynamics of a migratory songbird. Science, 288: 2040-2042.
128. Sinclair, ARE. 1975. The resource limitation of trophic levels in tropical grassland ecosystems. Journal of Animal Ecology, 44: 497-521.
129. Sinclair, ARE, Mduma, SAR and Arcese, P. 2000. What determines phenology and synchrony of ungulate breeding in Serengeti?. Ecology, 81: 2100-2111.
130. Skadhauge, E and Dawson, A. 1999. "Physiology". In The ostrich: biology, production and health, Edited by: Deeming, DC. 51-81. Wallingford: CAB International.
131. Söderström, B and Reid, RS. 2010. Abandoned pastoral settlements provide concentrations of resources for savanna birds. Acta Oecologica, 36: 184-190.
132. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds). 2007. Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
133. Stainforth, DA, Aina, T, Christensen, C, Collins, M, Faull, N, Frame, DJ, Kettleborough, JA, Knight, S, Martin, AMurphy, JM. 2005. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433: 403-406.
134. Stelfox, JG, Peden, DG, Epp, H, Hudson, RJ, Mbugua, SW and Agatsiva, JL. 1986. Herbivore dynamics in southern Narok, Kenya. Journal of Wildlife Management, 50: 339-347.
135. Thiollay, JM. 2006. Severe decline of birds in the northern Sahel of West Africa: a long-term assessment. Bird Conservation International, 16: 1-13.
136. Thirgood, S, Mosser, A, Tham, S, Hopcraft, G, Mwangomo, E, Mlengeya, T, Kilewo, M, Fryxell, J, Sinclair, ARE and Borner, M. 2004. Can parks protect migratory ungulates? The case of the Serengeti wildebeest. Animal Conservation, 7: 113-120.
137. Thomas, CD, Cameron, A, Green, RE, Bakkenes, M, Beaumont, LJ, Collingham, YC, Erasmus, BFN, de Siqueira, MF, Grainger, AHannah, L. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427: 145-148.
138. Thomson, AM, Brown, RA, Rosenberg, NJ, Izaurralde, RC, Legler, DM and Srinivasan, R. 2003. Simulated impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States water resources. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 39: 137-148.
139. Trenberth, KE and Hoar, TJ. 1997. El Niño and climate change: longest on record. Geophysical Research Letters, 24: 3057-3060.
140. Tyson, PD, Dyer, TG and Mametse, MN. 1975. Secular changes in South African rainfall: 1880-1972. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 101: 817-833.
141. Ullrey, DE and Allen, ME. 1996. Nutrition and feeding of ostriches. Animal Feed Science Technology, 59: 27-36.
142. van Hooft, P, Greyling, BJ, Prins, HHT, Getz, WM, Jolles, AE and Bastos, ADS. 2007. Selection at the Y chromosome of the African buffalo driven by rainfall. PloS One, 10: 1-5.
143. Verlinden, A and Masogo, R. 1997. Satellite remote sensing of habitat suitability for ungulates and ostrich in the Kalahari of Botswana. Journal of Arid Environments, 35: 563-574.
144. Visser, ME. 2008. Keeping up with a warming world, assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, 275: 649-6659.
145. Walther, GR, Post, E, Convey, P, Menzel, A, Parmesan, C, Beebee, TJC, Fromentin, JM, Hoegh-Guldeberg, O and Bailein, F. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416: 389-395.
146. Western, D, Groom, R and Worden, J. 2009. The impact of subdivision and sedentarization of pastoral lands on wildlife in an African savanna ecosystem. Biological Conservation, 142: 2538-2546.
147. Williams, JB, Siegfried, WR, Milton, SJ, Adams, NJ, Dean, WRJ, du Plessis, MA and Jackson, S. 1993. Field metabolism, water requirements and foraging behaviour of wild ostriches in the Namib. Ecology, 74: 390-404.
148. Williams AP, Funk C. 2011. A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y.
149. Winkler, DW, Dunn, PO and McCulloch, CE. 2002. Predicting the effects of climate change on avian life-histories. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 99: 13595-13599.
150. Wittemyer, G, Elsen, P, Bean, WT, Burton, ACO and Brashares, JS. 2008. Accelerated human population growth at protected area edges. Science, 321: 123-126.
151. Wolfinger, R and O'Connell, M. 1993. Generalized linear mixed models: a pseudo-likelihood approach. Journal of Statistical Computing and Simulation, 4: 233-243.
152. Wuethrich, B. 2000. How climate change alters rhythms of the wild. Science, 287: 793-795.