Limitations of seasonal predictability for summer climate over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 21, 2012, Pages 7574-7589

  Kosaka, Yu ^a   Chowdary, J S ^b   Xie, Shang Ping ^a   Min, Young Mi ^c   Lee, June Yi ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^b INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY   (India)

^c APEC Climate Center   (South Korea)

Author keywords

Asia; ENSO; Interannual variability; Seasonal forecasting; Summer warm season; Teleconnections

Indexed keywords

ASIA; ENSO; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SUMMER/WARM SEASON; TELECONNECTIONS;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; FORECASTING; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; ROADS AND STREETS; SEA LEVEL;

SILK;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; HINDCASTING; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER; TELECONNECTION;

FAR EAST; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTHWEST);

NIA;

EID: 84870032190     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00009.1     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Alexander, M. A., N.-C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2004: Broadening the atmospheric bridge paradigm: ENSO teleconnections to the tropical West Pacific-Indian Oceans over the seasonal cycle and to the North Pacific in summer. Earth's Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr., Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union, 85-103.
2. Chowdary, J. S., S.-P. Xie, J.-Y. Lee, Y. Kosaka, and B. Wang, 2010: Predictability of summer northwest Pacific climate in 11 coupled model hindcasts: Local and remote forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D22121, doi:10.1029/2010JD014595.
3. Ding, Q., and B. Wang, 2005: Circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere summer. J. Climate, 18, 3483-3505.
4. Ding, Q., and B. Wang, J. M. Wallace, and G. Branstator, 2011: Tropical-extratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: Observed interannual variability. J. Climate, 24, 1878-1896.
5. Dole, R., and et al., 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582.
6. Du, Y., S.-P. Xie, G. Huang, and K. Hu, 2009: Role of air-sea interaction in the long persistence of El Nin~ o-induced north Indian Ocean warming. J. Climate, 22, 2023-2038.
7. Enomoto, T., 2004: Interannual variability of the Bonin high associated with the propagation of Rossby waves along the Asian jet. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1019-1034.
8. Enomoto, T, B. J. Hoskins, and Y. Matsuda, 2003: The formation mechanism of the Bonin high in August. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 157-178.
9. Grumm, R. H., 2011: The central European and Russian heat event of July-August 2010. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 1285-1296.
10. Hirota, N., and M. Takahashi, 2012: A tripolar pattern as an internal mode of the East Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1416-y, in press.
11. Hong, C.-C., H.-H. Hsu, N.-H. Lin, and H. Chiu, 2011: Roles of European blocking and tropical-extratropical interaction in the 2010 Pakistan flooding. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L13806,doi:10.1029/2011GL047583.
12. Hoskins, B. J., 1980: Representation of the earth topography using spherical harmonics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 111-115.
13. Houze, R. A., K. L. Rasmussen, S. Medina, S. R. Brodzik, and U. Romatschke, 2011: Anomalous atmospheric events leading to the summer 2010 floods in Pakistan. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 291-298.
14. Hsu, H.-H., and S.-M. Lin, 2007: Asymmetry of the tripole rainfall pattern during the East Asian summer. J. Climate, 20, 4443-4458.
15. Huang, B., and J. L. Kinter III, 2002: Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3199,doi:10.1029/2001JC001278.
16. Huang, G., Y. Liu, and R. H. Huang, 2011: The interannual variability of summer rainfall in the arid and semiarid regions of northern China and its association with the northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 257-268.
17. Kang, I.-S., and J. Shukla, 2006: Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Springer Praxis, 585-612.
18. Kawatani, Y., and M. Takahashi, 2003: Simulation of the Baiu front in a high resolution AGCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81, 113-126.
19. Klein, S. A., B. J. Soden, and N.-C. Lau, 1999: Remote sea surface temperature variations during ENSO: Evidence for a tropical atmospheric bridge. J. Climate, 12, 917-932.
20. Kosaka, Y., and H. Nakamura, 2006: Structure and dynamics of the summertime Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. Quart.J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2009-2030.
21. Kosaka, Y., and H. Nakamura, 2010: Mechanisms of meridional teleconnection observed between a summer monsoon systemand a subtropical anticyclone. Part I: The Pacific-Japan pattern. J. Climate, 23,5085-5108.
22. Kosaka, Y., H. Nakamura, M. Watanabe, and M. Kimoto, 2009: Analysis on the dynamics of a wave-like teleconnection pattern along the summertime Asian jet based on a reanalysis dataset and climate model simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 561-580.
23. Kosaka, Y., S.-P. Xie, and H. Nakamura, 2011: Dynamics of interannual variability in summer precipitation over East Asia. J. Climate,24, 5435-5453.
24. Kug, J.-S., I.-S. Kang, and D.-H. Choi, 2008: Seasonal climate predictability with tier-one and tier-two prediction system. Climate Dyn., 31, 403-416.
25. Lau, N.-C., and M. J. Nath, 2003: Atmosphere-ocean variations in the Indo-Pacific sector during ENSO episodes. J. Climate, 16,3-20.
26. Lau, N.-C., and J. J. Ploshay, 2009: Simulation of synoptic- and subsynopticscale phenomena associated with the East Asian summer monsoon using a high-resolutionGCM.Mon.Wea. Rev., 137, 137-160.
27. Lee, J.-Y., and B. Wang, 2012: Seasonal climate prediction and predictability of atmospheric circulation. Climate Models, L. M. Druyan, Ed., InTech, 19-42.
28. Lee, J.-Y., and et al., 2010: How are seasonal prediction skills related to models' performance on mean state and annual cycle? Climate Dyn., 35, 267-283.
29. Lee, J.-Y., B. Wang, Q. Ding, K.-J. Ha, J.-B. Ahn, A. Kumar, B. Stern, and O. Alves, 2011: How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation? Climate Dyn., 37, 1189-1203.
30. Li, T., and B. Wang, 2005: A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: Synoptic-to-interannual variabilities. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 16, 285-314.
31. Livezey, R. E., 1995: Field intercomparison. An Analysis of Climate Variability Applications of Statistical Techniques, H. von Storch and A. Navara, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 159-175.
32. Lu, R., and Z. Lin, 2009: Role of subtropical precipitation anomalies in maintaining the summertime meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific and East Asia. J. Climate, 22, 2058-2072.
33. Luo, J.-J., S. Masson, S. Behera, S. Shingu, and T. Yamagata, 2005: Seasonal climate predictability in a coupled OAGCM using a different approach for ensemble forecasts. J. Climate, 18,4474-4497.
34. Matsueda, M., 2011: Predictability of Euro-Russian blocking in summer of 2010. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06801, doi:10.1029/2010GL046557.
35. Metz, W., 1991: Optimal relationship of large-scale flow patterns and the barotropic feedback due to high-frequency eddies.J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1141-1159.
36. Nakamura, H., and T. Fukamachi, 2004: Evolution and dynamics of summertime blocking over the Far East and the associated surface Okhotsk high. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 1213-1233.
37. Ninomiya, K., 2009: Characteristics of precipitation in the Meiyu-Baiu season in the CMIP3 20th century climate simulations.J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 829-843.
38. Ninomiya, K., T. Nishimura, W.Ohfuchi, T. Suzuki, and S.Matsumura, 2002: Features of the Baiu front simulated in an AGCM (T42L52). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 697-716.
39. Nitta, T., 1987: Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 65, 373-390.
40. North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982:Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699-706.
41. Onogi, K., and et al., 2007: The JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369-432.
42. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
43. Saha, S., and et al., 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
44. Sampe, T., and S.-P. Xie, 2010: Large-scale dynamics of the meiyu-baiu rainband: Environmental forcing by the westerly jet.J. Climate, 23, 113-134.
45. Sato, N., and M. Takahashi, 2006: Dynamical processes related to the appearance of quasi-stationary waves on the subtropical jet in the midsummer Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 19,1531-1544.
46. Sohn, S.-J., Y.-M. Min, J.-Y. Lee, C.-Y. Tam, I.-S. Kang, B. Wang, J.-B. Ahn, and T. Yamagata, 2012: Assessment of the longlead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983-2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical model. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D04102,doi:10.1029/2011JD016308.
47. Sui, C.-H., P.-H. Chung, and T. Li, 2007: Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L11701, doi:10.1029/2006GL029204.
48. Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 2001: A formulation of a phaseindependent wave activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 608-627.
49. Takaya, Y., T. Yasuda, T. Ose, and T. Nakaegawa, 2010: Predictability of themean location of typhoon formation in a seasonal prediction experiment with a coupled general circulation model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 88, 799-812.
50. Tokinaga, H., and Y. Tanimoto, 2004: Seasonal transition of SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean during El Nin~o and Indian Ocean dipole years. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1007-1018.
51. Wakabayashi, S., and R. Kawamura, 2004: Extraction of major teleconnection patterns possibly associated with the anomalous summer climate in Japan. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1577-1588.
52. Wang, B., I.-S. Kang, and J.-Y. Lee, 2004: Ensemble simulations of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs.J. Climate, 17, 803-818.
53. Wang, B., Q. Ding, X. Fu, I.-S. Kang, K. Jin, J. Shukla, and F. Doblas-Reyes, 2005: Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L15711, doi:10.1029/2005GL022734.
54. Wang, B., and et al., 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dyn., 33, 93-117.
55. Watanabe, M., 2009: Self-limiting feedback between baroclinic waves and a NAO-like sheared zonal flow. Geophys. Res.Lett., 36, L08803, doi:10.1029/2009GL037176.
56. Watanabe, M., and M. Kimoto, 2000: Atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: A positive feedback. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 3343-3369; Corrigendum, 127, 733-734.
57. Wu, B., T. Zhou, and T. Li, 2009: Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of EastAsian climate. J. Climate,22, 2992-3005.
58. Wu, B., T. Li, and T. Zhou, 2010: Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Nin~o decaying summer. J. Climate, 23, 2974-2986.
59. Wu, R., and B. Kirtman, 2007: Regimes of seasonal air-sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations. Climate Dyn., 29, 393-410.
60. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,78, 2539-2558.
61. Xie, S.-P., H. Annamalai, F. A. Schott, and J. P. McCreary, 2002: Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. J. Climate, 15, 864-878.
62. Xie, S.-P., K. Hu, J. Hafner, H. Tokinaga, Y. Du, G. Huang, and T. Sampe, 2009: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niñ o.J. Climate, 22, 730-747.
63. Yang, J., Q. Liu, S.-P. Xie, Z. Liu, and L. Wu, 2007: Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L02708, doi:10.1029/2006GL028571.
64. Yasui, S., and M. Watanabe, 2010: Forcing processes of the summertime circumglobal teleconnection pattern in a dry AGCM.J. Climate, 23, 2093-2114.
65. Zhong, A., H. H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2005: Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model. J. Climate, 18, 3634-3649.
66. Zhou, T., B. Wu, and B. Wang, 2009: How well do atmospheric general circulation models capture the leading modes of the interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon? J. Climate, 22, 1159-1173.