Predictability of the mean location of typhoon formation in a seasonal prediction experiment with a coupled general circulation model

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

Volumn 88, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 799-812

  Takaya, Yuhei ^a   Yasuda, Tamaki ^b   Ose, Tomoaki ^b   Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki ^b  

^a JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY   (Japan)

^b METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CYCLOGENESIS; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXPERIMENTAL STUDY; OCEANIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; SEASONAL VARIATION; SEASONALITY; TYPHOON; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 78649425354     PISSN: 00261165     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2010-502     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Atkinson, G. D., 1977: Forecasters guide to tropical meteorology. U.S. Air Force Tech. Rep., 240, Air Weather Service [Military Airlift Command (MAC)], 360 pp.
2. Camargo, S. J., and A. G. Barnston, 2009: Experimental seasonal dynamical forecasts of tropical cyclone activity at IRI. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 472-491, doi: 10.1175/2008WAF2007099.1.
3. Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, and S. E. Zebiak, 2005: A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models, Tellus, 57A, 589-604.
4. Camargo, S. J., A. G. Barnston, P. J. Klotzbach, and C. W. Landsea, 2007: Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts. World Meteorological Organization Bulletin, 56, 297-309.
5. Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2927.
6. Chan, J. C. L., 2006: Comment on ''Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment''. Science, 311, 1713.
7. Chan, J. C. L., 2007: Interannual variations of intense typhoon activity. Tellus, 59A, 455-460.
8. Chan, J. C. L., J. E. Shi, and C. M. Lam, 1998: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 997-1004.
9. Chen, T.-C., S.-P. Weng, N. Yamazaki, and S. Kiehne, 1998: Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 1080-1090.
10. Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The inter-annual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934-2994.
11. Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani, 1993: An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman & Hall, 436 pp.
12. Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
13. Fan, K., 2007: North Pacific sea ice cover, a predictor for the western North Pacific typhoon frequency?. Sci. China Ser. D-Earth Sci., 50, 1251-1257.
14. Graham, N. E., and T. P. Barnett, 1987: Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans. Science, 238, 657-659.
15. Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
16. Guo, Q. Y., 1983: The summer monsoon intensity index in East Asia and its variation. Acta. Geogr. Sin., 38, 207-217, in Chinese.
17. Hatsushika, H., J. Tsutsui, M. Fiorino, and K. Onogi, 2006: Impact of wind profile retrievals on the analysis of tropical cyclones in the JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 891-905.
18. Hoffman, R. N., and E. Kalnay, 1983: Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte-Carlo forecasting. Tellus, 35A, 100-118.
19. Ishikawa, I., H. Tsujino, M. Hirabara, H. Nakano, T. Yasuda, and H. Ishizaki, 2005: Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model (MRI.COM) manual, Technical Reports of the Meteorological Research Institute, Meteorological Research Institute, 190 pp.
20. Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto, and T. Matsumoto, 2005: Objective analyses of SST and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using ICOADS and the Kobe collection. Intl. J. Clima-tol., 25, 865-879.
21. Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter III, B. Wang, C.-K. Park, I.-S. Kang, B. Kirtman, J.-S. Kug, A. Kumar, J.-J. Luo, J. Schemm, J. Shukla, and T. Yamagata, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.
22. JMA, 2007: Outline of the operational numerical weather prediction at the Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan, Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency, Appendix to progress report on numerical weather prediction. 194 pp.
23. Goddard, L., A. G. Barnston, and S. J. Mason, 2003: Evaluation of the IRI's ''Net Assessment'' seasonal climate forecasts: 1997-2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1761-1781.
24. Kirtman, B., and A. Pirani, 2009: The state of the art of seasonal prediction: Outcomes and recommendations from the first World Climate Research Program workshop on Seasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 455-458.
25. Landsea, C. W., 2000: El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones. El Niño: Impacts of multiscale variability on natural ecosystems and society, H. F. Diaz and V. Mark-graf, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 149-181.
26. Murakami, H., and M. Sugi, 2010: Effect of model resolution on tropical cyclone climate projections. SOLA, 6, 73-76.
27. Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. A. Liniger, 2005: A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes. J. Climate, 18, 1513-1523.
28. Nakaegawa, T., M. Kanamitsu, and T. M. Smith, 2004: Interdecadal trend of prediction skill in an ensemble AMIP-Type experiment, J. Climate, 17, 2881-2889.
29. Nakaegawa, T., T. Tokuhiro, A. Itoh, and M. Hosaka, 2007: Evaluation of seasonal cycles of hydrological processes in JMA land data analysis, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 58, 73-83.
30. Onogi, K., J. Tsutsui, H. Koide, M. Sakamoto, S. Ko-bayashi, H. Hatsushika, T. Matsumoto, N. Yamazaki, H. Kamahori, K. Takahashi, S. Kadokura, K. Wada, K. Kato, R. Oyama, T. Ose, N. Man-noji, and R. Taira, 2007: The JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369-432.
31. Schubert, S. D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, M. A. Kistler, and A. Kumar, 2002: Predictability of zonal means during boreal summer. J. Climate, 15, 420-434.
32. Sugi, M., 2002: Usage of probabilistic forecast, in Climate variability and seasonal forecast, Training text for seasonal forecast, 2002 (in Japanese). JMA, 76-80.
33. Stowasser, M., Y. Wang, and K. P. Hamilton, 2007: Tropical cyclone changes in the western North Pacific in a global warming scenario. J. Climate, 20, 2378-2396.
34. Swets, J. A., 1986: Form of empirical ROCs in discrimination and diagnostic tasks: Implications for theory and measurement of performance. Psychol. Bull., 99, 181-198.
35. Trenberth, K. E., 1984: Signal versus noise in the southern oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 326-332.
36. Usui, N., S. Ishizaki, Y. Fujii, H. Tsujino, T. Yasuda, and M. Kamachi, 2006: Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) system. Advances in Space Research, 37, 806-822.
37. Vitart, F., 2006: Seasonal forecasting of tropical storm frequency using a multi-model ensemble. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 647-666.
38. Vitart, F., D. Anderson, and T. Stockdale, 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. J. Climate, 2003, 3932-3945.
39. Vitart, F. D., and Stockdale, T. N., 2001: Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2521-2537.
40. Walsh, K., M. Fiorino, C. Landsea, and K. McInnes, 2007: Objectively-determined resolution-dependent threshold criteria for detection of tropical cyclones in climate models and reanalyses, J. Climate, 20, 2307-2314.
41. Wang, H., 2001: The weakening of Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970s. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 376-386, doi: 10.1007/BF02919316.
42. Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events a{currency sign}ect tropical storm activity over the Western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 1643-1658.
43. Wang, B., and Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of South Asian summer monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629-638.
44. Wang, B., W. Renguang, and K.-M. Lau, 2001: Inter-annual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the Western North Pacific-East Asian Monsoons. J. Climate, 14, 4073-4090.
45. Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger, and C. Appenzeller, 2007: The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 118-124.
46. Xie, L., T. Yan, L. J. Pietrafesa, T. Karl, and X. Xu, 2005: Relationship between western North Pacific typhoon activity and Tibetan Plateau winter and spring snow cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16703, doi:10.1029/2005GL023237.
47. Zhou, T., B. Wu, A. A. Scaife, S. Bronnimann, A. Cher-chi, D. Fereday, A. M. Fischer, C. K. Folland, K. E. Jin, J. Kinter, J. R. Knight, F. Kucharski, S. Kusunoki, N.-C. Lau, Lijuan Li, M. J. Nath, T. Nakaegawa, A. Navarra, P. Pegion, E. Rozanov, S. Schubert, P. Sporyshev, A. Voldoire, X. Wen, J. H. Yoon, and N. Zeng, 2008: The CLIVAR C20C project: which components of the Asian-Australian monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible?, Climate Dyn., 33, 1051-1068, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0501-8.