Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Volumn 26, Issue 4, 2012, Pages

  Daniau, A L ^a   Bartlein, P J ^b   Harrison, S P ^a,c   Prentice, I C ^a,c,d   Brewer, S ^e   Friedlingstein, P ^f,g   Harrison Prentice, T I ^h   Inoue, J ⁱ   Izumi, K ^b   Marlon, J R ^j   Mooney, S ^k   Power, M J ^l   Stevenson, J ^m   Tinner, W ⁿ   Andric M ^o   Atanassova, J ^p   Behling, H ^q   Black, M ^k   Blarquez, O ^r   Brown, K J ^s,t   Carcaillet, C ^r   Colhoun, E A ^u   Colombaroli, D ⁿ   Davis, B A S ^v   D'Costa, D ^w   Dodson, J ^x   Dupont, L ^y   Eshetu, Z ^z   Gavin, D G ^b   Genries, A ^r   Haberle, S ^m   Hallett, D J ^aa   Hope, G ^m   Horn, S P ^ab   Kassa, T G ^ac   Katamura, F ^ad   Kennedy, L M ^ae   Kershaw, P ^w   Krivonogov, S ^af   Long, C ^ag   Magri, D ^ah   Marinova, E ^p,ai   McKenzie, G M ^w   Moreno, P I ^aj   Moss, P ^ak   Neumann, F H ^al,am   Norstrm, E ^an   Paitre, C ^ao   Rius, D ^ap,aq   Roberts, N ^ar   Robinson, G S ^as   Sasaki, N ^at   Scott, L ^au   Takahara, H ^av   Terwilliger, V ^aw,ax,ay   Thevenon, F ^az   Turner, R ^ar   Valsecchi, V G ^n,r   Vanniere B ^ap   Walsh, M ^b,ba   Williams, N ^bb   Zhang, Y ^bc   more..

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OREGON   (United States)

^c MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^d IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING   (United States)

^f LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^g UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^h Newton St Cyres   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ Osaka Prefecture University   (Japan)

^j UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^k UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^l UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

^m AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

ⁿ UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^o ANTON MELIK GEOGRAPHICAL INSTITUTE   (Slovenia)

^p UNIVERSITY OF SOFIA   (Bulgaria)

^q UNIVERSITY OF GÖTTINGEN   (Germany)

^r INSTITUT DES SCIENCES DE L EVOLUTION   (France)

^s LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^t GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF DENMARK AND GREENLAND   (Denmark)

^u UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE   (Australia)

^v EPFL   (Switzerland)

^w MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^x AUSTRALIAN NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ORGANISATION   (Australia)

^y UNIVERSITY OF BREMEN   (Germany)

^z ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY   (Ethiopia)

^aa UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY   (Canada)

^ab UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE   (United States)

^ac UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE   (Germany)

^ad Tokushu Kosho Gijutsu Inc   (Japan)

^ae VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^af SOBOLEV INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND MINERALOGY   (Russian Federation)

^ag UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OSHKOSH   (United States)

^ah SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

^ai UNIVERSITY OF LEUVEN   (Belgium)

^aj UNIVERSITY OF CHILE   (Chile)

^ak UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^al UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^am UNIVERSITY OF MÜNSTER   (Germany)

^an STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^ao CENTRE D ÉTUDES NORDIQUES   (Canada)

^ap UNIVERSITÉ DE FRANCHE COMTÉ   (France)

^aq Laboratoire Geode   (France)

^ar UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

^as FORDHAM UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^at RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR HUMANITY AND NATURE   (Japan)

^au UNIVERSITY OF THE FREE STATE   (South Africa)

^av KYOTO PREFECTURAL UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^aw UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

^ax STATION DE RADIOASTRONOMIE DE NANÇAY   (France)

^ay Le Studium   (France)

^az UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA   (Switzerland)

^ba CENTRAL WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^bb Natural Resources Policy Section   (Australia)

^bc INSTITUTE OF BOTANY   (China)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOMASS-BURNING; BURNT AREAS; FIRE REGIMES; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; MOISTURE BALANCE; MOISTURE LEVEL; REGIONAL CLIMATE;

CHARCOAL; FIRES; GLOBAL WARMING; REMOTE SENSING;

BIOMASS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; BIOMASS BURNING; CHARCOAL; GLOBAL WARMING; PHYSIOLOGICAL RESPONSE; PREDICTION; REMOTE SENSING; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

EID: 84868018440     PISSN: 08866236     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2011GB004249     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Adams, H. D., et al. (2009), Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 106, 7063-7066, doi:10.1073/pnas. 0901438106.
2. Archibald, S., et al. (2009), What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in southern Africa, Global Change Biol., 15, 613-630, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01754.x.
3. Arneth, A., et al. (2010), Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system, Nat. Geosci., 3, 525-532, doi:10.1038/ngeo905.
4. Barlow, J., and C. A. Peres (2004), Ecological responses to El Niño-induced surface fires inflammable tropical forests central Brazilian Amazonia: Management implications for flammable tropical forests, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. B, 359, 367-380, doi:10.1098/rstb.2003.1423. (Pubitemid 38370774)
5. Bond, G., et al. (1993), Correlations between climate records from North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice, Nature, 365, 143-147, doi:10.1038/ 365143a0. (Pubitemid 24394502)
6. Bowman, D. M. J. S., et al. (2009), Fire in the Earth system, Science, 324, 481-484, doi:10.1126/science.1163886.
7. Cary, G. (2002), Importance of a changing climate for fire regimes in Australia, in Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of a Continent, edited by R. Bradstock, J. Williams, and A. M. Gill, pp. 26-46, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge.
8. Chuvieco, E., et al. (2008), Global characterization of fire activity: Toward defining fire regimes from Earth observation data, Global Change Biol., 14, 1488-1502, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01585.x. (Pubitemid 351796634)
9. Cleveland, W. S., and S. J. Devlin (1988), Locally weighted regression: An approach to regression analysis by local fitting, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 596-610, doi:10.1080/01621459.1988.10478639.
10. Cramer, W., and I. C. Prentice (1988), Simulation of regional soil moisture deficits on a European scale, Nor. Geogr. Tidsskr., 42, 149-151, doi:10.1080/00291958808552193.
11. Daniau, A.-L., et al. (2007), Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic variability revealed by fire emissions in southwestern Iberia, Quat. Sci. Rev., 26, 1369-1383, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.02.005. (Pubitemid 46894710)
12. Daniau, A.-L., et al. (2010a), Testing the hypothesis of fire use for ecosystem management by Neanderthal and Upper Palaeolithic Modern Human populations, PLoS ONE, 5, e9157, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0009157.
13. Daniau, A.-L., et al. (2010b), Fire regimes during the last glacial, Quat. Sci. Rev., 29, 2918-2930, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.008.
14. Defries, R., et al. (2000), A new global 1-km dataset of percentage tree cover derived from remote sensing, Global Change Biol., 6, 247-254, doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00296.x. (Pubitemid 30160164)
15. deMenocal, P., et al. (2000), Coherent high-and low-latitude climate variability during the Holocene warm period, Science, 288, 2198-2202, doi:10.1126/science.288.5474.2198. (Pubitemid 30429602)
16. Dwyer, E., et al. (2000), Global spatial and temporal distribution of vegetation fire as determined from satellite observations, Int. J. Remote Sens., 21, 1289-1302, doi:10.1080/014311600210182. (Pubitemid 30242136)
17. Dykoski, C. A., et al. (2005), A high-resolution, absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave, China, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 233, 71-86, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.01.036.
18. Ellis, E. C., and N. Ramankutty (2008), Putting people in the map: Anthropogenic biomes of the world, Front. Ecol. Environ, 6, 439-447, doi:10.1890/070062.
19. Flannery, T. (1994), The Future Eaters: An Ecological History of the Australasian Lands and People, 423 pp., Reed Books, Port Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
20. Fowler, C., and E. Konopik (2007), The history of fire in the southern United States, Hum. Ecol. Rev., 14, 165-176. (Pubitemid 47185567)
21. Galanter, M., et al. (2000), Impacts of biomass burning on tropospheric CO, NO#inf#X#/inf#, and O#inf#3#/inf#, J. Geophys. Res., 105(D5), 6633-6653, doi:10.1029/1999JD901113.
22. Gentleman, R. C., et al. (2004), Bioconductor: Open software development for computational biology and bioinformatics, Genome Biol., 5(10), R80, doi:10.1186/gb-2004-5-10-r80.
23. Giglio, L., et al. (2010), Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products, Biogeosciences, 7, 1171-1186, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1171-2010.
24. Gillett, N. P., et al. (2004), Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18211, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL020876. (Pubitemid 39660794)
25. Groisman, P. Y., et al. (2007), Potential forest fire danger over northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century, Global Planet. Change, 56, 371-386, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.029. (Pubitemid 46590643)
26. Harrison, S. P. et al. (2010), Fire in the Earth system, in Changing Climates, Earth Systems and Society, edited by J. Dodson, pp. 21-48, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, doi:10.1007/978-90-481-8716-4-3.
27. Hastie, T., and R. Tibshirani (1990), Generalized Additive Models, Chapman and Hall, New York.
28. Johnsen, S. J., et al. (2001), Oxygen isotope and palaeotemperature records from six Greenland ice-core stations: Camp Century, Dye-3, GRIP, GISP2, Renland and North GRIP, J. Quaternary Sci., 16, 299-307, doi:10.1002/jqs.622. (Pubitemid 32494784)
29. Jouzel, J., et al. (2007), Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the past 800, 000 years, Science, 317, 793-796, doi:10.1126/science.1141038. (Pubitemid 47263433)
30. Kajii, Y., et al. (2002), Boreal forest fires in Siberia in 1998: Estimation of area burned and emissions of pollutants by advanced very high resolution radiometer satellite data, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D24), 4745, doi:10.1029/2001JD001078. (Pubitemid 44793959)
31. Kaufman, D. S., et al. (2009), Recent warming reverses long-term Arctic cooling, Science, 325, 1236-1239, doi:10.1126/science.1173983.
32. Kloster, S., et al. (2012), The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN, Biogeosciences, 9, 509-525, doi:10.5194/bg-9-509-2012.
33. Krawchuk, M. A., et al. (2009), Global pyrogeography: The current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS ONE, 4(4), e5102, doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0005102.
34. Lavorel, S., et al. (2007), Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans, climate, the atmosphere, and ecosystems, Mitig. Adapt. Strategies Glob. Change, 12, 33-53, doi:10.1007/s11027-006-9046-5.
35. Le Page, Y., et al. (2007), Global fire activity patterns (1996-2006) and climatic influence: An analysis using the World Fire Atlas, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 7, 17,299-17,338, doi:10.5194/acpd-7-17299-2007. (Pubitemid 350206017)
36. Lézine, A.-M., et al. (2007), Centennial-to millennial-scale variability of the Indian monsoon during the early Holocene from a sediment, pollen and isotope record from the desert of Yemen, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclima-tol. Palaeoecol., 243, 235-249, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.05.019. (Pubitemid 44963509)
37. Marlon, J. R., et al. (2008), Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 1, 697-702, doi:10.1038/ngeo313.
38. Marlon, J. R., et al. (2009), Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 106(8), 2519-2524, doi:10.1073/pnas.0808212106.
39. Marlon, J. R., et al. (2012), Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 109, E535-E543, doi:10.1073/pnas.1112839109.
40. Meehl, G. A., et al. (2007), Global climate projections, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 789-844, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
41. Meyn, A., et al. (2007), Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: The emerging conceptual model, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 31(3), 287-312, doi:10.1177/0309133307079365. (Pubitemid 47098979)
42. Mitchell, T. D., and P. D. Jones (2005), An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated highresolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693-712, doi:10.1002/joc.1181. (Pubitemid 40815726)
43. Mooney, S. D., et al. (2011), Late Quaternary fire regimes of Australasia, Quat. Sci. Rev., 30, 28-46, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.10.010.
44. New, M., D. Lister, M. Hulme, and I. Makin (2002), A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas, Clim. Res., 21, 1-25, doi:10.3354/cr021001. (Pubitemid 34838195)
45. Pausas, J. G., J. Llovet, A. Rodrigo, and R. Vallejo (2008), Are wildfires a disaster in the Mediterranean basin?-A review, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17, 713-723, doi:10.1071/WF07151.
46. Pechony, O., and D. T. Shindell (2010), Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 107(45), 19, 167-19, 170, doi:10.1073/pnas.1003669107.
47. Power, M. J., et al. (2008), Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: An assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data, Clim. Dyn., 30, 887-907, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0334-x.
48. Power, M. J., et al. (2010), Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: A new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration, Palaeogeogr. Palaeo-climatol. Palaeoecol., 291(1-2), 52-59, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2009.09.014.
49. Power, M. J., et al. (2012), Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after AD 1500, Holocene, doi:10.1177/0959683612450196, in press.
50. Prentice, I. C. (2010), The burning issue, Science, 330, 1636-1637, doi:10.1126/science.1199809.
51. Prentice, I. C., et al. (2011), Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 25, GB3005, doi:10.1029/2010GB003906.
52. Price, C. (2009), Will a drier climate result in more lightning?, Atmos. Res., 91, 479-484, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.05.016.
53. R Development Core Team (2010), R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
54. Randerson, J. T., G. R. van der Werf, L. Giglio, G. J. Collatz, and P. S. Kasibhatla (2007), Global Fire Emissions Database, Version 2 (GFEDv2.1), Oak Ridge Natl. Lab. Distrib. Active Arch. Cent, Oak Ridge, Tenn. [Available at http://daac.ornl.gov/.].
55. Renssen, H., et al. (2005), Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model, Clim. Dyn., 24, 23-43, doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0485-y. (Pubitemid 40289782)
56. Running, S. W. (2006), Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires?, Science, 313, 927-928, doi:10.1126/science.1130370. (Pubitemid 44267374)
57. Sánchez Goñi, M. F., et al. (2008), Contrasting impacts of Dansgaard-Oeschger events over a western European latitudinal transect modulated by orbital parameters, Quat. Sci. Rev., 27, 1136-1151, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev. 2008.03.003.
58. Scholze, M., et al. (2006a), A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 103(35), 13, 116-13, 120, doi:10.1073/pnas.0601816103. (Pubitemid 44338925)
59. Scholze, M., et al. (2006b), A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 103, 13,116-13,120, doi:10.1073/pnas.0601816103. (Pubitemid 44338925)
60. Soja, A. J., et al. (2007), Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations, Global Planet. Change, 56(3-4), 274-296, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028. (Pubitemid 46621098)
61. Stacklies, W., et al. (2007), pcaMethods-A bioconductor package providing PCA methods for incomplete data, Bioinformatics, 23, 1164-1167, doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btm069. (Pubitemid 47050571)
62. Stocks, B. J., et al. (2003), Large forest fires in Canada, 1959-1997, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D1), 8149, doi:10.1029/2001JD000484.
63. Timm, O., and A. Timmermann (2007), Simulation of the last 21, 000 years using accelerated transient boundary conditions, J. Clim., 20, 4377-4401, doi:10.1175/JCLI4237.1. (Pubitemid 47457036)
64. Turner, R., et al. (2008), Climatic pacing of Mediterranean fire histories from lake sedimentary microcharcoal, Global Planet. Change, 63, 317-324, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.07.002.
65. van der Werf, G. R., et al. (2004), Continental-scale partitioning of fire emissions during the 1997 to 2001 El Niño/La Niña period, Science, 303, 73-76, doi:10.1126/science.1090753. (Pubitemid 38055772)
66. van der Werf, G. R., et al. (2008), Climate controls on the variability of fires in the tropics and subtropics, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3028, doi:10.1029/2007GB003122.
67. Wang, Z., et al. (2010), Large variations in Southern Hemisphere biomass burning during the last 650 years, Science, 330, 1663-1666, doi:10.1126/science. 1197257.
68. Westerling, A. L., et al. (2006), Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wild-fire activity, Science, 313, 940-943, doi:10.1126/science.1128834. (Pubitemid 44274884)
69. Williams, A. P., et al. (2010), Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 107, 21,289-21,294, doi:10.1073/pnas.0914211107.
70. Wood, S. N. (2006), Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R, 391 pp., CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fla.