The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

Biogeosciences

Volumn 9, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 509-525

  Kloster, S ^a   Mahowald, N M ^b   Randerson, J T ^c   Lawrence, P J ^d  

^a MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^b Institute for the Study of the Continents   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; DEMOGRAPHY; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; FIRE MANAGEMENT; GLOBAL CHANGE; HARVESTING; LAND USE; LANDSCAPE; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION STRUCTURE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

SOUTH AMERICA;

EID: 84863677756     PISSN: 17264170     EISSN: 17264189     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/bg-9-509-2012     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Amiro, B., Cantin, A., Flannigan, M., and de Groot, W.: Future emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires, Can. J. Forest Res., 39, 383-395, doi:10.1139/X08-154, 2009.
2. Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, G02008, doi:10.1029/2005JG000042, 2005.
3. Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Kirk-lighter, D. W., and Melilli, J.: Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century, Global Change Biology, 15, 1491-1510, 2009.
4. Boden, T., Marland, G., and Andres, B.: Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2008, available at: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751 2008.ems (last access: July 2011), 2009.
5. Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Carlson, J. M., Cochrane, M. A., D'Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R., Doyle, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krwchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Marston, J. B., Mortiz, M. A., Prentice, I. C., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Swetnam, T. W., van der Werf, G. R., and Pyne, S. J.: Fire in the Earth System, Science, 324, 481, doi:10.1126/science.1163886, 2009.
6. CIESIN: Country-level Population and Downscaled Projections based on the A1 Scenario, 1990-2100, [digital version]., Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, available at: http://www.ciesin. columbia.edu/datasets/downscaled (last access: June 2011), 2002.
7. Euskirchen, E. S., McGuire, A. D., Rupp, T. S., Chapin, F. S., and Walsh, J. E.: Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003-2100, J. Geophys. Res., 114, 1-15, doi:10.1029/2009JG001095, 2009.
8. Flannigan, M., Stocks, B., and Wotton, B.: Climate change and forest fires, Sci. total Environ., 262, 221-9, 2000.
9. Flannigan, M. D., Krawchuk, M. A., de Groot, W. J., Wotton, B. M., and Gowman, L. M.: Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18, 483, doi:10.1071/WF08187, 2009.
10. Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Matthews, H. D., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K.-G., Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, a. J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.: Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison, J. Climate, 19, 3337-3353, doi:10.1175/JCLI3800.1, 2006. (Pubitemid 44177898)
11. Gillett, N. P., Weaver, A. J., Zwiers, F. W., and Flannigan, M. D.: Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18211, doi:10.1029/2004GL020876, 2004. (Pubitemid 39660794)
12. Houghton, R. A., Hobbie, J. E., Melillo, J. M., Morre, B., Peterson, B. J., Shaver, G. R., and Woodwell, G. M.: Changes in the carbon content of terrestial biota and soils between 1860 and 1980-A net release of CO2 to the atmosphere, Ecol. Monogr., 53, 235-262, 1983.
13. Hurtt, G.: Harmonisation of global land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5, IGBP iLEAPS Newsletter, 7, 6-8, 2009.
14. Hurtt, G. C., Frolking, S., Fearon, M. G., Moore, B., Shevli-akova, E., Malyshev, S., Pacala, S. W., and Houghton, R. A.: The underpinnings of land-use history: three centuries of global gridded land-use transitions, wood-harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands, Glob. Change Biol., 12, 1208-1229, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01150.x, 2006.
15. Kleinen, T., Brovkin, V., and Schuldt, R. J.: A dynamic model of wetland extent and peat accumulation: results for the Holocene, Biogeosciences, 9, 235-248, doi:10.5194/bg-9-235-2012, 2012.
16. Klein Goldewijk, K.: Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 417-433, 2001.
17. Kloster, S., Mahowald, N. M., Randerson, J. T., Thornton, P. E., Hoffman, F. M., Levis, S., Lawrence, P. J., Feddema, J. J., Ole-son, K. W., and Lawrence, D. M.: Fire dynamics during the 20th century simulated by the Community Land Model, Biogeo-sciences, 7, 1877-1902, doi:10.5194/bg-7-1877-2010, 2010.
18. Krawchuk, M., Moritz, M., Parisien, M., Dorn, J. V., and Hayhoe, K.: Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire, PloS One, 4, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102, 2009.
19. Lamarque, J. F., Kiehl, J., Brasseur, G., Butler, T., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins, W. D., Collins, W. J., Granier, C., Hauglustaine, D., Hess, P., Holland, E., Horowitz, L., Lawrence, M., McKenna, D., Merilees, P., Prather, M., Rasch, P., Rotman, D., Shindell, D., and Thornton, P.: Assessing future nitrogen deposition and carbon cycle feedbacks using a multi-model approach: Analysis of nitrogen deposition, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D19303, doi:10.1029/2005JD005825, 2005. (Pubitemid 41685044)
20. Lawrence, P., Feddema, J., Bonan, G., Meehl, G., O'Neill, B., Levis, S., Lawrence, D., Oleson, K., Kluzek, E., Lindsay, K., and Thornton, P.: Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of the transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100, J. Climate, accepted, 2011a.
21. Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Flanner, M. G., Thornton, P. E., Swenson, S. C., Lawrence, P. J., Zeng, X., Yang, Z.-L., Levis, S., Sakaguchi, K., Bonan, G. B., and Slater, A. G.: Parameterization improvements and functional and structural advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 3, 1-27, doi:10.1029/2011MS000045, 2011b.
22. LIS/OTD: Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector: NASA LIS/OTD Science Team (Principal Investigator, Dr. Hugh J. Christian, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center), available from the Global Hydrology Resource Center, available at: http://ghrc.msfc.nasa.gov, latest access 2011.
23. Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Walsh, M. K., Harrison, S. P., Brown, K. J., Edwards, M. E., Higuera, P. E., Power, M. J., Anderson, R. S., Briles, C., Brunelle, A., Carcaillet, C., Daniels, M., Hu, F. S., Lavoie, M., Long, C., Minckley, T., Richard, P. J. H., Scott, A. C., Shafer, D. S., Tinner, W., Umbanhowar, C. E., and Whitlock, C.: Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 2519-24, doi:10.1073/pnas. 0808212106, 2009.
24. Meehl, G., Washington, W., Santer, B., Collins W. D., Arblaster, J. M., Hu, A., Lawrence, D. M., Teng, H., Buja, L. E., and Strand, W. G.: Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3, J. Climate, 19, 2597-2616, 2006. (Pubitemid 43881298)
25. Meehl, G., Stocker, T., Collins, W., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A., Gregory, J., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Noda, J. M. A., Raper, S., Watterson, I., Weaver, A., and Zhao, Z.-C.: Global Climate Projections, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Wuin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., and Miller, H., Cambridge University Press, Cambrige, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
26. Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovix, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S.J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment., Nature, 463, 747-56, doi:10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
27. Nakicenovic, N., Davidson, O., Davis, G., Gruebler, A., Kram, T., La Rovere, E. L., Metz, B., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Sankovski, A., Shukla, P., Swart, R., Watson, R., and Dadi, Z.: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, in: Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000.
28. Oleson, K. W., Bonan, G. B., Feddema, J., Vertenstein, M., and Grimmong, C. S. B.: An urban paramterization for a global climate model. 1. Formulation and evaluation of two cities, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 47, 1038-1060, 2008.
29. Page, S. E., Siegert, F., Rieley, J. O., Boehm, H.-D. V., Jayak, A., and Limink, S.: The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997, Nature, 1, 61-65, 2002. (Pubitemid 35291438)
30. Pechony, O. and Shindell, D. T.: Fire parameterization on a global scale, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D16115, doi:10.1029/2009JD011927, 2009.
31. Pechony, O. and Shindell, D. T.: Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 107, 19167-19170, doi:10.1073/pnas.1003669107, 2010.
32. Pierce, E. T.: Latitudinal variation of lightning parameters, J. Appl. Meteorol., 9, 164-165, 1969.
33. Power, M., Marlon, J., Bartlein, P., and Harrison, S.: Fire history and the Global Charcoal Database: A new tool for hypothesis testing and data exploration, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol., 291, 52-59, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo. 2009.09.014, 2010.
34. Price, C. and Rind, D.: The impact of 2X CO2 Climate on lightning-caused flashes, J. Climate, 7, 1484-1494, 1994.
35. Qian, T., Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., and Oleson, K. W.: Simulation of global land surface conditions from 1948 to 2004. Part I: Forcing data and evaluations, J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 953, doi:10.1175/JHM540.1, 2006.
36. Randerson, J. T., Liu, H., Flanner, M. G., Chambers, S. D., Jin, Y., Hess, P. G., Pfister, G., Mack, M. C., Treseder, K. K., Welp, L. R., Chapin, F. S., Harden, J. W., Goulden, M. L., Lyons, E., Neff, J. C., Schuur, E. A. G., and Zender, C. S.: The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming, Science, 314, 1130-1132, doi:10.1126/science.1132075, 2006. (Pubitemid 44789040)
37. Randerson, J. T., Hoffman, F. M., Thornton, P. E., Mahowald, N. M., Lindsay, K., Lee, Y.-H., Nevison, C. D., Doney, S. C., Bonan, G., Stoeckli, R., Covey, C., Running, S. W., and Fung, I. Y.: Systematic assessment of terrestial biogeochemistry in coupled climate-carbon models, Glob. Change Biol., 15, 2462-2484, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x, 2009.
38. Roeckner, E., Brasseur, G., Giorgetta, M., Jacob, D., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., and Sillmann, J.: Climate Projections for the 21st Century, in: Internal Report, p. 28, Max Planck Institut fuer Me-teorologie, available at: http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/grafik/presse/ClimateProjections2006.pdf, 2006.
39. Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N. W., and Prentice, I. C.: A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 13116-13120, doi:10.1073/pnas.0601816103, 2006. (Pubitemid 44338925)
40. Seiler, W. and Crutzen, J.: Estimates of the gross and net fluxes of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere from biomass burning, Clim. Change, 2, 207-247, doi:10.1007/BF00137988, 1980. (Pubitemid 11269057)
41. Soja, A., Tchebakova, N., French, N., Flannigan, M., Shugart, H., Stocks, B., Sukhinin, A., Parfenova, E., Chapiniii, F., and Stack-housejr, P.: Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations, Global Planet. Change, 56, 274-296, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028, 2007. (Pubitemid 46621098)
42. Spracklen, D. V., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., Hudman, R. C., Yevich, R., Flannigan, M. D., and Westerling, A. L.: Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States, J. Geophys. Res., 114, 1-17, doi:10.1029/2008JD010966, 2009.
43. Stocks, B. J., Mason, J. A., Todd, J. B., Bosch, E. M., Wotton, B. M., Amiro, B. D., Flannigan, M. D., Hirsch, K. G., Logan, K. A., Martell, L. D., and Skinner, W. R.: Large forest fires in Canada, 1959-1997, J. Geophys. Res., 108, D18149, doi:10.1029/2001JD000484, 2003.
44. Stoeckli, R., Lawrence, D. M., Niu, G.-Y., Oleson, K. W., Thornton, P. E., Yang, Z.-L., Bonan, G. B., Denning, A. S., and Running, S. W.: The use of Fluxnet in the Community Land Model development, J. Geophys. Res., 113, G01025, doi:10.1029/2007JG000562, 2008.
45. Taylor, K., Stouffer, R., and Meehl, G.: A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design, available at: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor CMIP5 design.pdf (last access: July 2011), 2009.
46. Theobald, M. T. and Romme, W. H.: Expansion of the US wildland-urban interface, Landsc. Urban Plan., 83, 340-354, doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2007.06. 002, 2007. (Pubitemid 350087304)
47. Thonicke, K., Venevsky, S., and Sitch, S.: The role of fire disturbance for global vegetation dynamics : coupling fire into a dynamic global vegetation model, Ecology, 661-677, 2001.
48. Thornton, P. E., Lamarque, J. F., Rosenbloom, N. A., and Mahowald, N. M.: Influence of carbon-nitrogen cycle coupling on land model response to CO2 fertilization and climate variability, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 21, GB4018, doi:1029/2006GB002868, 2007.
49. Thornton, P. E., Doney, S. C., Lindsay, K., Moore, J. K., Ma-howald, N., Randerson, J. T., Fung, I., Lamarque, J.-F., Fed-dema, J. J., and Lee, Y.-H.: Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, Biogeosciences, 6, 2099-2120, doi:10.5194/bg-6-2099-2009, 2009.
50. Turetsky, M. R., Kane, E. S., Harden, J. W., Ottmar, R. D., Ma-nies, K. L., Hoy, E., and Kasischke, E. S.: Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peat-lands, Nature Geosci., 4, 27-31, doi:10.1038/ngeo1027, 2011.
51. Van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Kasibhatla, P. S., and Arellano Jr., A. F.: Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004, At-mos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3423-3441, doi:10.5194/acp-6-3423-2006, 2006. (Pubitemid 44272961)
52. Van der Werf, G. R., Randerson, J. T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G. J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P. S., Morton, D. C., DeFries, R. S., Jin, Y., and van Leeuwen, T. T.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 11707-11735, doi:10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010.
53. Venevsky, S., Thonicke, K., Sitch, S., and Cramer, W.: Simulating fire regimes in human-dominated ecosystems: Iberian Peninsula case study, Global Change Biology, 8, 984-998, 2002.
54. Wania, R., Ross, I., and Prentice, I. C.: Integrating peatlands and permafrost into a dynamic global vegetation model: 1. Evaluation and sensitivity of physical land surface processes, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30, GB3014, doi:10.1029/2008GB003412, 2009.
55. Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., and Swetnam, T. W.: Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity., Science (New York, N.Y.), 313, 940-943, doi:10.1126/science.1128834, 2006. (Pubitemid 44274884)
56. Westerling, A. L., Turner, M. G., Smithwick, E. A. H., Romme, W. H., and Ryan, M. G.: Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by the mid-21st century, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1, 6, 2011.
57. Wotton, B. M., Nock, C. A., and Flannigan, M. D.: Forest Fire occurence and climate change in Canada, International Journal of Wildlandfire, 19, 253, 2010.