A preliminary look at the social perspective of warn-on-forecast: Preferred tornado warning lead time and the general public's perceptions of weather risks

Weather, Climate, and Society

Volumn 3, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 128-140

  Hoekstra, S ^a,b   Klockow, K ^b,c   Riley, R ^b,c   Brotzge, J ^b   Brooks, H ^d   Erickson, S ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^d NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84866310285     PISSN: 19488327     EISSN: 19488335     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011WCAS1076.1     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Ashley, W., 2007: Spatial and temporal analysis of tornado fatalities in the United States: 1880-2005. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1214-1228.
2. Balluz, L., L. Schieve, T. Holmes, S. Kiezak, and J. Malilay, 2000: Predictors for people's response to a tornado warning, Arkansas, March 1, 1997. Disasters, 24, 71-77.
3. Bieringer, P., and P. S. Ray, 1996: A comparison of tornado warning lead times with and without NEXRAD Doppler radar. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 47-52.
4. Brooks, H. E., cited 2010: Severe thunderstorm climatology. [Available online at http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/.]
5. -, C. A. Doswell III, and M. P. Kay, 2003: Climatological estimates of local daily tornado probability for the United States. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 626-640.
6. Donner, W. R., 2007: The political ecology of disaster: An analysis of factors influencing U.S. tornado fatalities and injuries, 1998-2000. Demography, 44, 669-685.
7. Doswell, C. A., cited 1999: Are warning lead times the most important issue in tornado events? WeatherZine, Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Boulder, CO, No. 17. [Available online at http://sciencepolicy. colorado.edu/zine/archives/1-29/17/editorial.html.]
8. -, A. R. Moller, and H. E. Brooks, 1999: Storm spotting and public awareness since the first tornado forecasts of 1948. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 544-557.
9. Erickson, S., and H. Brooks, 2006: Lead time and time under tornado warnings: 1986-2004. Extended Abstracts, 23rd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11.5. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ ams/23SLS/techprogram/paper-115194.htm.]
10. Ewald, R., and G. L. Guyer, 2002: The ideal lead time for tornado warnings-A look from the customer's perspective. Extended Abstracts, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7.4. [Available online at http://ams. confex.com/ams/SLS-WAF-NWP/techprogram/paper-47592.htm.]
11. Golden, J. H., and C. R. Adams, 2000: The tornado problem: Forecast, warning, and response. Nat. Hazards Rev., 1 (2), 107-118.
12. Hammer, B., and T. W. Schmidlin, 2002: Response to warnings during the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado: Reasons and relative injury rates. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 577-581.
13. Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1979: Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
14. NWS, cited 2010: Weather fatality, injury, and damage statistics. [Available online at http://www.weather.gov/os/hazstats.shtm.]
15. Riad, J. K., F. H. Norris, and R. B. Ruback, 1999: Predicting evacuation in two major disasters: Risk perception, social influence, and access to resources. J. Appl. Soc. Psychol., 29, 918-934.
16. Schmidt, M., cited 2004: Investigating risk perception: A short introduction. [Available online at http://www.markusschmidt.eu/pdf/Intro-risk- perception-Schmidt.pdf.]
17. Simmons, K. M., and D. Sutter, 2006: Improvements in tornado warnings and tornado casualties. Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters, 23, 351-369.
18. -, and -, 2008: Tornado warnings, lead times, and tornado casualties: An empirical investigation. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 246-258.
19. Sims, J. H., and D. D. Baumann, 1972: The tornado threat: Coping styles of the north and south. Science, 176, 1386-1392.
20. Slovic, P., 1987: Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280-285.
21. Sorensen, J. H., 2000: Hazard warning systems: Review of 20 years of progress. Nat. Hazards Rev., 1, 119-125.
22. Stensrud, D. J., and Coauthors, 2009: Convective-scale warn-onforecast: A vision for 2020. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1487-1499.