A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

Geophysical Journal International

Volumn 190, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 1579-1592

  Eberhard, David A J ^a   Zechar, J Douglas ^a,b   Wiemer, Stefan ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Probabilistic forecasting; Probability distributions; Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

COLLABORATORIES; EARTHQUAKE FORECAST; EARTHQUAKE LOCATION; EVALUATION METRICS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING; ROBUSTNESS OF MODEL; SEISMIC MOMENT; STATISTICAL MODELS; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES; WESTERN PACIFIC;

EARTHQUAKES; EXPERIMENTS; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; STATISTICAL TESTS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FORECASTING;

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; SEISMIC MOMENT; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 84865290729     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05548.x     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Akaike, H., 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Autom. Control, 19(6), 716-723.
2. Bird, P. & Liu, Z., 2007. Seismic hazard inferred from tectonics: California, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78(1), 37-48.
3. Clements, R.A., 2011. A comparison of residual analysis methods for space-time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models, PhD thesis, University of California, Los Angeles, CA.
4. Clements, R.A., Schoenberg, F.P. & Schorlemmer, D., 2011. Residual analysis methods for space-time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California, Ann. Appl. Stat., 5(4), 2549-2571.
5. Dziewonski, A.M., Chou, T.-A. & Woodhouse, J.H., 1981. Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity, J. geophys. Res., 86(B4), 2825-2852.
6. Ekström, G., Dziewonski, A., Maternovskaya, N. & Nettles, M., 2005. Global seismicity of 2003: centroidmoment-tensor solutions for 1087 earthquakes, Phys. Earth planet. Inter., 148(2-4), 327-351.
7. Field, E.H., 2007. Overview of the working group for the development of regional earthquake likelihood models (RELM), Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 7-16.
8. Gardner, J. & Knopoff, L., 1974. Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 64(5), 1363-1367.
9. Gerstenberger, M.C. & Rhoades, D.A., 2010. New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre, Pure appl. Geophys., 167(8-9), 877-892.
10. Gutenberg, B. & Richter, C.F., 1954. Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, 2nd edn, Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ
11. Harte, D. & Vere-Jones, D., 2005. The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting, Pure appl. Geophys., 162(6-7), 1229-1253.
12. Holliday, J.R., Nanjo, K.Z., Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B. & Turcotte, D.L., 2005. Earthquake forecasting and its verification, Nonlinear Process. Geophys., 2002, 965-977.
13. Husen, S. & Hardebeck, J.L., 2010. Earthquake location accuracy, Comm. Online Resour. Stat. Seism. Anal., 1-35.
14. Jackson, D.D. & Kagan, Y.Y., 1999. Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999, Seism. Res. Lett., 70(4), 393-403.
15. Jordan, T.H., 2006. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick, Seism. Res. Lett., 77(1), 3-6.
16. Kagan, Y., 2003. Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs, Phys. Earth planet. Inter., 135(2-3), 173-209.
17. Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 1994. Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, J. geophys. Res., 99(B7), 13685-13700.
18. Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2000. Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Inter., 143(2), 438-453.
19. Kagan, Y.Y. & Jackson, D.D., 2010. Earthquake forecasting in diverse tectonic zones of the globe, Pure appl. Geophys., 167(6-7), 709-719.
20. Kass, R.E. & Raftery, A.E., 1995. Bayes factors, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 90(430), 773-795, doi:10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572.
21. Knopoff, L., 1964. The statistics of earthquakes in southern, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 54(6), 1871-1873.
22. Lombardi, a.M. & Marzocchi, W., 2010. The Assumption of Poisson seismic-rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(5A), 2293-2300.
23. Marzocchi, W. & Lombardi, A.M., 2008. A double branching model for earthquake occurrence, J. geophys. Res., 113(B8), 1-12.
24. Marzocchi, W., Zechar, J.D. & Jordan, T.H., 2012 Bayesian Forecast Evaluation and Ensemble Earthquake Forecasting, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., in press.
25. Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N. & Jordan, T.H., 2011. Overview of the first earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan, Earth, Planets Space, 63(3), 159-169.
26. Ogata, Y., 1988. Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83(401), 9-27.
27. Ogata, Y., 1989. Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, Tectonophysics, 169(1-3), 159-174.
28. Ogata, Y., 1999. Seismicity analysis through point-process modeling: a review, Pure appl. Geophys., 155(2-4), 471-507.
29. Ogata, Y., 2011. Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth, Planets Space, 63(3), 217-229.
30. Omori, F., 1894. On the aftershocks of earthquakes, J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo, 7, 111-200.
31. Reasenberg, P., 1985. Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-1982, J. geophys. Res., 90(B7), 5479-5495.
32. Rhoades, D.A., Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J.D. & Imoto, M., 2011. Efficient testing of earthquake forecasting models, Acta Geophysica, 59(4), 728-747.
33. Sawilowsky, S.S. & Blair, R.C., 1992. A more realistic look at the robustness and Type II error properties of the t test to departures from population normality, Psychol. Bull., 111(2), 352-360.
34. Schorlemmer, D. & Gerstenberger, M.C., 2007. RELM testing center, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 30-36.
35. Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M.C., Wiemer, S., Jackson, D.D. & Rhoades, D.A., 2007. Earthquake likelihood model testing, Seism. Res. Lett., 78(1), 17-29.
36. Schorlemmer, D., Christophersen, A., Rovida, A., Mele, F., Stucchi, M. & Marzocchi, W., 2010a. Setting up an earthquake forecast experiment in Italy, Ann. Geophys., 53(3), 1-9.
37. Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D., Werner, M.J., Field, E.H., Jackson, D.D. & Jordan, T.H., 2010. First results of the regional earthquake likelihood models experiment, Pure appl. Geophys., 167(8-9), 859-876.
38. Smith, G.P. & Ekström, G., 1997. Interpretation of earthquake epicenter and CMT centroid locations, in terms of rupture length and direction, Phys. Earth planet. Inter., 9201(96).
39. Student, 1908. The Probable Error of a Mean, Biometrika, 6(1), 1-24.
40. Utsu, T., 1961. A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks, Geophys. Mag., 30 521-605.
41. van Stiphout, T., Schorlemmer, D. & Wiemer, S., 2011. The effect of uncertainties on estimates of background seismicity rate, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 101(2), 482-494.
42. van Stiphout, T., Schorlemmer, D. & Marsan, D., 2012. Seismicity declustering, Comm. Online Resour. Stat. Seism. Anal., 1-26.
43. Werner, M.J. & Sornette, D., 2008. Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic rate estimates, forecasts, and predictability experiments, J. geophys. Res., 113, B08302, doi:10.1029/2007JB005427.
44. Werner, M.J., Zechar, J.D., Marzocchi, W., Wiemer, S. & Nazionale, I., 2010. Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP Italy earthquake forecasts, Ann. Geophys., 53(3), 11-30, doi:10.4401/ag-4840.
45. Wiemer, S. & Wyss, M., 2000. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 90(4), 859-869.
46. Wilcoxon, F., 1945. Individual comparisons by ranking methods, Biometr. Bull., 1(6), 80-83, doi:10.2307/3001968.
47. Woessner, J. & Wiemer, S., 2005. Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 95(2), 684-698, doi:10.1785/0120040007.
48. Zechar, J.D. & Jordan, T.H., 2010. Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy, Ann. Geophys., 53, 99-105, doi:10.4401/ag-4845.
49. Zechar, J.D., Gerstenberger, M.C. & Rhoades, D.A., 2010a. Likelihood-based tests for evaluating space-rate-magnitude earthquake forecasts, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 100(3), 1184-1195.
50. Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Liukis, M., Yu, J., Euchner, F., Maechling, P.J. & Jordan, T.H., 2010b. The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurrency Comput.: Prac. Exp., 22(12), 1836-1847.
51. Zhuang, J., 2010. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts, Geophys. J. Int., 181(1), 382-390.