Retrospective evaluation of the five-year and ten-year CSEP-Italy earthquake forecasts

Annals of Geophysics

Volumn 53, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 11-30

  Werner, Maximilian J ^a   Zechar, J Douglas ^a,b   Marzocchi, Warner ^c   Wiemer, Stefan ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^b Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^c ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FORECASTING METHOD; SEISMIC DATA; SEISMICITY;

ITALY;

EID: 78549273031     PISSN: 15935213     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4401/ag-4840     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Trans. Automatic Control, AC-19, 716-723.
2. Akinci, A. (2010). HAZGRIDX: earthquake forecasting model for ML≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Italy based on spatially smoothed seismicity, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
3. Bird, P. and Y.Y. Kagan (2004). Plate-tectonic analysis of shallow seismicity: Apparent boundary width, beta, corner magnitude, coupled lithosphere thickness, and coupling in seven tectonic settings, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 94, 2380-2399; doi: 10.1785/0120030107.
4. Castello, B., M. Olivieri and B. Selvaggi (2007). Local and duration magnitude determination for the Italian earthquake catalog, 1981-2002, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97, 128-139; doi: 10.1785/0120050258.
5. Chan, C.-H., M.B. Sørensen, D. Stromeyer, G. Grünthal, O. Heidbach, A. Hakimhashemi and F. Catalli (2010). Forecasting Italian seismicity through a spatio-temporal physical model: importance of considering timedependency and reliability of the forecast, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
6. Chiarabba, C., L. Jovane and R. Stefano (2005). A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings, Tectonophysics, 395, 251-268.
7. Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 58 (5), 1583-1606.
8. Daley, D.J. and D. Vere-Jones (2003). An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes, vol. I, New York, USA.
9. Evison, F.F. (1999). On the existence of earthquake precursors, Annals of Geophysics, 42 (5), 763-770.
10. Faenza, L. and W. Marzocchi (2010). The Proportional Hazard Model as applied to the CSEP forcasting area in Italy, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
11. Falcone, G., R. Console and M. Murru (2010). Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
12. Field, E.H. (2007). A summary of previous Working Groups on California Earthquake Probabilities, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97 (4), 1033-1053, doi: 10.1785/0120060048.
13. Gardner, J.K. and L. Knopoff (1974). Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., 64 (5), 1363-1367.
14. Gulia, L., S. Wiemer and D. Schorlemmer (2010). Asperitybased earthquake likelihood models for Italy, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
15. Harte, D. and D. Vere-Jones (2005). The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162, 1229-1253; doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2667-2.
16. Jackson, D.D. and Y.Y. Kagan (1999). Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999, Seismol. Res. Lett., 70 (4), 393-403.
17. Jordan, T.H. (2006). Earthquake predictability: Brick by brick, Seismol. Res. Lett., 77 (1), 3-6.
18. Kagan, Y.Y. (1973). Statistical methods in the study of seismic processes, Bull. Int. Stat. Inst., 45 (3), 437-453 (with discussion).
19. Kagan, Y. and L. Knopoff (1977). Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 14, 97-108; doi: 10.1016/0031-9201(77)90147-9.
20. Kagan, Y.Y. (2009). Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams, Geophys. J. Intern., 177 (2), 532-542; doi: f10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04064.xg.
21. Kagan, Y.Y. (2010). Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: Consequence of branching process, Geophys. J. Intern., 180, 1313-1328; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04487.x.
22. L≥ 5.0) within the CSEP project, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
23. Lombardi, A.M. and W. Marzocchi (2010b). Exploring the per-formances and usability of the CSEP suite of tests, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., in review.
24. Molchan, G. and V. Keilis-Borok (2008). Earthquake prediction: probabilistic aspect, Geophysical Journal International, 173, 1012-1017; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03785.x.
25. MPS Working Group (2004). Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall'Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003, Rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-Roma, April 2004 (MPS04), 65 pp. + 5 appendices; http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it.
26. Nanjo, K.Z. (2010). Earthquake forecast models for Italy based on the RI algorithm, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
27. Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times of paleoearthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 104 (B8), 17995-18014.
28. Pace, B., L. Peruzza and F. Visini (2010). LASSCI2009.2: layered earthquake rupture forecast model for central Italy, submitted to the CSEP project, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
29. Reasenberg, P. (1985). Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-82, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 5479-5495.
30. Rong, Y.F. and D.D. Jackson (2002). Earthquake potential in and around China: Estimated from past earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (16); doi: f10.1029/2002GL015297g.
31. Rovida, A. and the CPTI Working Group (2008). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, 1901-2006, versione 2008 (CPTI08), INGV, Milano-Pavia; http://www.cseptesting.org/regions/italy.
32. Saichev, A. and D. Sornette (2006). Power law distribution of seismic rates: theory and data analysis, Eur. Phys. J. B, 49, 377-401; doi: 10.1140/epjb/e2006-00075-3.
33. Schoenberg, F.P. (2003). Multidimensional residual analysis of point process models for earthquake occurrences, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 98 (464), 789-795; doi: 10.1198/016214503000000710.
34. Schorlemmer, D. and M.C. Gerstenberger (2007). RELM testing center, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78 (1), 30.
35. Schorlemmer, D., M.C. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D.D. Jackson and D.A. Rhoades (2007). Earthquake likelihood model testing, Seismol. Res. Lett., 78 (1), 17.
36. Schorlemmer, D. and J. Woessner (2008). Probability of Detecting an Earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 98 (5), 2103-2117; doi: 10.1785/0120070105.
37. Schorlemmer, D., A. Christophersen, A. Rovida, F. Mele, M. Stucci and W. Marzocchi (2010a). Setting up an earthquake forecast experiment in Italy, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
38. Schorlemmer, D., J.D. Zechar, M.J. Werner, E. Field, D.D. Jackson and T.H. Jordan (2010b). First results of the regional earthquake likelihood models experiment, Pure and Appl. Geophys.: The Frank Evison Volume, 167 (8-9); doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0081-5.
39. Schorlemmer, D., F. Mele and W. Marzocchi (2010c). A completeness analysis of the National Seismic Network of Italy, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 115; doi: 10.1029/2008JB006097.
40. Vere-Jones, D. (1970). Stochastic models for earthquake occurrence, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Series B (Methodological), 32 (1), 1-62 (with discussion).
41. Weichert, D.H. (1980). Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 70 (4), 1337-1346.
42. Werner, M.J. and D. Sornette (2008). Magnitude uncertainties impact seismic rate estimates, forecasts and predictability experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 113; doi: 10.1029/2007JB005427.
43. Werner, M.J., A. Helmstetter, D.D. Jackson and Y.Y. Kagan (2010a). High resolution long- and short-term earthquake forecasts for California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., in revision; preprint available at http://arxiv.org/abs/0910.4981.
44. Werner, M.J., A. Helmstetter, D.D. Jackson, Y.Y. Kagan and S.Wiemer (2010b). Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue); preprint available at http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.4374.
45. Wiemer, S. and D. Schorlemmer (2007). ALM: An Asperitybased Likelihood Model for California, Seismological Research Letters, 78 (1), 134-140; doi:10.1785/gssrl.78.1.134.
46. Woessner, J. and S. Wiemer (2005). Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95 (2), 684-698.
47. Zechar, J.D. and T.H. Jordan (2008). Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions, Geophys. J. Int., 172 (2), 715-724; doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03676.x.
48. Zechar, J.D. and T.H. Jordan (2010a). The area skill score statistic for evaluating earthquake predictability experiments, Pure and Appl. Geophys., 167 (8-9); doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0086-0.
49. Zechar, J.D. and T.H. Jordan (2010b). Simple smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy, Annals of Geophysics, 53, 3 (present issue).
50. Zechar, J.D., M.C. Gerstenberger and D. Rhoades (2010a). Likelihood-based tests for evaluating the spatial and magnitude component of earthquake rate forecasts, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100 (3); doi: 10.1785/0120090192.
51. Zechar, J.D., D. Schorlemmer, M. Liukis, J. Yu, F. Euchner, P.J. Maechling and T.H. Jordan (2010b). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability perspective on computational earthquake science, Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 22, 1836-1847; doi: 10.1002/cpe.1519.