메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 181, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 382-390

Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

Author keywords

Probabilistic forecasting; Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FORECASTING METHOD; MODELING; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 77952577255     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04496.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (28)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 0038790412 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the statistics of the linked stress release process
    • Bebbington M, Harte D. On the statistics of the linked stress release process. J. Appl. Probab. 2001, 38A:176-187.
    • (2001) J. Appl. Probab. , vol.38 A , pp. 176-187
    • Bebbington, M.1    Harte, D.2
  • 2
    • 0141837222 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The linked stress release model for spatio-temporal seismicity: formulations, procedures and applications
    • Bebbington M, Harte D. The linked stress release model for spatio-temporal seismicity: formulations, procedures and applications. Geophys. J. Int. 2003, 154:925-946.
    • (2003) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.154 , pp. 925-946
    • Bebbington, M.1    Harte, D.2
  • 3
    • 29244468583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information gains for stress release models
    • Bebbington MS. Information gains for stress release models. Pure appl. Geophys. 2005, 162:2299-2319.
    • (2005) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.162 , pp. 2299-2319
    • Bebbington, M.S.1
  • 4
    • 0034339274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explicit formulae for stationary distributions of stress release processes
    • Borovkov K, Vere-Jones D. Explicit formulae for stationary distributions of stress release processes. J. Appl. Probab. 2000, 37(2):315-321.
    • (2000) J. Appl. Probab. , vol.37 , Issue.2 , pp. 315-321
    • Borovkov, K.1    Vere-Jones, D.2
  • 5
    • 1442291143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Refining earthquake clustering models
    • doi: 10.1029/2002JB002130
    • Console R, Murru M, Lombardi AM. Refining earthquake clustering models. J. geophys. Res. 2003, 108(B10):2468. 10.1029/2002JB002130, doi
    • (2003) J. geophys. Res. , vol.108 , Issue.10 B , pp. 2468
    • Console, R.1    Murru, M.2    Lombardi, A.M.3
  • 7
    • 22944473984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling
    • doi: 10.1029/2004JB003247
    • Hainzl S, Ogata Y. Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling. J. geophys. Res. 2005, 110:B05S07. 10.1029/2004JB003247, doi
    • (2005) J. geophys. Res. , vol.110
    • Hainzl, S.1    Ogata, Y.2
  • 8
    • 20344380428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting
    • Harte D, Vere-Jones D. The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting. Pure appl. Geophys. 2005, 162(6):1229-1253.
    • (2005) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.162 , Issue.6 , pp. 1229-1253
    • Harte, D.1    Vere-Jones, D.2
  • 9
    • 0002920214 scopus 로고
    • Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes
    • Hawkes A. Spectra of some self-exciting and mutually exciting point processes. Biometrika 1971a, 58:83-90.
    • (1971) Biometrika , vol.58 , pp. 83-90
    • Hawkes, A.1
  • 10
    • 0002920216 scopus 로고
    • Point spectra of some mutually exciting point processes
    • Hawkes A. Point spectra of some mutually exciting point processes. J. R. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (Stat. Methodol.) 1971b, 33:438-443.
    • (1971) J. R. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (Stat. Methodol.) , vol.33 , pp. 438-443
    • Hawkes, A.1
  • 11
    • 1442266653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity
    • doi: 10.1029/2003JB002485
    • Helmstetter A, Sornette D. Foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity. J. geophys. Res. 2003, 108(B10):2457. 10.1029/2003JB002485, doi
    • (2003) J. geophys. Res. , vol.108 , Issue.10 B , pp. 2457
    • Helmstetter, A.1    Sornette, D.2
  • 12
    • 1442315645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are aftershocks of large californian earthquakes diffusing?
    • doi: 10.1029/2003JB002503
    • Helmstetter A, Ouillon G, Sornette D. Are aftershocks of large californian earthquakes diffusing?. J. geophys. Res. 2003, 108(B10):2483. 10.1029/2003JB002503, doi
    • (2003) J. geophys. Res. , vol.108 , Issue.10 B , pp. 2483
    • Helmstetter, A.1    Ouillon, G.2    Sornette, D.3
  • 13
    • 0000363656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999
    • Jackson DD, Kagan YY. Testable earthquake forecasts for 1999. Seism. Res. Lett. 1999, 70:393-403.
    • (1999) Seism. Res. Lett. , vol.70 , pp. 393-403
    • Jackson, D.D.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2
  • 14
    • 0004574161 scopus 로고
    • Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process
    • Kagan Y, Knopoff L. Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process. Phys. Earth planet. Inter. 1977, 14(2):97-108.
    • (1977) Phys. Earth planet. Inter. , vol.14 , Issue.2 , pp. 97-108
    • Kagan, Y.1    Knopoff, L.2
  • 15
    • 0033732689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes
    • Kagan YY, Jackson DD. Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Geophys. J. Int. 2000, 143:438-453.
    • (2000) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.143 , pp. 438-453
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Jackson, D.D.2
  • 16
    • 85016362878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation of the upper cutoff parameter for the tapered pareto distribution
    • Kagan YY, Schoenberg F. Estimation of the upper cutoff parameter for the tapered pareto distribution. J. Appl. Probab. 2001, 38A:158-175.
    • (2001) J. Appl. Probab. , vol.38 A , pp. 158-175
    • Kagan, Y.Y.1    Schoenberg, F.2
  • 17
    • 0342964677 scopus 로고
    • Periods of high probability of occurrence of the world's strongest earthquakes
    • Keilis-Borok VI, Kossobokov VG. Periods of high probability of occurrence of the world's strongest earthquakes. Comput. Seismol. 1987, 19:45-53.
    • (1987) Comput. Seismol. , vol.19 , pp. 45-53
    • Keilis-Borok, V.I.1    Kossobokov, V.G.2
  • 19
    • 0000982469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The principal of coupled stress release model and its application
    • Liu J, Vere-Jones D, Ma L, Shi Y, Zhuang J. The principal of coupled stress release model and its application. Acta Seismol. Sin. 1998, 11:273-281.
    • (1998) Acta Seismol. Sin. , vol.11 , pp. 273-281
    • Liu, J.1    Vere-Jones, D.2    Ma, L.3    Shi, Y.4    Zhuang, J.5
  • 20
    • 0034470133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of linked stress release model to historical earthquake data: comparison between two kinds of tectonic seismicity
    • Lu C, Vere-Jones D. Application of linked stress release model to historical earthquake data: comparison between two kinds of tectonic seismicity. Pure appl. Geophys. 2000, 157:2351-2364.
    • (2000) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.157 , pp. 2351-2364
    • Lu, C.1    Vere-Jones, D.2
  • 21
    • 0033369397 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A linked stress release model for historical japanese earthquakes: coupling among major seismic regions
    • Lu C, Harte D, Bebbington M. A linked stress release model for historical japanese earthquakes: coupling among major seismic regions. Earth Planets Space 1999, 51:907-918.
    • (1999) Earth Planets Space , vol.51 , pp. 907-918
    • Lu, C.1    Harte, D.2    Bebbington, M.3
  • 22
    • 4143128020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relative quiescence within the jiashi swarm in china: an application of the etas point process model
    • Ma L, Zhuang J. Relative quiescence within the jiashi swarm in china: an application of the etas point process model. J. Appl. Probab. 2001, 38(A):213-221.
    • (2001) J. Appl. Probab. , vol.38 , Issue.A , pp. 213-221
    • Ma, L.1    Zhuang, J.2
  • 23
    • 0025244828 scopus 로고
    • Strategies in strong earthquake prediction
    • 1.2
    • Molchan GM. Strategies in strong earthquake prediction. Phys. Earth planet. Inter. 1990, 61(1.2):84-98.
    • (1990) Phys. Earth planet. Inter. , vol.61 , pp. 84-98
    • Molchan, G.M.1
  • 24
    • 0026299255 scopus 로고
    • Structure of optimal strategies in earthquake prediction
    • Molchan GM. Structure of optimal strategies in earthquake prediction. Tectonophysics 1991, 193(4):267-276.
    • (1991) Tectonophysics , vol.193 , Issue.4 , pp. 267-276
    • Molchan, G.M.1
  • 25
    • 0030920023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem
    • Molchan GM. Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem. Pure appl. Geophys. 1997, 149(1):233-247.
    • (1997) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.149 , Issue.1 , pp. 233-247
    • Molchan, G.M.1
  • 26
    • 2942700595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Earthquake prediction strategies: a theoretical analysis
    • Keilis-Borok VI, Soloviev AA. eds, Springer, Heidelberg
    • Molchan GM. Earthquake prediction strategies: a theoretical analysis. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction 2003, 208-237. Keilis-Borok VISoloviev AA. in, pp, eds, Springer, Heidelberg
    • (2003) Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction , pp. 208-237
    • Molchan, G.M.1
  • 27
    • 0026454371 scopus 로고
    • Earthquake prediction and its optimization
    • Molchan GM, Kagan YY. Earthquake prediction and its optimization. J. geophys. Res. 1992, 97(B4):4823-4838.
    • (1992) J. geophys. Res. , vol.97 , Issue.4 B , pp. 4823-4838
    • Molchan, G.M.1    Kagan, Y.Y.2
  • 28
    • 33846500780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan
    • Nanjo KZ, Rundle JB, Holliday JR, Turcotte DL. Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan. Pure appl. Geophys. 2006, 163(11-12):2417-2432.
    • (2006) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.163 , Issue.11-12 , pp. 2417-2432
    • Nanjo, K.Z.1    Rundle, J.B.2    Holliday, J.R.3    Turcotte, D.L.4
  • 29
    • 0012346731 scopus 로고
    • Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes
    • Ogata Y. Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1988, 83:9-27.
    • (1988) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.83 , pp. 9-27
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 30
    • 0024939444 scopus 로고
    • Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis
    • Ogata Y. Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis. Tectonophysics 1989, 169:159-174.
    • (1989) Tectonophysics , vol.169 , pp. 159-174
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 31
    • 0027099997 scopus 로고
    • Detection of precursory seismic quiescence before major earthquakes through a statistical model
    • Ogata Y. Detection of precursory seismic quiescence before major earthquakes through a statistical model. J. geophys. Res. 1992, 97:19 845-19 871.
    • (1992) J. geophys. Res. , vol.97
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 32
    • 0001663614 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences
    • Ogata Y. Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. 1998, 50:379-402.
    • (1998) Ann. Inst. Stat. Math. , vol.50 , pp. 379-402
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 33
    • 2542463287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes
    • doi: 10.1029/2003JB002621
    • Ogata Y. Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes. J. geophys. Res. 2004, 109(B3):B03308. 10.1029/2003JB002621, doi
    • (2004) J. geophys. Res. , vol.109 , Issue.3 B
    • Ogata, Y.1
  • 34
    • 30944459507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Space-time etas models and an improved extension
    • Ogata Y, Zhuang J. Space-time etas models and an improved extension. Tectnophysics 2006, 413(1-2):13-23.
    • (2006) Tectnophysics , vol.413 , Issue.1-2 , pp. 13-23
    • Ogata, Y.1    Zhuang, J.2
  • 35
    • 0037133193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: the influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecastings
    • Rundle JB, Tiampo KF, Klein W, Martins JSS. Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: the influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecastings. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2002, 99:2514-2519.
    • (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. , vol.99 , pp. 2514-2519
    • Rundle, J.B.1    Tiampo, K.F.2    Klein, W.3    Martins, J.S.S.4
  • 36
    • 1842783415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems
    • doi: 10.1029/2003RG000135
    • Rundle JB, Turcotte DL, Shcherbakov R, Klein W, Sammis C. Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems. Rev. Geophys. 2003, 41(4):1019. 10.1029/2003RG000135, doi
    • (2003) Rev. Geophys. , vol.41 , Issue.4 , pp. 1019
    • Rundle, J.B.1    Turcotte, D.L.2    Shcherbakov, R.3    Klein, W.4    Sammis, C.5
  • 37
    • 0000418489 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of mechanical and statistical models to study of seismicity of synthetic earthquakes and the prediction of natural ones
    • Shi Y, Liu J, Vere-Jones D, Zhuang J, Ma L. Application of mechanical and statistical models to study of seismicity of synthetic earthquakes and the prediction of natural ones. Acta Seismol. Sin. 1998, 11:421-430.
    • (1998) Acta Seismol. Sin. , vol.11 , pp. 421-430
    • Shi, Y.1    Liu, J.2    Vere-Jones, D.3    Zhuang, J.4    Ma, L.5
  • 38
    • 85020730944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An evaluation of chinese earthqauike prediction, 1990-1998
    • Shi Y, Liu J, Zhang G. An evaluation of chinese earthqauike prediction, 1990-1998. J. Appl. Probab. 2001, 38A:222-231.
    • (2001) J. Appl. Probab. , vol.38 A , pp. 222-231
    • Shi, Y.1    Liu, J.2    Zhang, G.3
  • 39
    • 0003069569 scopus 로고
    • On the variance properties of the stress release models
    • Vere-Jones D. On the variance properties of the stress release models. Aust. N. Z. J. Stat. 1988, 30A(1):123-135.
    • (1988) Aust. N. Z. J. Stat. , vol.30 A , Issue.1 , pp. 123-135
    • Vere-Jones, D.1
  • 40
    • 0004580669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability and information gain for earthquake forecasting
    • Vere-Jones D. Probability and information gain for earthquake forecasting. Comput. Seismol. 1998, 30:248-263.
    • (1998) Comput. Seismol. , vol.30 , pp. 248-263
    • Vere-Jones, D.1
  • 41
    • 0035100570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Remarks on the accelerated moment release model: problems of model formulation, simulation and estimation
    • Vere-Jones D, Robinson R, Yang W. Remarks on the accelerated moment release model: problems of model formulation, simulation and estimation. Geophys. J. Int. 2001, 144(3):517-531.
    • (2001) Geophys. J. Int. , vol.144 , Issue.3 , pp. 517-531
    • Vere-Jones, D.1    Robinson, R.2    Yang, W.3
  • 42
    • 0001579693 scopus 로고
    • Ergodic theorems for stress release processes
    • Zheng X. Ergodic theorems for stress release processes. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 1991, 37:239-258.
    • (1991) Stoch. Proc. Appl. , vol.37 , pp. 239-258
    • Zheng, X.1
  • 43
    • 0025953198 scopus 로고
    • Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from north china
    • Zheng X, Vere-Jones D. Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from north china. Pure appl. Geophys. 1991, 135(4):559-576.
    • (1991) Pure appl. Geophys. , vol.135 , Issue.4 , pp. 559-576
    • Zheng, X.1    Vere-Jones, D.2
  • 44
    • 0028192947 scopus 로고
    • Further applications of the stochastic stress release model to historical earthquake data
    • Zheng X, Vere-Jones D. Further applications of the stochastic stress release model to historical earthquake data. Tectonophysics 1994, 229:101-121.
    • (1994) Tectonophysics , vol.229 , pp. 101-121
    • Zheng, X.1    Vere-Jones, D.2
  • 45
    • 33746216302 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation
    • Zhuang J. Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation. J. Roy. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (Stat. Methodol.) 2006, 68(4):635-653.
    • (2006) J. Roy. Stat. Soc.: Ser. B (Stat. Methodol.) , vol.68 , Issue.4 , pp. 635-653
    • Zhuang, J.1
  • 46
    • 0035998813 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences
    • Zhuang J, Ogata Y, Vere-Jones D. Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 2002, 97(3):369-380.
    • (2002) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.97 , Issue.3 , pp. 369-380
    • Zhuang, J.1    Ogata, Y.2    Vere-Jones, D.3
  • 47
    • 4644316414 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction
    • doi: 10.1029/2004JB003157
    • Zhuang J, Ogata Y, Vere-Jones D. Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction. J. geophys. Res. 2004, B5(3):B05301. 10.1029/2004JB003157, doi
    • (2004) J. geophys. Res. , vol.5 B , Issue.3
    • Zhuang, J.1    Ogata, Y.2    Vere-Jones, D.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.