Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

Climatic Change

Volumn 112, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 299-323

  Benson, Barbara J ^a   Magnuson, John J ^a   Jensen, Olaf P ^b   Card, Virginia M ^c   Hodgkins, Glenn ^d   Korhonen, Johanna ^e   Livingstone, David M ^f   Stewart, Kenton M ^g   Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A ^h,i   Granin, Nick G ^j  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b RUTGERS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c METROPOLITAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^e FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE   (Finland)

^f SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

^g UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

^h UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

ⁱ SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

^j LIMNOLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Russian Federation)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA SETS; EXTREME EVENTS; IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT; LONG-TERM TREND; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; STANDARD DEVIATION; TIME-PERIODS; WARMER CONDITIONS;

BIOLOGY; LAKES; PHENOLS; STATISTICS;

ICE;

DATA SET; EXTREME EVENT; FREEZING; ICE BREAKUP; ICE COVER; LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT; LONG-TERM CHANGE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PROBABILITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; TREND ANALYSIS;

EID: 84859211973     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0212-8     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Adrian R, Hintze T (2000) Effects of winter air temperature on the ice phenology of the Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany). Verh Internat Verein Limnol 27: 2808-2811.
2. Anderson WL, Robertson DM, Magnuson JJ (1996) Evidence of recent warming and El Niño-related variations in ice breakup of Wisconsin lakes. Limnol Oceanogr 41: 815-821.
3. Assel RA, Robertson DM (1995) Changes in winter air temperature near Lake Michigan, 1851-1993, as determined from regional lake-ice records. Limnol Oceanogr 40: 165-176.
4. Ballester J, Rodó X, Giorgi F (2009) Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0641-5.
5. Benson BJ, Magnuson JJ, Jacob RL, Fuenger SL (2000) Response of lake ice breakup in the Northern Hemisphere to the 1976 interdecadal shift in the North Pacific. Verh Internat Verein Limnol 27: 2770-2774.
6. Bonsal BR, Prowse TD, Duguay CR, Lacroix MP (2006) Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on freshwater-ice break/freeze-up dates over Canada. J Hydrol 330: 340-353.
7. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111: D12106. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006548.
8. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9: 311-318.
9. Changnon SA (2007) Catastrophic winter storms: an escalating problem. Clim Chang 84: 131-139.
10. Duguay CR, Prowse TD, Bonsal BR, Brown RD, Lacroix MP, Ménard P (2006) Recent trends in Canadian lake ice cover. Hydrol Process 20: 781-801.
11. Easterling DR, Evans JL, Groisman PYA, Karl TR, Kunkel KE, Ambenje P (2000) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81: 417-425.
12. Epstein PR, McCarthy JJ (2004) Assessing climate stability. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 12: 1863-1870.
13. Fang X, Stefan HG (2009) Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous United States under past and future climate scenarios. Limnol Oceanogr 54: 2359-2370.
14. Futter MN (2003) Patterns and trends in southern Ontario lake ice phenology. Environ Monit Assess 88: 431-444.
15. Gao S, Stefan HG (1999) Multiple linear regression for lake ice and lake temperature characteristics. J Cold Reg Eng 13: 59-77.
16. Gao S, Stefan HG (2004) Potential climate change effects on ice covers of five freshwater lakes. J Hydrol Eng 9: 226-234.
17. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, Lea DW, Medina-Elizade M (2006) Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103: 14288-14293.
18. Helland IP, Finstad AG, Forseth T, Hesthagen T, Ugedal O (2011) Ice-cover effects on competitive interactions between two fish species. J Anim Ecol 80: 539-547.
19. Hendricks Franssen HJ, Scherrer SC (2008) Freezing of lakes on the Swiss plateau in the period 1901-2006. Int J Climatol 28: 421-433.
20. Hodgkins GA, James IC, Huntington TG (2002) Historical changes in lake ice-out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850-2000. Int J Climatol 22: 1819-1827.
21. Holopainen J, Helama S, Kajander JM, Korhonen J, Launiainen J, Nevanlinna H, Reissell A, Salonen V-P (2009) A multiproxy reconstruction of spring temperatures in south-west Finland since 1750. Clim Chang 92: 213-233.
22. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
23. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
24. Jensen OP (2008) Losing winter as we knew it. Lakeline (Summer): 13-16.
25. Jensen OP, Benson BJ, Magnuson JJ, Card VM, Futter MN, Soranno PA, Stewart KM (2007) Spatial analysis of ice phenology trends across the Laurentian Great Lakes region during a recent warming period. Limnol Oceanogr 52: 2013-2026.
26. Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Rev Geophys 37: 173-199.
27. Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Clim Chang 21: 289-302.
28. Kling GW, Hayhoe K, Johnson LB, Magnuson JJ, Polasky S, Robinson SK, Shuter BJ, Wander MM, Wuebbles DJ, Zak DR, Lindroth RL, Moser SC, Wilson ML (2003) Confronting climate change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our communities and ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and the Ecological Society of America, Washington, DC.
29. Korhonen J (2006) Long-term changes in lake ice cover in Finland. Nord Hydrol 37: 347-363.
30. Kratz TK, Hayden BP, Benson BJ, Chang WYB (2000) Patterns in the interannual variability of lake freeze and thaw dates. Verh Internat Verein Limnol 27: 2796-2799.
31. Kunkel KE, Pielke RA Jr, Changnon SA (1999) Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80: 1077-1098.
32. Kuusisto E (1987) An analysis of the longest ice observation series made on Finnish lakes. Aqua Fenn 17: 123-132.
33. Likens GE (2000) A long-term record of ice cover for Mirror Lake, New Hampshire: effects of global warming? Verh Internat Verein Limnol 27: 2765-2769.
34. Livingstone DM (1997) Break-up dates of alpine lakes as proxy data for local and regional mean surface air temperatures. Clim Chang 37: 407-439.
35. Livingstone DM (1999) Ice break-up on southern Lake Baikal and its relationship to local and regional air temperatures in Siberia and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnol Oceanogr 44: 1486-1497.
36. Livingstone DM (2000) Large-scale climatic forcing detected in historical observations of lake ice break-up. Verh Internat Verein Limnol 27: 2775-2783.
37. Livingstone DM, Adrian R (2009) Modeling the duration of intermittent ice cover on a lake for climate-change studies. Limnol Oceanogr 54: 1709-1722.
38. Livingstone DM, Adrian R, Blenckner T, George DG, Weyhenmeyer GA (2010) Lake ice phenology In: George DG (ed) The impact of climate change on European lakes, Ch. 4, p. 51-61. Aquatic Ecology Series 4, Springer.
39. Lodge DM (1993) Species invasions and deletions: community effects and responses to climate and habitat change. In: Kareiva PM, Kingsolver JG, Huey RB (eds) Biotic interactions and global change. Sinaauer Associates Inc, Sunderland, Mass, pp 367-387.
40. Magnuson JJ, Paszkowski CA, Rahel FJ, Tonn WM (1989) Fish ecology in severe environments of small isolated lakes in northern Wisconsin. In: Sharatz RR, Gibbons JW (eds) Freshwater Wetlands and Wildlife: Conf-8603101. DOE Symposium Series No. 61. USDOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, pp 487-515.
41. Magnuson JJ (1990) Long-term ecological research and the invisible present. BioScience 40: 495-501.
42. Magnuson JJ, Webster KE, Assel RA, Bowser CJ, Dillon PJ, Eaton JG, Evans HE, Fee EJ, Hall RI, Mortsch LR, Schindler DW, Quinn FH (1997) Potential effects of climate change on aquatic systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield region. Hydrol Process 11: 825-872.
43. Magnuson JJ, Robertson DM, Benson BJ, Wynne RH, Livingstone DM, Arai T, Assel RA, Barry RG, Card V, Kuusisto E, Granin NG, Prowse TD, Stewart KM, Vuglinski VS (2000) Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Science 289: 1743-1746, Errata (2001) Science: 1291-1254.
44. Magnuson JJ, Benson BJ, Kratz TK (2004) Patterns of coherent dynamics within and between lake districts at local to intercontinental scales. Boreal Environ Res 9: 359-369.
45. Magnuson JJ, Benson BJ, Jensen OP, Clark TB, Card V, Futter MN, Soranno PA, Stewart KM (2005) Persistence of coherence of ice-off dates for inland lakes across the Laurentian Great Lakes region. Verh Internat Verein Limnol 29: 521-527.
46. Magnuson JJ, Kratz TK, Benson BJ (2006) Long-term dynamics of lakes in the landscape: long-term ecological research on North Temperate Lakes. Oxford University Press, Oxford; New York.
47. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305: 994-997.
48. Michaels PJ, Balling RC Jr, Vose RS, Knappenberger PC (1998) Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements. Clim Res 10: 27-33.
49. Namdar Ghanbari R, Bravo HR, Magnuson JJ, Hyzer WG, Benson BJ (2009) Coherence between lake ice cover, local climate and teleconnections (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin). J Hydrol 374: 282-293.
50. Palecki MA, Barry RG (1986) Freeze-up and break-up of lakes as an index of temperature changes during the transition seasons: a case study for Finland. J Clim Appl Meteorol 25: 893-902.
51. Peel MC, McMahon TA (2006) Recent frequency component changes in interannual climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 33. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL025670.
52. Robertson DM, Ragotzskie RA, Magnuson JJ (1992) Lake ice records used to detect historical and future climatic change. Clim Chang 21: 407-427.
53. Robertson DM, Wynne RH, Chang WYB (2000) Influence of El Niño on lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere from 1900 to 1995. Verh Internat Verein Limnol 27: 2784-2788.
54. Ruosteenoja K (1986) The date of break-up of lake ice as a climatic index. Geophys 22: 89-99.
55. Sagarin R (2001) False estimates of the advance of spring. Nature 414: 600.
56. Scherrer SC, Appenzeller C, Liniger MA, Schär C (2005) European temperature distribution changes in observations and climate change scenarios. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL024108.
57. Schindler DW, Beaty KG, Fee EJ, Cruikshank DR, DeBruyn ER, Findley DL, Linsey GA, Shearer JA, Stainton MP, Turner MA (1990) Effects of climatic warming on lakes of the central boreal forest. Science 250: 967-970.
58. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's. J Am Stat Assoc 63: 1379-1389.
59. Theil H (1950) A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis I-III. Nederl Akad Wetensch Proc 53: 386-392, 521-525 and 1397-1412.
60. Tonn WM, Magnuson JJ (1982) Patterns in the species composition and richness of fish assemblages in northern Wisconsin lakes. Ecol 63: 1149-1166.
61. Trenberth KE, Ambenje P, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Tank AK, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci M, Soden B, Zhai P et al (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climatic change. In: Solomon et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 234-335.
62. Vavrus SJ, Wynne RH, Foley JA (1996) Measuring the sensitivity of southern Wisconsin lake ice to climate variations and lake depth using a numerical model. Limnol Oceanogr 41: 822-831.
63. Weyhenmeyer GA, Meili M, Livingstone DM (2004) Nonlinear temperature response of lake ice breakup. Geophys Res Lett 31: L07203. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL019530.
64. Weyhenmeyer GA, Meili M, Livingstone DM (2005) Systematic differences in the trend towards earlier ice-out on Swedish lakes along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Verh Internat Verein Limnol 29: 257-260.
65. Weyhenmeyer GA, Livingstone DM, Meili M, Jensen O, Benson B, Magnuson JJ (2011) Large geographical differences in the sensitivity of ice-covered lakes and rivers in the Northern Hemisphere to temperature changes. Glob Chang Biol 17: 268-275.
66. Williams G, Layman KL, Stefan HG (2004) Dependence of lake ice covers on climatic, geographic and bathymetric variables. Cold Reg Sci Technol 40: 145-164.
67. Wynne RH, Lillesand TM (1993) Satellite observation of lake ice as a climate indicator: initial results from statewide monitoring in Wisconsin. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 59: 1023-1031.