Modeling the duration of intermittent ice cover on a lake for climate-change studies

Limnology and Oceanography

Volumn 54, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 1709-1722

  Livingstone, David M ^a   Adrian, Rita ^b  

^a SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

^b LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE OF FRESHWATER ECOLOGY AND INLAND FISHERIES   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; ICE COVER; LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT; PROBABILITY;

BERLIN; CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; GERMANY; MUGGELSEE;

EID: 67949086525     PISSN: 00243590     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4319/lo.2009.54.5.1709     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. ADRIAN, R., R. DENEKE, U. MISCHKE, R. STELLMACHER, AND P. LEDERER. 1995. A long-term study of Heiligensee (1975-1992). Evidence for effects of climate change on the dynamics of eutrophic lake ecosystems. Arch. Hydrobiol. 133: 315-337.
2. -, AND T. HINTZE. 2000. Effects of winter air temperature on the ice phenology of the Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany). Verh. Int. Verein. Limnol. 27: 2808-2811.
3. -, N. WALZ, T. HINTZE, S. HOEG, AND R. RUSCHE. 1999. Effects of ice duration on plankton succession during spring in a shallow polymictic lake. Freshw. Biol. 41: 621-632.
4. -, S. WILHELM, AND D. GERTEN. 2006. Life-history traits of lake plankton species may govern their phenological response to climate warming. Glob. Change Biol. 12: 652-661.
5. ARNET, X. 1897. The freezing of the lakes of central Switzerland. Mitt, naturf. Ges. Luzern 1895/96: 61-177. [In German.]
6. ASSEL, R. A. 1976. Great Lakes ice thickness prediction. J. Great Lakes Res. 2: 248-255.
7. BARICA, J., AND J. A. MATHIAS. 1979. Oxygen depletion and winter kill risks in small prairie lakes under extended ice cover. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 36: 980-986.
8. BILELLO, M. A. 1961. Formation, growth and decay of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic archipelago. Arctic 14: 2-25.
9. -, 1964. Methods for predicting river and lake ice formation. J. Appl. Meteorol. 3: 38-44.
10. CÁCERES, C. E. 1998. Interspecific variation in the abundance, production, and emergence of Daphnia diapausing eggs. Ecology 79: 1699-1710.
11. CHRISTENSEN, J. H., AND OTHERS. 2007. Regional climate projections, p. 847-940. In S. Solomon and others [eds.], Climate change 2007 - the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press.
12. CUBASCH, U., AND OTHERS. 2001. Projections of future climate change, p. 525-582. In J. T. Houghton and others [eds.], Climate change 2001. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press.
13. DRIESCHER, E., H. BEHRENDT, G. SCHELLENBERGER, AND R. STELLMACHER. 1993. Lake Müggelsee and its environment-natural conditions and anthropogenic impacts. Int. Rev. Ges. Hydrobiol. 78: 327-343.
14. DUGUAY, C. R., G. M. FLATO, M. O. JEFFRIES, P. MENARD, K. MORRIS, AND W. R. ROUSE. 2003. Ice-cover variability on shallow lakes at high latitudes: Model simulations and observations. Hydrol. Process. 17: 3465-3483.
15. EDINGER, J. E., D. W. DUTTWEILER, AND J. C. GEYER. 1968. The response of water temperatures to meteorological conditions. Water Resour. Res. 4: 1137-1143.
16. GAUTSCHI, W. 1970. Error function and Fresnel integrals, p. 297-329. In W. Abramowitz and I. A. Stegun [eds.], Handbook of mathematical functions. Dover.
17. GERTEN, D., AND R. ADRIAN. 2000. Climate-driven changes in spring plankton dynamics and the sensitivity of shallow polymictic lakes to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnol. Oceanogr. 45: 1058-1066.
18. GREENBANK, J. T. 1945. Limnological conditions in ice-covered lakes, especially as related to winter-kill of fish. Ecol. Monogr. 15: 343-392.
19. GU, R., AND H. G. STEFAN. 1990. Year-round temperature simulation of cold climate lakes. Cold Reg. Sci. Tech. 18: 1975-1992).
20. GUTTINGER, H. 1980. The use of a Fourier transformation to adjust for seasonal fluctuations in the physico-chemical characterization of rivers. Schweiz. Z. Hydrol. 42: 309-321. [In German.]
21. HAIRSTON, N. G., JR. 1998. Time travelers: What's timely in diapause research? Arch. Hydrobiol. Spec. Iss. Adv. Limnol. 52: 1-15.
22. IMBODEN, D. M., AND A. WÜEST. 1995. Mixing mechanisms in lakes, p. 83-138. In A. Lerman, D. M. Imboden and J. R. Gat [eds.], Physics and chemistry of lakes, 2nd ed. Springer.
23. LEPPÄRANTA, M. 1991. A review of analytical models of sea-ice growth. Atmos. Ocean. 31: 123-138.
24. LIVINGSTONE, D. M. 1993. Lake oxygenation: Application of a one-box model with ice cover. Int. Rev. Ges. Hydrobiol. 78: 465-480.
25. -, 1997. Break-up dates of alpine lakes as proxy data for local and regional mean surface air temperatures. Clim. Change 37: 407-439.
26. -, AND D. M. IMBODEN. 1989. Annual heat balance and equilibrium temperature of Lake Aegeri, Switzerland. Aquat. Sci. 51: 351-369.
27. MAGNUSON, J. J., AND OTHERS. 2000. Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Science 289: 1743-1746.
28. and Errata 2001, Science 291: 254.
29. MEEHL, G A., AND OTHERS. 2007. Global climate projections. p. 747-845. In S. Solomon and others [eds.], Climate change 2007 - the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press.
30. NAKIĆENOVIĆ, N. AND R. SWART [EDS.]. 2000. Special report on emissions scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press.
31. PALECKI, M. A., AND R. G. BARRY. 1986. Freeze-up and break-up of lakes as an index of temperature changes during the transition seasons: A case study for Finland. J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 25: 893-902.
32. RÄISÄNEN, J., U. HANSSON, A. ULLERSTIG, R. DÖSCHER, L. P. GRAHAM, C. JONES, H. E. M. MEIER, P. SAMUELSSON, AND U. WILLÉN. 2004. European climate in the late twenty-first century: Regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Clim. Dyn. 22: 13-31.
33. SALORANTA, T. M., AND T. ANDERSEN. 2007. MyLake - a multi-year lake simulation model code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations. Ecol. Model. 207: 45-60.
34. STEFAN, J. 1890. On the theory of ice formation, with particular regard to ice formation in the polar sea. Sitz. Ber. Kais. Akad. Wiss. Wien 98: 965-983. [In German.]
35. SWEERS, H. H. 1976. A nomogram to estimate the heat-exchange coefficient at the air-water interface as a function of wind speed and temperature; a critical survey of some literature. J. Hydrol. 30: 375-401.
36. VAVRUS, S. J., R. H. WYNNE, AND J. A. FOLEY. 1996. Measuring the sensitivity of southern Wisconsin lake ice to climate variations and lake depth using a numerical model. Limnol. Oceanogr. 41: 822-831.
37. WEYHENMEYER, G. A., T. BLENCKNER, AND K. PETTERSSON. 1999. Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnol. Oceanogr. 44: 1788-1792.
38. -, M. MEILI, AND D. M. LIVINGSTONE. 2004. Nonlinear temperature response of lake ice breakup. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L07203, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019530.
39. WILLIAMS, G P. 1965. Correlating freeze-up and break-up with weather conditions. Can. Geotech. J. 2: 313-326.
40. WILLIAMS, S. G., AND H. G STEFAN. 2006. Modeling of lake ice characteristics in North America using climate, geography, and lake bathymetry. J. Cold Reg. Eng. 20: 140-167.