Audience costs: An historical analysis

Security Studies

Volumn 21, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 3-42

  Trachtenberg, Marc ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 84858300388     PISSN: 09636412     EISSN: 15561852     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09636412.2012.650590     Document Type: Article

References (208)

1. James Fearon, Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes, American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (September 1994): 578, 586, 579.
2. James Fearon, Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes, American Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (September 1994) 579 (for the quotation), 577-578.
3. Alastair Smith, International Crises and Domestic Politics," American Political Science Review 92, no. 3 (September 1998): 623 (emphasis added).
4. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences," 577.
5. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences," 582.
6. James Fearon, "Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs," Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 1 (February 1997): 68-87.
7. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences," 577.
8. Kenneth Schultz, "Looking for Audience Costs," Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 1 (February 2001): 35.
9. Kenneth Schultz, "Looking for Audience Costs," Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 1 (February 2001):33.
10. Kenneth Schultz, "Looking for Audience Costs," Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, no. 1 (February 2001):53.
11. James Fearon, "Rationalist Explanations for War," International Organization 49, no. 3 (Summer 1995).
12. Fearon talks, for example, about why leaders "would want to be able to generate significant audience costs in international contests." Fearon, Domestic Political Audiences, 585
13. James Stone, The War Scare of 1875: Bismarck and Europe in the Mid-1870s (Stuttgart: Franz Steiner, 2010), 212-24.
14. For a general account
15. Stone, War Scare, 224-245.
16. This is basically Stone's argument.
17. Derby to Disraeli, 20 May 1875, in William Mony penny and George Buckle, The Life of Benjamin Disraeli, Earl of Beaconsfield (New York: Macmillan, 1929), 2:764.
18. Disraeli to Derby, 30 May 1875, ibid.; Lord Derby's 31 May 1875 speech in Parliament, Parliamentary Debates: House of Lords, series 3, vol. 224, col. 1098.
19. B.H. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 1870-1880 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1937);
20. R.W. Seton-Watson, Disraeli, Gladstone and the Eastern Question: A Study in Diplomacy and Party Politics (London: Macmillan, 1935);
21. David MacKenzie, "Russia's Balkan Policies under Alexander II, 1855-1881," in Imperial Russian Foreign Policy, ed. Hugh Ragsdale (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993);
22. Marvin Swartz, The Politics of British Foreign Policy in the Era of Disraeli and Gladstone (Houndmills, UK: Macmillan, 1985).
23. Seton-Watson, Eastern Question, 216-219.
24. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 374.
25. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans., 374, 380, 406.
26. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans., 389
27. Seton-Watson, Eastern Question, 364.
28. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 393.
29. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 374, 393-395.
30. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 396-397, 406.
31. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 197.
32. Disraeli to Layard, 11 October 1877, quoted in Seton-Watson, Eastern Question, 234 (emphasis in original text).
33. Shuvalov to Gorchakov, 29 and 30 March 1878, quoted in ibid., 378
34. Seton-Watson, Eastern estion, 456; Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 540; Swartz, Politics of British Foreign Policy, 94-96.
35. Seton-Watson, Eastern Question, 250, 298;
36. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 29-30, 321;
37. Swartz, Politics of British Foreign Policy, 48-49, 70-72.
38. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, esp. 472, 475
39. Seton-Watson, Eastern Question, 379, 397, 530-531, 535, 560-61.
40. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 425.
41. Seton-Watson, Eastern Question, 461-471;
42. Sumner, Russia and the Balkans, 554-556.
43. William Langer, The Diplomacy of Imperialism, vol. 1 (New York: Knopf, 1935), 52-54.
44. C.J. Lowe, The Reluctant Imperialists: British Foreign Policy 1878-1902 (London: Macmillan, 1967), 196-204, 377-378;
45. Ronald Robinson and John Gallagher, Africa and the Victorians: The Climax of Imperialism (Garden City, NY: Anchor Books, 1968), 254-273, 354 (for the quotation)
46. The two most important books on the British side of what was to become the Fashoda affair are the Robinson and Gallagher book just cited, a brilliant analysis, and G.N. Sanderson's more detailed study, England, Europe and the Upper Nile, 1882-1899 (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1965).
47. Pierre Guillen, L'Expansion 1881-1898 (Paris: Imprimerie Nationale, 1985), 397-425, 461-62.
48. For the French side of the Fashoda affair,
49. Roger Brown, Fashoda Reconsidered: The Impact of Domestic Politics on French Policy in Africa, 1893-1898 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1970);
50. Marc Michel, La Mission Marchand, 1895-1899 (Paris: Mouton, 1972);
51. C.M. Andrew and A.S. Kanya-Forstner, "Gabriel Hanotaux, the Colonial Party and the Fashoda Strategy," in European Imperialism and the Partition of Africa, ed. E.F. Penrose (London: Frank Cass, 1975).
52. Guillen, L'Expansion, 409;
53. Andrew and Kanya-Forstner, "Gabriel Hanotaux," 77.
54. Guillen, L'Expansion, 428-440, esp. 439;
55. Michel, Mission Marchand, 130-131, 135;
56. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 327.
57. Robinson and Gallagher, Africa and the Victorians, 367n.
58. Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 182, 186, 190.
59. Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 193.
60. Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 189.
61. Kenneth Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 186-87, 190, 195.
62. Robinson and Gallagher, Africa and the Victorians, 256, 373-374;
63. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 400.
64. For Salisbury's explanation for the publication of the Blue Book, see Courcel to Delcasse, 6October 1898, Documents Diplomatiques Francais (1871-1914), series 1, vol. 14, 633-35 (hereafter cited as DDF).
65. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 347.
66. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences," 586
67. Schultz, Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy, 177-180.
68. Guillen, L'Expansion, 403;
69. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 209;
70. Geoffray to Delcasśe, 29 September 1898, DDF 1:14:601-2; Courcel to Hanotaux, 27 March 1897, quoted in Michel, Mission Marchand, 133.
71. Brown, Fashoda Reconsidered, 73-74.
72. Guillen, L'Expansion, 462
73. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 361.
74. Andrew and Kanya-Forstner, "Gabriel Hanotaux," 66.
75. Brown, Fashoda Reconsidered, 104, 113, 116.
76. Courcel to Geoffray, 31 October 1898, DDF 1:14:743-44.
77. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 391;
78. Guillen, L'Expansion, 461-462;
79. A.S. Kanya-Forstner review of the Sanderson book, in the Historical Journal 9, no. 2 (1966): 254.
80. Fearon, "Domestic Political Audiences," 586.
81. Paul Kennedy, The Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 1860-1914 (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1980), chap. 13.
82. On these developments,
83. George Monger, The End of Isolation: British Foreign Policy, 1900-1907 (London: Thomas Nelson, 1963).
84. Norman Rich, Friedrich von Holstein: Politics and Diplomacy in the Era of Bismarckand Wilhelm II, vol. 2 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1965), 680.
85. Rich, Holstein, 2:678-745
86. for a very revealing analysis of German policy in the crisis.
87. Rich, Holstein. 708-710, 718, 722, 724, 726-28, 741.
88. Rich, Holstein esp. 738, 743-744.
89. Rich, Holstein., 740.
90. Jean-Claude Allain, Agadir 1911: Une crise impé erialiste en Europe pour la conquete du Maroc (Paris: Publications de la Sorbonne, 1976), 325.
91. Kiderlen to Bethmann, 17 July 1911, quoted in Emily Oncken, Panthersprung nach Agadir: Die deutsche Politik wAahrend der Zweiten Marokkokrise 1911 (DAusseldorf: Droste, 1981), 283. For the point that the German leadership wanted to avoid war and had simply adopted a bluff strategy, see ibid., 421.
92. Grey to Bertie, 20 July 1911, in British Documents on the Origins of the War, 1898-1914, vol. 7, ed. G.P. Gooch and Harold Temperley (London: HMSO, 1926-38), 382 (hereafter cited as BD).
93. Winston Churchill, The World Crisis, 1911-1914 (New York: Scribner's, 1930), 43.
94. Kiderlen to Metternich, 24 and 25 July 1911, Die Grosse Politik der Europaischen Kabinette 1871-1914, ed. Johannes Lepsius, Albrecht Mendelssohn Bartholdy, and Friedrich Thimme (Berlin: Deutsche Verlagsgesellschaft fAur Politik und Geschichte, 1922-1927), 40 vols. in 54, 29:211, 212; Grey to Goschen, 25 July 1911, BD 7:398.
95. Geoffrey Barraclough, From Agadir to Armageddon: Anatomy of a Crisis (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1982), 134; Oncken, Panthersprung, 292, 294-95, 421.
96. Wolfgang Mommsen, "Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in Wilhelmine Germany, 1897-1914," in Wolfgang Mommsen, Imperial Germany, 1867-1918: Politics, Culture and Society in an Authoritarian State (London: Arnold, 1995), 196.
97. Mommsen's view is probably too extreme.
98. Oncken, Panthersprung, 332-350, esp. 340.
99. Kennedy, Rise of the Anglo-German Antagonism, 447, 367;
100. Mommsen, Imperial Germany, 176.
101. Mommsen, Imperial Germany, 192-195
102. Klaus Hildebrand, Das vergangene Reich: Deutsche Aussenpolitik von Bismarck zu Hitler, 1871-1945 (Stuttgart: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt, 1995), 263.
103. It is in fact one of a handful of cases Fearon refers to in his article on the subject
104. Fearon P, "Domestic Political Audiences," 582.
105. M.L. Dockrill, "David Lloyd George and Foreign Policy before 1914," in Lloyd George: Twelve Essays, ed. A.J.P. Taylor (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1971), 19.
106. M.L. Dockrill, "British Policy during the Agadir Crisis of 1911," in British Foreign Policy under Sir Edward Grey, ed. F.H. Hinsley (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1977), 286. 79
107. McClellan, "Molotov Remembers," Cold War International History P oject (CWIHP) Bulletin 1 (Spring 1992): 17.
108. Edwin Wright, "Events relative to the Azerbaijan Issue-March 1946," 16 August 1965, quoted in US Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1946, 7:347.
109. W. Averell Harriman and Elie Abel, Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, 1941-1946 (NewYork: Random House, 1975), 550.
110. US Note to Soviet Government, 6 March 1946, Department of State Bulletin 14, no. 350 (17 March 1946), 435-36 (hereafter cited as DOSB);
111. Kuross A. Samii, "Truman against Stalin in Iran: A Tale of Three Messages," Middle Eastern Studies 23, no. 1 (January 1987): 98-103;
112. "U.S. Accuses Soviet of Violating Word by Staying in Iran," New York Times, 8 March 1946; "Russian Situation Moves toward Showdown," New York Times, 10 March 1946.
113. James Byrnes, "United States Military Strength-Its Relation to the United Nations and World Peace," in DOSB 14, no. 351 (24 March 1946), 483.
114. Samii, "Truman against Stalin," 100.
115. Georges Mamoulia, "Les crises turque et iranienne 1945-1947: L'apport des archives caucasiennes," Cahiers du monde russe 45, nos. 1-2 (January-June 2004): 281.
116. McClellan, "Molotov Remembers," Cold War International History Project(CWIHP) Bulletin 1 (Spring 1992): 17.
117. Edwin Wright, "Events relative to the Azerbaijan Issue-March 1946," 16 August 1965, quoted in US Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1946, 7:347.
118. W. Averell Harriman and Elie Abel, Special Envoy to Churchill and Stalin, 1941-1946 (New York: Random House, 1975), 550.
119. US Note to Soviet Government, 6 March 1946, Department of State Bulletin 14, no. 350 (17 March 1946), 435-36 (hereafter cited as DOSB)
120. Kuross A. Samii, "Truman against Stalin in Iran: A Tale of Three Messages," Middle Eastern Studies 23, no. 1 (January 1987): 98-103
121. "U.S. Accuses Soviet of Violating Word by Staying in Iran," New York Times, 8 March 1946; "Russian Situation Moves toward Showdown," New York Times, 10 March 1946.
122. James Byrnes, "United States Military Strength-Its Relation to the United Nations and World Peace," in DOSB 14, no. 351 (24 March 1946), 483.
123. Samii, "Truman against Stalin," 100.
124. Georges Mamoulia, "Les crises turque et iranienne 1945-1947: L'apport des archives caucasiennes," Cahiers du monde russe 45, nos. 1/2 (January-June 2004): 281.
125. Mikhail Narinsky, "Soviet Policy and the Berlin Blockade 1948" (paper presented at a conference in Essen, Germany, 1994), 13, and quoted in Elke Scherstjanoi, "Die Berlin-Blockade 1948/49 im sowjetischen Kalk̈ul," Zeitschrift f̈ur Geschichtswissenschaft 46, no. 6 (1998): 500n.
126. Mark, "War Scare of 1946," 386, esp. n. 8, 404.
127. Mark, "War Scare of 1946," 387, 401, 408.
128. Llewellyn Thompson to Dunn, 3 February 1945, FRUS 1945, 5:814; Harriman to Secretary of State, 21 August 1944, FRUS 1944, 4:1183.
129. Stalin-Hopkins meetings, 26 and 27 May 1945, FRUS: The Conference of Berlin (The Potsdam Conference) 1945, 1:26-28, 32 (for the quotation), 37 (for the apology).
130. Robert Divine, "The Cold War and the Election of 1948," Journal of American History 59, no. 1 (June 1972): 93.
131. Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace: The Making of the European Settlement, 1945-1963 (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999), 87, 90.
132. Scherstjanoi, "Berlin-Blockade," 499, summarizes some conclusions William Stivers reached in an unpublished paper dealing with this issue presented at a conference in Berlin, 1998.
133. Scherstjanoi, "Berlin-Blockade," 500.
134. Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, 231-237.
135. The discussion in this section is based largely on chapters seven and eight in that book.
136. Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace chap. 5 and esp. 261-262.
137. Oleg Troyanovsky, "The Making of Soviet Foreign Policy," in Nikita Khrushchev, ed. William Taubman, Sergei Khrushchev, and Abbott Gleason (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000), 237.
138. Anatoly Dobrynin, In Confidence: Moscow's Ambassador to America's Six Cold War Presidents (1962-1986) (New York: Random House, 1995), 45.
139. A Washington Post editorial of 11 October 1961 captured what seems to have been the prevailing view: "President Kennedy, in his TV report to the Nation last July, warned that 'We cannot negotiate with those who say "what's mine is mine, what's yours is negotiable."' That is, nonetheless, precisely what.
140. Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko was saying in London Tuesday. If the President now stood on his July position, he would be justified; but the search for some balancing adjustments and concessions in Berlin itself, or within the larger framework of a European settlement must go on, no matter how difficult and discouraging."
141. Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, 325-51. For the point about the nuclear balance, see ibid., 351, 353. On the point about postponing the crisis until after the elections,
142. Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, Khrushchev's Cold War (New York: Norton, 2006), 458, 462.
143. Quotation from Troyanovsky's account, in
144. William Taubman, Khrushchev: The Man and His Era (New York: Norton, 2003), 575.
145. Marc Trachtenberg, History and Strategy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), 194-195, 211-214;
146. Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, 256-263.
147. Eisenhower meeting with Dulles and other top officials, 29 January 1959, FRUS 1958-60, 8:303. Kennedy's and McGeorge Bundy's comments, in meeting of Kennedy with his main advisors, 16 October 1962, quoted in Sheldon Stern, Averting "The Final Failure":
148. John F. Kennedy and the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis Meetings (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), 80, 82.
149. On one important set of statements (and their hand-tying effect),
150. Jeremy Pressman, "September Statements, October Missiles, November Elections: Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy Making, and the Cuban Missile Crisis," Security Studies 10, no. 3 (Spring 2001).
151. Kennedy's remarks in an NSC meeting, 20 October 1962, FRUS 1961-63, 11:135.
152. Dobrynin, In Confidence, 64.
153. Khrushchev at meeting with Warsaw Pact leaders, 3-5 August 1961, quoted in
154. Vladislav Zubok, A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2007), 140.
155. Pressman, "September Statements," 86.
156. Jonathan Haslam, Russia's Cold War: From the October Revolution to the Fall of the Wall (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2011), 188-189.
157. Zubok, Failed Empire, 143;
158. Taubman, Khrushchev, 541-542
159. Troyanovsky, "Making of Soviet Foreign Policy," 235-236;
160. Dobrynin, In Confidence, 64, 79;
161. Haslam, Russia's Cold War, 201-202.
162. On the role of intelligence, for 1961, see Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev's Cold War, 373-74; for 1962, see Haslam, Russia's Cold War, 209.
163. Taubman, Khrushchev, 556.
164. Roger Brown, Fashoda Reconsidered, stresses the link between the domestic and international crisis. For the British ambassador's report, see ibid., 99-100. For the fear of a coup,
165. Robinson and Gallagher, Africa and the Victorians, 374-375.
166. Andrew and Kanya-Forstner, "Hanotaux," 93;
167. Michel, Mission Marchand, 224.
168. Brown, Fashoda Reconsidered, 53.
169. Christopher Andrew, TheophileDelcasśe and theMaking of the Entente Cordiale: A Reappraisal of French Foreign Policy 1898-1905 (London: Macmillan, 1968), 41, 90, 91;.
170. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 353.
171. Michel, Mission Marchand, 57-58;
172. Guillen, L'Expansion, 462;
173. Sanderson, Upper Nile, 391.
174. Jean-Baptiste Duroselle, France and the Nazi Threat: The Collapse of French Diplomacy, 1932-1939 (New York: Enigma Books, 2004), 130.
175. Jean-Baptiste Duroselle, "Les milieux gouvernementaux français en face du probleme allemande en 1936," in Jean-Baptiste Duroselle, Itineraires: Idees, hommes et nations d'Occident (Paris: Publications de la Sorbonne, 1991), 315.
176. R.A.C. Parker, Chamberlain and Appeasement: British Policy and the Coming of the Second World War (New York: St. Martin's, 1993), 65.
177. Stephen Schuker's extraordinary article, "France and the Remilitarization of the Rhineland, 1936," French Historical Studies 14, no. 3 (Spring 1986): esp. 316-317, 329.
178. Duroselle, France and the Nazi Threat, chap. 5, esp. 128-131.
179. Duroselle, France and the Nazi Threat, 280.
180. Parker, Chamberlain, 139.
181. Parker, Chamberlain, 167-173;
182. Duroselle, France and the Nazi Threat, 287-291;
183. Anthony Adamthwaite, France and the Coming of the Second World War, 1936-1939 (London: Frank Cass, 1977), 217-218.
184. Richard Overy, "Germany and the Munich Crisis: A Mutilated Victory?" Diplomacy and Statecraft 10, nos. 2-3 (1999).
185. Parker, Chamberlain, 167, 174, 186-187.
186. Parker, Chamberlain., 157, 174-75;
187. Cockett, Twilight of Truth, 82.
188. Gerhard Weinberg, "Munich after 50 Years," Foreign Affairs 67, no. 1 (Fall 1988): 171-172;
189. Overy, "Germany and the Munich Crisis," 205-210.
190. Sidney Aster, 1939: The Making of the Second World War (London: Andre Deutsch, 1973), 24.
191. Franklin Gannon, The British Press and Germany, 1936-1939 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1971), 256-257.
192. R.A.C. Parker, Churchill and Appeasement (London: Macmillan, 2000), 263-223.
193. Yvon Lacaze, L'opinion publique française et la crise de Munich (Berne: Peter Lang, 1991), 609;
194. Adamthwaite, France, 315.
195. Lacaze, Crise de Munich, 526.
196. Troyanovsky, "Making of Soviet Foreign Policy," 217. On 1964,
197. Pzaul Du Quenoy, "The Role of Foreign Affairs in the Fall of Nikita Khrushchev in October 1964," International History Review 25, no. 2 (June 2003).
198. Parker, Chamberlain Jessica Weeks, Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve," International Organization 62 (Winter 2008): 35.
199. The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1960), 4.
200. Jack Snyder and Erica Borghard, "The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound," American Political Science Review 105, no. 3 (August 2011);
201. Alexander Downes and Todd Sechser, "Democracies and the Credibility of Coercive Threats," forthcoming in International Organization.
202. Snyder and Borghard, "The Cost of Empty Threats."
203. Shuhei Kurizaki, "Efficient Secrecy: Public versus Private Threats in Crisis Diplomacy," American Political Science Review 101, no. 3 (August 2007): 554.
204. Raymond Sontag's remarkable article, "The Last Months of Peace, 1939," Foreign Affairs 35, no. 3 (April 1957): 507, 524.
205. Robert Trager, "Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy: How Communication Matters," American Political Science Review 104, no. 2 (May 2010): esp. 349, n. 12.
206. Robert Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970), 2, n. 18, 70-83.
207. Robert Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press), 1970. 26.
208. Robert Jervis, The Logic of Images in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press), 1970., 18-19, 35.