Comparing different calibration methods (WA/WA-PLS regression and Bayesian modelling) and different-sized calibration sets in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction

Holocene

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 413-424

  Salonen, J Sakari ^a   Ilvonen, Liisa ^b   Seppä, Heikki ^a   Holmström, Lasse ^b   Telford, Richard J ^c   Gaidamavičius, Andrejus ^d   Stančikaite, Migle ^d   Subetto, Dmitry ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OULU   (Finland)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

^d VILNIUS UNIVERSITY   (Lithuania)

^e HERZEN STATE PEDAGOGICAL UNIVERSITY OF RUSSIA   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

calibration set size; Estonia; Lithuania; pollen; Russia; summer temperature

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CALIBRATION; HOLOCENE; PALEOCLIMATE; PALEOTEMPERATURE; PALYNOLOGY; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; RECONSTRUCTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; TRANSFER FUNCTION;

ESTONIA; LITHUANIA; RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 84858264322     PISSN: 09596836     EISSN: 14770911     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0959683611425548     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Andreev AA,Klimanov VA.Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstruction from Arctic Russia.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2000;24:81-91.
2. Andreev AA,Tarasov PE,Ilyashuk BP,Ilyashuk EA,Cremer H,Hermichen W-D, et al.Holocene environmental history recorded in Lake Lyadhej-To sediments, Polar Urals, Russia.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 2005;223:181-203.
3. Banerjee S,Carlin B,Gelfand AHierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data. Boca Raton: Chapman and Hall; 2004:.
4. Barber KE,Langdon PG.What drives the peat-based palaeoclimate record? A critical test using multi-proxy climate records from northern Britain.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2007;26:3318-3327.
5. Bennion H,Wunsam S,Schmidt R.The validation of diatom-phosphorus transfer functions: An example from Mondsee, Austria.Freshwater Biology. 1995;34:271-283.
6. BhattacharyaS (2004) Importance Resampling MCMC: A methodology for cross-validation in inverse problems and its applications in model assessment. PhD thesis, Trinity College Dublin.
7. Birks HJB.Numerical tools in quantitative palaeolimnology - Progress, potentialities, and problems.Journal of Paleolimnology. 1998;20:301-332.
8. Birks HJB (2003) Quantitative palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from Holocene biological data. In: Mackay A, Battarbee R, Birks J and Oldfield F (eds) Global Change in the Holocene. London: Arnold, 107-123.
9. Birks HH and Birks HJB (2003) Reconstructing Holocene climates from pollen and plant macrofossils. In: Mackay A, Battarbee R, Birks J and Oldfield F (eds) Global Change in the Holocene. London: Arnold, 342-357.
10. Birks HJB,Seppä H.Pollen-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary climate in Europe - progress, problems and pitfalls.Acta Palaeobotanica. 2004;44:317-334.
11. Birks HJB,Heiri O,Seppä H,Bjune AE.Strengths and weaknesses of quantitative climate reconstructions based on late-Quaternary biological proxies.The Open Ecology Journal. 2010;3:68-110.
12. Birks HJB,Line JM,Juggins S,Stevenson AC,ter Braak CJF.Diatoms and pH reconstruction.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 1990;327:263-278.
13. Bjune AE,Birks HJB,Peglar SM,Odland A.Developing a modern pollen-climate calibration data set for Norway.Boreas. 2010;39:674-688.
14. Bordon A,Peyron O,Lézine A-M,Brewer S,Fouache E.Pollen-inferred Late-Glacial and Holocene climate in southern Balkans (Lake Maliq).Quaternary International. 2009;200:19-30.
15. Cheddadi R,Kamakowa K,Guiot J,de Beauliau J-L,Reille M,Andrieu V,Granoszewski W, et al.Was the climate of the Eemian stable? A quantitative climate reconstruction from seven European pollen records.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 1998;143:73-85.
16. Daly C.Guidelines for assessing the suitability of spatial climate data sets.International Journal of Climatology. 2006;26:707-721.
17. Ellison AM.An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making.Ecological Applications. 1996;6:1036-1046.
18. Erästö P,Holmström L.Selection of prior distributions and multiscale analysis in Bayesian temperature reconstructions based on fossil assemblages.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2006;36:69-80.
19. Euskirchen ES,McGuire AD,Chapin FS,Yi S,Thompson CC.Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: Implications for climate feedbacks.Ecological Applications. 2009;19:1022-1043.
20. Fægri K,Iversen JTextbook of Pollen Analysis. Chichester: Wiley; 1989:.
21. Feurdean A,Klotz S,Mosbrugger V,Wohlfarth B.Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene climate variability in NW Romania.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 2008;260:494-504.
22. Finsinger W,Heiri O,Valsecchi V,Tinner W,Lotter AF.Modern pollen assemblages as climate indicators in southern Europe.Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2007;16:567-582.
23. Gachet S,Brewer SS,Cheddadi R,Davis B,Gritti E,Guiot J.A probabilistic approach to the use of pollen indicators for plant attributes and biomes: An application to European vegetation at 0 and 6 ka.Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2003;12:103-118.
24. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS and Rubin DB (2004) Bayesian Data Analysis, 2nd Edition. Chapman & Hall/CRC Text in Statistical Science.
25. Gorczynski L.Sur le calcul du degré du continentalisme et son application dans la climatologie.Geografiska Annaler. 1920;2:324-331.
26. Gorczyński L.The calculation of the degree of continentality.Monthly Weather Review. 1922;7:370.
27. Goring S,Pellatt MG,Lacourse T,Walker IR,Mathewes RW.A new methodology for reconstructing climate and vegetation from modern pollen assemblages: An example from British Columbia.Journal of Biogeography. 2009;36:626-638.
28. 2 conditions: Application to glacial climate in the Mediterranean region.Ecological Modelling. 2000;127:119-140.
29. Haslett J,Whiley M,Bhattacharya S,Mitchell F,Allen J,Huntley B, et al.Bayesian paleoclimate reconstruction.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 2006;169:395-438.
30. Heinrichs ML,Walker IR,Mathewes RW.Chironomid-based paleosalinity records in southern British Columbia, Canada: A comparison of transfer functions.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2001;26:147-159.
31. Hijmans RJ,Cameron SE,Parra JL,Jones PG,Jarvis AJ.Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.International Journal of Climatology. 2005;25:1965-1978.
32. Hinzman LD,Bettez ND,Bolton WR, et al.Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions.Climatic Change. 2004;72:251-298.
33. Holden P,Mackay A,Simpson G.A Bayesian palaeoenvironmental transfer function model for acidified lakes.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2008;39:551-566.
34. Jackson ST,Betancourt JL,Booth RK,Gray ST.Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2009;106:19 685-19 692.
35. Jones VJ,Solovieva N,Self AE,McGowan S,Rosén P,Salonen JS, et al.The influence of Holocene tree-line advance and retreat on an arctic lake ecosystem; A multi-proxy study from Kharinei Lake, North Eastern European Russia.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2011;46:123-137.
36. Juggins SC2 Version 1.5 User Guide. Software for Ecological and Palaeoecological Data Analysis and Visualisation. Newcastle upon Tyne: Newcastle University; 2007:.
37. Khotinskiy NA (1984) Holocene vegetation history. In: Velichko AA (ed.) Late Quaternary Environments of the Soviet Union. London: Longman, 179-200.
38. Korhola A,Vasko K,Toivonen HTT,Olander H.Holocene temperature changes in northern Fennoscandia reconstructed from chironomids using Bayesian modelling.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2002;21:1841-1860.
39. Köster D,Racca JMJ,Pienitz R.Diatom-based inference models and reconstructions revisited: Methods and transformations.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2004;32:233-246.
40. Kriticos DJ,Leriche A.The effect of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models.Ecography. 2010;33:115-127.
41. Kühl N,Moschen R,Wagner S,Brewer S,Peyron O.A multiproxy record of late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: Implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen.Journal of Quaternary Science. 2010;25:675-688.
42. Kultti S,Oksanen P,Väliranta M.Holocene tree line, permafrost, and climate dynamics in the Nenets Region, East European Arctic.Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences. 2004;41:1141-1158.
43. Kultti S,Väliranta M,Sarmaja-Korjonen K,Solovieva N,Virtanen T,Kauppila T, et al.Palaeoecological evidence of changes in vegetation and climate during the Holocene in the pre-Polar Urals, northeast European Russia.Journal of Quaternary Science. 2003;18:503-520.
44. Legendre P.Spatial autocorrelation: Trouble or new paradigm?.Ecology. 1993;74:1659-1673.
45. Lotter AF,Birks HJB,Eicher U,Hofmann W,Schwander J,Wick L.Yougner Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 2000;159:349-361.
46. MacDonald GM,Velichko AA,Kremenetski CV,Borisova OK,Goleva AA,Andreev AA, et al.Holocene treeline history and climate change across northern Eurasia.Quaternary Research. 2000;53:302-311.
47. Moore PD,Webb JA,Collinson MEPollen Analysis. Oxford: Blackwell; 1991:.
48. Oksanen PO,Kuhry P,Alekseeva RN.Holocene development of the Rogovaya River peat plateau, European Russian Arctic.The Holocene. 2001;11:25-40.
49. Olson DM,Dinerstein E,Wikramanayake ED,Burgess ND,Powell GVN,Underwood EC, et al.Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: A new map of life on Earth.Bioscience. 2001;51:933-938.
50. Overpeck JT,Webb T,Prentice IC.Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra: Dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogs.Quaternary Research. 1985;23:87-108.
51. Paterson AM,Cumming BF,Dixit SS,Smol JP.The importance of model choice on pH inferences from scaled chrysophyte assemblages in North America.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2002;27:379-391.
52. Peterson AT,Nakazawa Y.Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling: An example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 2008;17:135-144.
53. Peyron O,Goring S,Dormoy I,Kotthoff U,Pross J,de Beaulieu J-L, et al.Holocene seasonality changes in the central Mediterranean region reconstructed from the pollen sequences of Lake Accesa (Italy) and Tenaghi Philippon (Greece).The Holocene. 2011;21:131-146.
54. Prentice IC.Multidimensional scaling as a research tool in Quaternary palynology: A review of theory and methods.Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology. 1980;31:71-104.
55. R Development Core Team (2009) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
56. RekacewiczP (1998) Ecosystems of Northwest Russia. Barentswatch Atlas, GRID-Arendal, United Nations Environment Programme. Accessed from http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/ecosystems_in_northwest_russia on 3 April 2009.
57. Robert CP,Casella GMonte Carlo Statistical Methods. New York: Springer-Verlag; 2004:.
58. Salonen JS,Seppä H,Väliranta M,Jones VJ,Self A,Heikkilä M, et al.The Holocene thermal maximum and late-Holocene cooling in the tundra of NE European Russia.Quaternary Research. 2011;75:501-511.
59. Sawada M,Viau AE,Vettoretti G,Peltier WR,Gajewski K.Comparison of North-American pollen-based temperature and global lake-status with CCCma and AGCM2 output at 6 ka.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2004;23:225-244.
60. Seppä H,Bennett KD.Quaternary pollen analysis: Recent progress in palaeoecology and palaeoclimatology.Progress in Physical Geography. 2003;27:548-589.
61. Seppä H,Birks HJB.July mean temperature and annual precipitation trends during the Holocene in the Fennoscandian tree-line area: Pollen-based climate reconstructions.The Holocene. 2001;11:527-537.
62. Seppä H,Birks HJB,Odland A,Poska A,Veski S.A modern pollen-climate calibration set from northern Europe: Developing and testing a tool for palaeoclimatological reconstructions.Journal of Biogeography. 2004;31:251-267.
63. SnowG (2008) TeachingDemos: Demonstration for teaching and learning. R package version 2.7. Accessed from http://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/TeachingDemos/index.html on 27 June 2011.
64. St Jacques J-M,Cumming BF,Smol JP.A 900-year pollen-inferred temperature and effective moisture record from varved Lake Mina, west-central Minnesota, USA.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2008;27:781-796.
65. Telford RJ,Birks HJB.The secret assumption of transfer functions: Problems with spatial autocorrelation in evaluating model performance.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2005;24:2173-2179.
66. TelfordR (2011) palaeoSig: Significons. Accessed from http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/palaeoSig/index.html on 6 October 2011.
67. TelfordR (2011) palaeoSig: Significance tests for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. Accessed from http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/palaeoSig/index.html on 6 October 2011.
68. Telford RJ,Birks HJB.Evaluation of transfer functions in spatially structured environments.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2009;28:1309-1316.
69. Telford RJ,Birks HJB.A novel method for assessing the statistical significance of quantitative reconstructions inferred from biotic assemblages.Quaternary Science Reviews. 2011a;30:1272-1278.
70. Telford RJ,Birks HJB.Effect of uneven sampling along an environmental gradient on transfer-function performance.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2011b;46:99-106.
71. ter Braak CJF,Juggins S.Weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS): An improved method for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblages.Hydrobiologia. 1993;269/270:485-502.
72. Toivonen HTT,Mannila H,Korhola A,Olander H.Applying Bayesian statistics to organism-based environmental reconstruction.Ecological Applications. 2001;11:618-630.
73. Väliranta M,Kaakinen A,Kuhry P.Holocene climate and landscape evolution East of the Pechora Delta, East-European Russian Arctic.Quaternary Research. 2003;59:335-344.
74. Väliranta M,Kaakinen A,Kuhry P,Kultti S,Salonen JS,Seppä H.Scattered late-glacial and early-Holocene tree populations as dispersal nuclei for forest development in NE European Russia.Journal of Biogeography. 2011;38:922-932.
75. van der Voet H.Comparing the predictive accuracy of models using a simple randomization test.Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems. 1994;25:313-323.
76. Vasko K,Toivonen HT,Korhola A.A Bayesian multinomial Gaussian response model for organism-based environmental reconstruction.Journal of Paleolimnology. 2000;24:243-250.
77. Velle G,Kongshavn K,Birks HJB.Minimizing the edge-effect in environmental reconstructions by trimming the calibration set: Chironomid-inferred temperatures from Spitsbergen.The Holocene. 2011;21:417-430.
78. Xu Q,Li Y,Bunting MJ,Tian F,Liu J.The effects of training set selection on the relationship between pollen assemblages and climate parameters: Implications for reconstructing past climate.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 2010;289:123-133.