An introduction to bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making

Ecological Applications

Volumn 6, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 1036-1046

  Ellison, Aaron M ^a  

^a MOUNT HOLYOKE COLLEGE   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian inference; Decision analysis; Environmental decision making; Epistemology; Probability; Statistical errors; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CONIFEROPHYTA; MARTES PENNANTI;

BAYESIAN APPROACH; BAYESIAN INFERENCE; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; STATISTICS;

EID: 0030436475     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2269588     Document Type: Article

References (85)

1. Albert, J. H. 1993. Teaching Bayesian statistics using sampling methods and MINITAB. American Statistician 47: 182-191.
2. Arnqvist, G., and D. Wooster. 1995. Meta-analysis: synthesizing research findings in ecology and evolution. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 10:236-240.
3. Bayes, T. 1763. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 53:370-418.
4. Berger, J. O. 1985. Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
5. Berger, J. O., and D. A. Berry. 1988. Statistical analysis and the illusion of objectivity. American Scientist 76:159-165.
6. Berger, J. O., and M. Delampady. 1987. Testmg precse hypotheses (with comments and rejoinder). Statistical Science 2:317-352.
7. Berger, J. O., and T. Sellke. 1987. Testing a point null hypothesis: the irreconcilability of P values and evidence (with comments and rejoinder). Journal of the American Statistical Association 82:112-139.
8. Bernardo, J. M., and A. F. M. Smith. 1994 Bayesian theory. John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, USA.
9. Bourget, E., and M.-J. Fortin. 1995. A commentary on current approaches in the aquatic sciences. Hydrobiologia 300/301:1-16.
10. Box G. E. P., and G. C. Tiao. 1973. Bayesian inference m statistical analysis. Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts.
11. Carpenter, S. R. 1990. Large-scale perturbations: opportunities for innovation. Ecology 71:2038-2043.
12. Chechile R. A., and S. Carlisle, editors. 1991. Environmental decision making: a multidisciplinary peerspective. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York, New York, USA.
13. Chernoff, H., and L. E. Moses. 1959. Elementary decision theory. John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, USA.
14. Cook, P., and L. D. Broemeling. 1995. Bayesian statistics using Mathematica. American Statistician 49:70-76
15. Cox, D. R., and D. V. Hinkley. 1974. Theoretical statistics. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
16. Deely J. J., and W. J. Zimmer. 1969. Shorter confidence intervals using prior observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 64:378-386.
17. Dempster A. P., M. Schatzoff, and N. Wermuth. 1977. A simulation study of alternatives to ordinary least squares (with comments and rejoinder). Journal of the American Statistical Association 72:77-106.
18. Efron, B. 1978. Controversies in the foundations of statistics. American Mathematical Monthly 85:231-246.
19. _. 1986. Why isn't everyone a Bayesian? (with com ments and reply). American Statistician 40:1-11.
20. Elton, C. S. 1927. Animal ecology. Macmillan, New York, New York, USA
21. Ferguson, T.S. 1973. A Bayesian analysis of some nonparametric problems. Annals of Statistics 1:209-230
22. Geuse, S. 1993. Predictive inference: an mtroduction. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
23. Gelman, A., J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, and D. B. Rubin. 1993. Bayesian data analysis. Chapman and Hall, London, UK
24. Good I. J. 1965. The estimation of probababilities: an essay on modern Bayesian methods. M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
25. Gurevitch, J., and L. V. Hedges. 1993. Meta-analysis combining the results of independent experiments. Pages 378-398 in S. M. Schemer and J. Gurevitch, editors. Design and analysis of ecological experiments. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA. USA.
26. Gurenvitch, J., L. Morrow, A. Wallace, and J. Walsh. 1992, The meta-analysis of competition in field experiments American Naturalist 140:539-572.
27. Gustafson, L., and W. Franklin. 1995. Predictors of neonatal mortality in the guanacos (Lama guanaco) of Torres del Paine, Chile: a pilot study in adaptive modeling of wildlife populadon health. Pages 285-289 in T. B. Herman, S. Bon drup-Nielson, J. H. M. Willison, and N. P. Munro, editors. Ecosystem monitoring and protected areas. Science and Management of Protected Areas Association, Wolfville, Nova Scotia, Canada.
28. Halpern, E. F. 1973. Polynomial regression from a Bayesian approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association 68:137-143.
29. Hartigan, J. A. 1969. Linear Bayesian methods. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 31:446-454.
30. Hoadley, B. I970. A Bayesian look at inverse linear regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 65:356-369.
31. Holling, C. S., editor. 1978. Adaptive environmental assessment and management. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK.
32. Howson, C., and P. Urbach. 1991. Bayesian reasoning in science. Nature 350:371-374.
33. Huenneke, L. F. 1995. Involving academic scientists in conservation research: perspectives of a plant Geologist. Ecological Applications 5:209-214.
34. Hurlbert, S. H. 1984. Pseudoreplication and the design of ecological field experiments. Ecological Monographs 54: 187-211.
35. Iversen, G. R. 1984. Bayesian statistical inference. Sage, Beverly Hills, California, USA.
36. Jeffreys, H. 1931. Scientific inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
37. _. 1961. Theory of probability. Third edition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
38. Johnson, J. G. 1990. Method of multiple working hypotheses: a chimera. Geology 18:44-45.
39. Kass, R. E., and A. E. Raftery. 1995. Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90:773-795.
40. Kingsland, S. E. 1985. Modeling nature: episodes in the history of population ecology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
41. Lee, K. N. 1993. Compass and gyroscope: integrating science and politics for the environment. Island Press, Washington, DC, USA.
42. Leonard, T. 1978. Density estimation, stochastic processes and prior information (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 40:113-146.
43. Lewontin, R. C. 1974. The analysis of variance and the analysis of causes. American Journal of Human Genetics 26: 400-411.
44. _. 1991. Facts and the factitious in natural sciences. Critical Inquiry 18:140-153.
45. Lindley, D. V. 1957. A statistical paradox. Biometrika 44: 187-192.
46. _. 1971. Making decisions. John Wiley and Sons, London, UK.
47. _. 1972. Bayesian statistics, a review. Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences - National Science Foundation Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, Number 2. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
48. Lindley, D. V., and A. F. M. Smith. 1972. Bayes estimates for the linear model (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 34:1-41.
49. Lubehenco, J., A. M. Olson, L. B. Brubaker, S. R. Carpenter, M. M. Holland, S. P. Hubbell, S. A. Levin, J. A. MacMahon, P. A. Maison, J. M. Melillo, H. A. Mooney, C. H. Peterson, H. R. Pulliam, L. A. Real, P. J. Regal, and P. G. Risser. 1991. The sustainable biosphere initiative: an ecological research agenda. Ecology 72:371-412.
50. Ludwig, D. 1996. Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction possibilities. Ecological Applications 6:1067-1076.
51. Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: lessons from history. Science 260:17, 36.
52. Mapstone, B. D. 1995. Scalable decision rules for environmental impact studies: effect size, Type I, and Type II errors. Ecological Applications 5:401-410.
53. McCullagh, P., and J. A. Nelder. 1991. Generalized linear models. Second edition. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
54. Mclntosh, R. P. 1985. The background of ecology: concept and theory. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
55. Nicholson, M., and J. Barry. 1995. Inferences from spatial surveys about the presence of an unobserved species. Oikos 72:74-78.
56. Orians, G. H., J. Buckley, W. Clark, M. Gilpin, C. Jordan, J. Lehman, R. May, G. Robilliard, D. Simberloff, W. Erchmann, D. Policansky, and N. Grossblatt. 1986. Ecological knowledge and environmental problem solving. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
57. Peterman, R. M. 1990. The importance of reporting statistical power: the forest decline and acidic deposition example. Ecology 71:2024-2027.
58. Peters, R. H. 1991. A critique for ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
59. Pianka, E. R. 1994. Evolutionary ecology. Harper Collins, New York, New York, USA.
60. Pole, A., M. West, and J. Harrison. 1994. Applied Bayesian forecasting and time series analysis. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
61. Popper, K. R. 1968. The logic of scientific discovery. Harper and Row, New York, New York, USA.
62. Raftery, A. E. 1995. Bayesian model selection in social research. Pages 111-196 in P. V. Marsden, editor. Sociological methodology 1995. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford, UK.
63. Raftery, A. E., G. H. Givens, and J. E. Zeh. 1995. Inference from a deterministic population dynamics model for bowhead whales (with comments and rejoinder). Journal of the American Statistical Association 90:402-430.
64. Reckhow, K. H. 1990. Bayesian inference in non-replicated ecological studies. Ecology 71:2053-2059.
65. Robinson, G. K. 1975. Some counterexamples to the theory of confidence intervals. Biometrika 62:155-161.
66. Rohlf, F. J., and R. R. Sokal. 1995. Statistical tables. Third edition. W. H. Freeman, New York, New York, USA.
67. Shrader-Frechette, K. S., and E. D. McCoy. 1992. Statistics, costs and rationality in ecological inference. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 7:96-99.
68. Shrader-Frechette, K. S., and E. D. McCoy. 1993, Method in ecology: strategies for conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
69. Simberloff, D. 1980. A succession of paradigms in ecology: essentialism to materialism and probabilism. Synthèese 43: 3-39.
70. Smith, A. F. M., and A. E. Gelfand. 1992. Bayesian statistics without tears: a sampling - resampling perspective. American Statistician 46:84-88.
71. Smith, J. Q. 1988. Decision analysis: a Bayesian approach. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
72. Sokal, R. R., and F. J. Rohlf. 1995. Biometry. Third edition. W. H. Freeman, New York, New York, USA.
73. Solow, A.R. 1994. On the Bayesian estimation of the number of species in a community. Ecology 75:2139-2142.
74. Spall, J. C., editor. 1988. Bayesian analysis of time series and dynamic models. Marcel Dekker, New York, New York, USA.
75. Sterling, T. D., W. L. Rosenbaum, and J. J. Weinkam. I995. Publication decisions revisited: the effect of the outcome of statistical tests on the decision to publish and vice versa. American Statistician 49:108-112.
76. Strong, D. R., Jr. 1980. Null hypotheses in ecology. Synthèse 43:271-285.
77. Taylor, B. L., P. R. Wade, R. A. Stehn, and J. F. Cochrane. 1996. A Bayesian approach to classification criteria for Spectacled Eiders. Ecological Applications 6:1077-1089.
78. Underwood, A. J. 1995. Ecological research and (and research into) environmental management. Ecological Applications 5:232-247.
79. Ver Hoef, J. M. 1996. Parametric empirical Bayes methods for ecological applications. Ecological Applications 6: 1047-1055.
80. Vitousek, P. M. 1994. Beyond global warming: ecology and global change. Ecology 73:1861-1876.
81. Waller, R. A., and D. B. Duncan. 1969. A Bayes rule for the symmetric multiple comparisons problem. Journal of the American Statistical Association 64:1484-1503.
82. Walters, C. J., and C. S. Holling. 1990. Large-scale management experiments and learning by doing. Ecology 71; 2060-2068.
83. Warwick, R. M., and K. R. Clarke. 1993. Comparing the seventy of disturbance: a meta-analysis of marine macrobenthic community data. Marine Ecology Progress Series 92:221-231.
84. Weiner, J. 1995. On the practice of ecology. Journal of Ecology 83:153-158.
85. Wolfson, L. J., J. B. Kadane, and M. J. Small. 1996. Bayesian environmental policy decisions: two case studies. Ecological Applications 6:1056-1066.