Climate change intensification of herbivore impacts on tree recruitment

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 279, Issue 1732, 2012, Pages 1366-1370

  Brodie, Jedediah ^a   Post, Eric ^c   Watson, Fred ^d   Berger, Joel ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA   (United States)

^c PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Elk; Plant demography; Snowpack; Species interactions; Yellowstone

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONIFEROUS TREE; DEER; DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY; GENERALIST; LONG-TERM CHANGE; PLANT-HERBIVORE INTERACTION; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); SNOWPACK; SURVIVAL;

NORTH CAROLINA; ROCKY MOUNT; UNITED STATES;

CERVUS ELAPHUS; POPULUS TREMULOIDES;

EID: 84857556229     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.1501     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Post, E., Brodie, J., Hebblewhite, M., Anders, A. D., Maier, J. A. K. & Wilmers, C. C. 2009 Global population dynamics and hotspots of response to climate change. BioScience 59, 489-497. (doi:10.1525/bio.2009.59.6.7)
2. Suttle, K. B., Thomsen, M. A. & Power, M. E. 2007 Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate. Science 315, 640-642. (doi:10.1126/ science.1136401)
3. Kelly, A. E. & Goulden, M. L. 2008 Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 11823-11826. (doi:10.1073/pnas. 0802891105)
4. Moritz, C., Patton, J. L., Conroy, C. J., Parra, J. L., White, G. C. & Beissinger, S. R. 2008 Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science 322, 261-264. (doi:10.1126/science.1163428)
5. Post, E. & Pedersen, C. 2008 Opposing plant community responses to warming with and without herbivores. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 12353-12358. (doi:10.1073/ pnas.0802421105)
6. Martin, T. E. 2007 Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system. Ecology 88, 367-380. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2007)88 [367:CCOYOT]2.0.CO;2)
7. Heikkinen, R. K., Luoto, M., Virkkala, R., Pearson, R. G. & Korber, J. H. 2007 Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 754-763. (doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00345.x)
8. Meier, E. S., Kienast, F., Pearman, P. B., Svenning, J. C., Thuiller, W., Araujo, M. B., Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N. E. 2010 Biotic and abiotic variables show little redundancy in explaining tree species distributions. Ecography 33, 1038-1048. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06229.x)
9. Pellissier, L. et al. 2010 Species distribution models reveal apparent competitive and facilitative effects of a dominant species on the distribution of tundra plants. Ecography 33, 1004-1014. (doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587. 2010.06386.x)
10. Schmitz, O. J., Post, E., Burns, C.E. & Johnston, K.M. 2003 Ecosystem responses to global climate change: moving beyond color mapping. Bioscience 53, 1199-1205. (doi:10. 1641/0006-3568(2003)053[1199:ERTG CC]2.0.CO;2)
11. Post, E., Peterson, R. O., Stenseth, N. C. & McLaren, B. E. 1999 Ecosystem consequences of wolf behavioural response to climate. Nature 401, 905-907. (doi:10. 1038/44814)
12. Forchhammer, M. C., Post, E., Berg, T. B. G., Hoye, T. T. & Schmidt, N. M. 2005 Local-scale and shortterm herbivore-plant spatial dynamics reflect influences of large-scale climate. Ecology 86, 2644-2651. (doi:10. 1890/04-1281)
13. Creel, S. & Creel, M. 2009 Density dependence and climate effects in Rocky Mountain elk: an application of regression with instrumental variables for population time series with sampling error. J. Anim. Ecol. 78, 1291-1297. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01581.x)
14. DeByle, N. V. 1985 Wildlife. In Aspen: ecology and management in the western United States (eds N. V. DyByle & R. P. Winokur), Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture Forest Service General Technical Report RM-119.
15. Romme, W. H., Turner, M. G., Wallace, L. L. & Walker, J. S. 1995 Aspen, elk and fire on the northern range of Yellowstone National Park. Ecology 76, 2097-2106. (doi:10.2307/1941684)
16. Kauffman, M. K., Brodie, J. F. & Jules, E. 2010 Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape-level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade. Ecology 91, 2742-2755. (doi:10.1890/09-1949.1)
17. Brown, K., Hansen, A. J., Keane, R. E. & Graumlich, L. J. 2006 Complex interactions shaping aspen dynamics in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Landscape Ecol. 21, 933-951. (doi:10.1007/s10980-005-6190-3)
18. Rehfeldt, G. E., Ferguson, D. E. & Crookston, N. L. 2009 Aspen, climate, and sudden decline in western USA. Forest Ecol. Manag. 258, 2353-2364. (doi:10. 1016/j.foreco.2009.06.005)
19. Proffitt, K. M., Gude, J. A., Hamlin, K. L., Garrott, R. A., Cunningham, J. A. & Grigg, J. L. 2011 Elk distribution and spatial overlap with livestock during the brucellosis transmission risk period. J. Appl. Ecol. 48, 471-478. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01928.x)
20. White, P. J., Garrott, R. A., Cherry, S., Watson, F. G. R., Gower, C. N., Becker, M. S. & Meredith, E. 2009 Changes in elk resource selection and distribution with the reestablishment of wolf predation risk. In The ecology of large mammals in central Yellowstone (eds R. A. Garrott, P. J. White & F. G. R. Watson), pp. 451-476. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier.
21. Wilmers, C. C. & Getz, W. M. 2005 Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone. PLoS Biol. 3, e92. (doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0030092)
22. Forester, J. D., Anderson, D. P. & Turner, M. G. 2007 Do high-density patches of coarse wood and regenerating saplings create browsing refugia for aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in Yellowstone National Park (USA)? Forest Ecol. Manag. 253, 211-219. (doi:10. 1016/j.foreco.2007.07.019)
23. Watson, F. G. R., Anderson, T. N., Newman, W. B., Cornish, S. S. & Thien, T. 2009 Modeling spatial snowpack dynamics. In The ecology of large mammals in central Yellowstone (eds R. A. Garrott, P. J. White & F. G. R. Watson), pp. 85-112. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Academic Press.
24. Watson, F.G. R., Newman, W., Coughlan, J. C. & Garrott, R. A. 2006 Testing a distributed snowpack simulation model against diverse observations. J. Hydrol. 328, 453-466. (doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.012)
25. Watson, F. G. R. & Newman, W. B. 2009 Mapping mean annual precipitation using trivariate kriging. In The ecology of large mammals in central Yellowstone (eds R. A. Garrott, P. J. White & F. G. R. Watson), pp. 37-52. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Academic Press.
26. Cleves, M., Gutierrez, R. G., Gould, W. & Marchenko, Y. V. 2010 An introduction to survival analysis using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.
27. Kay, C. E. 1990 Yellowstone's northern elk herd: a critical evaluation of the 'natural-regulation' paradigm. PhD Dissertation, Utah State University, Logan, Utah
28. Crouse, D. T., Crowder, L. B. & Caswell, H. 1987 A stage-based population-model for loggerhead sea turtles and implications for conservation. Ecology 68, 1412-1423. (doi:10.2307/1939225)
29. Ripple, W. J., Larsen, E. J., Renkin, R. A. & Smith, D. W. 2001 Trophic cascades among wolves, elk and aspen on Yellowstone National Park's northern range. Biol. Conserv. 102, 227-234. (doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(01) 00107-0)
30. Kauffman, M. J., Varley, N., Smith, D.W., Stahler, D. R., MacNulty, D. R. & Boyce, M. S. 2007 Landscape heterogeneity shapes predation in a newly restored predator-prey system. Ecol. Lett. 10, 690-700. (doi:10. 1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01059.x)
31. Mao, J. S., Boyce, M. S., Smith, D. W., Singer, F. J., Vales, D. J., Vore, J. M. & Merrill, E. H. 2005 Habitat selection by elk before and after wolf reintroduction in Yellowstone National Park. J. Wildl. Manag. 69, 1691-1707. (doi:10.2193/0022-541X(2005)69[1691:HSBE BA]2.0.CO;2)
32. Creel, S. & Christianson, D. 2009 Wolf presence and increased willow consumption by Yellowstone elk: implications for trophic cascades. Ecology 90, 2454-2466. (doi:10.1890/08-2017.1)
33. Eberhardt, L. L., White, P. J., Garrott, R. A. & Houston, D. B. 2007 A seventy-year history of trends in Yellowstone's northern elk herd. J. Wildl. Manag. 71, 594-602. (doi:10.2193/2005-770)
34. Wang, G. M., Hobbs, N. T., Singer, F. J., Ojima, D. S. & Lubow, B. C. 2002 Impacts of climate changes on elk population dynamics in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Climatic Change 54, 205-223. (doi:10. 1023/A:1015725103348)
35. Mote, P. W., Hamlet, A. F., Clark, M. P. & Lettenmaier, D. P. 2005 Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86, 39-49. (doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-1-39)
36. Whitlock, C. & Bartlein, P. J. 1993 Spatial variations of Holocene climatic-change in the Yellowstone region. Quat. Res. 39, 231-238. (doi:10.1006/qres.1993.1026)
37. Whitlock, C., Dean, W., Rosenbaum, J., Stevens, L., Fritz, S., Bracht, B. & Power, M. 2008 A 2650-yearlong record of environmental change from northern Yellowstone National Park based on a comparison of multiple proxy data. Quat. Int. 188, 126-138. (doi:10. 1016/j.quaint.2007.06.005)
38. White, P. J. & Garrott, R. A. 2005 Northern Yellowstone elk after wolf restoration. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 33, 942-955. (doi:10.2193/0091-7648(2005)33[942:NYE AWR]2.0.CO;2)
39. Jones, H. G., Pomeroy, J. W., Walker, D. A. & Hoham, R. W. 2001 (ed.) Snow ecology: an interdisciplinary examination of snow-covered ecosystems. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
40. Briones, M. J. I., Ineson, P. & Heinemeyer, A. 2007 Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of enchytraeids: a meta-analysis approach. Global Change Biol. 13, 2252-2269. (doi:10. 1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01434.x)
41. Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelus, C. L., Gilman, A. C. & Longino, J. T. 2008 Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322, 258-261. (doi:10.1126/science. 1162547)
42. Gornall, J. L., Woodin, S. J., Jonsdottir, I. S. & van der Wal, R. 2009 Herbivore impacts to the moss layer determine tundra ecosystem responses to grazing and warming. Oecologia 161, 747-758. (doi:10.1007/ s00442-009-1427-5)