Predicting early adoption of successive video player generations

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 79, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 558-569

  Van Rijnsoever, Frank J ^a   Oppewal, Harmen ^b  

^a UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Early adoption; Home entertainment market; Innovation; Product generations

Indexed keywords

ADOPTION OF INNOVATIONS; CONVENTIONAL MODELS; EARLY ADOPTION; HOME ENTERTAINMENT; INNOVATION DIFFUSION; NEW PRODUCT; PREDICTING MODELS; PREDICTIVE MODELS; PRODUCT GENERATION; VIDEO PLAYERS;

INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

FORECASTING;

FORECASTING METHOD; INNOVATION; MODELING; PREDICTION; TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION; TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84856757566     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.008     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. G.Digital Entertainment Press Release: DEG Year-End 2008 Home Entertainment Sales Figures 2009, Digital Entertainment Group, Los Angeles.
2. Rogers E.M. Diffusion of Innovations 2003, Free Press, New York. 5th ed.
3. Van Rijnsoever F.J., Castaldi C. Extending consumer categorization based on innovativeness: intentions and technology clusters in consumer electronics. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 2011, 62:1604-1613.
4. Midgley D.F., Dowling G.R. Innovativeness: the concept and its measurement. J. Consum. Res. 1978, 4:229-242.
5. Hirschman E.C. Innovativeness, novelty seeking and consumer creativity. J. Consum. Res. 1980, 7:283-295.
6. Roehrich G. Consumer innovativeness - concepts and measurements. J. Bus. Res. 2004, 57:671-677.
7. Von Hippel E. Democratizing Innovation 2005, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
8. Lüthje C. Characteristics of innovating users in a consumer goods field - an empirical study of sport-related product consumers. Technovation 2004, 24:683-695.
9. Katz E.P., Lazarsfeld P.F. Personal Influence 1964, The Free Press, New York.
10. Rogers E.M., Cartano D.G. Methods of measuring opinion leadership. Public Opin. Q. 1962, 26:435-441.
11. Cestre G., Darmon R.Y. Assessing consumer preferences in the context of new product diffusion. Int. J. Res. Mark. 1998, 15:123-135.
12. Gatignon H., Robertson T.S. A propositional inventory for new diffusion research. J. Consum. Res. 1985, 11:849-867.
13. Dickerson M.D., Gentry J.W. Characteristics of adopters and non-adopters of home computers. J. Consum. Res. 1983, 10:225-235.
14. Vishwanath A., Goldhaber G.M. An examination of the factors contributing to adoption decisions among late-diffused technology products. New Media Soc. 2003, 5:547-572.
15. Larose R., Atkin D. Audiotext and the reinvention of the telephone as a mass medium. Journal. Q. 1992, 69:413-421.
16. Van Rijnsoever F.J., Castaldi C. Perceived technology clusters and ownership of related technologies: the case of consumer electronics. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 2009, 60:381-392.
17. Vishwanath A., Chen H. Technology clusters: using multidimensional scaling to evaluate and structure technology clusters. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 2006, 57:1451-1460.
18. Bussele R., Reagan J., Pinkleton B., Jackson K. Factors affecting Internet Use in a saturated-access population. Telemat. Inf. 1999, 16:45-99.
19. Leung L., Wei R. Who are the mobile phone have-nots?. New Media Soc. 1999, 1:209-226.
20. Saviotti P.P., Metcalfe J.S. A theoretical approach to the construction of technological output indicators. Res. Policy 1984, 13:141-151.
21. Pae J.H., Lehmann D.R. Multigeneration innovation diffusion: the impact of intergeneration time. J. Acad. Mark. Sci. 2003, 31:36-45.
22. Danaher P.J., Hardie B.G.S., Putsis W.R. Marketing-mix variables and the diffusion of successive generations of a technological innovation. J. Mark. Res. 2001, 38:501-514.
23. Norton J.A., Bass F.M. A diffusion-theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high-technology products. Manag. Sci. 1987, 33:1069-1086.
24. Michalakelis C., Varoutas D., Sphicopoulos T. Innovation diffusion with generation substitution effects. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Chang. 2010, 77:541-557.
25. Kreng V.B., Wang H.T. A technology replacement model with variable market potential - an empirical study of CRT and LCD TV. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2009, 76:942-951.
26. Castaldi C., Fontana R., Nuvolari A. 'Chariots of fire': the evolution of tank technology, 1915-1945. J. Evol. Econ. 2009, 545-566.
27. Frenken K., Leydesdorff L. Scaling trajectories in civil aircraft (1913-1997). Res. Policy 2000, 29:331-348.
28. Kim N., Srivastava R.K., Han J.K. Consumer decision-making in a multi-generational choice set context. J. Bus. Res. 2001, 53:123-136.
29. Sääksjärvi M., Lampinen M. Consumer perceived risk in successive product generations. Eur. J. Innov. Manag. 2005, 8:145-156.
30. Liebowitz S.J., Margolis S.E. Path dependence, lock-in, and history. J. Law Econ. Organ. 1995, 11:205-226.
31. Van Rijnsoever F.J., Donders A.R.T. The effect of innovativeness on different levels of technology adoption. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 2009, 60:984-996.
32. Sujan M. Consumer knowledge - effects on evaluation strategies mediating consumer judgments. J. Consum. Res. 1985, 12:31-46.
33. Gregan-Paxton J., John D.R. Consumer learning by analogy: a model of internal knowledge transfer. J. Consum. Res. 1997, 24:266-284.
34. Johnson E.J., Russo J.E. Product familiarity and learning new information. J. Consum. Res. 1984, 11:542-550.
35. Blackwell R.D., Miniard P.W., Engel J.F. Consumer Behavior 2001, Harcourt College Publishers, Fort Worth.
36. Alba J.W., Hutchinson J.W. Dimensions of consumer expertise. J. Consum. Res. 1987, 13:411-454.
37. Chang M.K., Cheung W.M., Lai V.S. Literature derived reference models for the adoption of online shopping. Inf. Manag. 2005, 42:543-559.
38. Schreier M., Prugl R. Extending lead-user theory: antecedents and consequences of consumers' lead userness. J. Prod. Innov. Manage. 2008, 25:331-346.
39. Bayus B.L., Gupta S. An empirical analysis of consumer durable replacement intentions. Int. J. Res. Mark. 1992, 9:257-267.
40. Celsi R.L., Olson J.C. The role of involvement in attention and comprehension processes. J. Consum. Res. 1988, 15:210-224.
41. Schmidt J.B., Spreng R.A. A proposed model of external consumer information search. J. Acad. Mark. Sci. 1996, 24:246-256.
42. Boyd T.C., Mason C.H. The link between attractiveness of "extrabrand" attributes and the adoption of innovations. J. Acad. Mark. Sci. 1999, 27:306-319.
43. Leung L. Lifestyles and the use of new media technology in urban China. Telecommun. Policy 1998, 22:781-790.
44. Aversi R., Dosi G., Fagiolo G., Meacci M., Olivetti C. Demand dynamics with socially evolving preferences. Ind. Corp. Change 1999, 8:353-408.
45. Ziamou P.L., Veryzer R.W. The influence of temporal distance on consumer preferences for technology-based innovations. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 2005, 22:336-346.
46. Vishwanath A. Impact of personality on technology adoption: an empirical model. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 2005, 56:803-811.
47. Goldsmith R.E., Hofacker C.F. Measuring consumer innovativeness. J. Acad. Mark. Sci. 1991, 19:209-221.
48. Im S., Bayus B.L., Mason C.H. An empirical study of innate consumer innovativeness, personal characteristics, and new-product adoption behavior. J. Acad. Mark. Sci. 2003, 31:61-73.
49. Garcia R., Calantone R. A critical look at technological innovation typology and innovativeness terminology: a literature review. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 2002, 19:110-132.
50. Goldsmith R.E., Freiden J.B., Eastman J.K. The generality/specificity issue in consumer innovativeness research. Technovation 1995, 15:601-612.
51. Acock A.C., DeFleur M.L. A configurational approach to contingent consistency in the attitude-behavior relationship. Am. Sociol. Rev. 1972, 37:714-726.
52. Bartiaux F. Does environmental information overcome practice compartmentalisation and change consumers' behaviours?. J. Cleaner Prod. 2008, 16:1170-1180.
53. Owens S. 'Engaging the public': information and deliberation in environmental policy. Environ. Plann. A 2000, 32:1141-1148.
54. Lee H., Ryu J., Kim D. Profiling mobile TV adopters in college student populations of Korea. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2010, 77:514-523.
55. Manning K.C., Bearden W.O., Madden T.J. Consumer innovativeness and the adoption process. J. Consum. Psychol. 1995, 4:329-345.
56. Steenkamp J.B.E.M., Gielens K. Consumer and market drivers of the trial probability of new consumer packaged goods. J. Consum. Res. 2003, 30:368-384.
57. Steenkamp J.B.E.M., ter Hofstede F., Wedel M. A cross-national investigation into the individual and national cultural antecedents of consumer innovativeness. J. Mark. 1999, 63:55-69.
58. Bearden W.O., Netemeyer R.G., Teel J.E. Measurement of consumer susceptibility to interpersonal influence. J. Consum. Res. 1989, 15:473-481.
59. Jöreskog K., Sörbom D. LISREL 2006, Scientific Software International, Inc.
60. Donders A.R.T., van der Heijden G.J.M.G., Stijnen T., Moons K.G.M. Review: a gentle introduction to imputation of missing values. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 2006, 59:1087-1091.
61. Fawcett T. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognit. Lett. 2006, 27:861-874.
62. Preacher K., Hayes A. Asymptotic and resampling strategies for assessing and comparing indirect effects in multiple mediator models. Behav. Res. Methods 2008, 40:879-891.
63. Vakratsas D., Kolsarici C. A dual-market diffusion model for a new prescription pharmaceutical. Int. J. Res. Mark. 2008, 25:282-293.
64. Ajzen I. Attitudes, personality and behavior 2005, Open University Press, Berkshire, England. 2nd ed.
65. Gardial S.F., Clemons D.S., Woodruff R.B., Schumann D.W., Burns M.J. Comparing consumers' recall of prepurchase and postpurchase product evaluation experiences. J. Consum. Res. 1994, 20:548-560.