The race is not to the swift: Long-term data reveal pervasive declines in California's low-elevation butterfly fauna

Ecology

Volumn 92, Issue 12, 2011, Pages 2222-2235

  Forister, Matthew L ^a   Jahner, Joshua P ^a   Casner, Kayce L ^b   Wilson, Joseph S ^a   Shapiro, Arthur M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Butterflies; Central Valley California USA; Extinction; Global change; Long term data; Monitoring

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BUTTERFLY; DATA SET; ELEVATION; EXTINCTION; EXTINCTION RISK; GEOGRAPHICAL REGION; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION; HABITAT LOSS; HISTORICAL RECORD; LONG-TERM CHANGE; MONITORING; POPULATION DECLINE; SPECIES RICHNESS; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIODIVERSITY; BUTTERFLY; GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SPECIES EXTINCTION; UNITED STATES;

ANIMALS; BIODIVERSITY; BUTTERFLIES; CALIFORNIA; EXTINCTION, BIOLOGICAL; GEOGRAPHY; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

CALIFORNIA; CENTRAL VALLEY [CALIFORNIA]; UNITED STATES;

INVERTEBRATA; PAPILIONOIDEA;

EID: 84555195610     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/11-0382.1     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Benton, T. G. 2003. Understanding the ecology of extinction: are we close to the critical threshold? Annales Zoologici Fennici 40:71-80. (Pubitemid 36639666)
2. Blackburn, T. M., J. H. Lawton, and J. N. Perry. 1992. A method of estimating the slope of upper-bounds of plots of body size and abundance in natural animal assemblages. Oikos 65:107-112.
3. Boyles, J. G., and J. J. Storm. 2007. The perils of picky eating: dietary breadth is related to extinction risk in insectivorous bats. Plos One 2:e672.
4. Brook, B. W., N. S. Sodhi, and C. J. A. Bradshaw. 2008. Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23:453-460.
5. Cameron, S. A., J. D. Lozier, J. P. Strange, J. B. Koch, N. Cordes, L. F. Solter, and T. L. Griswold. 2011. Patterns of widespread decline in North American bumble bees. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 108:662-667.
6. Cardillo, M., G. M. Mace, K. E. Jones, J. Bielby, O. R. P. Bininda-Emonds, W. Sechrest, C. D. L. Orme, and A. Purvis. 2005. Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species. Science 309:1239-1241. (Pubitemid 41170916)
7. Conrad, K. F., M. S. Warren, R. Fox, M. S. Parsons, and I. P. Woiwod. 2006. Rapid declines of common, widespread British moths provide evidence of an insect biodiversity crisis. Biological Conservation 132:279-291. (Pubitemid 44015688)
8. Dennis, R. L. H., and T. G. Shreeve. 2003. Gains and losses of French butterflies: tests of predictions, under-recording and regional extinction from data in a new atlas. Biological Conservation 110:131-139. (Pubitemid 36128638)
9. dos Santos, F. S., K. Johst, A. Huth, and V. Grimm. 2010. Interacting effects of habitat destruction and changing disturbance rates on biodiversity. Who is going to survive? Ecological Modelling 221:2776-2783.
10. Dunn, R. R. 2005. Modern insect extinctions, the neglected majority. Conservation Biology 19:1030-1036. (Pubitemid 41672815)
11. Ehrlich, P. R., D. D. Murphy, M. C. Singer, C. B. Sherwood, R. R. White, and I. L. Brown. 1980. Extinction, reduction, stability and increase: the responses of checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas) populations to the California drought. Oecologia 46:101-105.
12. Fattorini, S. 2011. Insect extinction by urbanization: a long term study in Rome. Biological Conservation 144:370-375.
13. Forister, M. L., A. C. McCall, N. J. Sanders, J. A. Fordyce, J. H. Thorne, J. O'Brien, D. P. Waetjen, and A. M. Shapiro. 2010. Compounded effects of climate change and habitat alteration shift patterns of butterfly diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107:2088-2092.
14. Forister, M. L., and A. M. Shapiro. 2003. Climatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland California. Global Change Biology 9:1130-1135. (Pubitemid 36938403)
15. Franzén, M., and M. Johannesson. 2007. Predicting extinction risk of butterflies and moths (Macrolepidoptera) from distribution patterns and species characteristics. Journal of Insect Conservation 11:367-390. (Pubitemid 350031782)
16. Garth, J. S., and J. W. Tilden. 1986. California butterflies. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
17. Gaston, K. J. 2010. Valuing common species. Science 327:154-155.
18. Gould, S. J. 1989. Wonderful life: the Burgess Shale and the nature of history. First edition. W.W. Norton, New York, New York, USA.
19. Hanski, I., and O. Ovaskainen. 2002. Extinction debt at extinction threshold. Conservation Biology 16:666-673. (Pubitemid 34592921)
20. Jablonski, D. 1995. Extinctions in the fossil record. Pages 25-44 in J. H. Lawton and R. M. May, editors. Extinction rates. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
21. Kareiva, P. 2004. Ecology: compensating for extinction. Current Biology 14:R627-R628. (Pubitemid 39081657)
22. Katibah, E. F. 1984. A brief history of riparian forests in the Central Valley of California. Pages 23-29 in R. E. Warner and K. M. Hendrix, editors. California riparian systems: ecology, conservation and productive management. University of California Press, Berkeley, California, USA.
23. Koh, L. P., N. S. Sodhi, and B. W. Brook. 2004. Ecological correlates of extinction proneness in tropical butterflies. Conservation Biology 18:1571-1578. (Pubitemid 39651348)
24. Kotiaho, J. S., V. Kaitala, A. Komonen, and J. Paivinen. 2005. Predicting the risk of extinction from shared ecological characteristics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 102:1963-1967. (Pubitemid 40261995)
25. Kotze, D. J., and R. B. O'Hara. 2003. Species decline-but why? Explanations of carabid beetle (Coleoptera, Carabidae) declines in Europe. Oecologia 135:138-148. (Pubitemid 36400246)
26. Kuussaari, M., et al. 2009. Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24:564-571.
27. Labandeira, C. C., K. R. Johnson, and P. Wilf. 2002. Impact of the terminal Cretaceous event on plant-insect associations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 99:2061-2066. (Pubitemid 34169014)
28. Longley, M., and N. W. Sotherton. 1997. Factors determining the effects of pesticides upon butterflies inhabiting arable farmland. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 61:1-12.
29. Maes, D., and H. Van Dyck. 2001. Butterfly diversity loss in Flanders (north Belgium): Europe's worst case scenario? Biological Conservation 99:263-276. (Pubitemid 33648558)
30. Malcolm, J. R., C. R. Liu, R. P. Neilson, L. Hansen, and L. Hannah. 2006. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology 20:538-548.
31. McKinney, M. L. 1997. Extinction vulnerability and selectivity: combining ecological and paleontological views. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 28:495-516. (Pubitemid 28012301)
32. McLaughlin, J. F., J. J. Hellmann, C. L. Boggs, and P. R. Ehrlich. 2002. The route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly. Oecologia 132:538-548. (Pubitemid 36059169)
33. Nilsson, S. G., M. Franzen, and E. Jonsson. 2008. Long-term land-use changes and extinction of specialised butterflies. Insect Conservation and Diversity 1:197-207.
34. Nylin, S., and A. Bergstrom. 2009. Threat status in butterflies and its ecological correlates: How far can we generalize? Biodiversity and Conservation 18:3243-3267.
35. Opler, P. A., K. Lotts, and T. Naberhaus. 2010. Butterflies and moths of North America. ?〈http://www.butterfliesandmoths.org/〉 (Version 09/28/2010).
36. Opler, P. A., and A. B. Wright. 1999. Western butterflies. Houghton Mifflin, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
37. Powney, G. D., D. B. Roy, D. Chapman, and T. H. Oliver. 2010. Synchrony of butterfly populations across species' geographic ranges. Oikos 119:1690-1696.
38. Purvis, A., J. L. Gittleman, G. Cowlishaw, and G. M. Mace. 2000. Predicting extinction risk in declining species. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 267:1947-1952.
39. R Development Core Team. 2010. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
40. Raferty, A., J. Hoeting, C. Volinsky, I. Painter, and K. Yeung. 2010. BMA: Bayesian model averaging. R package version 3.13. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
41. Schtickzelle, N., G. Mennechez, and M. Baguette. 2006. Dispersal depression with habitat fragmentation in the bog fritillary butterfly. Ecology 87:1057-1065.
42. Scott, J. A. 1986. The butterflies of North America. Stanford University Press, Stanford, California, USA.
43. Scrucca, S. 2009. dispmod: Dispersion models. R package version 1.0.1. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
44. Shapiro, A. M. 2002. The Californian urban butterfly fauna is dependent on alien plants. Diversity and Distributions 8:31-40. (Pubitemid 34115738)
45. Shapiro, A. M. 2011. Monitoring butterfly populations across Central California for more than 35 years. 〈http://butterfly.ucdavis.edu/〉
46. Shapiro, A. M., R. Van Buskirk, G. Kareofelas, and W. D. Patterson. 2003. Phenofaunistics: seasonality as a property of butterfly faunas. Pages 111-147 in C. L. Boggs, W. B. Watt, and P. R. Ehrlich, editors. Butterflies: ecology and evolution taking flight. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
47. Sodhi, N. S., D. Bickford, A. C. Diesmos, T. M. Lee, L. P. Koh, B. W. Brook, C. H. Sekercioglu, and C. J. A. Bradshaw. 2008. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline. Plos One 3.
48. Stefanescu, C., I. Torre, J. Jubany, and F. Paramo. 2011. Recent trends in butterfly populations from north-east Spain and Andorra in the light of habitat and climate change. Journal of Insect Conservation 15:83-93.
49. Sullivan, M. S., F. Gilbert, G. Rotheray, S. Croasdale, and M. Jones. 2000. Comparative analyses of correlates of Red data book status: a case study using European hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae). Animal Conservation 3:91-95.
50. Swengel, S. R., D. Schlicht, F. Olsen, and A. B. Swengel. 2011. Declines of prairie butterflies in the midwestern USA. Journal of Insect Conservation 15:327-339.
51. Swofford, D. L. 2002. PAUP*. Phylogenetic analysis using parsimony ((*and other methods). Version 4. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.
52. Thomas, J. A., M. G. Telfer, D. B. Roy, C. D. Preston, J. J. D. Greenwood, J. Asher, R. Fox, R. T. Clarke, and J. H. Lawton. 2004. Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds, and plants and the global extinction crisis. Science 303:1879-1881. (Pubitemid 38374882)
53. Thorne, J. H., J. O'Brien, M. L. Forister, and A. M. Shapiro. 2006. Building phenological models from presence/absence data for a butterfly fauna. Ecological Applications 16:1842-1853. (Pubitemid 44536930)
54. Warren, M. S., et al. 2001. Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414:65-69. (Pubitemid 33041623)
55. Wickham, H. 2009. Ggplot2: elegant graphics for data analysis. Springer, New York, New York, USA.