Building phenological models from presence/absence data for a butterfly fauna

Ecological Applications

Volumn 16, Issue 5, 2006, Pages 1842-1853

  Thorne, James H ^a   O'Brien, Joshua ^a   Forister, Matthew L ^b   Shapiro, Arthur M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Butterflies; California coast range; Climate change; Long term monitoring; Phenological modeling; Phenology; Potential aggregate species richness; Presence absence data

Indexed keywords

BUTTERFLY; CLIMATE CHANGE; DATA SET; ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS; PHENOLOGY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPECIES RICHNESS;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BUTTERFLY; ECOSYSTEM; LIFE CYCLE; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DENSITY; SEASON; TIME;

ANIMALS; BUTTERFLIES; ECOSYSTEM; LIFE CYCLE STAGES; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DENSITY; SEASONS; TIME FACTORS;

CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

PAPILIONOIDEA;

EID: 33749555284     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: 10510761     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[1842:BPMFAD]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Access. 2004. Access relational database. Microsoft, Seattle, Washington, USA.
2. Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson. 2001. Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 82:399-415.
3. Chiune, I., P. Yiou, N. Viovy, B. Seguin, V. Daux, and E. Le Roy Ladurie. 2004. Summer temperature variations are reconstructed from harvest dates since 1370. Nature 423(7015):289-290.
4. Diamond, J. M. 1983. Laboratory, field and natural experiments. Nature 304(5927):586-587.
5. Emmel, T. C. 1963. Ecological studies of Rhopalocera at Donner Pass, California. II. Meteorological influences on flight activity. Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society 17:7-20.
6. Emmel, T. C., and J. F. Emmel. 1962. Ecological studies of Rhopalocera at Donner Pass, California. I. Butterfly associations and distributional factors. Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society 16:23-44.
7. Forister, M. L., and A. M. Shapiro. 2003. Climatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland California. Global Change Biology 9:1130-1135.
8. Gurevitch, J., S. M. Scheiner, and G. A. Fox. 2002. The ecology of plants. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA.
9. Hellmann, J. J., S. B. Weiss, J. F. McLaughlin, P. R. Ehrlich, D. D. Murphy, and A. E. Launer. 2004. Structure and dynamics of Euphydryas editha populations. Chapter 3. Pages 34-62 in P. R. Ehrlich and I. Hanski, editors. On the wings of checkerspots: a model system for population biology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
10. Inouye, D. W., B. Barr, K. B. Armitage, and B. D. Inouye. 2000. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 97:1630-1633.
11. Konvicka, M., M. Maradova, J. Benes, Z. Fric, and P. Kepka. 2003. Uphill shifts in distribution of butterflies in the Czech Republic: effects of changing climate detected on a regional scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography 12:1195-1202.
12. Morisita, M. 1967. The seasonal distribution of butterflies in the suburbs of Kyoto. Pages 95-132 in M. Morisita and T. Kira, editors. Natural history - ecological studies. Chuo Koron, Tokyo, Japan.
13. Opler, P., and R. L. Langston. 1968. A distributional analysis of the butterflies of Contra Costa County, California. Journal of the Lepidopterists' Society 21:89-107.
14. Pollard, E., D. Moss, and T. J. Yates. 1995. Population trends of common British butterflies at monitored sites. Journal of Applied Ecology 32:9-16.
15. Preston, F. W. 1948. The commonness, and rarity, of species. Ecology 29:254-283.
16. Robert, C. P., and G. Casella. 2004. Monte Carlo statistical methods. Springer, Berlin, Germany.
17. Roy, D. B., P. Rothery, D. Moss, E. Pollard, and J. A. Thomas. 2001. Butterfly numbers and weather: predicting historical trends in abundance and the future effects of climate change. Journal of Animal Ecology 70:201-217.
18. Roy, D. B., and T. H. Sparks. 2000. Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Global Change Biology 6:407-416.
19. Sanz, J. J. 2003. Large-scale effect of climate change on breeding parameters of pied flychatchers in Western Europe. Ecography 26:45-50.
20. SAS Institute. 2000. SAS. Version 8. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
21. SAS Institute. 2002. JMP. Version 5. SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA.
22. Shapiro, A. M., R. VanBuskirk, G. Kareofelas, and W. D. Patterson. 2003. Phenofaunistics: seasonality as a property of butterfly faunas. Pages 111-147 in C. L. Boggs, W. B. Watt, and P. R. Ehrlich, editors. Butterflies: ecology and evolution taking flight. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
23. Southward, A. J., S. J. Hawkins, and M. T. Burrows. 1995. Seventy years' observations of changes in distribution and abundance of zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English Channel in relation to rising sea temperature. Journal of Thermal Biology 20:127-155.
24. Stefanescu, C., J. Penuelas, and I. Filella. 2003. Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. Global Change Biology 9:1494-1506.
25. Venables, W. N., and B. B. Ripley. 2002. Modern applied statistics with S. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
26. Walther, G., E. Post, P. Convey, A. Menzel, C. Parmesan, T. J. Beebee, J. Fromentin, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, and F. Bairlein. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-395.
27. Western Regional Climate Center. 2004. Historical climate information, Station number 9200. Western Regional Climate Center, Reno, Nevada, USA. 〈http://www.wrcc.dri.edu〉
28. Whitfield, J. 2001. The budding amateurs. Nature 414:578-579.
29. Wolfe, D. W., M. D. Schwartz, A. N. Lakso, Y. Otsuki, R. M. Pool, and N. J. Shaulis. 2005. Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA. International Journal of Biometeorology 49:303-309.