Modelling commercial fish distributions: Prediction and assessment using different approaches

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 225, Issue , 2012, Pages 133-145

  Jones, Miranda C ^a,b,c   Dye, Stephen R ^b   Pinnegar, John K ^b   Warren, Rachel ^a,c   Cheung, William W L ^a,b,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

^b CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT   (United Kingdom)

^c TYNDALL CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Marine fishes; Model comparison; North sea; Range maps; Species distribution modelling

Indexed keywords

MARINE FISH; MODEL COMPARISON; NORTH SEA; RANGE MAPS; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING;

ALGORITHMS; BIODIVERSITY; ECOSYSTEMS; FISH; FORECASTING; STATISTICAL TESTS; STATISTICS;

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION;

ALGORITHM; BIODIVERSITY; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; FISH; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL CHANGE; HABITAT CONSERVATION; INVERTEBRATE; MARINE ENVIRONMENT; PREDICTION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); NORTH SEA;

INVERTEBRATA; PISCES;

EID: 83455195585     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.003     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Austin M. Species distribution models and ecological theory: a critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecological Modelling 2007, 200:1-19.
2. Austin M.P., Nicholls A.O., Margules C.R. Measurement of the realised qualitative niche: environmental niches of five Eucalyptus species. Ecological Monographs 1990, 60:161-177.
3. Beaugrand G. The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. Progress in Oceanography 2004, 60:245-262.
4. Beaugrand G. Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 2009, 56:656-673.
5. Beaumont L.J., Hughes L. Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Global Change Biology 2002, 8:954-971.
6. Bigg G.R., Cunningham C.W., Ottersen G., Pogson G.H., Wadley M.R., Williamson P. Ice-age survival of Atlantic cod: agreement between palaeoecological models and genetics. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 2008, 275:163-173.
7. Brotons L., Thuiller W., Araújo M.B., Hirzel A.H. Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability. Ecography 2004, 27:437-448.
8. Cavalieri D., Parkinson C., Gloersen P., Zwally H.J. Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I Passive Microwave Data [1972-2002] 1996, National Snow and Ice Data Centre. Digital media, Boulder, Colorado, USA, updated 2008.
9. Carr M-E., Friedrichs A.M., Schmeltz M., Aita M.N., Antoine D., Arrigo K.R., et al. A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color. Deep Sea Research Part II 2006, 53:741-770.
10. Close C., Cheung W., Hodgson S., Lam V., Watson R., Pauly D. Distribution ranges of commercial fishes and invertebrates. Fishes in Databases and Ecosystems 2006, vol. 144:27-37. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia: Fisheries Centre Research Reports.
11. Cheung W.W.L., Lam V.W., Pauly D. Dynamic bioclimate envelope model to predict climate-induced changes in distribution of marine fishes and invertebrates. Modeling Present and Climate-shifted Distribution of Marine Fishes and Invertebrates 2008, vol. 163:5-45. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia: Fisheries Centre Research Reports.
12. Cheung W.W.L., Lam V.W., Sarmiento J.L., Kearney K., Watson R., Pauly D. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries 2009, 10:235-251.
13. Conkright M.E., Locarnini R.A., Garcia H.E., O'Brien T.D., Boyer T.P., Stephens C., et al. World Ocean Atlas 2001: Objective Analyses, Data Statistics and Figures CD-ROM Documentation 2002, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanographic Data Centre, Silver Spring, MD.
14. Drake J.M., Randin C., Guisan A. Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines. Journal of Applied Ecology 2006, 43:424-432.
15. Dulvy N.K., Rogers S.I., Jennings S., Stelzenmüller V., Dye S.R., Skjoldal H.R. Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. Journal of Applied Ecology 2008, 45:1029-1039.
16. Ekman S. Zoogeography of the Sea 1953, Sidgwick & Jackson, London.
17. Elith J., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Graham C.H., Anderson R.P., Hijmans R.J., et al. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 2006, 29:129-151.
18. FAO, <> (last accessed 03/2011). http://www.fao.org/fishery/species/search/en.
19. Fielding A.H., Bell J.F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 1997, 24(1):38-49.
20. Franklin J. Mapping Species Distributions; Spatial Inference and Prediction 2009, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
21. Froese, R., Pauly, D., editors. FishBase. World Wide Web electronic publication 2011. , version (02/2011) (last accessed 04/2011). http://www.fishbase.org/.
22. Global Biodiversity Information Facility, <> (last accessed 11/2010). http://data.gbif.org/.
23. Guisan A., Thuiller W. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters 2005, 8:993-1009.
24. Guisan A., Zimmermann N.E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 2000, 135:147-186.
25. Helcom Biodiversity in the Baltic Sea-an integrated thematic assessment on biodiversity and nature conservation in the Baltic Sea. Balt. Sea Environ. Proc. 2009, 116B.
26. Hernandez P.A., Graham C.H., Master L.L., Albert D.L. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modelling methods. Ecography 2006, 29:773-785.
27. Hijmans R.J., Graham C.H. The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology 2006, 12:2272-2281.
28. Hirzel A.H., Helfer V., Metral F. Assessing habitat-suitability models with a virtual species. Ecological Modelling 2001, 145:111-121.
29. Hutchinson G.E. Concluding remarks. Col Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology 1957, 22(2):415-427.
30. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Ecosystem Database, <> (last accessed 03/2011). http://ecosystemdata.ices.dk/.
31. Jiménez-Valverde A., Lobo J.M., Hortal J. Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions 2008, 14:885-890.
32. Kadmon R., Farber O., Danin A. A systematic analysis of factors affecting the performance of climate envelope models. Ecological Applications 2003, 13(3):853-867.
33. Kaschner, K., Ready, J.S., Agbayani, E., Rius, J., Kesner-Reyes, K., Eastwood, P.D., et al., 2008. AquaMaps. Predicted range maps for aquatic species. World wide web. electronic publication, <> Version 08/2010. http://www.aquamaps.org/.
34. Kaschner K., Watson R., Trites A.W., Pauly D. Mapping world-wide distributions of marine mammal species using a relative environmental suitability (RES) model. Marine Ecology Progress Series 2006, 316:285-310.
35. Kimmins J.P., Blanco J.A., Seely B., Welham C., Scoullar K. Complexity in modeling forest ecosystems; how much is enough. Forest Ecology and Management 2008, 256(10):1646-1658.
36. King J.R. Report of the Study Group on Fisheries and Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts. PICES Scientific Report, 28 2005, p. 162.
37. Lam V.W.Y., Cheung W.W.L., Close C., Hodgson S., Watson R., Pauly D. Modelling seasonal distribution of pelagic marine fishes and squids. Modeling Present and Climate-shifted Distribution of Marine Fishes and Invertebrates, 16(3) 2008, 51-62. Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia: Fisheries Centre Research Reports. W.W.L. Cheung, V.W.Y. Lam, D. Pauly (Eds.).
38. Lobo J.M., Jiménez-valverde A., Real R. AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2008, 17:145-151.
39. Martinez-Meyer E. Climate change and biodiversity: some considerations in forecasting shifts in species' potential distributions. Biodiversity Informatics 2005, 2:42-55.
40. MacLeod C.D., Bannon S.M., Pierce G.J., Schweder C., Learmonth J.A., Herman J.S., et al. Climate change and the cetacean community of north-west Scotland. Biological Conservation 2005, 124:477-483.
41. NOAA, 2006. ETOPO2 v global gridded 2-minuts database. U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environment Satellite, Data and Information Service, National Geophysical Data Centre, <> (accessed 2007). http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/image/2minrelief.html.
42. NOAA. NOAA optimum interpolation sea surface temperature analysis. U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centre for Environmental Prediction, <> (accessed 2007). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst%20analysis.
43. Fishes of Estonia 2003, Estonian Academy Publishers, Tallinn. E. Ojaveer, E. Pihu, T. Saat (Eds.).
44. In: Palomares, M.L.D., Pauly, D. (Eds.). SeaLifeBase. World Wide Web electronic publication 2011, <> version (10/2011) (last accessed 10/2011). http://www.sealifebase.org/.
45. Pauly, D., 2010. Gasping Fish and Panting Squids: Oxygen, Temperature and the Growth of Water-Breathing Animals. Excellence in Ecology (22), International Ecology Institute, Oldendorf/Luhe, Germany, xxviii + 216 p.
46. Pauly D., Christensen V., Guénette S., Pitcher T.J., Sumaila U.R., Walters C.J., et al. Towards sustainability of world fisheries. Nature 2002, 418:689-695.
47. Pearson R.G., Dawson T.P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecology and Biogeography 2003, 12:361-371.
48. Pearson R.G., Dawson T., Berry P., Harrison P. SPECIES: a spatial evaluation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecological Modelling 2002, 154:289-300.
49. Pearson R.G., Raxworthy C.J., Nakamura M., Townsend Peterson A. Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar. Journal of Biogeography 2007, 34(1):102-117.
50. Perry A.L., Low P.J., Ellis J.R., Reynolds J.D. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 2005, 308:1912-1915.
51. Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., Schapire R.E. Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 2006, 190:231-259.
52. Phillips S.J., Dudík M. Modelling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 2008, 31:161-175.
53. Phillips S.J., Dudik M., Schapire R.E. A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modelling. Proc. of the 21st International Conference on Machine Learning 2004.
54. Reynolds R.W., Smith T.M. A high-resolution global sea surface temperature climatology. Journal of Climate 1995, 8:1571-1583.
55. Ready J., Kaschner K., South A.B., Eastwood P.D., Rees T., Rius J., Agbayani E., Kullander S., Froese R. Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale. Ecological Modelling 2010, 221:467-478.
56. Root T.L., Rosenzweigk C. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 2003, 421:57-60.
57. Sea Around Us Project, <> (last accessed 02/2011). http://www.seaaroundus.org/.
58. Sing, T., Sander, O., Beerenwinkel, N., Lengauer, T., 2007, (last accessed 20.09.11).
59. Southward A.J., Hawkins S.J., Burrows M.T. Seventy years' observations of changes in distribution and abundance of zooplankton and intertidal organisms in the western English channel in relation to rising sea temperature. Journal of Thermal Biology 1995, 20:127-155.
60. Stebbing A., Turk S., Wheeler A., Clarke K.R. Immigration of southern fish species to south-west England linked to warming of the North Atlantic (1960-2001). Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 2002, 82:177-180.
61. Stockwell D.R.B., Peterson A.T. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecological Modelling 2002, 148:1-13.
62. Svenning J., Skov F. Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species. Ecology Letters 2004, 7:565-573.
63. Tsoar A., Allouche O., Steinitz O., Rotem D., Kadmon R. A comparative evaluation of presence-only methods for modelling species distribution. Diversity and Distributions 2007, 13:397-405.
64. Thuiller W., Albert C., Araujo M., Berry P., Cabeza M., Guisan A., et al. Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 2008, 9:137-152.
65. In: Vanden Berge, E. (Ed.), The Ocean Biogeographic Information System: web pages. Available on (last accessed 11/2010). http://www.iobis.org/.
66. Fishes of the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean 1986, UNESCO, Paris. P.J.P. Whitehead, M.L. Bauchot, J.C. Hureau, J. Nielsen, E. Tortonese (Eds.).
67. Wisz M.S., Hijmans R.J., Li J., Peterson A.T., Graham C.H., Guisan A. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Diversity and Distributions 2008, 14:763-773. NCEAS Predicting Species Distribution Working Group.
68. Zheng B., Agresti A. Summarizing the predictive power of a generalized linear model. Statistics in Medicine 2000, 19:1771-1781.