Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records: A test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 34, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 102-117

  Pearson, Richard G ^a   Raxworthy, Christopher J ^a   Nakamura, Miguel ^b   Townsend Peterson, A ^c  

^a DIVISION OF INVERTEBRATE ZOOLOGY   (United States)

^b CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN EN MATEMÁTICAS   (Mexico)

^c UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

Author keywords

Environmental niche modelling; Geckos; Jackknife; Madagascar; Model validation; Small sample size; Species distribution modelling

Indexed keywords

BIOGEOGRAPHY; CRYPSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS; GENETIC ALGORITHM; LIZARD; MODEL VALIDATION; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION; SPECIES OCCURRENCE;

INDIAN OCEAN; INDIAN OCEAN ISLANDS; MADAGASCAR;

GEKKONIDAE; UROPLATUS;

EID: 33845604583     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01594.x     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. Anderson, R.P. & Martínez-Meyer, E. (2004) Modelling species' geographic distributions for preliminary conservation assessments: an implementation with the spiny pocket mice (Heteromys) of Ecuador. Biological Conservation, 116, 167-179.
2. Anderson, R.P., Gómez-Laverde, M. & Peterson, A.T. (2002) Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America: insights from predictive models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 131-141.
3. Anderson, R.P., Lew, D. & Peterson, A.T. (2003) Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecological Modelling, 162, 211-232.
4. Andreone, F., Vences, M. & Randrianirina, J.E. (2001) Patterns of amphibian and reptile diversity at Berera Forest (Sahamalaza Peninsula), NW Madagascar. Italian Journal of Zoology, 68, 235-241.
5. Andriamialisoa, F. & Langrand, O. (2003) The history of zoological exploration in Madagascar. The natural history of Madagascar (ed. by S.M. Goodman and J.P. Benstead), pp. 1-15. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
6. Araújo, M.B. & Pearson, R.G. (2005) Equilibrium of species' distributions with climate. Ecography, 28, 693-695.
7. Araújo, M.B. & Williams, P.H. (2000) Selecting areas for species persistence using occurrence data. Biological Conservation, 96, 331-345.
8. Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. (2005) Validation of species-climate envelope models under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11, 1504-1513.
9. Bauer, A.M. & Russell, A.P. (1989) A systematic review of the genus Uroplatus (Reptilia: Gekkonidae), with comments on its biology. Journal of Natural History, 23, 169-203.
10. Böhme, A. & Ibish, P. (1990) Studien an Uroplatus. I Der Uroplatus-fimbriatus -komplx. Salamandra, 26, 246-259.
11. Böhme, A. & Schönecker, P. (2003) Eine neue art der gattung Uroplatus Duméril, 1805 aus ost-Madagaskar (Reptilia: Squamata: Gekkonidae). Salamandra, 31, 129-138.
12. Bourg, N.A., McShea, W.J. & Gill, D.E. (2005) Putting a CART before the search: successful habitat prediction for a rare forest herb. Ecology, 86, 2793-2804.
13. Boyce, M.S., Vernier, P.R., Nielsen, S.E. & Schmiegelow, F.K.A. (2002) Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecological Modelling, 157, 281-300.
14. Carpenter, G., Gillson, A.N. & Winter, J. (1993) DOMAIN: a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals. Biodiversity and Conservation, 2, 667-680.
15. Donque, G. (1972) The climatology of Madagascar. Biogeography and ecology of Madagascar (ed. by R. Battistini and G. Richard-Vindard), pp. 87-144. W. Junk, The Hague.
16. Elith, J., Graham, C. & the NCEAS Species Distribution Modelling Group (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
17. Engler, R., Guisan, A. & Rechsteiner, L. (2004) An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 263-274.
18. Ferrier, S., Watson, G., Pearce, J. & Drielsma, M. (2002) Extended statistical approaches to modelling spatial pattern in biodiversity in northeast New South Wales. I. Species-level modelling. Biodiversity and Conservation, 11, 2275-2307.
19. Fielding, A.H. & Bell, J.F. (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/ absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38-49.
20. Fleishman, E., MacNally, R. & Fay, J.P. (2002) Validation tests of predictive models of butterfly occurrence based on environmental variables. Conservation Biology, 17, 806-817.
21. Graham, C.H., Ferrier, S., Huettman, F., Moritz, C. & Peterson, A.T. (2004a) New developments in museum-based informatics and applications in biodiversity analysis. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 19, 497-503.
22. Graham, C.H., Ron, S.R., Santos, J.C., Schneider, C.J. & Moritz, C. (2004b) Integrating phylogenies and environmental niche models to explore speciation mechanisms in dendrobatid frogs. Evolution, 58, 1781-1793.
23. Guisan, A. & Thuiller, W. (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.
24. Hampe, A. (2004) Bioclimatic models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11, 469-471.
25. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R. & Friedman, J. (2001) The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction. Springer, New York.
26. Herman, A., Kumar, V.B., Arkin, P.A. & Kousky, J.V. (1997) Objectively determined 10-day African rainfall estimates created for famine early warning systems. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 18, 2147-2159.
27. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
28. Hirzel, A.H., Hausser, J., Chessel, D. & Perrin, N. (2002) Ecological-niche factor analysis: how to compute habitat-suitability map without absence data. Ecology, 83, 2027-2036.
29. Hutchinson, G.E. (1957) Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harbor Symposium on Quantitative Biology, 22, 415-457.
30. Iverson, L.R. & Prasad, A.M. (1998) Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs, 68, 465-485.
31. Karl, J.W., Heglund, P.J., Garton, E.O., Scott, J.M., Wright, M.N. & Hutto, R.L. (2000) Sensitivity of species habitat-relationship model performance to factors of scale. Ecological Applications, 10, 1690-1705.
32. Liu, C., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P. & Pearson, R.G. (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28, 385-393.
33. Loiselle, B.A., Howell, C.A., Graham, C.H., Goerck, J.M., Brooks, T., Smith, K.G. & Williams, P.H. (2003) Avoiding pitfalls of using species distribution models in conservation planning. Conservation Biology, 17, 1591-1600.
34. Luoto, M., Poyry, J., Heikkinen, R.K. & Saarinen, K. (2005) Uncertainty of bioclimate envelope models based on the geographical distribution of species. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 14, 575-584.
35. Martínez-Meyer, E., Peterson, A.T. & Navarro-Siguenza, A.G. (2004) Evolution of seasonal ecological niches in the Passerina buntings (Aves: Cardinalidae). Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, Biological Sciences, 271, 1151-1157.
36. Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A.B. & Kent, J. (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403, 853-858.
37. Nix, H.A. (1986) A biogeographic analysis of Australian Elapid Snakes. Atlas of elapid snakes (ed. by R. Longmore), pp. 4-15. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
38. Ortega-Huerta, M.A. & Peterson, A.T. (2004) Modelling spatial patterns of biodiversity for conservation prioritization in North-eastern Mexico. Diversity and Distributions, 10, 39-54.
39. Pearce, J. & Ferrier, S. (2000) Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling, 133, 225-245.
40. Pearson, R.G. & Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
41. Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P., Berry, P.M. & Harrison, P.A. (2002) SPECIES: a spatial evaluation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecological Modelling, 154, 289-300.
42. Pearson, R.G., Dawson, T.P. & Liu, C. (2004) Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover data. Ecography, 27, 285-298.
43. Pearson, R.G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Martínez-Meyer, E., Brotons, L., McClean, C., Miles, L., Segurado, P., Dawson, T.P. & Lees, D.C. (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1704-1711.
44. Peterson, A.T. (2003) Predicting the geography of species' invasions via ecological niche modelling. Quarterly Review of Biology, 78, 419-433.
45. Peterson, A.T. & Shaw, J.J. (2003) Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in southern Brazil: ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects. International Journal of Parasitology, 33, 919-931.
46. Peterson, A.T., Navarro-Siguenza, A.G. & Benitez-Diaz, H. (1998) The need for continued collecting: a geographic analysis of Mexican bird specimens. Ibis, 140, 288-294.
47. Peterson, A.T., Soberón, J. & Sánchez-Cordero, V. (1999) Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science, 285, 1265-1267.
48. Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modelling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
49. Rakotomalala, D. (2002) Diversitédes reptiles et amphibiens de la Réserve Spéciale de Manongarivo, Madagascar. Boissiera, 59, 339-358.
50. Rakotomalala, D., Raholimavo, E., Talata, P. & Rajeriarison, E. (2001) Les amphibiens et reptiles du Parc National de Ranomafana et de la zone forestiere le reliant au Parc National d'Andringitra. Recherche pour le Développement, Série Sciences Biologiques, 17, 133-163.
51. Raselimanana, A.P. (1998) Inventaire biologique, Forêt d'Andranomay, Anjozorobe: La diversité de la faune de reptiles et d'amphibiens. Recherche pour le Développement, Série Sciences Biologiques, 13, 43-59.
52. Raselimanana, A.P. (1999) Inventaire biologique de la Réserve Spéciale de Pic d'Ivohibe et du couloire forestier qui la relie au Parc National d'Andringitra: L'herpetofauna. Recherche pour le Développement, Série Sciences Biologiques, 15, 81-97.
53. Raxworthy, C.J. (2003) Introduction to the reptiles. The natural history of Madagascar (ed. by S.M. Goodman and J.P. Benstead), pp. 934-949. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
54. Raxworthy, C.J., Forstner, M.R.J. & Nussbaum, R.A. (2002) Chameleon radiation by oceanic dispersal. Nature, 415, 784-787.
55. Raxworthy, C.J., Martínez-Meyer, E., Horning, N., Nussbaum, R.A., Schneider, G.E., Ortega-Huerta, M.A. & Peterson, A.T. (2003) Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar. Nature, 426, 837-841.
56. Reddy, S. & Davalos, L.M. (2003) Geographical sampling bias and its implications for conservation priorities in Africa. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 1719-1727.
57. Reese, G.C., Wilson, K.R., Hoeting, J.A. & Flather, C.H. (2005) Factors affecting species distribution predictions: a simulation modelling experiment. Ecological Applications, 15, 554-564.
58. Rice, N., Martínez-Meyer, E. & Peterson, A.T. (2003) Ecological niche differentiation in the Aphelocoma jays: a phylogenetic perspective. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 80, 369-383.
59. Ricketts, T.H., Dinerstein, E., Boucher, T., Brooks, T.M., Butchart, S.H.M., Hoffmann, M., Lamoreux, J.F., Morrison, J., Parr, M., Pilgrim, J.D., Rodrigues, A.S.L., Sechrest, W., Wallace, G.E., Berlin, K., Bielby, J., Burgess, N.D., Church, D.R., Cox, N., Knox, D., Loucks, C., Luck, G.W., Master, L.L., Moore, R., Naidoo, R., Ridgely, R., Schatz, G.E., Shire, G., Strand, H., Wettengel, W. & Wikramanayake, E. (2005) Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 18497-18501.
60. Roura-Pascual, N., Suarez, A.V., Gomez, C., Pons, P., Touyama, Y., Wild, A.L. & Peterson, A.T. (2004) Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 271, 2527-2534.
61. Segurado, P. & Araújo, M.B. (2004) An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography, 31, 1555-1568.
62. Soberón, J. & Peterson, A.T. (2004) Biodiversity informatics: managing and applying primary biodiversity data. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 359, 689-698.
63. Soberón, J. & Peterson, A.T. (2005) Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics, 2, 1-10.
64. Sprott, D.A. (2000) Statistical inference in science. Springer-Verlag, New York.
65. Stockwell, D.R.B. & Peters, D.P. (1999) The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 13, 143-158.
66. Stockwell, D.R.B. & Peterson, A.T. (2002) Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecological Modelling, 148, 1-13.
67. Storey, M., Mahoney, J.J., Saunders, A.D., Duncan, R.A., Kelly, S.P. & Coffin, M.F. (1995) Timing of hot spot-related volcanism and the breakup of Madagascar and India. Science, 267, 852-855.
68. Svenning, J.-C. & Skov, F. (2004) Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species. Ecology Letters, 7, 565-573.
69. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., Ferreira de Siquira, M., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-148.
70. Thuiller, W., Vaydera, J., Pino, J., Sabate, S., Lavorel, S. & Garcia, C. (2003) Large-scale environmental correlates of forest tree distributions in Catalonia (NE Spain). Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 313-325.
71. Thuiller, W., Araújo, M.B., Pearson, R.G., Whittaker, R.J., Brotons, L. & Lavorel, S. (2004) Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature, 430, 33.
72. Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. & Prentice, I.C. (2005a) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 102, 8245-8250.
73. Thuiller, W., Richardson, D.M., Pysek, P., Midgley, G.F., Hughes, G.O. & Rouget, M. (2005b) Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the global risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale. Global Change Biology, 11, 2234-2250.
74. Xie, P. & Arkin, P.A. (1996) Analysis of global monthly precipitation using gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model prediction. Journal of Climate, 9, 840-858.
75. Zaniewski, A.E., Lahmann, A. & Overton, J.M. (2002) Predicting species spatial distributions using presence-only data: a case study of native New Zealand ferns. Ecological Modelling, 157, 261-280.