Incorporating population-level variation in thermal performance into predictions of geographic range shifts

Integrative and Comparative Biology

Volumn 51, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 733-750

  Angert, Amy L ^a   Sheth, Seema N ^a   Paul, John R ^a  

^a Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; ALTITUDE; AREA UNDER THE CURVE; ARTICLE; BIOTA; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GENETIC VARIABILITY; GENETICS; GENOTYPE; GEOGRAPHY; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; MIMULUS; NORTH AMERICA; PHYSIOLOGY; SEASON; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; STATISTICAL MODEL; TEMPERATURE;

ADAPTATION, BIOLOGICAL; ALTITUDE; AREA UNDER CURVE; BIOTA; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GENETIC VARIATION; GENOTYPE; GEOGRAPHY; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MIMULUS; NORTH AMERICA; SEASONS; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; TEMPERATURE;

MIMULUS CARDINALIS;

EID: 80054898489     PISSN: 15407063     EISSN: 15577023     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/icb/icr048     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Angert AL. 2006. Growth and leaf physiology of monkeyflowers with contrasting altitude ranges. Oecologia 148:183-94. (Pubitemid 43943380)
2. Angert AL, Bradshaw HD, Schemske DW. 2008. Using experimental evolution to investigate geographic ranges in monkeyflowers. Evolution 62:2660-75.
3. Angert AL, Schemske DW. 2005. The evolution of species' distributions: Reciprocal transplants across the elevation ranges of Mimulus cardinalis and M. lewisii. Evolution 59:222-35.
4. Angilletta M.J. 2009. Thermal adaptation: A theoretical and empirical synthesis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
5. Angilletta MJ, Bennett AF, Guderley H, Navas CA, Seebacher F, Wilson RS. 2006. Coadaptation: A unifying principle in evolutionary thermal biology. Physiol Biochem Zool 79:249-68.
6. Atkin OK, Tjoelker MG. 2003. Thermal acclimation and the dynamic response of plant respiration to temperature. Trends Plant Sci 8:343-51. (Pubitemid 36996636)
7. Austin M. 2007. Species distribution models and ecological theory: A critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecol Model 200:1-19. (Pubitemid 44828248)
8. Austin MP, Smith TM, Van Niel KP, Wellington AB. 2009. Physiological responses and statistical models of the environmental niche: A comparative study of two co-occurring Eucalyptus species. J Ecol 97:496-507.
9. Avise JC. 2000. Phylogeography: The history and formation of species. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
10. Beardsley PM, Yen A, Olmstead RG. 2003. AFLP phylogeny of Mimulus section Erythranthe and the evolution of hummingbird pollination. Evolution 57:1397-410. (Pubitemid 36821251)
11. Bennett AF, Lenski RE, Mittler JE. 1992. Evolutionary adaptation to temperature.1. Fitness responses of Escherichia coli to changes in its thermal environment. Evolution 46:16-30.
12. Berry J, Bjorkman O. 1980. Photosynthetic response and adaptation to temperature in higher-plants. Annu Rev Plant Phys 31:491-543.
13. Buckley LB. 2008. Linking traits to energetics and population dynamics to predict lizard ranges in changing environments. Am Nat 171:E1-19.
14. Buckley LB, Urban MC, Angilletta MJ, Crozier LG, Rissler LJ, Sears MW. 2010. Can mechanism inform species' distribution models? Ecol Lett 13:1041-54.
15. Chown SL, Hoffmann AA, Kristensen TN, Angilletta MA Jr., Stenseth NC, Pertoldi C. 2010. Adapting to climate change: A perspective from evolutionary physiology. Clim Res 43:3-15.
16. Chuine I, Rehfeldt GE, Aitken SN. 2006. Height growth determinants and adaptation to temperature in pines: A case study of Pinus contorta and Pinus monticola. Can J Forest Res 36:1059-66. (Pubitemid 44140926)
17. Cooper VS, Bennett AF, Lenski RE. 2001. Evolution of thermal dependence of growth rate of Escherichia coli populations during 20,000 generations in a constant environment. Evolution 55:889-96. (Pubitemid 32550557)
18. Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, Mynsberge AR. 2010. Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations. Science 331:324-7.
19. Davis MB, Shaw RG. 2001. Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science 292:673-9. (Pubitemid 32385531)
20. Decker JP. 1958. Some effects of temperature and carbon dioxide concentration on photosynthesis of Mimulus. Plant Physiol 34:103-6.
21. Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, Ghalambor CK, Haak DC, Martin PR. 2008. Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:6668-72. (Pubitemid 351754564)
22. Durant JM, Hjermann DO, Ottersen G, Stenseth NC. 2007. Climate and the match or mismatch between predator requirements and resource availability. Climate Res 33:271-83. (Pubitemid 351728296)
23. Elith J, Leathwick JR. 2009. Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol S 40:677-97.
24. Fielding AH, Bell JF. 1997. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38-49. (Pubitemid 27376840)
25. Fry JD. 2003. Detecting ecological trade-offs using selection experiments. Ecology 84:1672-8.
26. Futuyma DJ, Moreno G. 1988. The evolution of ecological specialization. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 19:207-33.
27. Gardner JL, Heinsohn R, Joseph L. 2009. Shifting latitudinal clines in avian body size correlate with global warming in Australian passerines. P Roy Soc B-Biol Sci 276:3845-52.
28. Ghalambor CK, Huey RB, Martin PR. 2004. Are mountain passes higher in the tropics? Janzen's hypothesis revisited. Integr Comp Biol 46:5-17.
29. Gilchrist GW. 1996. A quantitative genetic analysis of thermal sensitivity in the locomotor performance curve of Aphidius ervi. Evolution 50:1560-72. (Pubitemid 26351019)
30. Gilman SE, Urban MC, Tewksbury J, Gilchrist GW, Holt RD. 2010. A framework for community interactions under climate change. Trends Ecol Evol 25:325-31.
31. Hadly EA, Spaeth PA, Li C. 2009. Niche conservatism above the species level. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19707-14.
32. Harte J, Ostling A, Green JL, Kinzig A. 2004. Biodiversity conservation - Climate change and extinction risk. Nature 430:1.
33. Hereford J. 2009. A quantitative survey of local adaptation and fitness trade-offs. Am Nat 173:579-88.
34. Hickman JC. 1993. The Jepson manual: Higher plants of California. Berkeley: University of California Press.
35. Hiesey WM, Nobs MA, Björkman O. 1971. Experimental studies on the nature of species. V. Biosystematics, genetics, and physiological ecology of the Erythranthe section of Mimulus. Carnegie Institute of Washington publ. no. 628.
36. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol 25:1965-78. (Pubitemid 43013915)
37. Hijmans RJ, Van Etten J. 2011. raster: Geographic analysis and modeling with raster data. R package version 1.7-29.
38. Hoffmann AA, Anderson A, Hallas R. 2002. Opposing clines for low and high temperature resistance in Drosophila melanogaster. Ecol Lett 5:614-8.
39. Huey RB, Hertz PE. 1984. Is a jack-of-all-temperatures a master of none? Evolution 38:441-4.
40. Huey RB, Stevenson RD. 1979. Integrating thermal physiology and ecology of ectotherms - discussion of approaches. Am Zool 19:357-66.
41. IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York.
42. Izem R, Kingsolver JG. 2005. Variation in continuous reaction norms: Quantifying directions of biological interest. Am Nat 166:277-89. (Pubitemid 41076650)
43. Jackson ST, Betancourt JL, Booth RK, Gray ST. 2009. Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19685-92.
44. Janzen DH. 1967. Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics. Am Nat 101:233-49.
45. Kearney M, Porter W. 2009. Mechanistic niche modelling: Combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecol Lett 12:334-50.
46. Kolbe JJ, Kearney M, Shine R. 2010. Modeling the consequences of thermal trait variation for the cane toad invasion of Australia. Ecol Appl 20:2273-85.
47. La Sorte FA, Jetz W. 2010. Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming. P Roy Soc BBiol Sci 277:3401-10.
48. La Sorte FA, Thompson FR. 2007. Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds. Ecology 88:1803-12. (Pubitemid 351345200)
49. Latimer CAL, Wilson RS, Chenoweth SF. 2011. Quantitative genetic variation for thermal performance curves within and among natural populations of Drosophila serrata. J Evol Biol 24: 965-75.
50. Loarie SR, Carter BE, Hayhoe K, McMahon S, Moe R, Knight CA, Ackerly DD. 2008. Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora. PLoS ONE 3:e2502.
51. Mitchell , Lampert. 2000. Temperature adaptation in a geographically widespread zooplankter, Daphnia magna. J Evol Biol 13:371-82.
52. Moritz C, Patton JL, Conroy CJ, Parra JL, White GC, Beissinger SR. 2008. Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science 322:261-4.
53. Nussey DH, Postma E, Gienapp P, Visser ME. 2005. Selection on heritable phenotypic plasticity in a wild bird population. Science 310:304-6. (Pubitemid 41457194)
54. Palaima A, Spitze K. 2004. Is a jack-of-all-temperatures a master of none? An experimental test with Daphnia pulicaria (Crustacea : Cladocera). Evol Ecol Res 6:215-25. (Pubitemid 38362393)
55. Parmesan C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol S 37:367-669.
56. Paul JR, Sheth SN, Angert AL. Forthcoming 2011. Quantifying the impact of gene flow on phenotypeenvironment mismatch: A demonstration with the scarlet monkeyflower (Mimulus cardinalis). Am Nat.
57. Pearman PB, Randin CF, Broennimann O, Vittoz P, Van Der Knaap WO, Engler R, Le Lay G, Zimmermann NE, Guisan A. 2008. Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia. Ecol Lett 11:357-69. (Pubitemid 351342183)
58. Porter WP, Kearney M. 2009. Size, shape, and the thermal niche of endotherms. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19666-72.
59. R Development Core Team. 2009. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R foundation for Statistical Computing.
60. Ramsey J, Bradshaw HD, Schemske DW. 2003. Components of reproductive isolation between the monkeyflowers Mimulus lewisii and M. cardinalis (Phrymaceae). Evolution 57:1520-34.
61. Rissler LJ, Apodaca JJ. 2007. Adding more ecology into species delimitation: Ecological niche models and phylogeography help define cryptic species in the black salamander (Aneides flavipunctatus). Syst Biol 56:924-42.
62. Stearns SC. 1992. The evolution of life histories. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
63. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, De Siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, et al. 2004. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145-48. (Pubitemid 38094953)
64. Thuiller W, Albert C, Araujo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan A, Hickler T, Midgely GF, Paterson J, Schurr FM, et al. 2008. Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges. Perspect Plant Ecol 9:137-52. (Pubitemid 351192351)
65. Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C. 2009. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106:19637-43.
66. Visser ME. 2008. Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 275:649-59. (Pubitemid 351198039)
67. Wang T, Hamann A, Spittlehouse DL, Aitken SN. 2006. Development of scale-free climate data for western Canada for use in resource management. Int J Climatol 26:383-97. (Pubitemid 43355827)
68. Wethey DS. 2002. Biogeography, competition, and microclimate: The barnacle Chthamalus fragilis in New England. Integr Comp Biol 42:872-80. (Pubitemid 36224951)
69. Willett CS. 2010. Potential fitness trade-offs for thermal tolerance in the intertidal copepod Tigriopus californicus. Evolution 64:2521-34.
70. Williams JW, Jackson ST. 2007. Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Front Ecol Environ 5:475-82. (Pubitemid 350071683)
71. Yamahira K, Kawajiri M, Takeshi K, Irie T. 2007. Inter- And intrapopulation variation in thermal reaction norms for growth rate: Evolution of latitudinal compensation in ectotherms with a genetic constraint. Evolution 61:1577-89. (Pubitemid 47013465)
72. Yates CJ, Elith J, Latimer AM, Le Maitre D, Midgley GF, Schurr FM, West AG. 2010. Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges. Austral Ecol 35:374-91.