메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 35, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 374-391

Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges

Author keywords

Biodiversity hotspot; Climate change risk assessment; Mediterranean type ecosystem; Species distribution modelling

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; AUSTRALIAN KINGDOM; BIODIVERSITY; CAPE FLORISTIC REGION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONSERVATION PLANNING; EMISSION CONTROL; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; GREENHOUSE GAS; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 77954198267     PISSN: 14429985     EISSN: 14429993     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02044.x     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (87)

References (170)
  • 2
    • 77954162827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monitoring the impacts of climate change on biodiversity - the challenge of mega diverse Mediterranean climate ecosystems
    • DOI: 10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02053.x
    • Abbott I, le Maitre D. Monitoring the impacts of climate change on biodiversity - the challenge of mega diverse Mediterranean climate ecosystems. Aust. Ecol 2009, DOI: 10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02053.x
    • (2009) Aust. Ecol
    • Abbott, I.1    le Maitre, D.2
  • 3
    • 13144283719 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2
    • Ainsworth E A, Long S P. What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol. 2005, 165:351-72.
    • (2005) New Phytol. , vol.165 , pp. 351-372
    • Ainsworth, E.A.1    Long, S.P.2
  • 4
    • 33748529602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Five or so challenges for species distribution modelling
    • Araújo M B, Guisan A. Five or so challenges for species distribution modelling. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1677-88.
    • (2006) J. Biogeogr. , vol.33 , pp. 1677-1688
    • Araújo, M.B.1    Guisan, A.2
  • 5
    • 33845633261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
    • Araújo M B, New M. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. TREE 2006, 22:42-7.
    • (2006) TREE , vol.22 , pp. 42-47
    • Araújo, M.B.1    New, M.2
  • 6
  • 8
    • 33748486098 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe
    • Araújo M B, Thuiller W, Pearson R G. Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1712-28.
    • (2006) J. Biogeogr. , vol.33 , pp. 1712-1728
    • Araújo, M.B.1    Thuiller, W.2    Pearson, R.G.3
  • 9
    • 0037202447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling
    • Austin M P. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol. Model. 2002, 157:101-18.
    • (2002) Ecol. Model. , vol.157 , pp. 101-118
    • Austin, M.P.1
  • 10
    • 48749106702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Key findings from the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative and their impact on policy development in Australia
    • Bates B C, Hope P, Ryan B, Smith I, Charles S. Key findings from the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative and their impact on policy development in Australia. Climate Change 2008, 89:339-54.
    • (2008) Climate Change , vol.89 , pp. 339-354
    • Bates, B.C.1    Hope, P.2    Ryan, B.3    Smith, I.4    Charles, S.5
  • 11
    • 31944438830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effective seed dispersal across a fragmented landscape
    • Bacles C F E, Lowe A J, Ennos R A. Effective seed dispersal across a fragmented landscape. Nature 2006, 311:628.
    • (2006) Nature , vol.311 , pp. 628
    • Bacles, C.F.E.1    Lowe, A.J.2    Ennos, R.A.3
  • 12
    • 0036250118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050
    • Bakkenes M, Alkemade J R M, Ihle F, Leemans R, Latour J B. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Glob. Change Biol. 2002, 8:390-407.
    • (2002) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.8 , pp. 390-407
    • Bakkenes, M.1    Alkemade, J.R.M.2    Ihle, F.3    Leemans, R.4    Latour, J.B.5
  • 14
    • 0036786996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change
    • Beaumont L J, Hughes L. Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 2002, 8:954-71.
    • (2002) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.8 , pp. 954-971
    • Beaumont, L.J.1    Hughes, L.2
  • 15
    • 85058203553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species distributions: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species' current and future distributions
    • Beaumont L J, Hughes L, Poulsen M. Predicting species distributions: use of climatic parameters in BIOCLIM and its impact on predictions of species' current and future distributions. Ecol. Model. 2005, 10:250-68.
    • (2005) Ecol. Model. , vol.10 , pp. 250-268
    • Beaumont, L.J.1    Hughes, L.2    Poulsen, M.3
  • 16
    • 34447557035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions
    • Beaumont L J, Pitman A J, Poulsen M, Hughes L. Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Glob. Change Biol. 2007, 13:1368-85.
    • (2007) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.13 , pp. 1368-1385
    • Beaumont, L.J.1    Pitman, A.J.2    Poulsen, M.3    Hughes, L.4
  • 17
    • 0036881561 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland
    • Berry P M, Dawson T P, Harrison P A, Pearson R G. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:453-62.
    • (2002) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.11 , pp. 453-462
    • Berry, P.M.1    Dawson, T.P.2    Harrison, P.A.3    Pearson, R.G.4
  • 18
    • 15244345565 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteacae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa
    • Bomhard B, Richardson D M, Donaldson J S. Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteacae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Glob. Change Biol. 2005, 11:1452-68.
    • (2005) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.11 , pp. 1452-1468
    • Bomhard, B.1    Richardson, D.M.2    Donaldson, J.S.3
  • 19
    • 0035133359 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecology of sprouting in woody plants: the persistence niche
    • Bond W J, Midgley J J. Ecology of sprouting in woody plants: the persistence niche. TREE 2001, 16:45-51.
    • (2001) TREE , vol.16 , pp. 45-51
    • Bond, W.J.1    Midgley, J.J.2
  • 21
    • 13144289499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire
    • Bond W J, Woodward F I, Midgley G F. The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New Phytol. 2004, 165:525-38.
    • (2004) New Phytol. , vol.165 , pp. 525-538
    • Bond, W.J.1    Woodward, F.I.2    Midgley, G.F.3
  • 22
    • 34250869132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity
    • Botkin D B, Saxe H, Sobel M J, Stockwell D R B. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. BioScience 2007, 57:227-36.
    • (2007) BioScience , vol.57 , pp. 227-236
    • Botkin, D.B.1    Saxe, H.2    Sobel, M.J.3    Stockwell, D.R.B.4
  • 24
    • 0027331903 scopus 로고
    • A climatic model for the location of plant species in Florida, USA
    • Box E O, Crumpacker D W, Hardin E D. A climatic model for the location of plant species in Florida, USA. J. Biogeogr. 1993, 20:629-44.
    • (1993) J. Biogeogr. , vol.20 , pp. 629-644
    • Box, E.O.1    Crumpacker, D.W.2    Hardin, E.D.3
  • 25
    • 0032974723 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicted effects of climatic change on distribution of ecologically important native tree and shrub species in Florida
    • Box E O, Crumpacker D W, Hardin E D. Predicted effects of climatic change on distribution of ecologically important native tree and shrub species in Florida. Clim. Change 1999, 41:213-48.
    • (1999) Clim. Change , vol.41 , pp. 213-248
    • Box, E.O.1    Crumpacker, D.W.2    Hardin, E.D.3
  • 26
    • 35248896715 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecosystem assembly and terrestrial carbon balance under elevated CO2
    • Bradley K L, Pregitzer K S. Ecosystem assembly and terrestrial carbon balance under elevated CO2. TREE 2007, 22:538-47.
    • (2007) TREE , vol.22 , pp. 538-547
    • Bradley, K.L.1    Pregitzer, K.S.2
  • 27
    • 0000880525 scopus 로고
    • Some of the evolutionary consequences of being a plant
    • Bradshaw A D. Some of the evolutionary consequences of being a plant. Evol. Biol. 1972, 5:25-47.
    • (1972) Evol. Biol. , vol.5 , pp. 25-47
    • Bradshaw, A.D.1
  • 29
    • 0028974896 scopus 로고
    • Enhanced greenhouse climate change and its potential effect on selected fauna of south-eastern Australia: a trend analysis
    • Brereton R, Bennett S, Mansergh I. Enhanced greenhouse climate change and its potential effect on selected fauna of south-eastern Australia: a trend analysis. Biol. Conserv. 1995, 72:339-54.
    • (1995) Biol. Conserv. , vol.72 , pp. 339-354
    • Brereton, R.1    Bennett, S.2    Mansergh, I.3
  • 30
    • 27244447213 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought
    • Breshears D D, Cobb N S, Rich P M. Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 2005, 102:15144-8.
    • (2005) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.102 , pp. 15144-15148
    • Breshears, D.D.1    Cobb, N.S.2    Rich, P.M.3
  • 32
    • 0030930861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change
    • Brown J H, Valone T J, Curtin C G. Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 1997, 94:9729-33.
    • (1997) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.94 , pp. 9729-9733
    • Brown, J.H.1    Valone, T.J.2    Curtin, C.G.3
  • 33
    • 34249026692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Phylogeography provides an evolutionary context for the conservation of a diverse and ancient flora
    • Byrne M. Phylogeography provides an evolutionary context for the conservation of a diverse and ancient flora. Aust. J. Bot. 2007, 55:316-25.
    • (2007) Aust. J. Bot. , vol.55 , pp. 316-325
    • Byrne, M.1
  • 34
    • 0033427217 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Divergence in the chloroplast genome and nuclear rDNA of the rare Western Australian plant Lambertia orbifolia Gardner (Proteaceae)
    • Byrne M, Macdonald B, Coates D. Divergence in the chloroplast genome and nuclear rDNA of the rare Western Australian plant Lambertia orbifolia Gardner (Proteaceae). Mol. Ecol. 1999, 8:1789-96.
    • (1999) Mol. Ecol. , vol.8 , pp. 1789-1796
    • Byrne, M.1    Macdonald, B.2    Coates, D.3
  • 35
    • 53749086720 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Birth of a biome: insights into the assembly and maintenance of the Australian arid zone biota
    • Byrne M, Yeates D K, Joseph L. Birth of a biome: insights into the assembly and maintenance of the Australian arid zone biota. Mol. Ecol. 2008, 17:4398-417.
    • (2008) Mol. Ecol. , vol.17 , pp. 4398-4417
    • Byrne, M.1    Yeates, D.K.2    Joseph, L.3
  • 36
    • 34548035629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction
    • Cai W, Cowan T. SAM and regional rainfall in IPCC AR4 models: Can anthropogenic forcing account for southwest Western Australian winter rainfall reduction. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006, 33:L24708.
    • (2006) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.33
    • Cai, W.1    Cowan, T.2
  • 37
    • 33845578187 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emus as non-standard seed dispersers and their potential for long-distance dispersal
    • Calviño-Cancela M, Dunn R R, van Etten E, Lamont B B. Emus as non-standard seed dispersers and their potential for long-distance dispersal. Ecography 2006, 29:632-40.
    • (2006) Ecography , vol.29 , pp. 632-640
    • Calviño-Cancela, M.1    Dunn, R.R.2    van Etten, E.3    Lamont, B.B.4
  • 38
    • 35348988251 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effect of GCM bias on downscaled precipitation and runoff projections for the Serpentine Catchment, Western Australia
    • Charles S P, Bari M A, Kitsios A, Bates B C. Effect of GCM bias on downscaled precipitation and runoff projections for the Serpentine Catchment, Western Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 2007, 27:1673-90.
    • (2007) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.27 , pp. 1673-1690
    • Charles, S.P.1    Bari, M.A.2    Kitsios, A.3    Bates, B.C.4
  • 39
    • 0033927186 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Defining conservation units in a rich and fragmented flora: implications for the management of genetic resources and evolutionary processes in south-west Western Australian plants
    • Coates D J. Defining conservation units in a rich and fragmented flora: implications for the management of genetic resources and evolutionary processes in south-west Western Australian plants. Aust. J. Bot. 2000, 48:329-39.
    • (2000) Aust. J. Bot. , vol.48 , pp. 329-339
    • Coates, D.J.1
  • 40
    • 0032713481 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Genetic divergence and the mating system in the endangered and geographically restricted species Lambertia orbifolia Gardner (Proteaceae)
    • Coates D J, Hamley V L. Genetic divergence and the mating system in the endangered and geographically restricted species Lambertia orbifolia Gardner (Proteaceae). Heredity 1999, 83:418-27.
    • (1999) Heredity , vol.83 , pp. 418-427
    • Coates, D.J.1    Hamley, V.L.2
  • 41
    • 0042768181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolutionary patterns and genetic structure in localized and widespread species in the Stylidium caricifolium complex (Stylidiaceae)
    • Coates D J, Carstairs S, Hamley V L. Evolutionary patterns and genetic structure in localized and widespread species in the Stylidium caricifolium complex (Stylidiaceae). Am. J. Bot. 2003, 90:997-1008.
    • (2003) Am. J. Bot. , vol.90 , pp. 997-1008
    • Coates, D.J.1    Carstairs, S.2    Hamley, V.L.3
  • 42
    • 0001262894 scopus 로고
    • The influence of interspecific competition and other factors on the distribution of the barnacle Chthamalus stellatus
    • Connell J H. The influence of interspecific competition and other factors on the distribution of the barnacle Chthamalus stellatus. Ecology 1961, 42:710-32.
    • (1961) Ecology , vol.42 , pp. 710-732
    • Connell, J.H.1
  • 43
    • 0028161781 scopus 로고
    • Taxonomic, edaphic and biological aspects on narrow plant endemism on matched sites in Mediterranean South Africa and Australia
    • Cowling R M, Witkowski E T F, Milewski A V, Newbey K R. Taxonomic, edaphic and biological aspects on narrow plant endemism on matched sites in Mediterranean South Africa and Australia. J. Biogeogr. 1994, 22:651-64.
    • (1994) J. Biogeogr. , vol.22 , pp. 651-664
    • Cowling, R.M.1    Witkowski, E.T.F.2    Milewski, A.V.3    Newbey, K.R.4
  • 45
    • 28244438049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rainfall reliability, a neglected factor in explaining convergence and divergence if plant traits in fire-prone mediterranean-climate ecosystems
    • Cowling R M, Ojeda F, Lamont B B, Rundel P W, Lechmere-Oertel R. Rainfall reliability, a neglected factor in explaining convergence and divergence if plant traits in fire-prone mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2005, 14:509-19.
    • (2005) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.14 , pp. 509-519
    • Cowling, R.M.1    Ojeda, F.2    Lamont, B.B.3    Rundel, P.W.4    Lechmere-Oertel, R.5
  • 46
    • 26644475023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of climate change on birds
    • Crick H Q P. The impact of climate change on birds. Ibis 2004, 146:48-56.
    • (2004) Ibis , vol.146 , pp. 48-56
    • Crick, H.Q.P.1
  • 47
    • 14844337511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pre-industrial-potential and Last Glacial Maximum global vegetation simulated with a coupled climate-biosphere model: diagnosis of bioclimatic relationships
    • Crucifix M, Betts R A, Hewitt C D. Pre-industrial-potential and Last Glacial Maximum global vegetation simulated with a coupled climate-biosphere model: diagnosis of bioclimatic relationships. Glob. Planet. Change 2005, 45:295-312.
    • (2005) Glob. Planet. Change , vol.45 , pp. 295-312
    • Crucifix, M.1    Betts, R.A.2    Hewitt, C.D.3
  • 48
    • 0034896099 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implications of climatic warming for conservation of native trees and shrubs in Florida
    • Crumpacker D W, Box E O, Hardin E D. Implications of climatic warming for conservation of native trees and shrubs in Florida. Conserv. Biol. 2001, 15:1008-20.
    • (2001) Conserv. Biol. , vol.15 , pp. 1008-1020
    • Crumpacker, D.W.1    Box, E.O.2    Hardin, E.D.3
  • 49
    • 37349094083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate Change in Australia
    • CSIRO, Technical Report 2007. CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
    • Climate Change in Australia. 2007, CSIRO, Technical Report 2007. CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
    • (2007)
  • 50
    • 0035957694 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change
    • Davis M B, Shaw R G. Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change. Science 2001, 292:673-9.
    • (2001) Science , vol.292 , pp. 673-679
    • Davis, M.B.1    Shaw, R.G.2
  • 51
    • 0032546016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming
    • Davis A J, Jenkinson L S, Lawton J L, Shorrocks B, Wood S. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 1998, 391:783-6.
    • (1998) Nature , vol.391 , pp. 783-786
    • Davis, A.J.1    Jenkinson, L.S.2    Lawton, J.L.3    Shorrocks, B.4    Wood, S.5
  • 52
    • 3242696239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Palynological evidence for aridity events and vegetation change during the middle Pliocene, a warm period in southwestern Australia
    • Dodson J R, Macphail N K. Palynological evidence for aridity events and vegetation change during the middle Pliocene, a warm period in southwestern Australia. Glob. Planet. Change 2004, 41:285-307.
    • (2004) Glob. Planet. Change , vol.41 , pp. 285-307
    • Dodson, J.R.1    Macphail, N.K.2
  • 53
    • 0036794196 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of habitat fragmentation on pollinator diversity and plant reproductive success in Renosterveld shrublands of South Africa
    • Donaldson J, Nänni I, Zachariades C, Kemper J. Effects of habitat fragmentation on pollinator diversity and plant reproductive success in Renosterveld shrublands of South Africa. Conserv. Biol. 2002, 16:1267-76.
    • (2002) Conserv. Biol. , vol.16 , pp. 1267-1276
    • Donaldson, J.1    Nänni, I.2    Zachariades, C.3    Kemper, J.4
  • 54
    • 33645917058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurence data
    • Elith J, Graham C H, Anderson R P. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurence data. Ecography 2006, 29:129-51.
    • (2006) Ecography , vol.29 , pp. 129-151
    • Elith, J.1    Graham, C.H.2    Anderson, R.P.3
  • 56
    • 43349092796 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia
    • Fitzpatrick M C, Gove A D, Sanders N J, Dunn R R. Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia. Glob. Change Biol. 2008, 14:1-16.
    • (2008) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.14 , pp. 1-16
    • Fitzpatrick, M.C.1    Gove, A.D.2    Sanders, N.J.3    Dunn, R.R.4
  • 57
    • 34547915573 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags
    • Foden W, Midgley G F, Bond W J. A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags. Divers. Distrib. 2007, 13:645-53.
    • (2007) Divers. Distrib. , vol.13 , pp. 645-653
    • Foden, W.1    Midgley, G.F.2    Bond, W.J.3
  • 59
    • 84867147419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining species distribution patterns through hierarchical modeling
    • Gelfand A E, Silander J A, Wu S. Explaining species distribution patterns through hierarchical modeling. Bayesian Anal. 2006, 1:41-92.
    • (2006) Bayesian Anal. , vol.1 , pp. 41-92
    • Gelfand, A.E.1    Silander, J.A.2    Wu, S.3
  • 61
    • 0034494869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forest of south-western Australia
    • Gioia P, Pigott P. Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forest of south-western Australia. J. Biogeogr. 2002, 27:1065-78.
    • (2002) J. Biogeogr. , vol.27 , pp. 1065-1078
    • Gioia, P.1    Pigott, P.2
  • 62
    • 3042704819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rooting depth and plant water relations explain species distribution patterns within a sandplain landscape
    • Groom P K. Rooting depth and plant water relations explain species distribution patterns within a sandplain landscape. Funct. Plant Biol. 2004, 31:423-8.
    • (2004) Funct. Plant Biol. , vol.31 , pp. 423-428
    • Groom, P.K.1
  • 63
    • 24344493920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
    • Guisan A, Thuiller W. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett. 2005, 8:993-1009.
    • (2005) Ecol. Lett. , vol.8 , pp. 993-1009
    • Guisan, A.1    Thuiller, W.2
  • 64
    • 0034610199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology
    • Guisan A, Zimmermann N E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 2000, 135:147-86.
    • (2000) Ecol. Model. , vol.135 , pp. 147-186
    • Guisan, A.1    Zimmermann, N.E.2
  • 65
    • 24144434307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide
    • Hampe H. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2004, 13:469-70.
    • (2004) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.13 , pp. 469-470
    • Hampe, H.1
  • 66
    • 0036185207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate
    • Hannah L, Midgley G F, Lovejoy T. Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate. Conserv. Biol. 2002a, 16:264-8.
    • (2002) Conserv. Biol. , vol.16 , pp. 264-268
    • Hannah, L.1    Midgley, G.F.2    Lovejoy, T.3
  • 69
    • 33746917488 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa
    • Hewitson B C, Crane R G. Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int. J. Climatol. 2006, 26:1315-37.
    • (2006) Int. J. Climatol. , vol.26 , pp. 1315-1337
    • Hewitson, B.C.1    Crane, R.G.2
  • 71
    • 27644522857 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Genetic and evolutionary impacts of climate change
    • Lovejoy T E, Hannah L. eds, Yale University Press, New Haven & London
    • Hewitt G M, Nichols R A. Genetic and evolutionary impacts of climate change. Climate Change and Biodiversity 2005, 176-92. Lovejoy T E, Hannah L. eds, Yale University Press, New Haven & London
    • (2005) Climate Change and Biodiversity , pp. 176-192
    • Hewitt, G.M.1    Nichols, R.A.2
  • 72
    • 0344364585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are long-distance dispersal events in plants usually caused by nonstandard means of dispersal?
    • Higgins S I, Nathan R, Cain M L. Are long-distance dispersal events in plants usually caused by nonstandard means of dispersal? Ecology 2003a, 84:1945-56.
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , pp. 1945-1956
    • Higgins, S.I.1    Nathan, R.2    Cain, M.L.3
  • 73
    • 0038390091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment
    • Higgins S I, Clark J S, Nathan R. Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment. J. Ecol. 2003b, 91:341-7.
    • (2003) J. Ecol. , vol.91 , pp. 341-347
    • Higgins, S.I.1    Clark, J.S.2    Nathan, R.3
  • 74
    • 0038276039 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating plant migration rates under habitat loss and fragmentation
    • Higgins S I, Lavorel S, Revilla E. Estimating plant migration rates under habitat loss and fragmentation. Oikos 2003c, 101:354-66.
    • (2003) Oikos , vol.101 , pp. 354-366
    • Higgins, S.I.1    Lavorel, S.2    Revilla, E.3
  • 75
    • 44949089797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Costs of persistence and the spread of competing seeders and sprouters
    • Higgins S I, Flores O, Schurr F M. Costs of persistence and the spread of competing seeders and sprouters. J. Ecol. 2008, 96:679-86.
    • (2008) J. Ecol. , vol.96 , pp. 679-686
    • Higgins, S.I.1    Flores, O.2    Schurr, F.M.3
  • 76
    • 0033594877 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in butterfly's range margin
    • Hill J, Thomas C D, Huntley B. Climate and habitat availability determine 20th century changes in butterfly's range margin. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. 1999, 266:1197-206.
    • (1999) Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. , vol.266 , pp. 1197-1206
    • Hill, J.1    Thomas, C.D.2    Huntley, B.3
  • 77
    • 0034862880 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impacts of landscape structure on butterfly range expansion
    • Hill J, Collingham Y C, Thomas C D. Impacts of landscape structure on butterfly range expansion. Ecol. Lett. 2001, 4:313-21.
    • (2001) Ecol. Lett. , vol.4 , pp. 313-321
    • Hill, J.1    Collingham, Y.C.2    Thomas, C.D.3
  • 78
    • 0037159385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warmings: implications for future ranges
    • Hill J, Thomas C D, Fox R. Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warmings: implications for future ranges. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. 2002, 269:2163-71.
    • (2002) Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. , vol.269 , pp. 2163-2171
    • Hill, J.1    Thomas, C.D.2    Fox, R.3
  • 80
    • 0242287127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Turner Review No. 7 Impacts of ecosystem fragmentation on plant populations: generalizing the idiosyncratic
    • Hobbs R J, Yates C J. Turner Review No. 7 Impacts of ecosystem fragmentation on plant populations: generalizing the idiosyncratic. Aust. J. Bot. 2003, 51:471-88.
    • (2003) Aust. J. Bot. , vol.51 , pp. 471-488
    • Hobbs, R.J.1    Yates, C.J.2
  • 81
    • 33645963763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Shifts in the synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia
    • Hope P K, Drosdowsky W, Nicholls N. Shifts in the synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia. Clim. Dyn. 2006, 26:751-64.
    • (2006) Clim. Dyn. , vol.26 , pp. 751-764
    • Hope, P.K.1    Drosdowsky, W.2    Nicholls, N.3
  • 82
    • 8144225550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Southwest Australian Florisitic Region: evolution and conservation of a global hotspot of biodiversity
    • Hopper S D, Gioia P. The Southwest Australian Florisitic Region: evolution and conservation of a global hotspot of biodiversity. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 2004, 35:623-50.
    • (2004) Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. , vol.35 , pp. 623-650
    • Hopper, S.D.1    Gioia, P.2
  • 83
    • 0000429287 scopus 로고
    • Floristic patterns
    • Pate J S, Beard J S. eds, University of Western Australia Press, Nedlands
    • Hopkins A J M, Griffin E A. Floristic patterns. Kwongan - Plant Life of the Sandplain 1984, 69-83. Pate J S, Beard J S. eds, University of Western Australia Press, Nedlands
    • (1984) Kwongan - Plant Life of the Sandplain , pp. 69-83
    • Hopkins, A.J.M.1    Griffin, E.A.2
  • 85
    • 0029667987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climatic range sizes of Eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change
    • Hughes L, Cawsey E M, Westoby M. Climatic range sizes of Eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change. Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. Lett. 1996, 5:23-9.
    • (1996) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. Lett. , vol.5 , pp. 23-29
    • Hughes, L.1    Cawsey, E.M.2    Westoby, M.3
  • 88
    • 9944253730 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emissions Scenarios
    • Nakicenovic N, Swart R. IPCC, eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Emissions Scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, 570. Nakicenovic NSwart R. IPCC, eds, pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • (2000) Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , pp. 570
  • 90
    • 49749102754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates
    • in press, doi: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.05457.x
    • Kearney M, Phillips B L, Tracy C R, Christian K A, Betts G, Porter W P. Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates. Ecography 2008, in press, doi: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.05457.x
    • (2008) Ecography
    • Kearney, M.1    Phillips, B.L.2    Tracy, C.R.3    Christian, K.A.4    Betts, G.5    Porter, W.P.6
  • 91
    • 0005280093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fire regimes in Australian heathlands and their effects on plants and animals
    • Bradstock R A, Williams J E, Gill A M. eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Keith D A, McCaw W L, Whelan R J. Fire regimes in Australian heathlands and their effects on plants and animals. Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of A Continent 2002, 199-237. Bradstock R A, Williams J E, Gill A M. In, eds, pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • (2002) Flammable Australia: The Fire Regimes and Biodiversity of A Continent , pp. 199-237
    • Keith, D.A.1    McCaw, W.L.2    Whelan, R.J.3
  • 92
    • 51549090248 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models
    • doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049
    • Keith D A, Akçakaya H R, Thuiller W. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biol. Lett. 2008, doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049
    • (2008) Biol. Lett.
    • Keith, D.A.1    Akçakaya, H.R.2    Thuiller, W.3
  • 93
    • 0032983765 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fragmentation of South African renosterveld shrublands: effects on plant community structure and conservation implications
    • Kemper J, Cowling R M, Richardson D M. Fragmentation of South African renosterveld shrublands: effects on plant community structure and conservation implications. Biol. Conserv. 1999, 90:103-11.
    • (1999) Biol. Conserv. , vol.90 , pp. 103-111
    • Kemper, J.1    Cowling, R.M.2    Richardson, D.M.3
  • 95
    • 0141923409 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological impacts of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on terrestrial ecosystems
    • Körner C. Ecological impacts of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on terrestrial ecosystems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A. 2003, 361:2023-41.
    • (2003) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A. , vol.361 , pp. 2023-2041
    • Körner, C.1
  • 97
    • 24644500184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neutral ecological theory reveals isolation and rapid speciation in a biodiversity hotspot
    • Latimer A M, Silander J A, Cowling R M. Neutral ecological theory reveals isolation and rapid speciation in a biodiversity hotspot. Science 2005, 309:1722-5.
    • (2005) Science , vol.309 , pp. 1722-1725
    • Latimer, A.M.1    Silander, J.A.2    Cowling, R.M.3
  • 98
    • 64749087720 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experimental biogeography: the role of environmental gradients in the high geographic diversity of Cape Proteaceae
    • Latimer A M, Silander J A, Rebelo A G, Midgley G F. Experimental biogeography: the role of environmental gradients in the high geographic diversity of Cape Proteaceae. Oecologia 2009, 160:151-62.
    • (2009) Oecologia , vol.160 , pp. 151-162
    • Latimer, A.M.1    Silander, J.A.2    Rebelo, A.G.3    Midgley, G.F.4
  • 99
    • 33745830853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability
    • Lawler J L, White D, Neilson R P, Blaustein A R. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability. Glob. Change Biol. 2006, 12:1568-84.
    • (2006) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.12 , pp. 1568-1584
    • Lawler, J.L.1    White, D.2    Neilson, R.P.3    Blaustein, A.R.4
  • 100
    • 0032451492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are New Zealand's Nothofagus species in equilibrium with their environment?
    • Leathwick J R. Are New Zealand's Nothofagus species in equilibrium with their environment? J. Veg. Sci. 1998, 9:719-32.
    • (1998) J. Veg. Sci. , vol.9 , pp. 719-732
    • Leathwick, J.R.1
  • 101
    • 0034803153 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Competitive interactions between tree species in New Zealand's old-growth indigenous forests
    • Leathwick J R, Austin M P. Competitive interactions between tree species in New Zealand's old-growth indigenous forests. Ecology 2001, 82:2560-73.
    • (2001) Ecology , vol.82 , pp. 2560-2573
    • Leathwick, J.R.1    Austin, M.P.2
  • 102
    • 0030368244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting changes in the composition of New Zealand's indigenous forests in response to global warming: a modelling approach
    • Leathwick J R, Whitehead D, Mcleod M. Predicting changes in the composition of New Zealand's indigenous forests in response to global warming: a modelling approach. Environ. Softw. 1996, 11:81-90.
    • (1996) Environ. Softw. , vol.11 , pp. 81-90
    • Leathwick, J.R.1    Whitehead, D.2    Mcleod, M.3
  • 103
    • 33646576236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis
    • Lewis O T. Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. 2006, 361:163-71.
    • (2006) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. , vol.361 , pp. 163-171
    • Lewis, O.T.1
  • 104
    • 0038158142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The radiation of the Cape flora, southern Africa
    • Linder H P. The radiation of the Cape flora, southern Africa. Biol. Rev. 2003, 78:597-638.
    • (2003) Biol. Rev. , vol.78 , pp. 597-638
    • Linder, H.P.1
  • 106
    • 0003435388 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vegetation patterns in the northern jarrah forest of Western Australia in relation to dieback history and the current distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi
    • PhD Thesis, Murdoch University, Western Australia
    • McDougall K L. Vegetation patterns in the northern jarrah forest of Western Australia in relation to dieback history and the current distribution of Phytophthora cinnamomi. 1996, PhD Thesis, Murdoch University, Western Australia
    • (1996)
    • McDougall, K.L.1
  • 107
    • 34249301439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Namaqualand's climate: recent historical changes and future scenarios
    • MacKellar N C, Hewitson B C, Tadross M A. Namaqualand's climate: recent historical changes and future scenarios. J. Arid Environ. 2007, 70:604-14.
    • (2007) J. Arid Environ. , vol.70 , pp. 604-614
    • MacKellar, N.C.1    Hewitson, B.C.2    Tadross, M.A.3
  • 108
    • 34249037328 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Patterns in the biodiversity of terrestrial environments in the Western Australian wheatbelt
    • McKenzie N L, Gibson N, Keighery G J, Rolfe J K. Patterns in the biodiversity of terrestrial environments in the Western Australian wheatbelt. Rec. WA. Mus. Suppl. 2004, 67:293-355.
    • (2004) Rec. WA. Mus. Suppl. , vol.67 , pp. 293-355
    • McKenzie, N.L.1    Gibson, N.2    Keighery, G.J.3    Rolfe, J.K.4
  • 109
    • 77951174478 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Encroachment of sandplain heathland (Kwongan) by Allocasuarina huegeliana in the Western Australian wheatbelt: the role of herbivores, fire and other factors
    • PhD Thesis, Murdoch University, Western Australia
    • Maher K A. Encroachment of sandplain heathland (Kwongan) by Allocasuarina huegeliana in the Western Australian wheatbelt: the role of herbivores, fire and other factors. 2007, PhD Thesis, Murdoch University, Western Australia
    • (2007)
    • Maher, K.A.1
  • 110
    • 0026526650 scopus 로고
    • Colonisation of Cape Fynbos communities by forest species
    • Manders P T, Richardson D M. Colonisation of Cape Fynbos communities by forest species. For. Ecol. Manage. 1992, 48:277-93.
    • (1992) For. Ecol. Manage. , vol.48 , pp. 277-293
    • Manders, P.T.1    Richardson, D.M.2
  • 111
    • 33748528104 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conservation of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-recent transition
    • Martínez-Meyer E, Peterson A T. Conservation of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-recent transition. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1779-89.
    • (2006) J. Biogeogr. , vol.33 , pp. 1779-1789
    • Martínez-Meyer, E.1    Peterson, A.T.2
  • 112
    • 60349105304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Microrefugia and macro ecology
    • Lovejoy T E, Hannah L. eds, Yale University Press, New Haven & London
    • McGlone M, Clark J. Microrefugia and macro ecology. Climate Change and Biodiversity 2005, 157-9. Lovejoy T E, Hannah L. In, eds, pp, Yale University Press, New Haven & London
    • (2005) Climate Change and Biodiversity , pp. 157-159
    • McGlone, M.1    Clark, J.2
  • 113
    • 1942473055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of vertebrates in North Queensland
    • Meynecke J O. Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of vertebrates in North Queensland. Ecol. Model. 2004, 174:347-57.
    • (2004) Ecol. Model. , vol.174 , pp. 347-357
    • Meynecke, J.O.1
  • 114
    • 0036881087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot
    • Midgley G F, Hannah L, Millar D, Rutherford M C, Powrie L W. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:445-51.
    • (2002) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.11 , pp. 445-451
    • Midgley, G.F.1    Hannah, L.2    Millar, D.3    Rutherford, M.C.4    Powrie, L.W.5
  • 115
    • 0038062625 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region
    • Midgley G F, Hannah L, Millar D, Thuiller W, Booth A. Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region. Biol. Conserv. 2003, 112:87-97.
    • (2003) Biol. Conserv. , vol.112 , pp. 87-97
    • Midgley, G.F.1    Hannah, L.2    Millar, D.3    Thuiller, W.4    Booth, A.5
  • 116
    • 34249331028 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Late Tertiary and Quaternary climate change and centrs of endemism in the southern African flora
    • Purvis A, Gittleman J L, Brooks T. eds, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Midgley G F, Reeves G, Klak C. Late Tertiary and Quaternary climate change and centrs of endemism in the southern African flora. Phylogeny and Conservation 2005, 230-42. Purvis A, Gittleman J L, Brooks T. In, eds, pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • (2005) Phylogeny and Conservation , pp. 230-242
    • Midgley, G.F.1    Reeves, G.2    Klak, C.3
  • 117
    • 38849138370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Plant species migration as a key uncertainty in predicting future impacts of climate change on ecosystems: progress and challenges
    • Canadell J G, Pataki D E, Pitelka L F. eds, Springer, Berlin
    • Midgley G F, Thuiller W, Higgins S I. Plant species migration as a key uncertainty in predicting future impacts of climate change on ecosystems: progress and challenges. Terrestrial Ecosystems in A Changing World 2007, 129-37. Canadell J G, Pataki D E, Pitelka L F. In, eds, pp., Springer, Berlin
    • (2007) Terrestrial Ecosystems in A Changing World , pp. 129-137
    • Midgley, G.F.1    Thuiller, W.2    Higgins, S.I.3
  • 118
    • 0028977489 scopus 로고
    • Spatial and temporal patterns in the emergence and survival of seedlings in arid Karoo shrubland
    • Milton S J. Spatial and temporal patterns in the emergence and survival of seedlings in arid Karoo shrubland. J. Appl. Ecol. 1995, 32:145-56.
    • (1995) J. Appl. Ecol. , vol.32 , pp. 145-156
    • Milton, S.J.1
  • 120
    • 71949129517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Succulent Karoo biome
    • Mucina L, Rutherford M C. eds, Strelitzia 19, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Pretoria
    • Mucina L, Jürgens N, le Roux A. Succulent Karoo biome. The Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland 2006, 221-323. Mucina L, Rutherford M C, eds, Strelitzia 19, pp., South African National Biodiversity Institute, Pretoria
    • (2006) The Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland , pp. 221-323
    • Mucina, L.1    Jürgens, N.2    le Roux, A.3
  • 121
    • 38149013386 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland
    • eds, South African National Biodiversity Institute
    • Mucina L, Rutherford M C. The vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. Strelitzia 2006, 19. eds, South African National Biodiversity Institute
    • (2006) Strelitzia , vol.19
    • Mucina, L.1    Rutherford, M.C.2
  • 122
    • 13144279367 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lethal effects of experimental warming approximating a future climate scenario on Southern African quartz-field succulents: a pilot study
    • Musil C F, Schmiedel U, Midgley G F. Lethal effects of experimental warming approximating a future climate scenario on Southern African quartz-field succulents: a pilot study. New Phytol. 2005, 165:539-47.
    • (2005) New Phytol. , vol.165 , pp. 539-547
    • Musil, C.F.1    Schmiedel, U.2    Midgley, G.F.3
  • 124
    • 24144474663 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change
    • Neilson R P, Pitelka L F, Solomon A F. Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change. BioScience 2005, 55:749-59.
    • (2005) BioScience , vol.55 , pp. 749-759
    • Neilson, R.P.1    Pitelka, L.F.2    Solomon, A.F.3
  • 125
    • 0032436095 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Soil moisture dynamics of calcareous grassland under elevated CO2
    • Niklaus P A, Spinnler D, Körner C. Soil moisture dynamics of calcareous grassland under elevated CO2. Oecologia 1998, 117:201-8.
    • (1998) Oecologia , vol.117 , pp. 201-208
    • Niklaus, P.A.1    Spinnler, D.2    Körner, C.3
  • 126
    • 33748994063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change
    • Parmesan C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2006, 37:637-9.
    • (2006) Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. , vol.37 , pp. 637-639
    • Parmesan, C.1
  • 127
    • 33646242418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling distribution and abundance with presence-only data
    • Pearce J L, Boyce M S. Modelling distribution and abundance with presence-only data. J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43:405-12.
    • (2006) J. Appl. Ecol. , vol.43 , pp. 405-412
    • Pearce, J.L.1    Boyce, M.S.2
  • 128
    • 0037984541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plain birds: generalities on biodiversity consequences
    • Peterson A T. Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plain birds: generalities on biodiversity consequences. Glob. Change Biol. 2003, 9:647-55.
    • (2003) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.9 , pp. 647-655
    • Peterson, A.T.1
  • 129
    • 0002371584 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods
    • Peterson A T, Ball L G, Cohoon K P. Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods. Ibis 2002a, 144:27-32.
    • (2002) Ibis , vol.144 , pp. 27-32
    • Peterson, A.T.1    Ball, L.G.2    Cohoon, K.P.3
  • 130
    • 0037061522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios
    • Peterson A T, Ortega-Huerta M A, Bartley J. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 2002b, 416:626-9.
    • (2002) Nature , vol.416 , pp. 626-629
    • Peterson, A.T.1    Ortega-Huerta, M.A.2    Bartley, J.3
  • 133
    • 33644642526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and the migration capacity of species
    • Pearson R G. Climate change and the migration capacity of species. TREE 2006, 21:111-13.
    • (2006) TREE , vol.21 , pp. 111-113
    • Pearson, R.G.1
  • 134
    • 0141856572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful
    • Pearson R G, Dawson T P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful. Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2003, 12:361-71.
    • (2003) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.12 , pp. 361-371
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Dawson, T.P.2
  • 135
    • 24144434307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bioclimate models what they detect and what they hide - response to H (2004)
    • Pearson R G, Dawson T P. Bioclimate models what they detect and what they hide - response to H (2004). Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2004, 13:469-70.
    • (2004) Global. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.13 , pp. 469-470
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Dawson, T.P.2
  • 136
    • 33748501576 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction
    • Pearson R G, Thuiller W, Araújo M B. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1704-11.
    • (2006) J. Biogeogr. , vol.33 , pp. 1704-1711
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Thuiller, W.2    Araújo, M.B.3
  • 137
    • 34648846197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of climate models' simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Australia using probability density funcions
    • Perkins S E, Pitman A J, Holbrook N J, McAneney J. Evaluation of climate models' simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Australia using probability density funcions. J. Clim. 2007, 20:4356-76.
    • (2007) J. Clim. , vol.20 , pp. 4356-4376
    • Perkins, S.E.1    Pitman, A.J.2    Holbrook, N.J.3    McAneney, J.4
  • 138
    • 34648846197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of the AR4 model's simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions
    • Pickett S E, Pitman A J, Holbrook N J, McAneney J. Evaluation of the AR4 model's simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. J. Clim. 2004, 20:4356-76.
    • (2004) J. Clim. , vol.20 , pp. 4356-4376
    • Pickett, S.E.1    Pitman, A.J.2    Holbrook, N.J.3    McAneney, J.4
  • 139
    • 41149101864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Shallow-soil endemics: adaptive advantages and constraints of a specialized root-system morphology
    • Poot P, Lambers H. Shallow-soil endemics: adaptive advantages and constraints of a specialized root-system morphology. New Phytol. 2008, 178:371-81.
    • (2008) New Phytol. , vol.178 , pp. 371-381
    • Poot, P.1    Lambers, H.2
  • 143
    • 43749091092 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
    • Rosenzweig C, Karoly D, Vicarellio M. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 2008, 453:353-7.
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , pp. 353-357
    • Rosenzweig, C.1    Karoly, D.2    Vicarellio, M.3
  • 144
    • 33744997177 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A mechanistic model for secondary seed dispersal by wind and its experimental validation
    • Schurr F M, Bond W J, Midgley G F, Higgins S I. A mechanistic model for secondary seed dispersal by wind and its experimental validation. J. Ecol. 2005, 93:1017-28.
    • (2005) J. Ecol. , vol.93 , pp. 1017-1028
    • Schurr, F.M.1    Bond, W.J.2    Midgley, G.F.3    Higgins, S.I.4
  • 146
    • 0034988501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios
    • Shafer S L, Bartlein P J, Thompson R S. Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios. Ecosystems 2001, 4:200-15.
    • (2001) Ecosystems , vol.4 , pp. 200-215
    • Shafer, S.L.1    Bartlein, P.J.2    Thompson, R.S.3
  • 147
    • 4444228560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantification of the susceptibility of the native flora of the South-West Province, Western Australia to Phytophthora cinnamomi
    • Shearer B L, Crane C E, Cochrane A. Quantification of the susceptibility of the native flora of the South-West Province, Western Australia to Phytophthora cinnamomi. Aust. J. Bot. 2004, 52:435-43.
    • (2004) Aust. J. Bot. , vol.52 , pp. 435-443
    • Shearer, B.L.1    Crane, C.E.2    Cochrane, A.3
  • 148
    • 0001854356 scopus 로고
    • Coexistence of plant species with similar niches
    • Shmida A, Ellner S. Coexistence of plant species with similar niches. Vegetatio 1984, 58:29-55.
    • (1984) Vegetatio , vol.58 , pp. 29-55
    • Shmida, A.1    Ellner, S.2
  • 149
    • 3042601152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe
    • Skov F, Svenning J C. Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography 2004, 27:366-80.
    • (2004) Ecography , vol.27 , pp. 366-380
    • Skov, F.1    Svenning, J.C.2
  • 150
    • 0036695896 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Four-year growth dynamics of beech-spruce model ecosystems under CO2 enrichment on two different forest soils
    • Spinnler D, Egli P, Körner C. Four-year growth dynamics of beech-spruce model ecosystems under CO2 enrichment on two different forest soils. Trees: Struct. Funct. 2002, 16:423-36.
    • (2002) Trees: Struct. Funct. , vol.16 , pp. 423-436
    • Spinnler, D.1    Egli, P.2    Körner, C.3
  • 151
    • 33745713662 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods
    • Sutherland W J. Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods. J. Appl. Ecol. 2006, 43:599-16.
    • (2006) J. Appl. Ecol. , vol.43 , pp. 599-616
    • Sutherland, W.J.1
  • 152
    • 33846828770 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate
    • Suttle K B, Thomsen M A, Power M E. Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate. Science 2007, 315:640-2.
    • (2007) Science , vol.315 , pp. 640-642
    • Suttle, K.B.1    Thomsen, M.A.2    Power, M.E.3
  • 153
    • 34248138492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by post glacial dispersal limitation
    • Svenning J C, Skov F. Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by post glacial dispersal limitation. Ecol. Lett. 2007, 10:453-60.
    • (2007) Ecol. Lett. , vol.10 , pp. 453-460
    • Svenning, J.C.1    Skov, F.2
  • 154
    • 1542329839 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extinction risk from climate change
    • Thomas C D, Cameron A, Green R E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 2004, 427:145-8.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.427 , pp. 145-148
    • Thomas, C.D.1    Cameron, A.2    Green, R.E.3
  • 155
    • 0242275331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change
    • Thuiller W. BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob. Change Biol. 2003, 9:1353-62.
    • (2003) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.9 , pp. 1353-1362
    • Thuiller, W.1
  • 156
    • 10944234906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change
    • Thuiller W. Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 2004, 10:2020-7.
    • (2004) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.10 , pp. 2020-2027
    • Thuiller, W.1
  • 158
    • 33645008357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions
    • a
    • Thuiller W, Broennimann O, Hughes G, Alkemades J R M, Midgley G F, Corsi F. Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Glob. Change Biol. 2006, 12:424-40. a
    • (2006) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.12 , pp. 424-440
    • Thuiller, W.1    Broennimann, O.2    Hughes, G.3    Alkemades, J.R.M.4    Midgley, G.F.5    Corsi, F.6
  • 159
    • 33745815147 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia
    • b
    • Thuiller W, Midgley G F, Hughes G. Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia. Glob. Change Biol. 2006, 12:759-76. b
    • (2006) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.12 , pp. 759-776
    • Thuiller, W.1    Midgley, G.F.2    Hughes, G.3
  • 160
    • 38849199261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges
    • Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo M B. Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges. Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2008, 9:137-52.
    • (2008) Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst. , vol.9 , pp. 137-152
    • Thuiller, W.1    Albert, C.2    Araújo, M.B.3
  • 161
    • 0032700233 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Responses of wild C4 and C3 grass (Poaceae) species to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration: a meta-analytic test of current theories and perceptions
    • Wand S J E, Midgley G F, Jones M H, Curtis P S. Responses of wild C4 and C3 grass (Poaceae) species to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration: a meta-analytic test of current theories and perceptions. Glob. Change Biol. 1999, 5:723-41.
    • (1999) Glob. Change Biol. , vol.5 , pp. 723-741
    • Wand, S.J.E.1    Midgley, G.F.2    Jones, M.H.3    Curtis, P.S.4
  • 162
    • 0028980853 scopus 로고
    • A simulation model for a shrub ecosystem in the semiarid Karoo, South Africa
    • Wiegand T, Milton S J, Wissel C. A simulation model for a shrub ecosystem in the semiarid Karoo, South Africa. Ecology 1995, 76:2205-21.
    • (1995) Ecology , vol.76 , pp. 2205-2221
    • Wiegand, T.1    Milton, S.J.2    Wissel, C.3
  • 163
    • 0041985115 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hierarchical Bayesian models for predicting the spread of ecological processes
    • Wikle C K. Hierarchical Bayesian models for predicting the spread of ecological processes. Ecology 2003, 84:1382-94.
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , pp. 1382-1394
    • Wikle, C.K.1
  • 164
    • 13444255784 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae
    • Williams P, Hannah L, Andelman S. Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conserv. Biol. 2005, 19:1063-74.
    • (2005) Conserv. Biol. , vol.19 , pp. 1063-1074
    • Williams, P.1    Hannah, L.2    Andelman, S.3
  • 165
    • 0141860957 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe
    • Williams S E, Bolitho E E, Fox S. Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. Sci 2003, 270:1887-92.
    • (2003) Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. Sci , vol.270 , pp. 1887-1892
    • Williams, S.E.1    Bolitho, E.E.2    Fox, S.3
  • 166
    • 33750000646 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Resilience of two Banksia species to global change: comparing results of climate modelling, demographic and translocation studies
    • Witkowski E T F, Lamont B B. Resilience of two Banksia species to global change: comparing results of climate modelling, demographic and translocation studies. Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Manage. 2006, 2:59-72.
    • (2006) Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Manage. , vol.2 , pp. 59-72
    • Witkowski, E.T.F.1    Lamont, B.B.2
  • 167
    • 0031417818 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Temperate eucalypt woodlands: a review of their status, processes threatening their persistence and techniques for restoration
    • Yates C J, Hobbs R J. Temperate eucalypt woodlands: a review of their status, processes threatening their persistence and techniques for restoration. Aust. J. Bot. 1997, 45:949-73.
    • (1997) Aust. J. Bot. , vol.45 , pp. 949-973
    • Yates, C.J.1    Hobbs, R.J.2
  • 168
    • 14044265124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relative importance of reproductive biology and establishment ecology for persistence of a rare shrub in a fragmented landscape
    • Yates C J, Ladd P G. Relative importance of reproductive biology and establishment ecology for persistence of a rare shrub in a fragmented landscape. Conserv. Biol. 2005, 19:239-49.
    • (2005) Conserv. Biol. , vol.19 , pp. 239-249
    • Yates, C.J.1    Ladd, P.G.2
  • 170
    • 34249070508 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heirarchies of cause: understanding rarity in an an endemic shrub Verticordia staminosa (Myrtaceae) with a highly restricted distribution
    • Yates C J, Ladd P G, Coates D J, McArthur S. Heirarchies of cause: understanding rarity in an an endemic shrub Verticordia staminosa (Myrtaceae) with a highly restricted distribution. Aust. J. Bot. 2007, 55:194-205.
    • (2007) Aust. J. Bot. , vol.55 , pp. 194-205
    • Yates, C.J.1    Ladd, P.G.2    Coates, D.J.3    McArthur, S.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.