Attenuating focalism in affective forecasts of the commuting experience: Implications for economic decisions and policy making

Journal of Economic Psychology

Volumn 32, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 691-699

  Comerford, David A ^a,b  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY COLLEGE DUBLIN   (Ireland)

Author keywords

Affective forecasting; Debiasing; Focussing bias

Indexed keywords

EID: 80052025922     PISSN: 01674870     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2011.06.005     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Ayton P., Pott A., Elwakili N. Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions?. Thinking and Reasoning 2007, 13(1):62-80.
2. Baum-Snow N. Did highways cause suburbanization?. Quarterly Journal of Economics 2007, 122:775-805.
3. Buehler R., McFarland C. Intensity bias and affective forecasting: The role of temporal focus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 2001, 27:1480-1493.
4. Daly M., Delaney L., Doran P.P., Harmon C., MacLachlan M. Naturalistic monitoring of the affect-heart rate relationship: A day reconstruction study. Health Psychology 2010, 29(2):186-195.
5. DeWall, C. N., Bushman, B. J., & Baumeister, R. F. (2011). How you expect to feel trumps actual feelings in guiding social behavior and judgment. In Presented at SPSP conference, San Antonio, 2011.
6. Dunn E., Gilbert D.T., Wilson T.D. Location, location, location: The misprediction of satisfaction in housing lotteries. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 2003, 29:1421-1432.
7. Edlin A.S., Karaca-Mandic P. The accident externality from driving. Journal of Political Economy 2006, 114:931-955.
8. Frey B., Stutzer A. Mispredicting utility and the political process. Behavioral public finance 2006, 113-140. Russell Sage Foundation, New York. E. McCaffery, J. Slemrod (Eds.).
9. Friedman M.S., Powell K.E., Hutwagner L., Graham L., Teague W.G. Impact of changes in transportation and commuting behaviors during the 1996 summer Olympic Games in Atlanta on air quality and childhood asthma. Journal of American Medical Association 2001, 285:897-905.
10. Gilbert D.T., Wilson T.D. Prospection: Experiencing the future. Science 2007, 317:1351-1354.
11. Hensher D.A. Travel behaviour research: The leading edge 2001, Pergamon, Oxford.
12. Hicks J. The foundations of welfare economics. Economic Journal 1939, 49(196):696-712.
13. Hill J., Polasky S., Nelson E., Tilman D., Huo H., Ludwig L., et al. Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2009, 106:2077-2082.
14. Hoerger M., Quirk S.W., Lucas R.E., Carr T.H. Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors. Judgment and Decision Making 2010, 5(5):354-373.
15. Hsee C.K., Hastie R., Chen J. Hedonomics: Bridging decision research with happiness research. Perspectives on Psychological Science 2008, 3:224-243.
16. Irwin E.G., Bockstael N.E. The evolution of urban sprawl: Evidence of spatial heterogeneity and increasing land fragmentation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2007, 104(52):20672-20677.
17. Knabe A., Ratzel S., Schob R., Weimann J. Dissatisfied with life but having a good day: Time-use and well-being of the unemployed. The Economic Journal 2010, 120:867-899.
18. Lam K.C.H., Buehler R., McFarland C., Ross M., Cheung I. Cultural differences in affective forecasting: The role of focalism. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 2005, 31:1296-1309.
19. Layard R. Happiness and public policy: A challenge to the profession. Economic Journal 2006, 116(510):C24-C33.
20. Kahneman D., Sugden R. Experienced utility as a standard of policy evaluation. Environmental and Resource Economics 2005, 32:161-181.
21. Kennedy Q., Mather M., Carstensen L. The role of motivation in the age-related positivity effect in autobiographic memory. Psychological Science 2004, 15:208-214.
22. Kermer D.A., Driver-Linn E., Wilson T.D., Gilbert D.T. Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. Psychological Science 2006, 17:649-653.
23. List, J. A., Sadoff, S., Wagner, M. (in press). So you want to run an experiment, now what? Some rules of thumb for optimal experimental design. Experimental Economics.
24. Loewenstein G., Ubel P.A. Hedonic adaptation and the role of decision and experience utility in public policy. Journal of Public Economics 2008, 92:1795-1810.
25. McFarland C., Ross M., DeCourville N. Women's theories of menstruation and biases in recall of menstrual symptoms. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 1989, 57:522-531.
26. Mellers B.A., McGraw A.P. Anticipated emotions as guides to choice. Current Directions in Psychological Science 2001, 10:210-214.
27. Mitchell T.R., Thompson L., Peterson E., Cronk R. Temporal Adjustments in the Evaluation of Events: The " Rosy View" Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 1997, 33:421-448.
28. Morewedge C.K., Gilbert D.T., Wilson T.D. The least likely of times: How remembering the past biases forecasts of the future. Psychological Science 2005, 16:626-630.
29. Oswald A., Powdthavee N. Does happiness adapt? A longitudinal study of disability with implications for economists and judges. Journal of Public Economics 2008, 92:1061-1077.
30. Parry I.W.H., Walls M., Harrington W. Automobile externalities and policies. Journal of Economic Literature 2007, 45:373-399.
31. Pollai M., Hoelzl E., Possas F. Consumption-related emotions over time: Fit Between prediction and experience. Marketing Letters 2010, 21:397-411.
32. Robinson M.D., Clore G.L. Belief and feeling: Evidence for an accessibility model of emotional self-report. Psychological Bulletin 2002, 128:934-960.
33. Schrank D., Lomax T. The 2005 urban mobility report 2005, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station.
34. Schwarz N., Kahneman D., Xu J. Global and episodic reports of hedonic experience. Using calendar and diary methods in life events research 2009, 157-174. Sage, Newbury Park, CA. R. Belli, F. Stafford, D. Alwin (Eds.).
35. Sevdalis N., Harvey N. Reducing the impact bias in judgments of post-decisional affect: Distraction or task interference?. Judgment and Decision Making 2009, 4:287-296.
36. Steg L. Car use: Lust and must. Instrumental, symbolic and affective motives for car use. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 2005, 39(2-3):147-162.
37. Stone A., Broderick J., Kaell A., DelesPaul P., Porter L. Does the peak end phenomenon observed in laboratory pain studies apply to real-world pain in rheumatoid arthritics?. Journal of Pain 2000, 1:212-217.
38. Stone A., Schwartz J., Schwarz N., Schkade D., Krueger A., Kahneman D. A population approach to the study of emotion: Diurnal rhythms of a working day examined with the Day Reconstruction Method (DRM). Emotion 2006, 6:139-149.
39. Thaler R.H., Sunstein C.R. Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness 2008, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
40. Wesp R., Sandry J., Prisco A., Sarte Affective forecasts of future positive events are tempered by consideration of details. American Journal of Psychology 2009, 122:167-174.
41. Wilson T.D., Wheatley T., Meyers J., Gilbert D.T., Axsom D. Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasts. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 2000, 78:821-836.
42. Wirtz D., Kruger J., Napa Scollon C., Diener E. The role of predicted, on-line and remembered experience in future choice. Psychological Science 2003, 14:520-524.
43. Wilson T.D., Meyers J., Gilbert D.T. How happy was I anyway? A retrospective impact bias. Social Cognition 2003, 21:421-446.