Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors

Judgment and Decision Making

Volumn 5, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 365-373

  Hoerger, Michael ^a   Quirk, Stuart W ^b   Lucas, Richard E ^c   Carr, Thomas H ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER MEDICAL CENTER   (United States)

^b CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Affective forecasting; Focalism; Immune neglect; Impact bias; Working memory

Indexed keywords

EID: 77956989056     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19302975     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Ayton, P., Pott, A., & Elwakili, N. (2007). Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions?. Thinking & Reasoning, 13, 62-80.
2. Barnes, J. M. & Underwood, B. M. (1959). "Fate" of first-list associations in transfer theory. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 58, 97-105.
3. Brumback, C. R., Low, K., Gratton, G., & Fabiani, M. (2005). Putting things into perspective: Differences in working memory span and the integration of information. Experimental Psychology, 52, 21-30.
4. Buehler, R., McFarland, C., Spyropoulos, V., & Lam, K. C. H. (2007). Motivated prediction of future feelings: Effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 1265-1278.
5. Catania, A. C. (2006). Learning (Interim [4th] ed.). Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY: Sloan.
6. Chandler, M. (1993). Not just a lot of hot air. Nature 363, 673-674.
7. Daneman, M., & Carpenter, P. (1980). Individual differences in working memory and reading. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 19, 450-466
8. DeWall, C. N., & Baumeister, R. F. (2006). Alone but feeling no pain: Effects of social exclusion on physical pain tolerance and pain threshold, affective forecasting, and interpersonal empathy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 91, 1-15.
9. Diener, E., Lucas, R. E., & Scollon, C. N. (2006). Beyond the hedonic treadmill: Revisions to the adaptation theory of well-being. American Psychologist, 61, 305-314.
10. Dunn, E. W., Brackett, M. A., Ashton-James, C., Schneiderman, E., & Salovey, P. (2007). On emotionally intelligent time travel: Individual differences in affective forecasting ability. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 85-93.
11. Dunn, E. W., & Laham, S. A. (2006). A user's guide to emotional time travel: Progress on key issues in affective forecasting. In J. Forgas (Ed.), Hearts and minds: Affective influences on social cognition and behavior. (Frontiers of Social Psychology Series). Psychology Press: New York.
12. Eastwick, P. W., Finkel, E. J., Krishnamurti, T., & Loewenstein, G. (2008). Mispredicting distress following romantic breakup: Revealing the time course of the affective forecasting error. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44, 800-807.
13. Fernandez-Duque, D., & Landers, J. (2008). "Feeling more regret than I would have imagined": Self-report and behavioral evidence. Judgment and Decision Making, 3, 449-456.
14. Geraerts, E., Merckelbach, H., Jelicic, M., & Habets, P. (2007). Suppression of intrusive thoughts and working memory capacity in repressive coping. American Journal of Psychology, 120, 205-218.
15. Gertner, J. (2003, September 7). The futile pursuit of happiness. New York Times Magazine, 44-47, 86, 90-91.
16. Gilbert, D. T., Gill, M. J., & Wilson, T. D. (2002). The future is now: Temporal correction in affective forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 88, 430-444.
17. Gilbert, D. T., Pinel, E. C., Wilson, T. D., Blumberg, S. J., & Wheatley, T. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 617-638.
18. Hoerger, M., Quirk, S. W., Lucas, R. E., & Carr, T. H. (2009). Immune neglect in affective forecasting. Journal of Research in Personality, 43, 91-94.
19. Kermer, D., Driver-Linn, E., Wilson, T., & Gilbert, D. (2006). Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. Psychological Science, 17, 649-653.
20. Lustig, C., Hasher, L., & Zacks, R. T. (2007). Inhibitory deficit theory: Recent developments in a "new view". In D. S. Gorfein & C. M. MacLeod (Eds), Inhibition in cognition (pp 145-162). Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.
21. Lustig, C., Konkel, A., & Jacoby, L. (2004). Which route to recovery? Controlled retrieval and accessibility bias in retroactive interference. Psychological Science, 15, 729-735.
22. Mallett, R. K., Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2008). Expect the unexpected: Failure to anticipate similarities leads to an intergroup forecasting error. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 94, 265-277.
23. McElree, B. (2001). Working memory and focal attention. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 27, 817-835.
24. Mellers, B. (2000). Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences. Psychological Bulletin, 126, 910-924.
25. Mellers, B., & McGraw, A. (2001). Anticipated emotions as guides to choice. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10, 210-214.
26. Mellers, B., Schwarz, A., Ho, K., & Ritov, I. (1997). Decision affect theory: Emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options. Psychological Science, 8, 423-429.
27. Mellers, B., Schwarz, A., & Ritov, I. (1999). Emotionbased choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 128, 332-345.
28. Norem, J. (2001). The positive power of negative thinking: Using defensive pessimism to manage anxiety and perform at your peak. New York: Basic Books.
29. Oberauer, K. (2002). Access to information in working memory: Exploring the focus of attention. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 28, 411-421.
30. Peck, M. (1996). Abounding grace: An anthology of wisdom. Kansas City: Andrews McMeel Publishing.
31. Redick, T. S., Heitz, R. P., & Engle, R. W. (2007). Working memory capacity and inhibition: Cognitive and social consequences. In D. S. Gorfein & C. M. MacLeod (Eds), Inhibition in cognition (pp 125-142). Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.
32. Salthouse, T., Siedlecki, K., & Krueger, L. (2006). An individual differences analysis of memory control. Journal of Memory and Language, 55, 102-125.
33. Sevdalis, N., & Harvey, N. (2009). Reducing the impact bias in judgments of post-decisional affect: Distraction or task interference? Judgment and Decision Making, 4, 287-296.
34. Sevdalis, N., Petrides, K. V., & Harvey, N. (2007). Trait emotional intelligence and decision-related emotions. Personality and Individual Differences, 42, 1347-1358.
35. Skinner, B. F. (1956). The phylogeny and ontogeny of behavior. Science, 153, 1205-1213.
36. Stawski, R., Sliwinski, M., & Smyth, J. (2006). Stressrelated cognitive interference predicts cognitive function in old age. Psychology and Aging, 21, 535-544.
37. Tomkins, S. S. (1991). Affect, imagery, consciousness. Volume 3: The negative affects: Anger and fear. New York: Springer.
38. Turner, M. L., & Engle, R. W. (1989). Is working memory capacity task dependent? Journal of Memory and Language, 28, 127-154.
39. Verwoerd, J., & Wessel, I. (2007). Distractibility and individual differences in the experience of involuntary memories. Personality and Individual Differences, 42, 325-334.
40. Watkins, M. J. (1979). Engrams as cuegrams and forgetting as cue overload: A cueing approach to the structure of memory. In C. R. Puff (Ed.), Memory organization and structure (pp. 347-372). New York: Academic Press.
41. Wilson, T., & Gilbert, D. (2003). Affective forecasting. In M. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology, Vol. 35 (pp. 345-411). New York: Elsevier.
42. Wilson, T., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J., Gilbert, D., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 821-836.