메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 28, Issue 6, 2011, Pages 1279-1290

Effect of stochastic MJO forcing on ENSO predictability

Author keywords

conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP); El Ni o Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO); model error

Indexed keywords


EID: 79960710753     PISSN: 02561530     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-011-0126-4     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (10)

References (37)
  • 1
    • 0034345420 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonmonotone spectral projected gradient methods on convex sets
    • Birgin, E. G., J. M. Martinez, and M. Raydan, 2000: Nonmonotone spectral projected gradient methods on convex sets. SIAM Journal on Optimization, 10, 1196-1211.
    • (2000) SIAM Journal on Optimization , vol.10 , pp. 1196-1211
    • Birgin, E.G.1    Martinez, J.M.2    Raydan, M.3
  • 2
    • 0002797877 scopus 로고
    • Predictability of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model
    • Blumenthal, M. B., 1991: Predictability of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784.
    • (1991) J. Climate , vol.4 , pp. 766-784
    • Blumenthal, M.B.1
  • 3
    • 39549084072 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Niño prediction and predictability
    • Chen, D., and M. A. Cane, 2007: El Niño prediction and predictability. J. Comput. Phys. 227, 3625-3640.
    • (2007) J. Comput. Phys. , vol.227 , pp. 3625-3640
    • Chen, D.1    Cane, M.A.2
  • 4
    • 0029475787 scopus 로고
    • An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: Implications for predictability
    • Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, and A. J. Busalacchi, 1995: An improved procedure for El Niño forecasting: Implications for predictability. Science, 269, 1699-1702.
    • (1995) Science , vol.269 , pp. 1699-1702
    • Chen, D.1    Zebiak, S.E.2    Busalacchi, A.J.3
  • 5
    • 1942520295 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years
    • Chen, D., M. A. Cane, and A. Kaplan, 2004: Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature, 428, 733-736.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.428 , pp. 733-736
    • Chen, D.1    Cane, M.A.2    Kaplan, A.3
  • 6
    • 33845934373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investigating decadal variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
    • Duan, W. S., and M. Mu, 2006: Investigating decadal variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C07015, doi: 10. 1029/2005JC003458.
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.111
    • Duan, W.S.1    Mu, M.2
  • 7
    • 77955814231 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is model parameter error related to a significant spring predictability barrier for El Niño events? Results from a theoretical model
    • Duan, W. S., and R. Zhang, 2010: Is model parameter error related to a significant spring predictability barrier for El Niño events? Results from a theoretical model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27 (5), 1003-1013, doi: 10. 1007/s00376-009-9166-4.
    • (2010) Adv. Atmos. Sci. , vol.27 , Issue.5 , pp. 1003-1013
    • Duan, W.S.1    Zhang, R.2
  • 8
    • 20344375332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for ENSO events
    • Duan, W. S., M. Mu, and B. Wang, 2004: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for ENSO events. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23105.
    • (2004) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.109
    • Duan, W.S.1    Mu, M.2    Wang, B.3
  • 9
    • 68149181405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investigating a nonlinear characteristic of El Niño events by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
    • Duan, W. S., F. Xue, and M. Mu, 2009a: Investigating a nonlinear characteristic of El Niño events by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Atmos. Res., 94(1), 10-18.
    • (2009) Atmos. Res. , vol.94 , Issue.1 , pp. 10-18
    • Duan, W.S.1    Xue, F.2    Mu, M.3
  • 10
    • 68149171521 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring the initial errors that cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" for El Niño events
    • Duan, W. S., X. C. Liu, K. Y. Zhu, and M. Mu, 2009b: Exploring the initial errors that cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" for El Niño events. J. Geophys. Res., 114, C04022, doi: 10. 1029/2008JC004925.
    • (2009) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.114
    • Duan, W.S.1    Liu, X.C.2    Zhu, K.Y.3    Mu, M.4
  • 11
    • 0031833773 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oceanic Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation
    • Hendon, H. H., B. Liebmann, and J. D. Glick, 1998: Oceanic Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 88-101.
    • (1998) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.55 , pp. 88-101
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Liebmann, B.2    Glick, J.D.3
  • 12
    • 0033172554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian oscillation during Austral Summer
    • Hendon, H. H., C. Zhang, and J. D. Glick, 1999: Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian oscillation during Austral Summer. J. Climate, 12, 2538-2550.
    • (1999) J. Climate , vol.12 , pp. 2538-2550
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Zhang, C.2    Glick, J.D.3
  • 13
    • 33847385448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship
    • Hendon, H. H., C. W. Matthew, and C. Zhang, 2007: Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 20, 531-543.
    • (2007) J. Climate , vol.20 , pp. 531-543
    • Hendon, H.H.1    Matthew, C.W.2    Zhang, C.3
  • 14
    • 80054119281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advance of the studies of the characteristics, cause of formation and prediction study for climate disaster in China
    • Huang, R. H., 1999: Advance of the studies of the characteristics, cause of formation and prediction study for climate disaster in China. Chinese Academy of Sciences Bulletin, 3, 188-199. (in Chinese).
    • (1999) Chinese Academy of Sciences Bulletin , vol.3 , pp. 188-199
    • Huang, R.H.1
  • 15
    • 0032529811 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991
    • Kaplan, A., M. Cane, and Y. Kushnir, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18567-18589.
    • (1998) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.103 , pp. 18567-18589
    • Kaplan, A.1    Cane, M.2    Kushnir, Y.3
  • 16
    • 40849118556 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled oceanatmosphere model
    • Luo, J. J., S. Masson, and S. Behera, 2008: Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled oceanatmosphere model. J. Climate, 21, 84-93.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 84-93
    • Luo, J.J.1    Masson, S.2    Behera, S.3
  • 17
    • 0024228345 scopus 로고
    • Large intraseasonal fluctuations in wind stress in the tropics
    • Madden, R. A., 1988: Large intraseasonal fluctuations in wind stress in the tropics. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 5333-5340.
    • (1988) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.93 , pp. 5333-5340
    • Madden, R.A.1
  • 18
    • 0033210562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Niño
    • McPhaden, M. J., 1999: Equatorial waves and the 1997-98 El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2961-2964.
    • (1999) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.26 , pp. 2961-2964
    • McPhaden, M.J.1
  • 19
    • 0037034026 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean
    • McPhaden, M. J., and D. Zhang, 2002: Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean. Nature, 415, 603-608.
    • (2002) Nature , vol.415 , pp. 603-608
    • McPhaden, M.J.1    Zhang, D.2
  • 20
    • 0030448959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO
    • Moore, A. M, and R. Kleeman, 1996: The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1405-1446.
    • (1996) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.122 , pp. 1405-1446
    • Moore, A.M.1    Kleeman, R.2
  • 21
    • 3042674339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
    • Mu, M., and W. S. Duan, 2003: A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chinese Science Bulletin, 48, 1045-1047.
    • (2003) Chinese Science Bulletin , vol.48 , pp. 1045-1047
    • Mu, M.1    Duan, W.S.2
  • 22
    • 46449085937 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new approach to the generation of initial perturbations for ensemble prediction: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
    • Mu, M., and Z. N. Jiang, 2008: A new approach to the generation of initial perturbations for ensemble prediction: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chinese Science Bulletin, 53(113), 2062-2068.
    • (2008) Chinese Science Bulletin , vol.53 , Issue.113 , pp. 2062-2068
    • Mu, M.1    Jiang, Z.N.2
  • 23
    • 8744256430 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The sensitivity and stability of the ocean's thermocline circulation to finite amplitude freshwater perturbations
    • Mu, M., L. Sun, and D. A. Henk, 2004: The sensitivity and stability of the ocean's thermocline circulation to finite amplitude freshwater perturbations. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2305-2315.
    • (2004) J. Phys. Oceanogr. , vol.34 , pp. 2305-2315
    • Mu, M.1    Sun, L.2    Henk, D.A.3
  • 24
    • 34547178326 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A kind of initial errors related to "spring predictability barrier" for El Niño events in Zebiak-Cane model
    • Mu, M., H. Xu, and W. S. Duan, 2007a: A kind of initial errors related to "spring predictability barrier" for El Niño events in Zebiak-Cane model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03709, doi: 10. 1029/2006GL-27412.
    • (2007) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.34
    • Mu, M.1    Xu, H.2    Duan, W.S.3
  • 25
    • 34547150648 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasondependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictability in a theoretical model
    • Mu, M., W. S. Duan, and B. Wang, 2007b: Seasondependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictability in a theoretical model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10113, doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006981.
    • (2007) J. Geophys. Res. , vol.112
    • Mu, M.1    Duan, W.S.2    Wang, B.3
  • 26
    • 68249155000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A method to identify the sensitive areas in targeting for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation
    • Mu, M., F. Zhou, and H. Wang, 2009: A method to identify the sensitive areas in targeting for tropical cyclone prediction: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1623-1639.
    • (2009) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.137 , pp. 1623-1639
    • Mu, M.1    Zhou, F.2    Wang, H.3
  • 27
    • 0036648346 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An improved in-situ and satellite SST analysis for climate
    • Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, and T. M. Smith, 2002: An improved in-situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
    • (2002) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 1609-1625
    • Reynolds, R.W.1    Rayner, N.A.2    Smith, T.M.3
  • 28
    • 21844473820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MJO-related oceanic Kelvin waves and the ENSO cycle: A study with the NCEP global ocean data assimilation system
    • Seo, K. H., and Y. Xue, 2005: MJO-related oceanic Kelvin waves and the ENSO cycle: A study with the NCEP global ocean data assimilation system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L07712, doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022511.
    • (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.32
    • Seo, K.H.1    Xue, Y.2
  • 29
    • 0032966819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the predictability of the interannual behavior of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Niño
    • Slingo, J. M., D. P. Rowell, and K. R. Sperber, 1999: On the predictability of the interannual behavior of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Niño. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 583-610.
    • (1999) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.125 , pp. 583-610
    • Slingo, J.M.1    Rowell, D.P.2    Sperber, K.R.3
  • 30
    • 0031420524 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the maintenance and initiation of the intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and in the GLA and UKMO AMIP simulations
    • Sperber, K. R., J. M. Slingo, and P. M. Inness, 1997: On the maintenance and initiation of the intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and in the GLA and UKMO AMIP simulations. Climate Dyn., 13 (11), 769-795.
    • (1997) Climate Dyn. , vol.13 , Issue.11 , pp. 769-795
    • Sperber, K.R.1    Slingo, J.M.2    Inness, P.M.3
  • 31
    • 56349138635 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interdecadal variation of ENSO predictability in multiple models
    • Tang, Y., Z. Deng, X. Zhou, Y. J. Cheng, and D. Chen, 2008: Interdecadal variation of ENSO predictability in multiple models. J. Climate, 21, 4811-4833.
    • (2008) J. Climate , vol.21 , pp. 4811-4833
    • Tang, Y.1    Deng, Z.2    Zhou, X.3    Cheng, Y.J.4    Chen, D.5
  • 32
    • 55349117477 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What kind of initial errors cause the severest prediction uncertainty of El Niño in Zebiak-Cane model
    • Xu, H., and W. S. Duan, 2008: What kind of initial errors cause the severest prediction uncertainty of El Niño in Zebiak-Cane model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 25, 577-584, doi: 10. 1007/s00376-008-0577-4.
    • (2008) Adv. Atmos. Sci. , vol.25 , pp. 577-584
    • Xu, H.1    Duan, W.S.2
  • 33
    • 4043115093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles
    • Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebaik, 1997: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2043-2056.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 2043-2056
    • Xue, Y.1    Cane, M.A.2    Zebaik, S.E.3
  • 34
    • 74849085538 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and seasondependent predictability of El Niño events in the Zebiak-Cane model
    • doi: 10. 1002/qj. 526
    • Yu, Y. S., W. S. Duan, H. Xu and M. Mu, 2009: Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and seasondependent predictability of El Niño events in the Zebiak-Cane model. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 135, doi: 10. 1002/qj. 526.
    • (2009) Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc , vol.135
    • Yu, Y.S.1    Duan, W.S.2    Xu, H.3    Mu, M.4
  • 35
    • 0000414145 scopus 로고
    • On the 30-60 day oscillation and the prediction of El Niño
    • Zebiak, S. E., 1989: On the 30-60 day oscillation and the prediction of El Niño. J. Climate, 15, 1381-1387.
    • (1989) J. Climate , vol.15 , pp. 1381-1387
    • Zebiak, S.E.1
  • 36
    • 0000335201 scopus 로고
    • A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation
    • Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
    • (1987) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.115 , pp. 2262-2278
    • Zebiak, S.E.1    Cane, M.A.2
  • 37
    • 70349190263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On ENSO dynamics and its prediction
    • Zhang, R. H., G. Q. Zhou, and J. P. Chao, 2003: On ENSO dynamics and its prediction. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 674-688. (in Chinese).
    • (2003) Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.27 , pp. 674-688
    • Zhang, R.H.1    Zhou, G.Q.2    Chao, J.P.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.