Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector Analysis. Part I: Optimal growth in seasonal background and ENSO cycles

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 125, Issue 9, 1997, Pages 2043-2056

  Xue, Yan ^a,b   Cane, M A ^a   Zebiak, S E ^a  

^a Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^b CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 4043115093     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2043:POACMO>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Battisti, D. S., 1988: The dynamics and thermodynamics of a warming event in a coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2889-2919.
2. Blumenthal, M. B., 1991: Predictability of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 4, 766-784.
3. Buizza, R., and T. N. Palmer, 1995: The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1434-1456.
4. Cane, M. A., and R. J. Patton, 1984: A numerical model for low-frequency equatorial dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 14, 1853-1863.
5. _, S. E. Zebiak, and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Niño. Nature, 321, 827-832.
6. Chen, Y.-Q., D. S. Battisti, T. N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E. S. Sarachik, 1997: A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model using singular vector analysis: The role of the annual cycle and the ENSO cycle. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 831-845.
7. Farrell, B., 1989: Optimal excitation of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 1193-1206.
8. Ji, M., A. Kumar, and A. Leetmaa, 1994: An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center, some early results. Tellus, 46A, 398-418.
9. Lacarra, J.-F., and O. Talagrand, 1988: Short-range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus, 40A, 81-95.
10. Latif, M., T. P. Barnett, M. A. Cane, M. Flügel, N. E. Graham, H. von Storch, J.-S. Xu, and S. E. Zebiak, 1994: A review of ENSO prediction studies. Climate Dyn., 9, 167-179.
11. Lindzen, R. S., and S. Nigam, 1987: On the role of sea surface temperature gradients in forcing low-level winds and convergence in the tropics. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2418-2436.
12. Lorenz, E. N., 1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 3, 321-333.
13. Mantua, N. J., 1994: Numerical modeling studies of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, 139 pp. [Available from University Microfilms, 1490 Eisenhower Place, P.O. Box 975, Ann Arbor, MI 48106.]
14. _, and D. S. Battisti, 1995: Aperiodic variability in Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model: Air-sea interactions in the western equatorial Pacific. J. Climate, 8, 2897-2927.
15. McCreary, J. P., and D. L. T. Anderson, 1991: An overview of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of El Niño and Southern Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res., 96, 3125-3150.
16. Miller, R. N., and M. A. Cane, 1989: A Kalman filter analysis of sea level heights in the tropical Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 19, 773-790.
17. Molteni, F., and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Predictability and finite-time instability of the northern winter circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 269-298.
18. _, R. Buizza, T. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
19. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman, 1996: The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 1405-1446.
20. Mureau, R., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1993: Ensemble prediction using dynamically-conditioned perturbations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 299-323.
21. Palmer, T. N., R. Buizza, F. Molteni, Y.-Q. Chen, and S. Corti, 1994: Singular vectors and predictability of weather and climate. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, Ser. A, 348, 459-475.
22. Reynolds, R. W., and T. M. Smith, 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J. Climate, 7, 929-948.
23. _, K. Arpe, C. Gordon, S. P. Hayes, A. Leetmaa, and M. J. McPhaden, 1989: A comparison of tropical Pacific surface wind analyses. J. Climate, 2, 105-111.
24. Strang, G., 1988: Linear Algebra and Its Applications. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 442 pp.
25. Thompson, C. J., 1997: Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci., in press.
26. Tziperman, E., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane, 1997: Mechanisms of seasonal-ENSO interaction. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 61-71.
27. Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and B. Blumenthal, 1994: On the prediction of ENSO: A study with a low-order Markov model. Tellus, 46A, 512-528.
28. _, _, _, and T. N. Palmer, 1997: Predictability of a coupled model of ENSO using singular vector analysis. Part II: Optimal growth and forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2057-2073.
29. Zebiak, S. E., 1986: Atmospheric convergence feedback in a simple model for El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1263-1271.
30. _, and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.