Investigating a nonlinear characteristic of El Niño events by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Atmospheric Research

Volumn 94, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 10-18

  Duan, Wansuo ^a   Xue, Feng ^a   Mu, Mu ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

Author keywords

ENSO model; Nonlinearity; Optimal perturbation; Strong El Ni o events

Indexed keywords

COMBINED EFFECT; CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION; DYNAMICAL BEHAVIORS; ENSO MODEL; INTERMEDIATE MODEL; LINEAR DYNAMICS; NONLINEAR CHARACTERISTICS; NONLINEAR MECHANISMS; NONLINEARITY; OPTIMAL PERTURBATION; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; THEORETICAL MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; DECAY (ORGANIC); OCEANOGRAPHY; OPTIMIZATION; TIMING DEVICES;

NICKEL COMPOUNDS;

EL NINO; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; NONLINEARITY; PERTURBATION; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; THERMOCLINE; UPWELLING;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 68149181405     PISSN: 01698095     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.003     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. An S.-I., and Jin F.F. Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO. J. Climate 17 (2004) 2399-2412
2. Bjerknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 97 (1969) 163-172
3. Clarke A.J., and Van Gorder S. The connection between the boreal spring southern oscillation persistence barrier and biennial variability. J. Climate 12 (1999) 610-620
4. Chen D., Cane M.A., Kaplan A., Zebiak S.E., and Huang D.J. Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428 (2004) 733-736
5. Dijkstra H. Nonlinear Physical Oceanography: A Dynamical Systems Approach to the Large Scale Ocean Circulation and El Niño (2005), Springer 532
6. Duan W.S., Mu M., and Wang B. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. J. Geophys. Res. 109 D23105 (2004) 10.1029/2004JD004756
7. Duan W.S., and Mu M. Investigating decadal variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. J. Geophys. Res. 111 C07015 (2006) 10.1029/2005JC003458
8. Duan W.S., Xu H., and Mu M. Decisive role of nonlinear temperature advection in El Niño and La Nina amplitude asymmetry. J. Geophys. Res. 113 C01014 (2008) 10.1029/2006JC003974
9. Fracdrich K. An ENSO impact on Europe? A review. Tellus, Ser. A 46 (1994) 541-552
10. Jin F.F. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci. 54 (1997) 811-829
11. Horel J.D., and Wallace J.M. Planetary scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 109 (1981) 813-829
12. Kirtman B.P., Shukla J., Balmaseda M., Graham N., Penland C., Xue Y., and Zebiak S. Current status of ENSO forecast skill: A report to the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Numerical Experimentation Group (NEG), CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction. Clim. Variability and Predictability (2002), Southampton Oceanogr. Cent., Southampton, UK
13. Latif M., Abderson D., Barnett T., Cane M., Kleeman R., Leetmaa A., O'Brien J., Rosati A., and Schneider E. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res. 103 C7 (1998) 14375-14393
14. Mitchell T.P., and Wallace J.M. ENSO seasonality: 1950-78 versus 1979-92. J. Climate 9 (1996) 3149-3161
15. Moore A.M., and Kleeman R. The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122 (1996) 1405-1446
16. Mu M., Duan W.S., and Wang B. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications. Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 10 (2003) 493-501
17. Mu M., and Duan W.S. A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation. Chin. Sci. Bull. 48 (2003) 1045-1047
18. Mu M., Xu H., and Duan W.S. A kind of initial errors related to "spring predictability barrier" for El Niño event in Zebiak-Cane model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L03709 (2007) 10.1029/2006GL027412
19. Mu M., Duan W., and Wang B. Season-dependent dynamics of nonlinear optimal error growth and ENSO predictability in a theoretical model. J. Geophys. Res. 112 D10113 (2007) 10.1029/2005JD006981
20. Neelin J.D. A hybrid coupled general circulation model for El Niño studies. J. Atmos. Sci. 47 (1991) 674-693
21. Powell M.J.D. VMCWD: a FORTRAN subroutine for constrained optimization. DAMTP Report 1982/NA4 (1982), University of Cambridge, England
22. Philander S.G. El Niño, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation (1990), Academic Press 289 pp.
23. Quinn W.H., Neal V.T., and Antunez de Mayolo S.E. El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries. J. Geophys. Res. 92 (1987) 14449-14461
24. Tziperman E., Stone L., Cane M.A., and Jarosh H. El Niño chaos: overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator. Science 264 (1994) 72-74
25. Thompson C.J. Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci. 55 (1998) 537-557
26. Walker G.T. Correlation in seasonal variations of weather IX: a further study of world weather. Mem. Indian Meteor. Dept. 25 (1924) 275-332
27. Wang B., and Fang Z. Chaotic oscillation of tropical climate: a dynamic system theory for ENSO. J. Atmos. Sci. 53 (1996) 2786-2802
28. Wang B., Barcilon A., and Fang Z. Stochastic dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci. 56 (1999) 5-23
29. Wang C.Z. A unified oscillator model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate 24 (2001) 98-115
30. Webster P.J., and Yang S. Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 118 (1992) 877-926
31. Zebiak S.E., and Cane A. A model El Niño-Southern oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 115 (1987) 2262-2278