Investigating decadal variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation asymmetry by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

Volumn 111, Issue 7, 2006, Pages

  Duan, Wansuo ^a   Mu, Mu ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OCEANOGRAPHY;

ADVECTION; AIR TEMPERATURE; AIR-SEA INTERACTION; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CHAOS THEORY; CLIMATOLOGY; DECADAL VARIATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; NONLINEARITY;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (EAST); PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 33845934373     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21699291     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2005JC003458     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. An, S.-I. (2004), Interdecadal changes in the El Nino-La Nina asymmetry, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23210, doi:10.1029/2004GL021699.
2. An, S.-I., and F. F. Jin (2004), Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO, J. Clim., 17, 2399-2412.
3. An, S.-I., and B. Wang (2000), Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO frequency, J. Clim., 13, 2044-2055.
4. Carton, J. A., G. Chepurin, X. Cao, and B. Giese (2000), A simple ocean data assimilation analysis of the global upper ocean 1950-95. Part I: methodology, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 294-309.
5. Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi, and M. A. Cane (1995), An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting, Science, 269, 1699-1702.
6. Chen, D., M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak, and D. J. Huang (2004), Predictability of El Nino over the past 148 years, Nature, 428, 733-736.
7. Duan, W. S., M. Mu, and B. Wang (2004), Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation as the optimal precursors for El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23105, doi:10.1029/2004JD004756.
8. Gu, D., and S. G. H. Philander (1995), Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics, Science, 275, 805-807.
9. Jin, F. F., S. I. An, A. Timmermann, and J. X. Zhao (2003), Strong El Nino events and nonlinear dynamical heating, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(3), 1120, doi:10.1029/2002GL016356.
10. Kleeman, R., and A. M. Moore (1999), A new method for determining the reliability of dynamical ENSO prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 127, 694-705.
11. Kleeman, R., J. P. McCreary, and B. A. Klinger (1999), A mechanism for generating ENSO decadal variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1743-1746.
12. Liu, Z., S. G. H. Philander, and R. C. Pacanowski (1994), A GCM study of the tropical-subtropical upper ocean water exchange, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 2606-2623.
13. McCreary, J. P., and P. Lu (1994), Interaction between the subtropical and equatorial ocean circulation: the subtropical cell, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 466-497.
14. Moore, A. M., and R. Kleeman (1996), The dynamics of error growth and predictability in a coupled model of ENSO, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 122, 1405-1446.
15. Mu, M., and W. S. Duan, (2003), A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, Chin. Sci. Bull., 48, 1045-1047.
16. Mu, M., W. S. Duan, and B. Wang (2003), Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and its applications, Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 10, 493-501.
17. Mu, M., L. Sun, and D. A. Henk (2004), The sensitivity and stability of the ocean's thermocline circulation to finite amplitude freshwater perturbations, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2305-2315.
18. Peland, C., and P. Sardeshmukh (1995), The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, J. Clim., 8, 1999-2004.
19. Powell, M. J. D. (1982), VMCWD: A FORTRAN subroutine for constrained optimization, DAMTP Rep. 1982/NA4, Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, U. K.
20. Samelson, R. G., and E. Tziperman (2001), Instability of the chaotic ENSO: The growth-phase predictability barrier, J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3613-3625.
21. Schopf, P. S., and M. J. Suarez (1988), Vacillations in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 549-566.
22. Sun, L., M. Mu, D. J. Sun, and X. Y. Yin (2005), Passive mechanism of decadal variation of thermohaline circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C07025, doi:10.1029/2005JC002897.
23. Thompson, C. J. (1998), Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of ENSO, J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 537-557.
24. Wang, B. (1995), Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades, J. Clim., 8, 267-285.
25. Wang, B., and S.-I. An (2002), A mechanism for decadal changes of ENSO behavior: roles of background wind changes, Clim. Dyn., 18, 475-486.
26. Wang, B., and Z. Fang (1996), Chaotic oscillation of tropical climate: A dynamic system theory for ENSO, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2786-2802.
27. Wang, B., A. Barcilon, and Z. Fang (1999), Stochastic dynamics of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 5-23.
28. Zebiak, S. E., and A. Cane (1987), A model El Nino-Southern oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
29. Zebiak, S. E., and M. A. Cane (1991), Natural climate variability in a coupled model, in Greehouse Gas Induced Climate Change, edited by M. E. Schlessinger, pp. 457-470, Elsevier, New York.