High-resolution ensemble prediction of a polar low development

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 63, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 585-604

  Kristiansen, Jørn ^a   Sørland, Silje Lund ^a   Iversen, Trond ^a,b   Bjørge, Dag ^a   Køltzow, Morten Odegaard ^a  

^a NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Norway)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EXTREME EVENT; LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM; PARAMETERIZATION; SEVERE WEATHER; WARNING SYSTEM; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 79954489075     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00498.x     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Aakjær, P. D. 1992. Polar lows affecting Denmark. Tellus 44A, 155-172.
2. Albright, M. D., Reed, R. J. and Ovens, D. W. 1995. Origin and structure of a numerically simulated polar low over Hudson Bay. Tellus 47A, 834-848.
3. Anderson, D., Hodges, K. I. and Hoskins, B. J. 2003. Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal. Mon. Wea. Rev. 131, 565-573.
4. Aspelien, T., Bremnes, J. B., Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2011. Short-range probabilistic forecasts from the Norwegian limited-area EPS. Long-term validation and a polar low study. Tellus 63A, this issue.
5. Bechtold, P., Köhler, M., Jung, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Leutbecher, M. and co-authors. 2008. Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: from synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 134, 1337-1351.
6. Blechschmidt, A.-M. 2008. A 2-year climatology of polar low events over the Nordic Seas from satellite remote sensing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L09815, doi:.
7. Bowler, N. E. and Mylne, K. R. 2009. Ensemble transform Kalman filter perturbations for a regional ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc. 135, 757-766, doi:.
8. Branković, Č., Matjačić, B., Ivatek-Šahdan, S. and Buizza, R. 2008. Downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forcasts for cases of severe weather: ensemble statistics and cluster analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 3323-3342.
9. Bratseth, A. M. 1985. A note on CISK in polar air masses. Tellus 37A, 403-406.
10. Bracegirdle, T. J. and Gray, S. 2008. An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic Seas. Int. J. Climatol. 28, 1903-1919.
11. Buizza, R. 2002. Chaos and weather prediction. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather, Internal Report; Meteorological Training Course, 1-28.
12. Buizza, R. and Hollingsworth, A. 2002. Storm prediction over Europe using ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteorol. Appl. 9, 289-305.
13. Buizza, R. and Palmer, T. N. 1995. The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1434-1456.
14. Buizza, R., Houtekamer, P. L., Pellerin, G., Toth, Z., Zhu, Y. and Wei, M. 2005. A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 133, 1076-1097.
15. Buizza, R., Miller, M. and Palmer, T. N. 1999. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2887-2908.
16. Businger, S. 1985. The synoptic climatology of polar low outbreaks. Tellus 37A, 419-432.
17. Calvo, J. 2007. Kain-Fritsch convection in HIRLAM. Present status and prospects. HIRLAM Newsletter 52, 57-64. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
18. Claud, C., Heinemann, G., Raustein, E. and McMurdie L. 2004. Polar low le Cygne: satellite observations and numerical simulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130, 1075-1102.
19. Cullen, M. J. P., Davies, T., Mawson, M. H., James, J. A., Coulter, S. C. and co-authors. 1997. An overview of numerical methods for the next generation UK NWP and climate model. In: Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Ocean Modelling: The Andre J. Robert Memorial Volume (eds C. A. Lin, R. Laprise and H. Ritchie ). Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 425-444.
20. Davies, T., Cullen, M. J. P., Malcolm, A. J., Mawson, M. H., Staniforth, A. and co-authors. 2005. A new dynamical core for the Met Office's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131. 1759-1782.
21. Dixon, M., Li, Z., Lean, H., Roberts, N. and Ballard, S. 2009. Impact of data assimilation on forecasting convection over the United Kingdom using a high-resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 1562-1584.
22. Emanuel, K. A. and Rotunno, R. 1989. Polar lows as arctic hurricanes. Tellus 41A, 1-17.
23. Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2001. Targeted ensemble prediction for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean. Tellus 53A, 35-55.
24. Frogner, I.-L. and Iversen, T. 2002. High-resolution limited area ensemble predictions based on low-resolution targeted singular vectors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128, 1321-1341.
25. Frogner, I.-L., Haakenstad, H. and Iversen, T. 2006. Limited area ensemble predictions at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132, 2785-2808.
26. Froude, L. S. R., Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I. 2007a. The predictbility of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction of the observing system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 315-333.
27. Froude, L. S. R., Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I. 2007b. The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 2545-2567.
28. Gustafsson, N., Källén, E. and Thorsteinsson, S. 1998. Sensitivity of forecast errors to initial and lateral boundary conditions. Tellus 50A, 167-185.
29. Harold, J. M., Bigg, G. R. and Turner, J. 1999. Mesocyclone Acticity over the North-East Atlantic. Part 1: Vortex distribution and variability. Int. J. Clim. 19, 1187-1204.
30. Harold, T. W. and Browning, K. A. 1969. The polar low as a baroclinic disturbance. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 95, 710-723.
31. Hodges, K. I. 1994. A general method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data. Mon. Wea. Rev. 120, 2573-2586.
32. Hodges, K. I. 1995. Feature tracking on the unit sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev. 123, 3458-3465.
33. Hodges, K. I. 1999. Adaptive constraints for feature tracking. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127, 1362-1373.
34. Hohenegger, C. and Schär, C. 2007. Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales. Bull. Am. Soc. 88, 11, 1783-1793. doi:
35. Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I. 2002. New perspective on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 59, 1041-1061.
36. Hoskins, B. J. and Hodges, K. I. 2005. New perspective on the Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks. J. Atmos. Sci. 18, 4108-4129.
37. Hoskins B. J., McIntyre, M. E. and Robertson, A. W. 1985. On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 111, 877-946.
38. Ivarsson, K. I. 2007. The Rasch Kristjansson large scale condensation. Present status and prospects. HIRLAM Newsletter 52, 50-56. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
39. Jung, T. and Leutbecher, M. 2008. Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134, 973-984.
40. Jung, T., Klinker, E. and Uppala, S. 2005. Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the twentieth century using ECMWF forecasting system. Part II: Ensemble forecasts. Meteorol. Appl. 12, 111-122.
41. Kain, J. S., 2004. The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization. An Update. J. Appl. Meteor. 43, 170-181.
42. Kolstad, E. W. 2006. A new climatology of favourable conditions for reverse-shear polar lows. Tellus 58A, 344-354.
43. Lean, H. W., Clark, P. A., Dixon, M., Roberts, N. M., Fitch, A. and co-authors. 2008. Characteristics of high-resolution versions of the Met Office Unified Model for forecasting convection over the United Kingdom. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 3408-3424.
44. Leduc, M. and Laprise, R. 2009. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size. Clim Dyn. 32, 833-854.
45. Linders, T. and Saetra, Ø. 2010. Can CAPE maintain polar lows? J. Atmos. Sci. 67, 2559-2571. (Referred to as LS10 in the text.)
46. Lopez, P. 2008. Comparison of OPERA precipitation radar composites to CMORPH, SYNOP and ECMWF model data. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 569. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
47. Mass, C. F., Ovens, D., Westrick, K. and Colle, B. A. 2002. Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83, 407-430.
48. McCabe, A. and Brown, A. R. 2007. The role of surface heterogeneity in modeling the stable boundary layer. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 122, 517-534.
49. King, J. C., Connolley, W. M. and Derbyshire, S. H. 2001. Sensitivity of modeled Antarctic climate to surface and boundary-layer flux parameterizations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127, 779-794.
50. Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis, T. 1996. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system; methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122, 73-119.
51. Montgomery, M. T. and Farrell, B. F. 1992. Polar low dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci. 49, 2484-2505.
52. Nielsen, N. W. 1997. An early-autumn polar low formation over the Norwegian Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 102(D12), 13, 955-13, 973.
53. Noer, G. and Ovhed, M. 2003. Forecasting of polar lows in the Norwegian and the Barents Sea. In: Proceedings of the 9th meeting of EGS Polar Lows Working Group, Cambridge, UK Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
54. Nordeng, T. E. 1990. A model-based diagnostic study of the development and maintenance mechanism of two polar lows. Tellus 42A, 92-108.
55. Nordeng, T. E. and Rasmussen, E. A. 1992. A most beautiful polar low: a case study of a polar low development in the Bear Island region. Tellus 44A, 81-99.
56. Økland, H., 1977. On the intensification of small-scale cyclones formed in very cold air masses heated by the ocean. Institute Report Series, Vol. 26, Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo.
57. Orrell, D., Smith, L., Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N. 2001. Model error in weather forecasting. Nonl. Process. Geophys. 8, 357-371.
58. Paillux, J., Andersson, E. and Ondras, M. (eds.) 2008. Proceedings of the fourth WMO workshop on the impact of various observing systems on Numerical Weather Prediction. WMO Report WMO/TD No. 1450. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
59. Polar Low Special Issue. 1985. Tellus 37A, 393-477.
60. Rabbe, Å. 1975. Arctic instability lows. Meteorologiske Annaler 6, 303-329.
61. Rasch, P. J. and Kristjansson, J. E. 1998. A comparison of the CCM3 model climate using diagnosed and predicted condensate parameterizations. J. Climate 11, 1587-1614.
62. Rasmussen, E. A. 1979. The polar low as an extratropical CISK disturbance. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 105, 531-549.
63. Rasmussen, E. A. 1983. A review of meso-scale disturbances in cold air masses. In: Mesoscale meteorology - theories, observations and models (eds D. K. Lilly and T. Gal-Chen ) D. Reidel Publishing Co. Dordrecht, Holland, 247-283.
64. Rassmussen, E. A. and Turner, J. (eds.). 2003. Polar Lows: Mesoscale Weather Systems in the Polar Regions. Cambridge University Press, 612 pp.
65. Roberts, N. M. 2000. The relationship between water vapour imagery and thunderstorms. Internal Report (JCMM) no. 110. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
66. Roberts, N. 2003. The impact of a change to the use of the convection scheme to high resolution simulations of convective events. Stage 2 report from the strom-scale numerical modelling project. Met Office Technical Report no. 407. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
67. Roberts, N. 2007. Meteorological components in forecasts of extreme convective rainfall using 12-km and 1-km NWP models: a tale of two storms. Met Office Technical Report no. 520. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
68. Roberts, N. M. and Lean, H. W. 2008. Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 78-97.
69. Shapiro, M. A., Fedor, L. S. and Hampel, T. 1987. Researching aircraft measurements of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea. Tellus 39A, 272-306.
70. Sørland, S. L. 2009. High-resolution ensemble forecasts of a polar low by non-hydrostatic downscaling. Master thesis in Geosciences, Meteorology and Oceanography. Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
71. Tijm, S. 2004. Hirlam pseudo satellite images. HIRLAM Newsletter 46, 59-64.
72. Undén, P., Rounto, L., Järvinen, H., Lynch, P., Calvo, J. and co-authors. 2002. HIRLAM-5 Scientific Documentation, HIRLAM-5 project, c/o Per Undén SMHI, S-60176 Norrköping, Sweden
73. van der Grijn, G. 2002. Tropical cyclone forecasting at ECMWF: new products and validation. ECMWF Technical Memorandum 386. Available at: Last accessed 28 Dec 2010.
74. Wilhelmsen, K. 1985. Climatological study of gale-producing polar lows near Norway. Tellus 37A, 451-459.
75. Xue, Y., Vasic, R., Janjic, Z., Mesinger, F. and Mitchell, K. E. 2007. Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the continental U.S. regional climate using the Eta/SSiB Regional Climate Model. J. Clim. 20, 4172-4193.
76. Yanase, W. and Niino, H. 2005. Effects of baroclinicity on the cloud pattern and structure of polar lows: a high-resolution numerical experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02806, doi:.
77. Yanase, W. and Niino, H. 2007. Dependence of polar low development on baroclinicity and physical processes. An idealized high-resolution numerical experiment. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 3044-3067.
78. Zahn, M. and Storch, H. V. 2008. Tracking polar lows in CLM. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17, 445-453.
79. Zsoter, E., Buizza, R. and Richardson, R. 2009. "Jumpiness" of the ECMWF and Met Office EPS control and ensemble-mean forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 3823-3836.