Divide and conquer? Persistence of infectious agents in spatial metapopulations of hosts

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 275, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 12-20

  Jesse, Marieke ^a   Heesterbeek, Hans ^a  

^a UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Lattice; Migration; Movement distance; Patch neighbourhood; Stochastic model

Indexed keywords

HOST; METAPOPULATION; MIGRATION; PATCH DYNAMICS; PROBABILITY; STOCHASTICITY;

ARTICLE; DEMOGRAPHY; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; HOST PATHOGEN INTERACTION; METAPOPULATION; PATCH DYNAMICS; POPULATION MIGRATION; POPULATION MOVEMENT PATTERN; POPULATION SIZE; POPULATION STRUCTURE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; STOCHASTIC MODEL;

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DEMOGRAPHY; ECOSYSTEM; EMIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTIONS; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

EID: 79551612075     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.01.032     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Altizer S., Dobson A., Hosseini P., Hudson P., Pascual M., Rohani P. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecol. Lett. 2006, 9:467-484.
2. Anderson R.M., May R.M. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control 1992, Oxford University Press, USA.
3. Bartlett M.S. Measles periodicity and community size. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A Stat. Soc. 1957, 120:48-70.
4. Courcoul A., Ezanno P. Modelling the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (bvdv) in a managed metapopulation of cattle herds. Vet. Microbiol. 2010, 142:119-128.
5. Cross P.C., Lloyd-Smith J.O., Johnson P.L.F., Getz W.M. Duelling timescales of host movement and disease recovery determine invasion of disease in structured populations. Ecol. Lett. 2005, 8:587-595.
6. Davis S., Klassovskiy N., Ageyev V., Suleimenov B., Atshabar B., Klassovskaya A., Bennett M., Leirs H., Begon M. Plague metapopulation dynamics in a natural reservoir: the burrow system as the unit of study. Epidemiol. Infect. 2007, 135:740-748.
7. Davis S., Leirs H., Viljugrein H., Stenseth N.C., Bruyn L.D., Klassovskiy N., Ageyev V., Begon M. Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague. J. R. Soc. Interface 2007, 4:649-657.
8. Davis S., Trapman P., Leirs H., Begon M., Heesterbeek J.A.P. The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon. Nature 2008, 454:634-637.
9. Durrett R., Levin S.A. Stochastic spatial models: a user's guide to ecological applications. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 1994, 343:329-350.
10. Funk G.A., Jansen V.A.A., Bonhoeffer S., Killingback T. Spatial models of virus-immune dynamics. J. Theor. Biol. 2005, 233:221-236.
11. Gog J., Woodroffe R., Swinton J. Disease in endangered metapopulations: the importance of alternative hosts. Proc. R. Soc. B 2002, 269:671-676.
12. Grassly N.C., Fraser C. Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proc. R. Soc. B 2006, 273:2541-2550.
13. Grenfell B., Harwood J. (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases. Trends Ecol. Evol. 1997, 12:395-399.
14. Hagenaars T.J., Donnelly C.A., Ferguson N.M. Spatial heterogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases. J. Theor. Biol. 2004, 229:349-359.
15. Hall I.M., Egan J., Barrass I., Gani R., Leach S. Comparison of smallpox outbreak control strategies using a spatial metapopulation model. Epidemiol. Infect. 2007, 135:1133-1144.
16. Hanski I. Metapopulation dynamics. Nature 1998, 396:41-49.
17. Hanski I. Metapopulation Ecology 1999, Oxford University Press.
18. Hanski I., Ovaskainen O. The metapopulation capacity of a fragmented landscape. Nature 2000, 404:755-758.
19. Hawkes C. Linking movement behaviour, dispersal and population processes: is individual variation a key?. J. Anim. Ecol. 2009, 78:894-906.
20. Jansen V.A., Lloyd A.L. Local stability analysis of spatially homogeneous solutions of multi-patch systems. J. Math. Biol. 2000, 41(3):232-252.
21. Jesse M., Ezanno P., Davis S., Heesterbeek J.A.P. A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: movement and epidemic duration. J. Theor. Biol. 2008, 254:331-338.
22. Kao R.R., Green D.M., Johnson J., Kiss I.Z. Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the uk. J. R. Soc. Interface 2007, 4:907-916.
23. Keeling M.J. Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence. J. Anim. Ecol. 2000, 69:725-736.
24. Le Menach A., Legrand J., Grais R.F., Viboud C., Valleron A., Flahault A. Modeling spatial and temporal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in france: identification of high-risk areas. Vet. Res. 2005, 36:699-712.
25. Leibold M.A., Holyoak M., Mouquet N., Amarasekare P., Chase J.M., Hoopes M.F., Holt R.D., Shurin J.B., Law R., Tilman D., Loreau M., Gonzalez A. The metacommunity concept: a framework for multi-scale community ecology. Ecol. Lett. 2004, 7:601-613.
26. Levin S.A., Durrett R. From individuals to epidemics. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 1996, 351:1615-1621.
27. Lindholm M., Britton T. Endemic persistence or disease extinction: the effect of separation into sub-communities. Theor. Popul. Biol. 2007, 72:253-263.
28. Lloyd-Smith J.O., Cross P.C., Briggs C.J., Daugherty M., Getz W.M., Latto J., Sanchez M.S., Smith A.B., Swei A. Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease?. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2005, 20:511-519.
29. McCallum H., Dobson A. Disease, habitat fragmentation and conservation. Proc. R. Soc. B 2002, 269:2041-2049.
30. Nåsell I. On the time to extinction in recurrent epidemics. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B. Stat. Methodol. 1999, 61:309-330.
31. Park A.W., Gubbins S., Gilligan C.A. Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure. Ecol. Lett. 2002, 5:747-755.
32. Pautasso M., Jeger M.J. Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in small-size directed networks. Ecol. Complex. 2008, 5:1-8.
33. Rhodes C., Anderson R. Persistence and dynamics in lattice models of epidemic spread. J. Theor. Biol. 1996, 180:125-133.
34. Rhodes C.J., Anderson R.M. Contact rate calculation for a basic epidemic model. Math. Biosci. 2008, 216:56-62.
35. Rogers L., Delahay R., Cheeseman C., Langton S., Smith G.C., Clifton-Hadley R.S. Movement of badgers (meles meles) in a high-density population: individual, population and disease effects. Proc. R. Soc. B 1998, 265:1269-1276.
36. Rohani P., May R.M., Hassell M.P. Metapopulations and equilibrium stability: the effects of spatial structure. J. Theor. Biol. 1996, 181:97-109.
37. Swinton J., Harwood J., Grenfell B.T., Gilligan C.A. Persistence thresholds for phocine distemper virus infection in harbour seal phoca vitulina metapopulations. J. Anim. Ecol. 1998, 67:54-68.
38. Telfer S., Holt A., Donaldson R., Lambin X. Metapopulation processes and persistence in remnant water vole populations. Oikos 2001, 95:31-42.
39. Vuilleumier S., Wilcox C., Cairns B.J., Possingham H.P. How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence. Theor. Popul. Biol. 2007, 72:77-85.
40. Webb S.D., Keeling M.J., Boots M. Host-parasite interactions between the local and the mean-field: how and when does spatial population structure matter?. J. Theor. Biol. 2007, 249:140-152.
41. White S.M., White K.A.J. Relating coupled map lattices to integro-difference equations: dispersal-driven instabilities in coupled map lattices. J. Theor. Biol. 2005, 235:463-475.