Mathematical modeling of the transmission and control of foodborne pathogens and antimicrobial resistance at preharvest

Foodborne Pathogens and Disease

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 1-10

  Lanzas, Cristina ^a   Lu, Zhao ^a   Gröhn, Yrjo T ^a  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CEFTIOFUR; QUINOLINE DERIVED ANTIINFECTIVE AGENT; SALMONELLOSIS VACCINE;

ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE; BACTERIAL TRANSMISSION; CAMPYLOBACTER; ESCHERICHIA COLI; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MYCOBACTERIUM; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SALMONELLA; VACCINATION; YERSINIA ENTEROCOLITICA;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMALS; DISEASE TRANSMISSION, INFECTIOUS; DRUG RESISTANCE, MICROBIAL; FOOD MICROBIOLOGY; FOODBORNE DISEASES; HUMANS; LIVESTOCK; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; ZOONOSES;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 78651278394     PISSN: 15353141     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1089/fpd.2010.0643     Document Type: Review

References (66)

1. Abatih EN, Alban L, Ersbøll AK, and Lo Fo Wong DM. Impact of antimicrobial usage on the transmission dynamics of antimicrobial resistant bacteria among pigs. J Theor Biol 2009;256: 561-573.
2. Anderson RM and May RM. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992.
3. Andersson DI and Hughes D. Antibiotic resistance and its cost: is it possible to reverse resistance? Nat Rev Microbiol 2010;8: 260-271.
4. Begon M, Bennett M, Bowers RG, French NP, Hazel SM, and Turner J. A clarification of transmission terms in host-microparasite models: numbers, densities and areas. Epidemiol Infect 2002;129:147-153.
5. Bergstrom CT and Feldgarden M. The ecology and evolution of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In: Evolution in Health and Disease. Stearns SC and Koella J (eds.). Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008, pp. 125-137.
6. Bergstrom CT, Lo M, and Lipsitch M. Ecological theory suggests that antimicrobial cycling will not reduce antimicrobial resistance in hospitals. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2004;101:13285-13290.
7. Boerlin P and Reid-Smith RJ. Antimicrobial resistance: its emergence and transmission. Anim Health Res Rev 2008;9: 115-126.
8. Bonten MJM, Austin DJ, and Lipsitch M. Understanding the spread of antibiotic resistant pathogens in hospitals: mathematical models as tools for control. Clin Infect Dis 2001;33: 1739-1746.
9. Callaway TR, Anderson RC, Edrington TS, Elder RO, Genovese KJ, Bischoff KM, Poole TL, Jung YS, Harvey RB, and Nisbet DJ. Preslaughter intervention strategies to reduce food-borne pathogens in food animals. J Anim Sci 2003;81:E17-E23.
10. [CDC] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Preliminary FoodNet data on the incidence of infection with pathogens transmitted commonly through food-10 states, 2007. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2008;57:366-370.
11. Chapagain PP, Van Kessel JS, Karns JK, Wolfgang DR, Hovingh E, Nelen KA, Schukken YH, and Grohn YT. A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella cerro infection in a US dairy herd. Epidemiol Infect 2008;136:263-272.
12. Collins MT. Mycobacterium paratuberculosis: A potential food-borne pathogen? J Dairy Sci 1997;80:3445-3448.
13. Cummings KJ, Warnick LD, Alexander KA, Cripps CJ, Grohn YT, McDonough PL, Nydam DV, and Reed KE. The incidence of salmonellosis among dairy herds in the Northeastern Uni-ted States. J Dairy Sci 2009;92:3766-3774.
14. Davis MA, Hancock DD, and Besser TE. Multiresistant clones of Salmonella enterica: the importance of dissemination. J Lab Clin Med 2002;140:135-141.
15. Denagamage TN, O'Connor AM, Sargeant JM, Rajić A, and McKean JD. Efficacy of vaccination to reduce Salmonella prevalence in live and slaughtered swine: a systematic review of literature from 1979 to 2007. Foodborne Pathog Dis 2007;4: 539-549.
16. Diekmann O and Heesterbeek JAP. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2000.
17. Fossler CP, Wells SJ, Kaneene JB, Ruegg PL, Warnick LD, Bender JB, Eberly LE, Godden SM, and Halbert LW. Herd-level fac-tors associated with isolation of Salmonella in a multi-state study of conventional and organic dairy farms: I. Salmonella shedding in cows. Prev Vet Med 2005a;70:257-277.
18. Fossler CP, Wells SJ, Kaneene JB, Ruegg PL, Warnick LD, Bender JB, Eberly LE, Godden SM, and Halbert LW. Herd-level fac-tors associated with isolation of Salmonella in a multi-state study of conventional and organic dairy farms: II. Salmonella shedding in calves. Prev Vet Med 2005b;70:279-291.
19. Gillespie DT. General method for numerically simulating sto-chastic time evolution of coupled chemical-reactions. J Com-put Phys 1976;22:403-434.
20. Gillespie DT. Stochastic simulation of chemical kinetics. Annu Rev Phys Chem 2007;58:35-55.
21. Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., and Struchiner CJ. Design and Analysis of Vaccine Studies. New York: Springer, 2009.
22. Halloran ME, Longini IM Jr., and Struchiner CJ. Design and interpretation of vaccine field studies. Epidemiol Rev 1999;21: 73-88.
23. Hardman PM, Wathes CM, and Wray C. Transmission of sal-monellae among calves penned individually. Vet Rec 1991; 129:327-329.
24. Heffernan JM, Smith RJ, and Wahl LM. Perspectives on the basic reproductive ratio. J R Soc Interface 2005;2:281-293.
25. Heider LC, Meiring RW, Hoet AE, Gebreyes WA, Funk JA, and Wittum TE. Evaluation of vaccination with a commercial subunit vaccine on shedding of Salmonella enterica in sub-clinically infected dairy cows. J Am Vet Med Assoc 2008;233: 466-469.
26. House JK, Ontiveros MM, Blackmer NM, Dueger EL, Fitchhorn JB, McArthur GR, and Smith BP. Evaluation of an autogenous Salmonella bacterin and a modified live Salmonella serotype choleraesuis vaccine on a commercial dairy farm. Am J Vet Res 2001;62:1897-1902.
27. Kabagambe EK, Wells SJ, Garber LP, Salman MD, Wagner B, and Fedorka-Cray PJ. Risk factors for fecal shedding of Salmonella in 91 US dairy herds in 1996. Prev Vet Med 2000; 43:177-194.
28. Keeling MJ and Rohani P. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008.
29. Khachatryan AR, Besser TE, Hancock DD, and Call DR. Use of a nonmedicated dietary supplement correlates with increased prevalence of streptomycin-sulfa- tetracycline-resistant Escherichia coli on a dairy farm Appl Environ Microbiol 2006;72: 4583-4588.
30. Laegreid WW and Keen JE. Estimation of the basic reproduction ratio (R-0) for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157: H7 (STEC O157) in beef calves. Epidemiol Infect 2004;132: 291-295.
31. Lanzas C, Brien S, Ivanek R, Lo Y, Chapagain PP, Ray KA, Ayscue P, Warnick LD, and Grohn YT. The effect of heterogeneous infectious period and contagiousness on the dynamics of Salmonella transmission in dairy cows. Epidemiol Infect 2008a;136:1496-1510.
32. Lanzas C, Warnick LD, Ivanek R, Ayscue P, Nydam DV, and Grohn YT. The risk and control of Salmonella outbreaks in calfraising operations: a mathematical modeling approach. Vet Res 2008b;39:61.
33. Lanzas C, Warnick LD, James KL, Wright EM, Wiedmann M, and Grohn YT. Transmission dynamics of a multi-drug resistant Salmonella typhimurium outbreak in a dairy farm. Foodborne Pathog Dis 2010;7:467-474.
34. Lejeune JT, Besser TE, and Hancock DD. Cattle water troughs as reservoirs of Escherichia coli O157. Appl Environ Microbiol 2001;67:3053-3057.
35. Levin BR. Minimizing potential resistance: a population dynamics view. Clin Infect Dis 2001;33:S161-S169.
36. Levy SB and Marshall B. Antibacterial resistance worldwide: causes, challenges and responses. Nat Med 2004;10:S122-S129.
37. Lili LN, Britton NF, and Feil EJ. The persistence of parasitic plasmids. Genetics 2007;177:399-405.
38. Lloyd-Smith JO, Cross PC, Briggs CJ, Daugherty M, Getz WM, Latto J, Sanchez MS, Smith AB, and Swei A. Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? Trends Ecol Evol 2005a;20:511-519.
39. Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, and Getz WM. Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 2005b;438:355-359.
40. Lowrance TC, Loneragan GH, Kunze DJ, Platt TM, Ives SE, Scott HM, Norby B, Echeverry A, and Brashears MM. Changes in antimicrobial susceptibility in a population of Escherichia coli isolated from feedlot cattle administered ceftiofur crystallinefree acid. Am J Vet Res 2007;68:501-507.
41. Lu Z, Grohn YT, Smith RL, Wolfgang DR, Van Kessel JA, and Schukken YH. Assessing the potential impact of Salmonella vaccines in an endemically infected dairy herd. J Theor Biol 2009;259:770-784.
42. Lu Z, Mitchell RM, Smith RL, Van Kessel JS, Chapagain PP, Schukken YH, and Grohn YT. The importance of culling in Johne's disease control. J Theor Biol 2008;254:135-146.
43. Lu Z, Schukken YH, Smith RL, and Grohn YT. Stochastic simulations of a multi-group compartmental model for Johne's disease on US dairy herds with test-based culling intervention. J Theor Biol 2010;264:1190-1201.
44. Lurette A, Belloc C, Touzeau S, Hoch T, Ezanno P, Seegers H, and Fourichon C. Modelling Salmonella spread within a farrow-to-finish pig herd. Vet Res 2008;39:49.
45. Martinez JL, Baquero F, and Andersson DI. Predicting antibiotic resistance. Nat Rev Microbiol 2007;5:958-965.
46. Naidan L, Sonia P, Orhan S, Jun L, Shouxiong H, Linda M, and Qijing Z. Enhanced in vivo fitness of fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter jejuni in the absence of antibiotic selection pressure. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2005;102:541-546.
47. [NRC] National Research Council. Diagnosis and Control of Johne's Disease. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2003.
48. Ogden ID, MacRae M, and Strachan NJ. Is the prevalence and shedding concentrations of E. coli O157 in beef cattle in Scot-land seasonal? FEMS Microbiol Lett 2004;233:297-300.
49. Oliver H, Wiedmann M, and Boor K. Environmental reservoir and transmission into the mammalian host. In: Listeria monocytogenes: Pathogenesis and Host Response. Goldfine H and Shen H (eds.). New York: Springer, 2007, pp. 111-137.
50. Oliver SP, Patel DA, Callaway TR, and Torrence ME. ASAS Centennial Paper: developments and future outlook for pre-harvest food safety. J Anim Sci 2009;87:419-437.
51. Otto SP and Day T. A Biologist's Guide to Mathematical Modeling in Ecology and Evolution. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.
52. Robinson SE, Brown PE, Wright EJ, Hart CA, and French NP. Quantifying within-and between-animal variation and un-certainty associated with counts of Escherichia coli O157 oc-curring in naturally infected cattle faeces. J R Soc Interface 2009;6:169-177.
53. Salyers AA, Gupta A, and Wang Y. Human intestinal bacteria as reservoirs for antibiotic resistance genes. Trends Microbiol 2004;12:412-416.
54. Smith DR, Moxley RA, Peterson RE, Klopfenstein TJ, Erickson GE, Bretschneider G, Berberov EM, and Clowser S. A two-dose regimen of a vaccine against type III secreted proteins reduced Escherichia coli O157:H7 colonization of the terminal rectum in beef cattle in commercial feedlots. Foodborne Pa-thog Dis 2009;6:155-161.
55. Stanford K, Croy D, Bach SJ, Wallins GL, Zahiroddini H, and McAllister TA. Ecology of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in com-mercial dairies in Southern Alberta. J Dairy Sci 2005;88:4441-4451.
56. Thomas ME, Klinkenberg D, Ejeta G, Van Knapen F, Bergwerff AA, Stegeman JA, and Bouma A. Quantification of horizontal transmission of Salmonella enterica Serovar Enteritidis bacteria in pair-housed groups of laying hens. Appl Environ Microbiol 2009;75:6361-6366.
57. Torrence ME. Epidemiology and food safety. Foodborne Pathog Dis 2005;2:2-11.
58. Turner J, Begon M, Bowers RG, and French NP. A model ap-propriate to the transmission of a human food-borne pathogen in a multigroup managed herd. Prev Vet Med 2003;57:175-198.
59. Van den Driessche P and Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci 2002;180:29-48.
60. Van Schaik G, Klinkenberg D, Veling J, and Stegeman A. Transmission of Salmonella in dairy herds quantified in the endemic situation. Vet Res 2007;38:861-869.
61. Varma JK, Molbak K, Barrett TJ, Beebe JL, Jones TF, Rabatsky-Ehr T, Smith KE, Vugia DJ, Chang HGH, and Angulo FJ. Antimicrobial-resistant nontyphoidal Salmonella is associated with excess bloodstream infections and hospitalizations. J In-fect Dis 2005;191:554-561.
62. Weigel RM, Nucera D, Qiao B, Teferedegne B, Suh DK, Barber DA, Bahnson PB, Isaacson RE, and White BA. Testing an ecological model for transmission of Salmonella enterica in swine production ecosystems using genotyping data. Prev Vet Med 2007;81:274-289.
63. Woolhouse MEJ, Dye C, Etard JF, Smith T, Charlwood JD, Garnett GP, Hagan P, Hii JLK, Ndhlovu PD, Quinnell RJ, Watts CH, Chandiwana SK, and Anderson RM. Hetero-geneities in the transmission of infectious agents: implications for the design of control programs. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1997;94:338-342.
64. Yan SS and Gilbert JM. Antimicrobial drug delivery in food animals and microbial food safety concerns: an overview of in vitro and in vivo factors potentially affecting the animal gut microflora. Adv Drug Delivery Rev 2004;56:1497-1521.
65. Zhang-Barber L, Turner AK, and Barrow PA. Vaccination for control of Salmonella in poultry. Vaccine 1999;17:2538-2545.
66. Zhang Q, Sahin O, McDermott PF, and Payot S. Fitness of an-timicrobial-resistant Campylobacter and Salmonella. Microb In-fect 2006;8:1972-1978.