Stochastic simulations of a multi-group compartmental model for Johne's disease on US dairy herds with test-based culling intervention

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 264, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 1190-1201

  Lu, Zhao ^a   Schukken, Ynte H ^a   Smith, Rebecca L ^a   Grohn, Yrjo T ^a  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

Author keywords

Johne's disease; Stochastic modeling; Test based culling; Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses

Indexed keywords

DAIRY FARMING; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE PREVALENCE; HORIZONTAL TRANSMISSION; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; MARKOV CHAIN; NUMERICAL MODEL; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; STOCHASTICITY; TESTING METHOD; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VERTICAL TRANSMISSION;

ARTICLE; COMPARTMENT MODEL; DAIRY CATTLE; HERD; MYCOBACTERIUM AVIUM; NONHUMAN; PARATUBERCULOSIS; PREDICTION; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; STIMULATION;

ANIMALS; CATTLE; CATTLE DISEASES; COMPUTER SIMULATION; INFECTION CONTROL; PARATUBERCULOSIS; RISK FACTORS; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; UNITED STATES;

UNITED STATES;

ANIMALIA; MYCOBACTERIUM AVIUM SUBSP. PARATUBERCULOSIS;

EID: 77952954727     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.03.034     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Beyerbach M., Gerlach G.F., Kreienbrock L. Modelling of prevalence development in a paratuberculosis control program in a dairy herd. Dtsch. Tierarztl. Wochenschr. 2001, 108:363-370.
2. Collins M.T., Morgan I.R. Simulation model of paratuberculosis control in a dairy herd. Prev. Vet. Med. 1992, 14:21-32.
3. Collins M.T. Evaluation of five antibody detection tests for diagnosis of bovine paratuberculosis. Clin. Diagn. Lab. Immunol. 2005, 12:685-692.
4. Collins M.T., Gardner I.A., Garry F.B., Roussel A.J., Wells S.J. Consensus recommendations on diagnostic testing for the detection of paratuberculosis in cattle in the United States. J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc. 2006, 229:1912-1919.
5. Collins, M.T., Eggleston, V., 2009. You can get ahead of Johne's. In: The 2nd New Horizons in Johne's Disease Control Workshop, pp. 47-48.
6. Dorshorst N.C., Collins M.T., Lombard J.E. Decision analysis model for paratuberculosis control in commercial dairy herds. Prev. Vet. Med. 2006, 75:92-122.
7. Gillespie D.T. A general method for numerically simulating the stochastic time evolution of coupled chemical reactions. J. Comput. Phys. 1976, 22:403-434.
8. Gillespie D.T. Exact stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions. J. Phys. Chem. 1977, 81:2340-2361.
9. Gillespie D.T. Stochastic simulation of chemical kinetics. Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem. 2007, 58:35-55.
10. Groenendaal H., Nielen M., Jalvingh A.W., Horst S.H., Galligan D.T., Hesselink J.W. A simulation of Johne's disease control. Prev. Vet. Med. 2002, 54:225-245.
11. Groenendaal H., Nielen M., Hesselink J.W. Development of the Dutch Johne's disease control program supported by a simulation model. Prev. Vet. Med. 2003, 60:69-90.
12. Helton J.C., Davis F.J. Illustration of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Risk Anal. 2002, 22:591-622.
13. Keeling M.J., Rohani P. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals 2008, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
14. Kudahl A.B., Ostergaard S., Sorensen J.T., Nielsen S.S. A stochastic model simulating paratuberculosis in a dairy herd. Prev. Vet. Med. 2007, 78:97-117.
15. Lu Z., Mitchell R.M., Smith R.L., Van Kessel J.S., Chapagain P.P., Schukken Y.H., Grohn Y.T. The importance of culling in Johne's disease control. J. Theor. Biol. 2008, 254:135-146.
16. Marino S., Hogue I.B., Ray C.J., Kirschner D.E. A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. J. Theor. Biol. 2008, 254:178-196.
17. Mitchell R.M., Whitlock R.H., Stehman S.M., Benedictus A., Chapagain P., Grohn Y.T., Schukken Y.H. Simulation modeling to evaluate the persistence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) on commercial dairy farms in the United States. Prev. Vet. Med. 2008, 83:360-380.
18. National Research Council of the National Academies, 2003. Diagnosis and control of Johne's disease. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
19. NAHMS, 1997. Dairy 1996-Johne's Disease on U.S. Dairy Operations, 1996. Fort Collins, CO, National Animal Health Monitoring System, 1997 (Ref Type: Report).
20. NAHMS, 2005. Dairy 2002-Johne's Disease on U.S. Dairy Operations, 2002. N427.0205. Fort Collins, CO, National Animal Health Monitoring System, 2005 (Ref Type: Report).
21. Ott S.L., Wells S.J., Wagner B.A. Herd-level economic losses associated with Johne's disease on US dairy operations. Prev. Vet. Med. 1999, 40:179-192.
22. Pouillot R., Dufour B., Durand B. A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission. Vet. Res. 2004, 35:53-68.
23. Rankin J.D. The experimental infection of cattle with Mycobacterium Johnei. III. Calves maintained in an infectious environment. J. Comp. Pathol. 1961, 71:10-15.
24. Renshaw E. Modelling Biological Populations in Space and Time 1993, Cambridge University Press, New York.
25. Saltelli, A., Chan, K., Scott, E.M. (Eds.), 2000. Sensitivity Analysis. John Wiley and Sons Ltd., Chichester, NY.
26. Smith R.L., Grohn Y.T., Pradhan A.K., Whitlock R.H., Van Kessel J.S., Smith J.M., Wolfgang D.R., Schukken Y.H. A longitudinal study on the impact of Johne's disease status on milk production in individual cows. J. Dairy Sci. 2009, 92:2653-2661.
27. Sweeney R.W., Whitlock R.H., Rosenberger A.E. Mycobacterium paratuberculosis isolated from fetuses of infected cows not manifesting signs of the disease. Am. J. Vet. Res. 1992, 53:477-480.
28. van den Driessche P., Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 2002, 180:29-48.
29. van Roermund H.J., Bakker D., Willemsen P.T., de Jong M.C. Horizontal transmission of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in cattle in an experimental setting: calves can transmit the infection to other calves. Vet. Microbiol. 2007, 122:270-279.
30. van Schaik G., Rossiter C.R., Stehman S.M., Shin S.J., Schukken Y.H. Longitudinal study to investigate variation in results of repeated ELISA and culture of fecal samples for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in commercial dairy herds. Am. J. Vet. Res. 2003, 64:479-484.
31. van Schaik G., Stehman S.M., Jacobson R.H., Schukken Y.H., Shin S.J., Lein D.H. Cow-level evaluation of a kinetics ELISA with multiple cutoff values to detect fecal shedding of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in New York State dairy cows. Prev. Vet. Med. 2005, 72:221-236.
32. Vose D. Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide 2008, Wiley, Chichester, NY. third ed.
33. Wells, S.J., Collins, M.T., Faaberg, K.S., Wees, C., Tavornpanich, S., Petrini, K.R., Collins, J.E., Cernicchiaro, N., Whitlock, R.H., 2006. Evaluation of a rapid fecal PCR test for detection of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in dairy cattle. Clin. Vaccine Immunol. October, 1125-1130.
34. Whitlock R.H., Wells S.J., Sweeney R.W., Van Tiem J. ELISA and fecal culture for paratuberculosis (Johne's disease): sensitivity and specificity of each method. Vet. Microbiol. 2000, 77:387-398.
35. Whitlock, R.H., Sweeney, R.W., Fyock, T.L., Smith, J., 2005a. Map super-shedders: another factor in the control of Johne's disease. In: Nielsen, S.S. (Ed.), Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Copenhagen, Denmark, p. 42.
36. Whitlock, R.H., Widmann, M., Sweeney, R.W., Fyock, T.L., Benedictus, A., Mitchell, R.M., Schukken, Y.H., 2005b. Estimation of parameters on the vertical transmission of MAP in a low-prevalence dairy herd. In: Nielsen, S.S. (Ed.), Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
37. Whitlock, R.H., Mangold, B.L., McAdams, S., Fyock, T., Sweeney, R., Schukken, Y.H., Smith, J., Van Kessel, J., Hovingh, E., Karns, J., Wolfgang, D., Johnson, T., 2007. Real-time PCR testing of pooled(1:5) fecal samples comparison to HEYM culture. In: Proceedings of the 9th International Colloquium on Paratuberculosis, Japan.