The 2009 L'Aquila (Central Italy) seismic sequence as a chaotic process

Tectonophysics

Volumn 496, Issue 1-4, 2010, Pages 44-52

  De Santis, Angelo ^a   Cianchini, Gianfranco ^a   Qamili, Enkelejda ^a   Frepoli, Alberto ^a  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Accelerated Strain Release; Chaotic process; Nonlinear prediction; Phase space reconstruction; Seismic sequence

Indexed keywords

CHAOTIC PROCESS; NONLINEAR PREDICTION; PHASE SPACE RECONSTRUCTION; SEISMIC SEQUENCE; STRAIN RELEASE;

EXPONENTIAL FUNCTIONS; FORECASTING; PHASE SPACE METHODS; SEISMOLOGY; TIME SERIES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

NONLINEAR ANALYSIS;

CHAOTIC DYNAMICS; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE; FORESHOCK;

ABRUZZI; ITALY; L'AQUILA;

AQUILA;

EID: 78649688520     PISSN: 00401951     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2010.10.005     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Anzidei M., Boschi E., Cannelli V., Devoti R., Esposito A., Galvani A., Melini D., Pietrantonio G., Riguzzi F., Sepe V., Serpelloni E. Coseismic deformation of the destructive April 6, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (central Italy) from GPS data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L17307. 10.1029/2009GL039145.
2. Atzori S., Hunstad I., Chini M., Salvi S., Tolomei C., Bignami C., Stramondo S., Trasatti E., Antonioli A., Boschi E. Finite fault inversion of DInSAR coseismic displacement of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy). Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L15305. 10.1029/2009GL039293.
3. Bak P. How Nature Works - The Science of Self-organized Criticality 1996, Copernicus, Springer, Berlin.
4. Baranger M., Latora V., Rapisarda A. Time evolution of thermodynamic entropy for conservative and dissipative chaotic maps. Chaos Solitons Fractals 2002, 13:471-478.
5. Barraclough D.R., De Santis A. Some possible evidence for a chaotic geomagnetic field from observational data. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 1997, 99:207-220.
6. Beltrami H., Mareschal J.-C. Strange seismic attractor?. Pure Appl. Geophys. 1993, 141(1):71-81.
7. Benioff H. Seismic evidence for the fault origin of oceanic deeps. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 1949, 60:1837-1856.
8. Ben-Zion Y., Lyakhovsky V. Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquake faults. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2002, 159:2385-2412.
9. Bormann P. From earthquake prediction research to time-variable seismic hazard assessment applications. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2010, 10.1007/s00024-010-0114-0.
10. Bowman D.D., King G.C.P. Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2001, 28(21):4039-4042.
11. Bowman D.D., Ouillon G., Sammis C.G., Sornette A., Sornette D. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept. J. Geophys. Res. 1998, 103:24,359-24,372.
12. Brehm D.J., Braile L.W. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to-failure method in Southern California. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 1999, 89(1):275-293.
13. Bufe C.G., Varnes D.J. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay region. J. Geophys. Res. 1993, 98:9871-9883.
14. Bufe C.G., Nishenko S.P., Varnes D. Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska - Aleutian region. Pure Appl. Geophys. 1994, 142(1):83-99.
15. Chiarabba C., Jovane L., Di Stefano R. A new view of Italian seismicity using 20years of instrumental recordings. Tectonophysics 2005, 395:251-268.
16. W 6.3 earthquake: main shock and aftershocks. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L18308. 10.1029/2009GL039627.
17. Chouliaras G. Seismicity anomalies prior to the 13 December 2008, Ms=5.7 earthquake in Central Greece. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 9:501-506.
18. Cirella A., Piatanesi A., Cocco M., Tinti E., Scognamiglio L., Michelini A., Lomax A., Boschi E. Rupture history of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake from non-linear joint inversion of strong motion and GPS data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L19304. 10.1029/2009GL039795.
19. Console R. Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses. Tectonophysics 2001, 338:261-268.
20. Crampin S., Gao Yu. Earthquakes can be stress-forecast. Geophys. J. Int. 2010, 180:1124-1127.
21. De Santis A. Geosystemics. Proceedings of WSEAS Conference on Geology and Seismology GES '09, Feb. 2009 Cambridge 2009, 36-40.
22. De Santis A., Qamili E. Shannon information of the geomagnetic field for the past 7000years. Nonlinear Processes Geophys. 2010, 17:77-84.
23. De Santis A., Barraclough D.R., Tozzi R. Nonlinear variability of the recent geomagnetic field. Fractals 2002, 10:297-303.
24. Di Giovambattista R., Tyupkin Yu.S. An analysis of the process of acceleration of seismic energy emission in laboratory experiments on destruction of rocks and before strong earthquakes on Kamchatka and in Italy. Tectonophysics 2001, 338:339-351.
25. Di Giovambattista R., Tyupkin Yu.S. Seismicity patterns before the M=5.8 2002, Palermo (Italy) earthquake: seismic queiescence and accelerating seismicity. Tectonophysics 2004, 384:243-255.
26. Eckmann J.-P., Ruelle D. Ergodic theory of chaos and strange attractors. Rev. Mod. Phys. 1985, 57:617-656.
27. Farmer J.D., Siderovich J.J. Predicting chaotic time series. Phys. Rev. Lett. 1987, 59:845-848.
28. Geller R.J., Jackson D.D., Kagan Y.Y., Mulargia F. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science 1997, 275:1616-1623.
29. Greenhough J., Bell A.F., Main I.G. Comment on "Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes" by A. Mignan and R. Di Giovambattista. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L17303. 10.1029/2009GL039846.
30. Gross S., Rundle J. A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis. Geophys. J. Int. 1998, 133:57-64.
31. Gulzman S., Andersen J.V., Sornette D. Functional renormalization prediction of rupture. Comput. Seismol. 2001, 32:122-127.
32. Gutenberg B. The energy of earthquakes. Q. J. Geol. Soc. 1956, 12:1-14.
33. Hainzl S., Zöller G., Kurths J. Seismic quiescence as an indicator for large earthquakes in a system of self-organized criticality. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000, 27:597-600.
34. Hardebeck J., Felzer K.R., Michael A.J. Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:B08310.
35. Holliday J.R., Rundle J.B., Turcotte D.L., Klein W., Tiampo K.F., Donnellan A. Space-time clustering and correlations of major earthquakes. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2006, 97(238501):1-4.
36. Holliday J.R., Rundle J.B., Tiampo K.F., Turcotte D.L. Using earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times. Nonlinear Processes Geophys. 2006, 13:585-593.
37. Jaumè S.C., Sykes L.R. Evolving towards a critical point: a review of accelerating moment release prior to large and great earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 1999, 155:279-306.
38. Jiang C., Wu Z. Benioff strain release before earthquakes in China: accelerating or not?. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2006, 163:1965-1976.
39. King G.C.P., Bowman D.D. The evolution of regional seismicity between large earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108(B2):2096. 10.1029/2001JB000783.
40. Main I.G. Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Geophys. J. Int. 1999, 139:F1-F6.
41. Marquardt D. An algorithm for least-squares estimation of nonlinear parameters. SIAM 248. J. Appl. Math. 1963, 11:431-441.
42. Marsan D., Lengliné O. Extending earthquakes' reach through cascading. Science 2008, 319:1076-1079.
43. Marzocchi W. Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after the Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of earthquake occurrence modelling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales. Ann. Geophys. 2008, 51:405-416.
44. Matcharashvili T., Chelidze T., Janiashvili M. Identification of complex processes based on analysis of phase space structures. Imaging for Detection and Identification 2007, 207-241. Springer. J. Byrnes (Ed.).
45. Mignan A., Di Giovambattista R. Relationships between accelerating seismicity and quiescience, two precursors to large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, L15306. 10.1029/2008GL035024.
46. Mignan A., Di Giovambattista R. Reply to comment by J. Greenhough et al. on "Relationship between accelerating seismicity and quiescence, two precursors to large earthquakes". Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, L17304. 10.1029/2009GL039871.
47. Mignan A., King G.C.P., Bowman D. A mathematical formulation of accelerating moment release based on the stress accumulation model. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112:B07308.
48. Mulargia F. Retrospective selection bias (or the benefit of hindsight). Geophys. J. Int. 2001, 146:489-496.
49. Murru M., Console R., Falcone G. Real time forecasting in Italy. Tectonophysics 2008, 470:214-223.
50. Papadimitriou P. Identification of seismic precursors before large earthquakes: decelerating and accelerating seismic patterns. J. Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:B04306.
51. Papadopolulos G.A., Charalampakis M., Fokaefs A., Minadakis G. Strong foreshock signal preceding the L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw=6.3) of 6 April 2009. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2010, 10:19-24.
52. Papazachos C., Papazachos B. Precursory accelerated Benioff strain in the Aegean area. Ann. Geophys. 2001, 44:461-474.
53. Papazachos B.C., Karakaisis G.F., Scordilis E.M., Papazachos C.B., Panagiotopoulos D.G. Present patterns of decelerating-accelerating seismic strain in South Japan. J. Seismol. 2010, 14:273-288.
54. Pondrelli S., Salimbeni S., Morelli A., Ekström G., Olivieri M., Boschi E. Seismic moment tensors of the April 2009, L'Aquila (Central Italy), earthquake sequence. J. Int. 2010, 180:238-242.
55. Ramos O., Altshuler E., Màløy K.J. Avalanche prediction in self-organized pile of beads. Phys. Rev. Lett. 2009, 102:78701-78704.
56. Reasemberg P. Second-order moment of central California seismicity. 1969-1982. J. Geophys. Res. 1985, 90:5479-5495.
57. Rundle J.B., Klein W., Turcotte D.L., Malaud B.D. Precursory seismic activation and critical point phenomena. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2000, 157:2165-2182.
58. Sammis C.G., Bowman D.D. Competing Models for Accelerating Moment Release Before Large Earthquakes. 5th Annual ACES International Workshop 2006.
59. Sammis C.G., Bowman D.D., King G. Anomalous seismicity and accelerating moment release preceding the 2001 and 2002 earthquakes in Northern Baja California, Mexico. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2004, 161:2369-2378.
60. Schuster H.G. Deterministic Chaos 1995, VCH, Weinheim, 291 pp.
61. Smalley R.F., Turcotte D.L., Solla S.A. A renormalization group approach to the stick-slip behavior of faults. J. Geophys. Res. 1985, 90:1894-1900.
62. Sornette D. Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences 2006, Springer, Berlin. Second Ed.
63. Sornette D., Sammis C. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: implications for earthquake predictions. J. Phys. 1995, 5:607-619. I France.
64. Sornette A., Sornette D. Earthquake rupture as a critical point: consequences for telluric precursors. Tectonophysics 1990, 179:327-334.
65. Sugihara G., May R.M. Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series. Nature 1990, 344:734-741.
66. Takens F. Detecting strange attractors in turbulence. Lecture Notes in Mathematics, 898 1981, 366. Springer, Berlin. D.A. Rand, L.S. Young (Eds.).
67. Telesca L. Time-clustering of natural hazards. Nat. Hazards 2007, 40:593-601.
68. α fluctuations of seismic sequences. Fluctuations Noise Lett. 2002, 2:L357-L367.
69. Telesca L., Chen C.-C., Lee Y.-T. Scaling behaviour in temporal fluctuations of crustal seismicity in Taiwan. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2009, 9:2067-2071.
70. Tiampo K.F., Rundle J.B., Klein W., Holliday J., San Martins J.S., Ferguson C.D. Ergodicity in natural earthquake fault networks. Phys. Rev. E 2007, 75. 066107-1-16.
71. Tiwari R.K., Srilakschmi S., Rao K.N.N. Nature of earthquake dynamics in the central Himalayan region: a nonlinear forecasting approach. J. Geodyn. 2003, 35:273-287.
72. Turcotte D.R. Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics 1997, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge.
73. Turcotte D.R. Self-organized criticality: does it have anything to do with criticality and is it useful?. Nonlinear Processes Geophys. 2001, 8:193-196.
74. Tzanis A., Makropolous K. Did the 7/9/1999 M5.9 Athens Earthquake come with a warning?. Nat. Hazards 2002, 27:85-103.
75. Tzanis A., Vallianatos F. Distributed power-law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the SW Hellenic Arc. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2003, 3:179-195.
76. Varnes D.J. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity. Pure Appl. Geophys. 1989, 130(4):661-686.
77. Wales D.J. Calculating the rate of loss of information from chaotic time series by forecasting. Nature 1991, 350:485-488.
78. Walters R.J., Elliott J.R., D'Agostino N., England P.C., Hunstad I., Jackson J.A., Parsons B., Phillips R.J., Roberts G. The 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (central Italy): a source mechanism and implications for seismic hazard. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, L17312. 10.1029/2009GL039337.