Earthquakes cannot be predicted

Science

Volumn 275, Issue 5306, 1997, Pages 1616-1617

  Geller, Robert J ^a   Jackson, David D ^b   Kagan, Yan Y ^b   Mulargia, Francesco ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY; EARTHQUAKE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GEOLOGY; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW;

EID: 0030933585     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616     Document Type: Review

References (50)

1. See R. J. Geller, Astron. Geophys. 38, 16 (February/March 1997) for a compilation of pro-prediction items in the mass media. For past Perspectives, see C.-Y. King, N. Koizumi, Y. Kitagawa, Science 269, 38 (1995); J. Vidale, ibid. 271, 953 (1996); and P. G. Silver and H. Wakita, ibid. 273, 77 (1996). Supplementary discussion and supporting citations are available to subscribers to Science Online on the Web at http:// www.sciencemag.org/
2. See R. J. Geller, Astron. Geophys. 38, 16 (February/March 1997) for a compilation of pro-prediction items in the mass media. For past Perspectives, see C.-Y. King, N. Koizumi, Y. Kitagawa, Science 269, 38 (1995); J. Vidale, ibid. 271, 953 (1996); and P. G. Silver and H. Wakita, ibid. 273, 77 (1996). Supplementary discussion and supporting citations are available to subscribers to Science Online on the Web at http:// www.sciencemag.org/
3. See R. J. Geller, Astron. Geophys. 38, 16 (February/March 1997) for a compilation of pro-prediction items in the mass media. For past Perspectives, see C.-Y. King, N. Koizumi, Y. Kitagawa, Science 269, 38 (1995); J. Vidale, ibid. 271, 953 (1996); and P. G. Silver and H. Wakita, ibid. 273, 77 (1996). Supplementary discussion and supporting citations are available to subscribers to Science Online on the Web at http:// www.sciencemag.org/
4. See R. J. Geller, Astron. Geophys. 38, 16 (February/March 1997) for a compilation of pro-prediction items in the mass media. For past Perspectives, see C.-Y. King, N. Koizumi, Y. Kitagawa, Science 269, 38 (1995); J. Vidale, ibid. 271, 953 (1996); and P. G. Silver and H. Wakita, ibid. 273, 77 (1996). Supplementary discussion and supporting citations are available to subscribers to Science Online on the Web at http:// www.sciencemag.org/
5. There was intense optimism about prediction in the early to mid-1970s [C. H. Scholz, L. R. Sykes, Y. P. Aggarwal, Science 181, 803 (1973); F. Press, Sci. Am. 232, 14 (May 1975); "Forecast: Earthquake," Time 106, 38 (1 September 1975)], but this optimism was soon recognized to be unwarranted [R. A. Kerr, Science 200, 419 (1978); C. R. Allen, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S331 (1982)]. The fundamental flaw was that the prediction scenarios were not stated as testable hypotheses.
6. There was intense optimism about prediction in the early to mid-1970s [C. H. Scholz, L. R. Sykes, Y. P. Aggarwal, Science 181, 803 (1973); F. Press, Sci. Am. 232, 14 (May 1975); "Forecast: Earthquake," Time 106, 38 (1 September 1975)], but this optimism was soon recognized to be unwarranted [R. A. Kerr, Science 200, 419 (1978); C. R. Allen, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S331 (1982)]. The fundamental flaw was that the prediction scenarios were not stated as testable hypotheses.
7. There was intense optimism about prediction in the early to mid-1970s [C. H. Scholz, L. R. Sykes, Y. P. Aggarwal, Science 181, 803 (1973); F. Press, Sci. Am. 232, 14 (May 1975); "Forecast: Earthquake," Time 106, 38 (1 September 1975)], but this optimism was soon recognized to be unwarranted [R. A. Kerr, Science 200, 419 (1978); C. R. Allen, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S331 (1982)]. The fundamental flaw was that the prediction scenarios were not stated as testable hypotheses.
8. There was intense optimism about prediction in the early to mid-1970s [C. H. Scholz, L. R. Sykes, Y. P. Aggarwal, Science 181, 803 (1973); F. Press, Sci. Am. 232, 14 (May 1975); "Forecast: Earthquake," Time 106, 38 (1 September 1975)], but this optimism was soon recognized to be unwarranted [R. A. Kerr, Science 200, 419 (1978); C. R. Allen, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S331 (1982)]. The fundamental flaw was that the prediction scenarios were not stated as testable hypotheses.
9. There was intense optimism about prediction in the early to mid-1970s [C. H. Scholz, L. R. Sykes, Y. P. Aggarwal, Science 181, 803 (1973); F. Press, Sci. Am. 232, 14 (May 1975); "Forecast: Earthquake," Time 106, 38 (1 September 1975)], but this optimism was soon recognized to be unwarranted [R. A. Kerr, Science 200, 419 (1978); C. R. Allen, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, S331 (1982)]. The fundamental flaw was that the prediction scenarios were not stated as testable hypotheses.
10. H. O. Wood and B. Gutenberg, Science 82, 219 (1935); J. B. Macelwane, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 36, 1 (1946); C. F. Richter, Elementary Seismology (Freeman, San Francisco, 1958), pp. 385-387.
11. H. O. Wood and B. Gutenberg, Science 82, 219 (1935); J. B. Macelwane, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 36, 1 (1946); C. F. Richter, Elementary Seismology (Freeman, San Francisco, 1958), pp. 385-387.
12. H. O. Wood and B. Gutenberg, Science 82, 219 (1935); J. B. Macelwane, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 36, 1 (1946); C. F. Richter, Elementary Seismology (Freeman, San Francisco, 1958), pp. 385-387.
13. C. F. Richter, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 67, 1244 (1977).
14. Assessment of Schemes for Earthquake Prediction, meeting held 7-8 November 1996, London. See meeting reports by I. Main [Nature 385, 19 (1997)] and R. J. Geller [Eos 78, 63 (1997)].
15. Assessment of Schemes for Earthquake Prediction, meeting held 7-8 November 1996, London. See meeting reports by I. Main [Nature 385, 19 (1997)] and R. J. Geller [Eos 78, 63 (1997)].
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19. M. Otsuka, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 6, 311 (1972); J. Brune, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2195 (1979); P. Bak and C. Tang, ibid. 94, 15635 (1989); J. Mori and H. Kanamori, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 2437 (1996).
20. M. Otsuka, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 6, 311 (1972); J. Brune, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2195 (1979); P. Bak and C. Tang, ibid. 94, 15635 (1989); J. Mori and H. Kanamori, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 2437 (1996).
21. Y. Y. Kagan, Physica D77, 160 (1994).
22. I. Main, Rev. Geophys. 34, 433 (1996).
23. See M. Wyss, Ed., Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake Precursors (American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1991). For more about this evaluation, supplementary comments are available to subscribers to Science Online.
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25. I. Langmuir, Phys. Today 42, 36 (October 1989); P. W. Anderson, ibid. 43, 9 (December 1990); G. Taubes, Science 275, 148 (1997).
26. I. Langmuir, Phys. Today 42, 36 (October 1989); P. W. Anderson, ibid. 43, 9 (December 1990); G. Taubes, Science 275, 148 (1997).
27. I. Langmuir, Phys. Today 42, 36 (October 1989); P. W. Anderson, ibid. 43, 9 (December 1990); G. Taubes, Science 275, 148 (1997).
28. At the time, A. L. Hammond [Science 192, 538 (1976)] stated "...very few people were killed, although more than 1 million live near the epicenter, because the earthquake was predicted and the population evacuated - the first known instance of a major quake successfully predicted and disaster prevented or mitigated on such a scale," and D. Davies [Nature 258, 286 (1975)] stated "There was enormous damage - a town of 100,000 is being completely rebuilt - but few fatalities."
29. At the time, A. L. Hammond [Science 192, 538 (1976)] stated "...very few people were killed, although more than 1 million live near the epicenter, because the earthquake was predicted and the population evacuated - the first known instance of a major quake successfully predicted and disaster prevented or mitigated on such a scale," and D. Davies [Nature 258, 286 (1975)] stated "There was enormous damage - a town of 100,000 is being completely rebuilt - but few fatalities."
30. Y.-D. Quan, The Haicheng, Liaoning Province, Earthquake of M7.3 of 4 February 1975, in Earthquake Cases in China, Z.-C. Zhang, Ed. (State Seismological Bureau Publication in Chinese, Seismological Press, Beijing, 1988), pp. 189-210. In some cases, disasters in China during the Cultural Revolution were concealed. As many as 230,000 people died in the collapse of two dams in southern China in August 1975, but this tragedy was only revealed 20 years later ["China: History warns," The Economist, 30 (25 February 1995)].
31. Y.-D. Quan, The Haicheng, Liaoning Province, Earthquake of M7.3 of 4 February 1975, in Earthquake Cases in China, Z.-C. Zhang, Ed. (State Seismological Bureau Publication in Chinese, Seismological Press, Beijing, 1988), pp. 189-210. In some cases, disasters in China during the Cultural Revolution were concealed. As many as 230,000 people died in the collapse of two dams in southern China in August 1975, but this tragedy was only revealed 20 years later ["China: History warns," The Economist, 30 (25 February 1995)].
32. C. B. Raleigh et al., Eos 58, 236 (1977); see also R. D. Adams, Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 4, 423 (1976).
33. C. B. Raleigh et al., Eos 58, 236 (1977); see also R. D. Adams, Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 4, 423 (1976).
34. P. Varotsos et al., in A Critical Review of VAN, J. Lighthill, Ed. (World Scientific, Singapore, 1996), pp. 29-76
35. R. J. Geller, ibid., pp. 155-238.
36. F. Mulargia and P. Gasperini, Geophys. J. Int. 111, 32 (1992); Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1433 (1996).
37. F. Mulargia and P. Gasperini, Geophys. J. Int. 111, 32 (1992); Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1433 (1996).
38. S. Gruszow et al., ibid., p. 2025.
39. "Debate on Evaluation of the VAN Method," ibid., p. 1291.
40. P. W. Anderson, Phys. Today 45, 9 (January 1992).
41. Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 13685 (1994); D. D. Jackson et al., Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 379 (1995); I. Main, ibid., p. 1299.
42. Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 13685 (1994); D. D. Jackson et al., Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 379 (1995); I. Main, ibid., p. 1299.
43. Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 13685 (1994); D. D. Jackson et al., Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 85, 379 (1995); I. Main, ibid., p. 1299.
44. Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 3943 (1995)], F. Mulargia and P. Gasperini [Geophys. J. Int. 120, 453 (1995)] and Y. Y. Kagan [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 86, 274 (1996)] question the models invoked to justify long-term predictions. Supplementary discussion is available to subscribers to Science Online.
45. Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 3943 (1995)], F. Mulargia and P. Gasperini [Geophys. J. Int. 120, 453 (1995)] and Y. Y. Kagan [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 86, 274 (1996)] question the models invoked to justify long-term predictions. Supplementary discussion is available to subscribers to Science Online.
46. Y. Y. Kagan and D. D. Jackson [J. Geophys. Res. 100, 3943 (1995)], F. Mulargia and P. Gasperini [Geophys. J. Int. 120, 453 (1995)] and Y. Y. Kagan [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 86, 274 (1996)] question the models invoked to justify long-term predictions. Supplementary discussion is available to subscribers to Science Online.
47. A. M. Dziewonski, G. Ekström, M. P. Salganik, Phys. Earth Planet Inter. 97, 3 (1996).
48. R. E. Abercrombie, Tectonophysics 261, 1 (1996); _ and J. N. Brune, Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 1647 (1994).
49. R. E. Abercrombie, Tectonophysics 261, 1 (1996); _ and J. N. Brune, Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 1647 (1994).
50. We thank S. Stein for valuable comments.