An observational test of the critical earthquake concept

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Volumn 103, Issue 10, 1998, Pages 24359-24372

  Bowman, D D ^a   Ouillon, G ^b,c,d   Sammis, C G ^a   Sornette, A ^b,d   Sornette, D ^b,c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITÉ CÔTE D'AZUR   (France)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d CNRS   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CRITICAL STATE; EARTHQUAKE MECHANISM; PHASE TRANSITION; SEISMICITY;

EID: 0001314570     PISSN: 21699313     EISSN: 21699356     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/98jb00792     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Allègre, C.J., and J.L. Le Mouel, Introduction of scaling techniques in brittle failure of rocks, Phys. Earth Planet Inter., 87, 85-93, 1994.
2. Allègre, C.J., J.L. Le Mouel, and A. Provost, Scaling rules in rock fracture and possible implications for earthquake predictions Nature, 297, 47-49, 1982.
3. Andersen, J.V., D. Sornette and K.-T. Leung, Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder, Phys. Rev. Lett. 78, 2140-2143, 1997.
4. Andrews, D.J., From antimoment to moment: Plane-strain models of earthquakes that stop, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 65, 163-182, 1975.
5. Bak, P., and C. Tang, Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 15635-15637, 1989.
6. Bufe, C.G., and D.J. Varnes, Predictive modelling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 9871-9883, 1993.
7. Bufe, C.G., S.P. Nishenko, and D.J. Varnes, Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region, Pure Appl. Geophys., 142, 83-99, 1994.
8. Chelidze, T.L., Percolation and fracture, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 28, 93-101, 1982.
9. Dobrovolsky, I.R., S.I. Zubkov and V.I. Miachkin, Estimation of the size of earthquake preparation zones, Pure Appl. Geophys. 117, 1025-1044, 1979.
10. Ellsworth, W.L., A.G. Lindh, W.H. Prescott, and D.J. Herd, The 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the seismic cycle, in Earthquake Prediction: An International Review, Maurice Ewing Ser., vol. 4, edited by D.W. Simpson, and P.G. Richards, pp. 126-140, AGU, Washington, D. C., 1981.
11. Gelfand, I.M., S.A. Guberman, V.I. Keilis-Borok, L. Knopoff, F. Press, I.Y. Ranzman, I.M. Rotwain and A.M. Sadovsky, Pattern recognition applied to earthquake epicenters in California, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 11, 227-283, 1976.
12. Geller, R.J., D.D. Jackson, Y.Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, Earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science, 275, 1616-1617, 1997.
13. Graham, R.L., and J.H. Spencer, Ramsey theory, Sci. Am., 263, 112-117, July 1990.
14. Graham, R.L., B.L. Rothschild, and J.H. Spencer, Ramsey Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, New York, 1990.
15. Grasso, J.R., and D. Sornette, Testing self-organized criticality by induced seìsmicity, J. Geophys. Res., n press , 1998.
16. Harris, R.A. and R.W. Simpson, In the shadow of 1857 - the effect of the great Ft. Tejon earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 229-232, 1996.
17. Herrmann, H.J. and S. Roux, eds., Statistical Models for the Fracture of Disordered Media, 353pp., Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1990.
18. Hirata, T., Fractal dimension of fault systems in Japan: Fractal structure in rock fracture geometry at various scales, Pure Appl. Geophys., 131, 157-170, 1989.
19. Huang, Y., H. Saleur, C. G. Sammis, D. Sornette, Precursors, after-shocks, criticality and self-organized criticality, Europhys. Lett., 41, 43-48, 1998.
20. Ito K. and M. Matsuzaki, Earthquakes as self-organized critical phenomena, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 6853-6860, 1990.
21. Jones, L.M., Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the Landers earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 892-899, 1994.
22. Jones, L.M. and E. Hauksson, The seismic cycle in southern California; Precursor or response?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 469-472, 1997.
23. Jones, L.M., and P. Molnar, Some characteristics of foreshocks and their possible relationship to earthquake prediction and premonitory slip on faults, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 3596-3608, 1979.
24. Kanamori, H., and D.L. Anderson, Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 65, 1073-1095, 1975.
25. Keilis-Borok. V., The lithosphere of the Earth as a large nonlinear system, in Quo Vadimus: Geophysics for the Next Generation, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 60, edited by G. D. Garland, and J. R. Apel, pp. 81-84, AGU, Washington, D. C., 1990.
26. Keilis-Borok, V.I. and V.G. Kossobokov, Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83, 1990.
27. Keilis-Borok, V.I., L. Knopoff, I.M. Rotwain, and C.R. Allen, Intermediate-term prediction of occucrrence times of strong earthquakes, Nature, 335, 690-694, 1988.
28. King, G.C.P., Speculations on the geometry of the initiation and termination processes of earthquake rupture and its relation lo morphology and geological structure, Pure Appl. Geophys., 124, 567-585, 1986.
29. King, G.C.P., R.S. Stein, and J.B. Rundle, The growth of geological structures by repeated earthquakes, 1, Conceptual framework, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 13307-13318, 1988.
30. Knopoff, L., T. Levshina, V.I. Keilis-Borok, and C. Mattoni, Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 5779-5796, 1996.
31. Lamaignère, L., F. Carmona and D. Sornette, Experimental realization of critical thermal fuse rupture, Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 2738-2741, 1996.
32. Lindh, A.G., The seismic cycle pursued, Nature, 348, 580-581, 1990.
33. Main, I., Long odds on prediction, Nature, 385, 19-20, 1997.
34. Mogi, K., Some features of recent seismic activity in and near Japan, 2, Activity before and after great earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, 47, 395-417, 1969.
35. Ouillon, G., B. Castaing and D. Sornette, Hierarchical scaling of faulting, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 5477-5487, 1996.
36. Raleigh, C.B., K. Sieh, L.R. Sykes, and D.L. Anderson, Forecasting southern California earthquakes, Science, 217, 1097-1104, 1982.
37. Robertson, M.C., C.G. Sammis, M. Sahimi, and A.J. Martin, Fractal analysis of three-dimensional spatial distributions of earthquakes with a percolation interpretation, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 609-620, 1995.
38. Rundle, J.B., A physical model for earthquakes, 1, Fluctuations and interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6237-6254, 1988a.
39. Rundle, J.B., A physical model for earthquakes, 2. Application to southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6255-6274, 1988b.
40. Rundle, J.B., Derivation of the complete Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency relation using the principle of scale invariance, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 12,337-12,342, 1989a.
41. Rundle, J.B., A physical model for earthquakes: 3, Thermodynamical approach and its relation to nonclassical theories of nucleation, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 2839-2855, 1989b.
42. Saleur, H., C.G. Sammis, and D. Sornette, Discrete scale invariance, complex fractal dimensions, and log-periodic fluctuations in seismicity, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 17,661-17,677, 1996a.
43. Saleur, H., C.G. Sammis, and D. Sornette, Renormalization group theory of earthquakes, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 3, 102-109, 1996b.
44. Sammis, C.G., D. Sornette, and H. Saleur, Complexity and earthquake forecasting, in Reduction and Predictability of Natural Disasters,SFI Studies in the Sciences of Complexity,vol. XXV, edited by J.B. Rundle, W. Klein, and D.L. Turcotte, pp. 143-156, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., 1996.
45. Scholtz C.H., Earthquakes and Faulting: self-organized critical phenomena with characteristic dimension : in Spontaneous formation of space-time structures and criticality, edited by T. Riste and D. Sherrington, pp. 41-56, Kluwer Acad., Norwell, Mass., 1991.
46. Smalley, R.F., D.L. Turcotte, and S.A. Solla, A renormalization group approach to the stick-slip behavior of faults, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 1894-1900, 1985.
47. Sornette, A. and D. Sornette, Self-organized criticality and earthquakes, Europhys.Lett., 9, 197, 1989.
48. Sornette, A., and D. Sornette, Earthquake rupture as a critical point: Consequences for telluric precursors, Tectonophysics, 179, 327-334, 1990.
49. Sornette D., Self-organized criticality in plate tectonics, in Spontaneous formation of space-time structures and criticality, edited by T. Riste and D. Sherrington, pp. 57-106, Kluwer Acad., Norwell, Mass., 1991.
50. Sornette, D., and C.G. Sammis, Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: lmplicalions for earthquake predictions, J. Phys. I, 5, 607-619, 1995.
51. Sornette, D., C. Vanneste, and L. Knopoff, Statistical model of earthquake foreshoeks, Phys.Rev.A, 45, 8351-8357, 1992.
52. Sornette, D., L. Knopoff, Y. Y. Kagan, and C. Vanneste, Rank-ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the distribution of large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 13,883-13,893, 1996.
53. Sykes, L.R., and S. Jaumé, Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. Nature, 348, 595-599, 1990.
54. Tocher, D., Seismic history of the San Francisco region, in San Francisco Earthquakes of 1957, edited by G.B. Oakeshott, CDMG Spec. Rep. 57, pp. 39-48, Calif. Div. of Mines and Geol., Sacramento, 1959.
55. Triep, E.G., and L.R. Sykes, Frequency of occurrence of moderate to great earthquakes in intracontinental regions: Implications for changes in stress, earthquake prediction, and hazards assessments, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 9923-9948, 1997.
56. Turcotte, D.L., A fractal model for crustal deformation, Tectonophysics, 132, 261-269, 1986.
57. Vanneste, C. and D. Sornette, Dynamics of rupture in thermal fuse models, J.Phys.I Fr. 2, 1621-1644, 1992.
58. b=4.8 earthquake on 1980 February 14 near the Virgin Islands, Geophys. J. Int., 124, 149-158, 1996.
59. Wilson, K.G., Problems in physics with many scales of length, Sci. Am. 241, (2), 140-157, 1979.