Present patterns of decelerating-accelerating seismic strain in South Japan

Journal of Seismology

Volumn 14, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 273-288

  Papazachos, B C ^a   Karakaisis, G F ^a   Scordilis, E M ^a   Papazachos, C B ^a   Panagiotopoulos, D G ^a  

^a ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI   (Greece)

Author keywords

Accelerating seismic strain; Decelerating seismic strain; Earthquake prediction; Japan

Indexed keywords

ACCELERATION; EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; ESTIMATION METHOD; FORESHOCK;

JAPAN;

EID: 77952887186     PISSN: 13834649     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10950-009-9165-z     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. Allègre CJ, Le Mouël JL (1994) Introduction of scaling techniques in brittle failure of rocks. Phys Earth Planet Inter 87: 85-93. doi: 10. 1016/0031-9201(94)90023-X.
2. Andersen JV, Sornette D, Leung KT (1997) Tri-critical behavior in rupture induced by disorder. Phys Rev Lett 78: 2140-2143. doi: 10. 1103/PhysRevLett. 78. 2140.
3. Ben-Zion Y, Lyakhovsky V (2002) Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquake faults. Pure Appl Geophys 159: 2385-2412. doi: 10. 1007/s00024-002-8740-9.
4. Ben-Zion Y, Dahmen K, Lyakhovsky V, Ertas D, Agnon A (1999) Self-driven mode switching of earthquake activity on a fault system. Earth Planet Sci Lett 172: 11-21. doi: 10. 1016/S0012-821X(99)00187-9.
5. Ben-Zion Y, Eneva M, Liu Y (2003) Large earthquake cycles and intermittent criticality on heterogeneous faults due to evolving stress and seismicity. J Geophys Res 108: 2307. doi: 10. 1029/2002JB002121.
6. Bowman DD, King GC (2001) Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes. Geophys Res Lett 28: 4039-4042. doi: 10. 1029/2001GL013022.
7. Bowman DD, Sammis CG (2004) Intermittent criticality and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. Pure Appl Geophys 161: 1945-1956. doi: 10. 1007/s00024-004-2541-z.
8. Bowman DD, Quillon G, Sammis CG, Sornette A, Sornette D (1998) An observational test of the critical earthquake concept. J Geophys Res 103: 24359-24372. doi: 10. 1029/98JB00792.
9. Brehm DJ, Braile LW (1999) Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to-failure method in southern California. Bull Seismol Soc Am 89: 275-293.
10. Bufe CG, Varnes DJ (1993) Predictive modeling of seismic cycle of the Great San Francisco Bay Region. J Geophys Res 98: 9871-9883. doi: 10. 1029/93JB00357.
11. Du W, Sykes LR (2001) Changes in frequency of moderate-size earthquakes and Coulomb failure stress before and after the Landers, California, earthquake of 1992. Bull Seismol Soc Am 91: 725-738. doi: 10. 1785/0120000224.
12. Enescu B, Ito K (2001) Some premonitory phenomena of the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake: seismicity, b-value and fractal dimension. Tectonophysics 338: 297-314. doi: 10. 1016/S0040-1951(01)00085-3.
13. Evison FF (2001) Long-range synoptic earthquake forecasting: an aim for the millennium. Tectonophysics 333: 207-215. doi: 10. 1016/S0040-1951(01)00076-2.
14. Evison FF, Rhoades DA (1997) The precursory earthquake swarm in New Zealand. N Z J Geol Geophys 40: 537-547.
15. Guarino AS, Ciliberto S, Garcimartin A (1999) Failure time and microcrack nucleation. Europhys Lett 47: 456-461. doi: 10. 1209/epl/i1999-00409-9.
16. Hardebeck JL, Felzer KR, Michael AJ (2008) Improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant. J Geophys Res 113: B08310. doi: 10. 1029/2007JB005410.
17. Harvard Seismology (HRVD) (2007) CMT catalogue. Available at http://www. seismology. harvard. edu/CMTsearch. html.
18. International Seismological Centre (ISC) (2007) On-line bulletin. Thatcham, UK. Available at http://www. isc. ac. uk/Bull.
19. Jaumé SC (2000) Changes in earthquake size-frequency distributions underlying accelerating seismic moment/energe release. In: Rundle JB, Turcotte DL, Klein W (eds) Physics of earthquakes. AGU, Washington, DC, pp 199-210.
20. Jaumé SC, Sykes LR (1999) Evolving towards a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release rate prior to large and great earthquakes. Pure Appl Geophys 155: 279-306. doi: 10. 1007/s000240050266.
21. Jaumé SC, Bebbington MS (2004) Accelerating seismic release form a self-correcting stochastic model. J Geophys Res 109. doi: 10. 1029/2003JB002867.
22. Jaumé SC, Weatherley D, Mora P (2000) Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models. Pure Appl Geophys 157: 2209-2226. doi: 10. 1007/PL00001081.
23. Karakaisis GF, Savvaidis AS, Papazachos CB (2003) Time variation of parameters related to the accelerating preshock crustal deformation in the Aegean area. Pure Appl Geophys 160: 1479-1491. doi: 10. 1007/s00024-003-2356-6.
24. Karakaisis GF, Papazachos CB, Panagiotopoulos DG, Scordilis EM, Papazachos BC (2007) Space distribution of preshocks. Boll Geof Teor Appl 48: 371-383.
25. Karakaisis GF, Scordilis EM, Papazachos CB (2009). Frequency-Magnitude variations of accelerating and decelerating preshocks, (in preparation).
26. Kato N, Ohtake M, Hirasawa T (1997) Possible mechanism of precursory seismic quiescence: regional stress relaxation due to preseismic sliding. Pure Appl Geophys 150: 249-267. doi: 10. 1007/s000240050075.
27. King GC, Bowman DD (2003) The evolution of regional seismicity between large earthquakes. J Geophys Res 108. doi: 10. 1029/2001JB000783.
28. Knopoff L, Levshina T, Keilis-Borok VJ, Mattoni C (1996) Increase long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California. J Geophys Res 101: 5779-5796. doi: 10. 1029/95JB03730.
29. Lamaignère L, Carmona F, Sornette D (1996) Experimental realization of critical thermal fuse rupture. Phys Rev Lett 77: 2738-2741. doi: 10. 1103/PhysRevLett. 77. 2738.
30. Mignan A (2008a) The Stress Accumulation Model: accelerating moment release and seismic hazard. Adv Geophys 49: 67-191.
31. Mignan A (2008b) Non-Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Theory (NC PAST) and limits of the power-law fit methodology. Tectonophysics 452: 42-50. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2008. 02. 010.
32. Mignan A, Bowman DD, King GC (2006) An observational test of the origin of accelerating moment release before large earthquakes. J Geophys Res. doi: 10. 1029/2006JB004374.
33. Mignan A, King GCP, Bowman DD (2007) A mathematical formulation of accelerating moment release based on the Stress Accumulation Model. J Geophys Res 112. doi: 10. 1029/2006JB004671.
34. Mogi K (1962) On the time distribution of aftershocks accompanying the recent major earthquakes in and near Japan. Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo 40: 107-124.
35. Mogi K (1969) Some features of the recent seismic activity in and near Japan II. Activity before and after great earthquakes. Bull Earthq Res Inst Univ Tokyo 47: 395-417.
36. Mora P, Place D (1999) Accelerating energy release prior to large events in simulated earthquake cycles: implications for earthquake forecasting. In: 1st ACES Workshop Proceedings, 31 January-5 February 1999, Brisbane and Noosa, Queensland, Australia, pp 513-519.
37. Nanjo KZ, Holliday JR, Chen CC, Rundle JB, Turcotte DL (2006) Application of a modified pattern informatics to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan. Tectonophysics 424: 351-366. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2006. 03. 043.
38. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) (2007) On-line bulletin, USGS/NEIC (PDE) 1973-present. Available at http://neic. usgs. gov/.
39. Papazachos BC (1974a) On certain foreshock and aftershock parameters in the area of Greece. Ann Geofis 27: 497-515.
40. Papazachos BC (1974b) On the time distribution of aftershocks and foreshocks in the area of Greece. Pure Appl Geophys 112: 627-631. doi: 10. 1007/BF00877298.
41. Papazachos BC, Papazachou CB (1997) Earthquakes of Greece. Ziti, Thessaloniki, pp 304.
42. Papazachos CB, Papazachos BC (2001) Precursory accelerating Benioff strain in the Aegean area. Ann Geofis 144: 461-474.
43. Papazachos CB, Karakaisis GF, Savvaidis AS, Papazachos BC (2002) Accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the southern Aegean area. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92: 570-580. doi: 10. 1785/0120000223.
44. Papazachos CB, Scordilis EM, Karakaisis GF, Papazachos BC (2004) Decelerating preshock seismic deformation in fault regions during critical periods. Bull Geol Soc Greece 36: 1490-1498.
45. Papazachos CB, Karakaisis GF, Scordilis EM, Papazachos BC (2005) Global observational properties of the critical earthquake model. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95: 1841-1855. doi: 10. 1785/0120040181.
46. Papazachos CB, Karakaisis GF, Scordilis EM, Papazachos BC (2006) New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release. Tectonophysics 423: 83-96. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2006. 03. 004.
47. w = 6. 9 Cythera earthquake in southwestern Aegean. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97: 347-352. doi: 10. 1785/0120060075.
48. Rhoades DA, Evison FF (2006) The EEPAS forecasting model and the probability of moderate-to-large earthquakes in central Japan. Tectonophysics 417: 119-130. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2005. 05. 051.
49. Rundle JB, Klein W, Gross S (1996) Dynamics of a traveling density wave model for earthquakes. Phys Rev Lett 76: 4285-4288. doi: 10. 1103/PhysRevLett. 76. 4285.
50. Rundle JB, Klein W, Gross S (1999) Physical basis for statistical patterns in complex earthquake populations: models, predictions and tests. Pure Appl Geophys 155: 575-607. doi: 10. 1007/s000240050278.
51. Rundle JB, Klein W, Turcotte DL, Malamud BD (2000) Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena. Pure Appl Geophys 157: 2165-2182. doi: 10. 1007/PL00001079.
52. Sammis CG, Bowman DD, King GCP (2004) Anomalous seismicity and accelerating moment release preceding the 2001 and 2002 earthquakes in northern Baja California, Mexico. Pure Appl Geophys 161: 2369-2378. doi: 10. 1007/s00024-004-2569-3.
53. Scholz CH (1988) Mechanism of seismic quiescences. Pure Appl Geophys 26: 701-718. doi: 10. 1007/BF00879016.
54. w. Meeting on Earthquake Monitoring and Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Balkan Countries, NATO ARW, Borovetz, Bulgaria, 11-17 September, pp 158-161.
55. b to moment magnitude. J Seismol 10: 225-236. doi: 10. 1007/s10950-006-9012-4.
56. Scordilis EM, Papazachos CB, Karakaisis GF, Karakostas VG (2004) Accelerating seismic crustal deformation before strong mainshocks in Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction. J Seismol 8: 57-70. doi: 10. 1023/B: JOSE. 0000009504. 69449. 48.
57. Scordilis EM, Papazachos CB, Karakaisis GF, Papazachos BC (2007) A catalogue of earthquakes in central Asia for the period 1901-2007. Publ. Geoph. Laboratory, University of Thessaloniki.
58. Sornette A, Sornette D (1990) Earthquake rupture as a critical point. Consequences for telluric precursors. Tectonophysics 179: 327-334. doi: 10. 1016/0040-1951(90)90298-M.
59. Sornette D, Sammis CG (1995) Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: implications for earthquake predictions. J Phys I 5: 607-619. doi: 10. 1051/jp1: 1995154.
60. Sykes LR, Jaumé S (1990) Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. Nature 348: 595-599. doi: 10. 1038/348595a0.
61. Tocher D (1959) Seismic history of the San Francisco bay region. Calif Div Mines Spec Rep 57: 39-48.
62. Triep EG, Sykes LR (1997) Frequency of occurrence of moderate to great earthquakes in intracontinental regions: implications for changes in stress, earthquake prediction, and hazard assessment. J Geophys Res 102: 9923-9948. doi: 10. 1029/96JB03900.
63. Tzanis A, Vallianatos F, Makropoulos K (2000) Seismic and electrical precursors to the 17-1-1983, M = 7 Kefallinia earthquake, Greece, signatures of a SOC system. Phys Chem Earth A 25: 281-287.
64. Vanneste C, Sornette D (1992) Dynamics of rupture in thermal fuse models. J Phys I 2: 1621-1644. doi: 10. 1051/jp1: 1992231.
65. Wessel P, Smith W (1995) New version of the generic mapping tools released. EOS Trans. AGU 76: 329.
66. Wyss M, Habermann RE (1988) Precursory seismic quiescence. Pure Appl Geophys 126: 319-332. doi: 10. 1007/BF00879001.
67. Wyss M, Klein F, Johnston AC (1981) Precursors of the Kalapana M = 7. 2 earthquake. J Geophys Res 86: 3881-3900. doi: 10. 1029/JB086iB05p03881.
68. Zöller G, Hainzl S (2002) A systematic spatiotemporal test of the critical point hypothesis for large earthquakes. Geophys Res Lett 29: 1558-1561. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL014856.
69. Zöller G, Hainzl S, Kurths J, Zschau J (2002) A systematic test on precursory seismic quiescence in Armenia. Nat Hazards 26: 245-263. doi: 10. 1023/A: 1015685006180.
70. Zöller G, Hainzl S, Ben-Zion Y, Holschneider M (2006) Earthquake activity related to seismic cycles in a model for a heterogeneous strike-slip fault. Tectonophysics 423: 137-145. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2006. 03. 007.